The man in my basement takes one step closer every week. [Part 13]
I - II - III - IV - V - VI - VII - VIII - IX - X - XI - XII - XIII - XIV — He will begin in the furthest corner of your basement. — Paul was right about one thing: Psych wards aren't like the movies, at least this one wasn't. If anything, it felt more like a nursing home. Boring. Assisted living with cameras and security guards. No electroshock therapy. No drawn-out talks with stoic shrinks. No evil head nurse. The movies got one thing right though: isolation. Especially for the first few days. I was in hysterics, strapped to a bed, screaming about the man in the basement. Screaming about how sleeping away from home would only make him stronger. Give him more influence. Of course, I knew this behavior didn't exactly help my case for appearing sane. But when you're staring down the barrel of a gun, none of that really matters. Regardless, I calmed myself down after a few days. A steady cocktail of Seroquel and benzos might've helped too. Now, I had only one goal: Appear sane enough to get discharged. Get back home and hopefully salvage this disastrous transgression. Maybe the intruder would give me some leeway since my being here was involuntary. Wishful thinking. I guess there's one other thing the movies get right. The more you try to appear sane, the more insane you appear. It's not easy to pretend things are normal when you believe an ever-more powerful hivemind/ tulpa/ whatever the fuck is trying to absorb you into itself. But… I put up a decent show. To be honest, getting stuck in a psych ward is the last place I expected to be. Before this, it seemed like everything was leading up to some vast and terrible revelation, like I'd finally get the answers to all my questions. A final, horrific revelation connecting all the pieces together. But now... I was stuck in a borderline nursing home, putting together cat puzzles and playing Uno with strangers. Not exactly the finale I had in mind. The anti-climax of it all was suspect, to say the least. I was still waiting for the hammer to drop. To wake up in my room and see a coat-rack in the corner. — Getting forced into a psych ward changed my view on a lot of things. There was one guy in there; he had OCD so bad he needed seven cups of water on his bedside table at all times. Each cup needed to be slightly fuller than the last, but he also needed to drink from the third, fourth, and seventh cups every fourteen minutes. Then, pace around the psych ward three times. If he broke the ritual, he was convinced a man made out of paper would climb in through the vents and cut him in half. Shit like that might've seemed funny to me before, in a morbid kind of way, but after seeing it first hand, after living through it myself. Let's just say I don't look at homeless people rambling to themselves on the street the same way I did before. It's easy to make fun of things that make you uncomfortable. It's not so easy when you're the one going through hell. Paul came to visit too. Or at least, he tried; I didn't sign off the first few times. As far as I was concerned: Paul wasn't Paul. The real Paul was trapped back in his house, barely alive, strapped to a hospital bed, and burnt up almost beyond recognition. A prisoner in his own home. Mitch even showed up once too, but I refused him as well. Mitch wasn't Mitch either. Mitch was dead. A mangled heap of skin on his kitchen floor. Worst of all, I don't think either of them was even aware of it. But I believed that they believed they were actually themselves. Unwitting duplicates. Paul kept trying, showing up every other day. He even covered all my hospital bills out of his own pocket. (I was borderline broke, so that was appreciated.) Out of curiosity more than anything else, I finally gave in. I finally signed off on Paul's visit. We sat down in the common area. Imagine a low-income high-school lunchroom. Round tables covered in half-finished puzzles. Cold vinyl floors with flecks of milky gray. An older woman stood by the window; Rosa was her name. Every ten minutes or so, Rosa would call out for the nurse. When the nurse showed up, she'd ask them for the time. They'd tell her the time, and she'd thank them. Rinse and repeat that for the last three hours straight. After a while, you start to tune out stuff like that. Everything becomes background noise eventually. Finally, the doors pushed open, and in walked Paul. Our eyes met. He smiled sadly. Strode across the room, pulled out a rickety chair, and sat down across from me, "How've you been?" I shrugged. He nodded, and pulled a brown envelope out from his jacket. He placed it flat down on the table and slid it towards me, "That's not gonna answer everything, but it might help some." Skeptical, I reached into the envelope and pulled out a stack of documents — papers, photos, ID cards. Paul cleared his throat, "That's everything I could find on my friend in the guest room. Full warning, some of it's a little graphic." I scanned the first paper: Hospital records, detailing a man named Lawrence Weiser. A photo: A man laying on a gurney in the Vietnam jungle covered in full-body chemical burns. I flipped to the next page: Military legal papers, giving Paul the right to shelter and look after Lawrence Weiser. Clearance to 'monitor and treat complications sustained due to long-term effects of a wartime injury.' I flipped to the next page. A photo of Paul, much younger, was paper-clipped to the corner, his arm wrapped over another man's shoulder, about the same age. Both of them looked so much alike; they could've been brothers. I kept flipping, more documents, more photos, ID's, birth certificates. If they were fake, Paul would've spent a lot of time and money making them. Maybe the intruder created them out of thin air... I turned the page. More photos of Paul; He was setting up a hospital bed in his house's spare bedroom, military personnel helping out. I put the papers down and looked at him, "and...?" Paul scratched his neck, "I know it barely answers anything. But at least it clears up one thing." I set the documents on top of the envelope and slid it back across to Paul. "…I drove to Mitch's apartment, forty minutes out of town, saw a fucking fetus monster climb out his mouth, then I ran down the hallway and ended up in your basement… Hell, I'm pretty sure my car's still parked out at Mitch's. And you're saying it's in my head?" Paul nodded understandingly, looked back over his shoulder, making sure nobody was in earshot, "It's not in your head," he said, turning back to face me, "It's only partially in your head. This thing's got a foot in the door between reality and nothing, and if you let it, it'll push that door all the way open and never go back." I scoffed, "Why all the runarounds? Why the stupid fucking rules?" Paul leaned back into his chair, "Mitch and I have different ideas on how to fix it. I figured accepting it's there and living life regardless is the best route. Mitch thinks that's what it wants you to do... Truth is probably somewhere in the middle." "Why'd you say I could pass it off then?" Paul looked at me, genuinely confused. "In the park," I continued, "you said I could build a bunker door, pass it off to somebody else." "In the park...?" I looked at him in disbelief. Did he forget? "I- I honestly don't know what you're talking about," said Paul. He seemed sincere. But I'd been fooled more than enough by now. "In the park, you told me this long, drawn-out fucking story about how you fell in between these boulders, saw a man down between the rocks. Told me the intruder dug a tunnel between the houses." "A tunnel?" "You're serious?" "Look, Brandon… I don't know who you talked to, but it wasn't me... But that doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is you focus on moving past all this. Focus on getting better. The stronger you are, the healthier your mind is, the less power this has over you. Like I said before, once I stopped drinking, started caring for people close to me, all the crazy shit started going away. Things still happen, don't get me wrong, but I can deal with it now. You learn to cope." "How do I know you're even you?" "You don't. Shit… I don't. But that doesn't matter either. I'm here, I exist. You exist. Work with what you know." I didn't respond. "How long've you been away from home now?" "Two… three weeks..." "Has anything happened? Has the intruder shown up here? Have you died?" I didn't answer, but I caught the point. "This doesn't make any sense," I said, leaning forward, resting my arms on the table. "That's the point. This thing preys off confusion, addiction, fear, repression… trauma. The more fucked up you are, the better a time it has." I mulled it over, still not convinced. "Has the doctor helped?" Paul continued, "The meds...?" I gave a reluctant nod. As much as I hated to admit it, things didn't feel as crazy as they used to. I felt calmer. More stable. But like I said before, this was all too easy: uncomfortably anti-climactic. "…The night before I went to your house, I swerved, almost hit a bear. I smashed into a roadside post and cracked my head on the driver's side window… I saw things, experienced things. I saw you, driving, looking out through your eyes." Paul nodded, as if expecting the point to be raised, "I'm not gonna say it wasn't real. But it's only little snippets of moments, crumbs of conspiracy. Just enough to create a narrative in your head that may or may not be real. Enough to keep obsessed. Enough to-" "-I saw you. Driving drunk. You swerved into somebody on a green-bike. Hit and run. It... seemed like you tried to cover it up..." Paul looked at me with deadly serious eyes, "I'd kill myself before trying to cover up something like that," he said, with brutal conviction, "Now, I'm not saying it didn't happen. But it didn't happen in this world, and it didn't happen to me. Whatever that's worth." "…Sure…" I said, still not fully satisfied. "Nurse?!" Rosa by the window, called out again. The staff was ignoring her now. "NURSE!?" Paul looked around, expecting someone to help. "She just keeps asking the time," I said. Paul pulled up his sleeve and checked the time on his watch, "Five-fifty-eight in the afternoon," he said, smiling warmly towards her. Rosa looked at Paul like he was an angel sent from above, "…Thank you." Paul nodded and turned back to me. More silence. I cleared my throat, "You and Mitch talkin' again?". Paul shook his head, no. "He was just worried about you, is all." "Still thinks you're possessed?" "Something like that," Paul rubbed his jaw, "…I mean, it's not just that, though. I was a shit father too..." I nodded, "You remind me of my old man sometimes." "Shit father too, huh?" I almost laughed, "Nah, he was alright." "…Where's he now?" "Dead." "Ah. Sorry." "It's okay." "What got him?" "Lung cancer." "Same thing that got my dad, in the liver though." A strange calm came over me, something I hadn't felt since before this nightmare began. A feeling that maybe, despite all its misery, life was worth sticking around for. At least a little while longer. If for nothing else, just to see what happens. We talked about Howie too. Paul said Howie always struck him as weird, even before the intruder. Maybe he was a servant of the intruder. Maybe he was an unwitting vessel, controlled by the intruder to spy on new 'recruits.' Maybe he was just a weird guy who really liked the color green and crossword puzzles. Maybe some things were better left alone. A bell RANG out through the PA system, "Dinner will now be served in the cafeteria. Please line up on the marks, maintaining a six-foot distance from one another." Paul hit the table gently with his fist, "Well. I'll stop buggin' you now." I forced a smile. Paul stood up, "I'm not asking you to trust me blindly here, but if you got the patience. I'd love to swing by and visit every so often. Don't got much else going on anyways." "…Sure." I said, still skeptical. Even though I didn't trust Paul, or anyone else for that matter, I had to admit, his presence made me feel a little less crazy. A little less alone. Besides, any visitor, even a potential vessel of the intruder, was preferable to no visitors at all. "Take it easy kid," he smiled again, then strode back for the exit and pushed through the doors. — Paul stopped by every single day for the next two weeks. We played cards, talked about hockey, politics. Sometimes we'd talk about the intruder too, but less and less every day. Paul eventually brought me somewhat around, convinced me to work with the doctors, "What've you got to lose anyways?" A fair point. Paul told me to tell the doctors what they needed to hear. Tell them I acknowledge it was all in my head, even if we both knew that wasn't entirely true. Say what I needed to say to get out, but don't rush things. Only leave when I felt ready to. — Reality is a spectrum. Things in the realm of thought and emotion don't exist or not exist in a binary state. Belief leads to real actions, terrible and beautiful. Just look at religion. I'm not a believer myself, but it's pretty staggering the simultaneous beauty and horror created by mythic ideologies. True or not, sometimes it feels like belief itself has more effect on the real world than anything else. I don't know. Maybe the intruder worked in a similar way. Molding itself out of belief, obsession, trauma, forcing itself out of the abstract into the concrete, like a virus of the mind. Who knows. — Paul was there the day before my discharge. The doctors had determined I was stable enough to return to public life. I still felt like shit, but now in a normal constant haze of vague depression and anxiety kind of way as opposed to a supernatural entity is trying to kill me kind of way. Paul and I played crib in the common area. Best out of three. He won, as usual. Stretching out his arms, Paul checked the time, "Well, I should head out," he said, partially yawning. "I'll swing by tomorrow, give you a ride home." "Sure… Thanks Paul." "No worries kid. — Paul drove me home the next day. We pulled into my driveway, and sure enough, there sat my car. Inexplicably back in its spot, no longer in front of Mitch's apartment. I opened my mouth to ask about it, but stopped myself short. Better leave well enough alone. "So what's next for Brandon?" he adjusted the rearview mirror as he spoke. I shrugged, "Probably gonna move upstate to be honest." "Yeah? I don't blame you." "I haven't checked my email in a while, but… pretty sure I'm jobless by now. That kind of just fell off the map." Paul chuckled, "Fair enough. Is that a bad thing though?" "I mean… not really. Wasn't really my favorite job anyway." "What're you gonna do now?" "I don't know. Maybe I'll go back to school. Maybe I'll start writing again." "You write?" "I used to." "And you enjoyed that?" "Yeah." "Why'd you stop?" "No money." "Well, if you move, sell the place, that might give you a bit of a cushion, huh?" "Sure." "I'm not saying what you should do Brandon, but if you like writing, then at least try for it. If you like something else, shoot for that. It's better than not trying. Trust me. I learned that the hard way," "Yeah, maybe," I said, mulling it over. Looking back, this conversation, like many others, was a little strange, but I didn't think much of it at the time. "Anyways, I'll get out of your hair now," said Paul. Silence. I reached for the door and stopped. "…Thanks Paul," I said, looking back at him. It's hard to know what to say to someone who might've saved your life. "You owe me one," he said, cracking a smile. I smiled back, turned away, and unlatched the door. I stepped out, went to close it and- "-Oh, one other thing," I froze, pulled the door back open, hunched down to meet his eyes. "I know you're planning to move anyways, but…" Paul shifted in his seat slightly, "It's probably better we keep minimal contact from here on out. Same goes for Mitch. I'm not sure why, but this thing seems to feed off us being around each other." I nodded, stepped away, pushed the door shut, and turned back for my house. Paul pulled into reverse, backed across the street, and pulled into his garage. To this day, I don't know if that was even Paul, the intruder, or something in between. All I know is he helped me get back on my feet. So I'm grateful for that. I rifled for my keys and... something caught the corner of my eye. Down the street, parked about seven houses away: A white hatchback with tinted windows. The same car I'd seen all those weeks ago. I don't know why it grabbed my attention, but it did. It felt out of place, sinister almost.... ...I shrugged it off, turned away, and opened the door. The smell of cooking hit me. Chicken soup, gravy, and mashed potatoes. Howie humming to himself. I pulled the door shut behind me, and was greeted with a bright green, brand new: basement door. "You like it?" Howie's voice shot down the hallway. I turned. His bald head peeked out from the kitchen. "Yeah, Howie it's… it's great." I lied. Howie smiled brightly and stepped out into the hallway, "Works picking up again, so it's from my own pocket. The least I could do for you letting me stay here." "Thanks Howie." "… How've you been? Mitch's dad sort of filled me in a little. And he's apparently not dead? His kid told me otherwise... Some people are so weird, huh?" "...Crazy's catching," I said. "Huh?" "Nothing." "-Oh, I got something." Howie slipped back into the kitchen and reappeared on the other side, this time with a crossword book in hand. "Nine words, third letter T, last letter M… A naturally occurring yellow blackish liquid found in geological formations below the earth's surface." I furrowed my brow. The word was on the tip of my tongue, but I couldn't quite place it. Howie looked at me, eyes filling with anticipation. I shrugged again, "Beats me." His eyes filled with disappointment. "I'll let you know if it comes to me." "Sure… sure… no problem," Howie slumped back into the kitchen and placed down the booklet. He looked like I just told him his dog died or something. — I moved out the next week. Howie offered to stay, pay rent with his newfound income. I agreed. I never did find out exactly what made him leave his old place, but he never brought it up, so I didn't ask. — I moved upstate, rented a small studio apartment in a mountain town. Still can't sleep in places with basements, but you can't really blame me on that one. Got back into writing hard too. Started taking online courses, watching youtube tutorials, stuff like that. Got my craft to a place where I'm not entirely embarrassed to share it. Weirdly, all these events actually inspired me to start writing again. Of course, all the loose ends, all the unanswered questions still bothered me. Something just felt too convenient about the last few weeks. Like I'd gotten out of the woods too easy. Like the hand of an invisible, and benevolent god stepped in and waved away all my problems. Deus ex machina. But sometimes, I wondered if the intruder was still using me. Working towards some unknown and terrifying endgame; An endgame that would reveal itself at any moment. Vague anxiety once again lingered beneath everything. Like a constant, rising, shepard tone. Sometimes barely audible, sometimes unbearably loud. I did what I could to put it out of my mind, to focus on other things. Not pushing it away, just being aware that it's there, and gently choosing to focus elsewhere. I'm learning to live with it. Learning to accept the unknowable. I'll admit one thing though: coat-racks still freak me the fuck out. Despite all my progress, there was something else I couldn't shake. One question that kept me up nights. What happened to Zack? Was it really what the police said? Just some long-haul semi-truck driver in the night. A terrible accident? But what about the visions of Paul, drunk driving, hitting somebody on a green bike? What about the intruder's mimicry murder of Zack? Pleading and apologizing. What about the- -I stopped myself from spiraling. These questions stuck in the back of my head like splinters of wood stuck between fingers. But even here, I'm learning to live with it. — About six weeks ago, I decided to look up Zack's mother. Just to call her and see how she was doing; See if she was even still alive. It took a bit of work, but I found her. She lived in a care-home down in Georgia. I called her on a Wednesday night. "Hello?" she said, her voice sounding almost how I remembered, despite all the years between. "Mrs. Serrano?" "Speaking." "Hi… uhm… I'm not sure if you'll remember me or not, but this is …Brandon Miller-" "Brandon?" her voice filled with recognition. "Yeah, that's me." "Oh, it's so nice to hear from you! How have you been? It's been so long..." "...I'm doing alright." We made small talk for a while, talked about the town I grew up in. Talked about the pandemic. The craziness of the upcoming election. Then, the conversation took an unexpected turn: "How's your father doing?" she asked. "Oh, he passed away quite a few years back now." "Oh, I'm sorry." "It's okay, I've accepted it now." "Yeah…. I've mostly done the same with Zack. But it still hurts. That never goes away. But you learn to live with it." I didn't say anything; I was lost for words. Silence hung in the air until- "-You know Zack always had trouble making friends before you." "…I didn't know that." Zack always struck me as effortlessly charismatic. "He was a bit of an odd duck, but in a good way. Before we moved, none of the other kids ever really clicked with him. But with you? Inseparable." "Huh. Yeah, I was the same way." "How's that?" "Not good at making friends." "Mmm." More silence. "I remember his passing hit you really hard," she said, "You didn't speak for months. Your father was terribly worried about you." "Yeah… I'm doing better now thankfully." "That's good to hear. I'm sure the closure helped too. It helped me." "…closure?" "What?" "What closure?" "...You didn't hear?" "Hear what?" "…A driver. Long-haul teamster, came forward a couple years back. All those years back... he was sleep-deprived, running a cross-state shipment when…" she trailed off, the tragedy spoke from the silence. She took a breath and continued, "This driver, he grew overwhelmed with guilt, came forward two years back to confess. I met with him too. A kind soul, really. A sensitive soul. Wrong person. Wrong place. A terrible mistake." "…Where's he now?" "…He… took his own life a few months back. Poor soul. Neighbors found him in a basement corner." The words 'basement corner' hit me like a concrete wall. Was this connected to the intruder? Was this connected to Paul? Nightmarish thoughts and incomprehensible images raced through my mind. The image of a naked body, pale and decomposing, slumped into a basement corner, a plastic bag wrapped over it's head- "-You there?" said Mrs. Serrano. I stopped myself, took a deep breath. Set it aside. Don't worry about it. It's a coincidence. "I hope his family is okay," I said. "Me as well." Threads of conspiracy dangled in front of me like fishing lures. This had to be connected to the intruder somehow, it had to be connected to the rules- "-What's his name?" I asked, almost involuntarily. "Hmm? "The driver." "Oh... Uh, Mason... Mason Parker I believe." "...Huh." I didn't recognize it. Awkward silence. "…Well, it's been lovely hearing from you Brandon, but games night is about to start and I can't be late." "Of course. You as well Mrs. Serrano." "Take care of yourself, call anytime. Okay?" "Okay." She ended the call. I sat at my work desk. The glow of car lights beamed in through the window and swiped across the darkened walls. Raindrop shadows stretched across the room and returned into darkness. I took another deep breath. Exhaled. Doing my best to stay grounded. Using a trick I learned from Paul: Three by four. Name three things you can see: Bookshelf. White wall. Brown desk. Name three things you can hear: Rain against the window, tires against the road outside, neighbors footsteps up above. Name three things you can feel: The back of my legs against the seat, the warmth of the heater against my shins, the brush of my shirt as I breathe in and out. Name three things you can smell: coffee, gasoline, burnt hair- - overwhelming terror pushed up from the floor, into my toes, through my legs, my spine, into my head. A sickening upward swell of chemical dread. A feeling that something truly heinous... something truly evil, yet emotionless beyond human-understanding was standing behind me. I imagined arms: impossibly long, stretching from the shadows across the room, unnaturally large hands, fingers with extra joints, reaching for the scruff of my neck. Eager to pull me down through the floor, down through the ground, down through the dirt, beneath the surface of reality itself. Trapping me below an invisible barrier, suffocating me under water with impenetrable surface tension. Forcing me to watch, gasping for air as the world above moved on without me. The world above acted as if I never even existed to begin with. Eternal suffering. I spun around, expecting to see something incomprehensible. But there was nothing. No Intruder. No coat-rack. No man held together with nails and wire. Just an empty studio apartment. The orange glow of more headlights wiped across: Slow and yawing light crawling over the kitchen, over the front door, over me. Like the beams of a deep-water submarine scanning the ocean floor. Everything returned to moonlit darkness. Against the window drapes - a faint, greenish and flickering glow from a neon bar-sign across the street. I sniffed the air. The smell of gasoline and burnt hair was gone. Maybe it was never there to begin with. I took another deep breath and exhaled. It's all in my head. Or, at the very least: it's mostly in my head. But still, the words only rang partially true. If I'd learned anything over the past few months, it was this: nothing good comes easy. At least, not this easy. As much as I tried to repress it, as much I tried to ignore it. I knew something was missing. There was some piece of the puzzle that may, or may not, ever be found. I knew this wasn't finished. I took a deep breath. Exhaled. I turned back to my desk, popped open my laptop- -and started writing. — — — Polterkites Part XIV .-. . -- . -- -... . .-. . -.. .-.-.-
[English Football] When does a club become a franchise? The story of Wimbledon FC's relocation
The first five episodes covered Nottingham Forest's 21st century woes, the dickpic that consigned Notts County to the non-league, a reignited rivalry between Derby County and Leeds United, Stoke City's legendary shithouse era, and the English Golden Generation of the 00s descending into farce. This instalment will cover one of the biggest dramas of 21st century English football as it discusses Wimbledon FC's relocation from Southwest London to Milton Keynes where the club became renamed the MK Dons. It will throw up one question through it all, when does a club stop being a club? The Crazy Gang Wimbledon FC saw one of the most meteoric rises to the top flight in English football history during the 1980s. A small non-league club in Southwest London who only joined the Football League in 1977, they rose through the divisions during the 1980s and became an established top flight side. Back to back promotions in 1983 and 1984 put Wimbledon in the Second Division, which they then gained promotion from in 1986. Just nine years after entering the Football League and four years after leaving the Fourth Division, Wimbledon were a top flight club. Central to this was the 'Crazy Gang'. Known for their laddish and macho personas, the Crazy Gang played aggressively on the pitch and carried out constant practical jokes both amongst themselves and against manager Dave Bassett off the pitch. Prominent members of the Crazy Gang included John Fashanu and Dennis Wise who both cultivated reputations as hardmen of the game, although it would be none other than B-movie actor Vinnie Jones who came to epitomise Wimbledon the most when he joined them in 1986. He would later provide football with one of its most enduring images and later, after being punished by the FA for poor discipline, claimed they should thank him for taking violence off the terraces and onto the pitch. Their cohesion and boisterous camaraderie, encouraged by Bassett and the Wimbledon hierarchy, made them imposing opponents on the pitch, but many criticised a cynical and 'dirty' playing style. Brian Clough, who while being no stranger to football's dark arts opposed 'long ball' football on aesthetic grounds, was talking about Wimbledon when he said that if God wanted football to be played in the air, there would be grass in the sky. Wimbledon revelled in the reputation, with Bassett's successor as manager Bobby Gould later explaining his two priorities were a goalkeeper who could punt the ball 90 yards and a big physical striker to get it in the final 10. Despite widespread expectation that shithouse football would get found out in the First Division, Wimbledon comfortably stayed up, and would stay up for the next 14 years. What is more, a cup run in 1988 brought them to a final against Liverpool, one of the dominant forces in English football. Liverpool had won the League title and were respected for their flamboyant and creative playing style on the pitch, and so many expected them to sweep aside a pub team from South London with no virtues other than their physicality. In the end, Wimbledon won 1-0 in a tense final including a Liverpool penalty saved by Dave Beasant, who became the first goalkeeper to ever save an FA Cup final penalty. The famous pundit brought Wimbledon's nickname to the national fore when he proclaimed that 'Crazy Gang have beaten the Culture Club'. Financial Difficulties Wimbledon remained a small fish in a big pond. They stayed up and became founding members of the Premiership in 1992, using astute transfer sales to keep the team afloat. Unfortunately coming changes in English football would put paid to all this. One of the financial issues involved the deed of ownership to the ground, Plough Lane. The deed stated the land could only be used for sporting or recreational purposes and in the event of the club no longer using it, the local council would have the right to buy it at significantly below market rate. This made the ground virtually worthless for securing loans against, which was a way for the club to raise funds. And funds would be needed. After the Hillsborough Disaster of 1989, in which a combination of poor policing and unsafe infrastructure at Hillsborough in Sheffield led to the deaths of 96 Liverpool supporters at an FA Cup semi-final tie against Nottingham Forest, wholesale changes came into the game to ensure that this disaster would not be repeated and that grounds could be made safe for supporters. The following year the Taylor Report required that all clubs in England's top two divisions play at all-seater stadia by 1994. Plough Lane was a fairly small site and there was no way that Wimbledon could convert it into an all-seater stadium without bankrupting themselves, even with the financial assistance on offer. The only option was to build a new ground, other clubs such as Sunderland and Derby County would later do this. Wimbledon had received planning permission in 1988 for a 20,000 seat stadium, but a political change of leadership at the local council meant this permission was rescinded by 1990. As a supposedly temporary arrangement pending the construction of a suitable new home, Wimbledon began a groundsharing arrangement with neighbours Crystal Palace to start in the 1991-92 season. Both teams would play senior home games at Palace's Selhurst Park with reserve and youth teams playing at Plough Lane. Wimbledon FC's last ever home game at Plough Lane was on the 4 May 1991, with a 3-0 coincidentally against Crystal Palace. Was the arrangement temporary? Was it fuck. Wimbledon would play at Selhurst Park until 2003. Relocation: the Ireland Option By 1992 Wimbledon was heavily losing money owing to the increased cost of playing in the new Premiership. They also desperately sought a return to their home patch. Unfortunately their Chairman, Sam Hammam, was incensed by what he saw as the council's failure to help. A local greyhound racing track had proposed a joint 15,000 seat football and dog racing complex, which Wimbledon sought to fund by selling Plough Lane for commercial development. Merton Borough Council sought, as per the land deed to the ground, to keep the ground as an area for sport and recreation. Hammam threatened to remove all symbols of the Borough from the club's badge and rename the club in the face of all this, a sign of things to come. In 1994 Wimbledon's Irish manager Joe Kinnear hit a solution. Wimbledon FC could relocate to Dublin, giving the Republic of Ireland a major football club. His proposal to friends in Ireland gained some backing by a consortium who proposed a ground location and to provide London-based Wimbledon fans with subsidised flights to Dublin for the first couple of years. What did Irish football fans think of this attempt by the 'old enemy' to muscle in? Well, actually, they appeared rather supportive. Ireland's domestic football league was and is a largely semi-professional affair with many Irish supporters choosing to support English clubs, Liverpool in particular being known for a large Irish fanbase. A Dublin club playing in the English Premiership meant big-name clubs playing in Ireland often enough for their Irish fanbases to watch them live. At the time, it was widely believed that a 'European Super League' was inevitable (familiar?) and that a Dublin club would ensure Irish representation in the venture. What did the Football Association of Ireland think? They were rather less keen. The largely semi-professional League of Ireland was a decidedly parochial affair compared to the English leagues. It was bad enough that virtually all talented Irish players plied their trade in England and Scotland, but having a Premiership club actually in Ireland would cripple any hope of domestic talent development and possibly kill attendances at League of Ireland matches. Football is a less developed sport in the Republic than Rugby Union or the Gaelic sports such as Gaelic Football or Hurling. and they genuinely felt the proposal would kill off the rest of the domestic game. Of course, the proposals went down like cold sick in South London. Fans presciently threatened that they would rather set up a non league club than support a relocated Wimbledon. This was a strong showing for a club with a fanbase which had largely 'defected' to Wimbledon from other London clubs, attracted by lower ticket prices and a generally safer environment. Whatever Vinnie Jones did on the pitch, Plough Lane's terraces were less violent than those of Chelsea or Millwall. But it shows the depth of feeling that a club cannot leave its community and remain the same club. The Football Association of Ireland held its line and vetoed Wimbledon coming to Dublin, even with vast amounts of money promised for the Irish game and its clubs. Frustrated by the lack of progress, Sam Hammam sold the majority of the club to a pair of Norwegian businessmen in 1997 before selling the rest of his shares and ending his involvement in 2000. Relocation, Relocation Hammam remained involved in the club after 1997 and was fixated by the prospect of relocation. Merton Borough Council had angered him, and he seemingly wanted nothing more to do with them. But was there a precedent? In English football, there was no real precedent of a club leaving the urban area it was based in. Clubs moving to new grounds in the same town or city was normal enough, but the closest to a relocation was in 1930 when South Shields FC of the 3rd Division moved 8 miles up the Tyne to become Gateshead AFC. But even this was not a wholesale relocation from the locality, the club remained on Tyneside. Scotland had a better precedent. The Scottish Football League was a closed shop until the 1990s with clubs entering or leaving the league being a rare event. Stifled by bigger clubs in Glasgow and Edinburgh, two clubs made the leap in the 1990s. Clyde FC moved in 1994 from Glasgow to the commuter town of Cumbernauld, hoping to attract a local fanbase which was swallowed in Glasgow by the 'gruesome twosome' of Celtic and Rangers. Meadowbank Thistle moved out of Edinburgh in 1995 to become Livingston FC, renaming the club after their new home. It was the renaming that seemed to really irk Meadowbank fans above all, the idea that a club could have its whole identity changed when it was financially worthwhile to do so. So as Hammam continued to explore relocation options, one proposal came through. In 2000 a property developer called Pete Winkelman set up the 'Milton Keynes Stadium Consortium' which sought to build a 30,000 seat sports stadium along with an Asda supermarket and an Ikea furniture shop to the south of Milton Keynes in Buckinghamshire, around 60 miles from Plough Lane. The New Town Milton Keynes is Britain's most prominent example of a planned town. During the widespread slum clearances of the 1960s, when cities across Britain sought to demolish often-squalid Victorian slum houses in inner-city areas, a set of 'New Towns' were designated both to provide housing for those leaving inner city areas and to act as models for the future. Milton Keynes in North Buckinghamshire was a small village roughly equidistant between London and Birmingham, sitting near the main railway line which connects Britain's four largest conurbations (the West Coast Mainline, which connects London and Glasgow via Birmingham and the Northwest). A few decades later, it would be a town of 200,000, making it the fastest growing town in the country through the late 20th century. It was built according to what people thought the future would need in the 1960s, being built around the car in a way no British city has been before or since. It was home to the Open University, arguably one of the great achievements of Harold Wilson's forward-thinking government of 1964-70. But what didn't it have? It was almost certainly the largest town in England with no representation in a professional sports league. A local club played in the South Midlands League , four divisions below the Football League. Not wanting to wait for this club to climb slowly up the ladder as Wimbledon once had, what did Winkelman want to do? He wanted to bring in a club already in the Football League. Winkelman was certain that Milton Keynes was a 'football frenzy waiting to happen' owing to its large population thus far deprived of league football. Detractors pointed out the central flaw, not only was Milton Keynes within 25 miles of three Football League clubs (Luton, Northampton Town, Rushden & Diamonds), like much of the Southeast football supporters tended to follow London clubs with many travelling into London every Saturday to watch their club. Milton Keynes was largely populated by those who moved out of London and to a lesser extent Birmingham, and they still supported their 'old' clubs. First he approached Luton Town, the nearest club, about a relocation. Luton had long sought to leave their dilapidated Kenilworth Road ground (which they still play at and is nearly legendary amongst football fans for its shithole qualities, notably accessing the away end through a staircase which goes over people's gardens) with a 1980s plan to move out of town falling through. In 2000 the Football Association ruled that no club could leave its home area, a decision welcomed by Luton Town supporters. Laying the Groundwork Another club in dire straits was West London's Queens Park Rangers. Winkelman offered the board a package including retaining the club name and colours and allowing the London fans representation on the board. QPR had been in talks with Wimbledon about a merger, but they still rejected it out of hand. Better to go under in West London than survive in Buckinghamshire. By this time, Wimbledon had a Charles Koppel as chairman. Koppel was largely disinterested in football and failed to appreciate the ties between club and community. He was interested in Winkelman's proposal to use the club as part of a wider commercial development as a way to get out of financial oblivion. In 2001, it became clear that Koppel had agreed to Winkelman's proposals to relocate the club wholesale. Supporters were furious, especially given Koppel's previous attempts to merge Wimbledon and QPR. It goes to the Football Association* The FA rejected Koppel and Winkelman's plans out of hand in August 2001. It simply flew in the face of what football was all about, and they had previously set a precedent indicating that a club could not leave the wider area of the town or city it was affiliated to. Koppel appealed, arguing the blocking of the move was unlawful. In January 2002 an appeal panel agreed with him. The FA's opposition was apparently grounded in an inflexible policy which had no fair legal backing. The appeal succeeded, and the panel recommended an independent arbitration panel make the decision. The panel sat in May 2002. They heard evidence from a plethora of bodies. The FA argued that it would set a precedent which would 'drive a coach and horses' through the league system and open the door to a franchising model where a club's ties to the community are beholden to the wishes of owners and investors. Koppel argued that Wimbledon had lacked a South London home for 10 years, that relatively few of Wimbledon's c. 3,500 season ticket holders were from the Merton Borough area, and that a failure to relocate would mean the club going out of business. Kris Stewart, who represented Wimbledon fans, expressed the widely held view that there was no meaningful difference to them between liquidation and relocation. Both would kill the club, and both would make the supporters set up a new club. The panel agreed to allow the relocation given 'exceptional circumstances'. Franchise FC The 2002-03 season was a highly acrimonious affair. Supporters established a 'phoenix club', AFC Wimbledon, which was accepted into the Combined Counties League, in the 9th tier of English football. They recruited players via an open trial held in a public park and initially shared a ground with Kingstonian, another non-league club. Meanwhile, Wimbledon FC played their last season at Selhurst Park pending the relocation. At their first match against Kent side Gillingham AFC Wimbledon fans picketed the home end, referring to those who went in to watch Wimbledon FC as 'Scabs'. For a game with an attendance of 2,476, Gillingham had brought 1,808 from the Medway meaning that Wimbledon FC's new attendance was in the low hundreds. Meanwhile, AFC Wimbledon played a fundraising friendly against Kingstonian and had 3,000 fans turn up. Commentators across football praised the community spirit of AFC Wimbledon, whose supporters had a real anger towards Franchise FC. Later in 2002, a game against Rotherham saw Wimbledon FC set a record for the worst attendance at a postwar game in the top two divisions of English football, with just 849 spectators including about 200 away fans from South Yorkshire and another 200 free tickets given out to youth players and their families. Administration Winkelman had never sought to own Wimbledon FC. He hoped to bring them to his development but was not interested in outright owning the club. In June 2003 the Norwegian ownership pulled out of the club, sending it spiralling towards financial oblivion and liquidation. Winkelman, desperate to secure the club's move, paid the wages of the players while ensuring an interim ground was available before his stadium was finished. He eventually ended up buying the club to ensure the deal went through. Wimbledon FC's first season playing in Milton Keynes was not a success on the pitch as they were relegated into the third tier. At the game which confirmed their relegation against Sunderland, half of the 4,800 spectators were Sunderland supporters. Sunderland were and are a well supported club known for taking big away followings, but this represented the failure of Wimbledon FC to attract big crowds in Milton Keynes. It was only an improvement on the final season at Selhurst Park. MK Dons As part of the financial agreement with the Norwegian owners at the end of the 2003-04 season, Winkelman ended up renaming Wimbledon FC to the 'MK Dons'. They controversially kept the old 'Dons' nickname from Wimbledon, and claimed to be the heir to the 1988 FA Cup honour. Winkelman bullishly claimed in a football magazine in 2004 that AFC Wimbledon supporters had abandoned their club before it left London and had abdicated the right to the honour. This did not necessary help things at a time when the Football Supporter's Federation was urging supporters to boycott away games at MK Dons and refusing admittance to the nascent supporter's association at MK Dons. In the end, in 2006, Winkelman and the FSA agreed a compromise. The FSA would end the boycott and admit MK Dons supporters as members, but Winkelman apologised for the hurt the relocation had caused. Crucially, MK Dons renounced any pre-2004 history and all their ties to Wimbledon FC and its heritage. They gave these rights to Merton Borough Council, who promptly displayed the 1988 FA Cup in a local library. A Return to the League While MK Dons tottered along largely in England's 3rd tier, AFC Wimbledon were fast catching up. A rapid series of promotions saw them back in the Football League for the 2011-12 season. They still played at Kingsmeadow, which had expanded with their fortunes. Things took an ironic turn before the 2016-17 season. AFC Wimbledon were promoted into League One, English football's 3rd tier, while MK Dons ended their first (and thus far only) season in the Championship by being relegated back into League One. Although they had played an FA Cup tie in 2012, the two clubs would now meet in the League. For many this was an indicator of MK Dons' relative stagnation on the pitch compared to the sudden rise of AFC Wimbledon. For AFC Wimbledon fans, it represented reclaiming a league place 'taken' from them. When the two sides played, AFC Wimbledon incurred the wrath of the English Football League by refusing to use MK Dons' full name. They referred to them in the programme, on PA announcements, and online, just as 'Milton Keynes'. Threatened with charges, AFC Wimbledon eventually used the full name of MK Dons in future meetings. This scuffle showed the sense of ownership that Wimbledon fans felt towards not just their history, colours, and the 1988 FA Cup, but also towards their nicknames. They resented MK Dons adopting 'Dons' in the club's formal title, and MK Dons fans who used the term 'Wombles' to describe themselves, another nickname associated with the club. The story took yet another ironic turn. AFC Wimbledon have been in League One since 2016 and generally at the lower end, but MK Dons had a stint in League Two during the 2018-19 season meant that for that year, the phoenix club was in a higher division than the club's legal successor. MK Dons bounced back and now both clubs are together again in League One. Legacy What makes a club a club? Certainly Winkelman regretted his deal even if it kept Wimbledon FC the legal entity from liquidation. In the end, the footballing world generally accepted AFC Wimbledon, a legally distinct entity set up by Wimbledon fans, as the rightful successor to Wimbledon FC. MK Dons were forced to surrender claims to Wimbledon's history, colours, and honours, even if they kept the 'Dons' nickname. Franchising may work in other countries and sports, but culturally it remains beyond the pale in English football and the experiences of MK Dons will likely reinforce this. The sorry story shows that, even as we consider a club a manifestation of its community, they are still vulnerable to the actions of poor ownership and can cease to exist because of it. Next up on Football Drama, we take a trip north to consider another case of what happens when a club is liquidated with a deep dive into Rangers FC's liquidation and resurrection.
Are you allowed to just explore the state game lands?
About the closest thing to off-roading and overlanding here in PA other than some of the state forests is the PA state game lands. Is it legal to drive around on the trails in the state game lands? I couldn't really find any info online other than some rules regarding ATVs and hiking. Any info should be appreciated!
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Si vous avez acquis votre produit Microsoft au CANADA, la garantie limitée suivante vous concerne : GARANTIE LIMITÉE Microsoft garantit que le Produit fonctionnera conformément aux documents qui l’accompagnent pendant une période de 90 jours suivant la date de réception. Si une garantie ou condition implicite est créée par votre État ou votre territoire et qu’une loi fédérale, provinciale ou étatique en interdit le déni, vous jouissez également d’une garantie ou condition implicite, MAIS UNIQUEMENT POUR LES DÉFAUTS DÉCOUVERTS DURANT LA PÉRIODE DE LA PRÉSENTE GARANTIE LIMITÉE (QUATRE-VINGT-DIX JOURS). IL N’Y A AUCUNE GARANTIE OU CONDITION DE QUELQUE NATURE QUE CE SOIT QUANT AUX DÉFAUTS DÉCOUVERTS APRÈS CETTE PÉRIODE DE QUATREVINGT-DIX JOURS. Certains États ou territoires ne permettent pas de limiter la durée d’une garantie ou condition implicite de sorte que la limitation cidessus peut ne pas s’appliquer à vous. 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In an attempt to keep up with *everything* - I have compiled all stories, responses, and community takes from the past week into one thread
For many people, this week has been very hard - for many reasons. One of those reasons is keeping up with every single response and story and allegation and defense and reaction and community take. With that in mind, I am doing my best to amass it all into a single place that we can keep updated. I am a human who needs sleep and I have definitely missed some things, so I’ll put a comment for people to reply with additional links to anything that has been left out. The idea of this is to highlight the overall discussion rather than focus on individuals, but also give individuals their right to their stories and statements. And help all of us follow everything. In general, a message from the moderators:“All stories deserve to be heard, without backlash.
Each case should be viewed individually.
Free discussion should be allowed and encouraged, but only when the participants join the discussion in good faith.
We can’t allow personal attacks to become the norm. Misogyny, slurs, and name calling will not be allowed. To be clear, these have never been tolerated. Now, more than ever, reports help us make sure that we can clean this stuff up.”
I will admit, this one is not as thorough as the others as I am running out of steam, but also Banks has screenshots and links to other people’s replies in his statements, so he kinda summarizes up a lot of what happened
I feel like this may not work BUT I AM GOING TO TRY - if there is something I missed or noted as not able to find, please reply to the comment below so it is easier for me to check it. It must be a link to an actual post, I’m going to be hesitant about anything that is on a brand new account, and if it’s not in English someone please translate! I’m also going to start a few other comment chains to talk about a few different ideas so we, as a community, can try to think of some ways to move forward so this can be more focused on conversations and not crusades, especially since just about everything linked above already had its own thread for discussion
I’ve heard all the stories about how bad arpm is, but I’ve lived in my apartment for 2 years now and never had an issue until last night. Last night my 2 roommates and I were standing outside on our porch drinking beers with a guest. We were standing around a wooden table that we built for our porch to play drinking games and eat dinner off of. At 11:30pm, a “maintenance coordinator” approached us and told us that our table was not legitimate porch furniture, and that we were to remove it from the premises by the next day or we would receive a fine of $1500. It’s important to note that we were not partying: it was just four of us, all over age 21, drinking beers and standing by the table. Now of course I asked the maintenance guy what qualifies as “porch furniture”. And I of course did not get a response other than our table was not porch furniture. It’s not a crappy wooden table put together by a few nails and boards. We built it from plans online, applied a stain and a sealant coat specifically so it could be used outdoors. The terms of our lease states “porch furniture only permitted on porches and balconies”. That is the only reference to what can and can’t be on the porch. But under PA state legislature, any ambiguity in a written agreement is the sole responsibility of the agreements writer. In other words, ARPM must make it absolutely clear what qualifies as porch furniture in writing, otherwise they cannot legally levy a fine. Additionally, under our lease, any exterior lighting, bicycles, and trash cans are forbidden from porches. Our surrounding neighbors have all of the above on their porches but we’re not threatened with a fine. This is selective enforcement which is quite illegal. However, they still insisted on giving us a $1500 fine. So i contacted a lawyer I know personally and he wrote a desist letter for me and sent it to ARPM. The letter essentially says that, if ARPM carries out the fine, legal action will be taken against them. I’ll update this post whenever any updates come from ARPM. Wish me luck! Update: A day has passed since we were threatened with the fine. The “maintenance coordinator” said that we would be fined the following day (Oct 31st) if the table was still on the premises. While we still haven’t received a response to the desist letter, it is now Nov. 1 and we haven’t received a fine. The table is still on the porch.
Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.
This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here. NFA. DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino The Big Picture
Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
Casinos: ~$75Bn
Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average. Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here. Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack. For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range. This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later. Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform. So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino. As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform. Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino. Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized - Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability - Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base. At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs. Share Price drivers / considerations: - Continued multiple expansion
Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards. His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around. Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys. Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward. TL;DR: If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level. [1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19 [2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302 [3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d [4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20 [5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php [6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
36 hour pictures and ER doctors fix are here. original post from Tuesday can be seen here. My husband and I got to the ER last night around 7pm. Im not sure what was going on behind the scenes but not a single patient was called back. I was in pain, uncomfortable, and anxious. To top it off, the waiting area was officially too crowded for covid comfort - at 10:50 I HAD to get out. In tears and close to panic attack, we left the ER. I made do, comfort wise, and got a little sleep. My second grader is learning virtually, so I got him up and online - then started the attempt to be seen all over again. Luckily, my husband could take today off and drive. We were called to a room pretty quickly and a PA came to assess the situation. Her face said "WTF" while my husband pulled up pictures of the birthmark that started it all. My hand is swollen. Pointer and middle fingers are blue. I can tell if someone is touching them, yes - but it damn sure doesn't feel like normal. The stretched skin is impossible to not pull to tug.. Doctor came in .. so I go through the whole thing again, getting aggravated and HURTING from all the questions and inspections. What am I faced with? "well, that's probably not something I would've attempted in office." This leads to him being shown the before picture and me explaining that it bled and bled, and is still slightly bleeding. ...he thinks.. "i can see he did a good job taking time and getting the whole thing out. Did he send it off to the lab? Look at my hand, here. Do you see this vein? Right under where he was working? He had to nick it, so that's why he cauterized so much. It continued to bleed after he finished the sutures, as well. The swelling is a pocket of blood under the dermis layers. That's why your fingers look bruised, too. I don't see signs of infection, so I'm not going to touch the stitches." ok cool. I ask why the stitches look so god awful and why different gages of sutures were used and pointed out a few specific stitches that were like fire and looked different. It appears that my Doctor used a thin (low USP) suture to do some horizontal mattress stitches first, we couldn't tell exactly how many. Then he used a higher USP suture, made an anchor knot, and then did a purse-string suture continuously over the entire wound.. ending with another anchor. THIS is when I can really tell the ER doctor is biting his tongue because he used my hand as an example of why purse-string sutures should never be used over joints especially, but really there are always better choices. Mainly because if one stitch pops, the whole thing unravels. WOOHOO!! also, no referral to a specialist today because there will be no sign of nerve damage until stitches are removed. on the 30th. by my doctor. ..so I should ask him for a referral then. *pretty sure this whole thing started with me asking for a referral, but..* Yall, I was ready to get out of there and just accept that my hand may or may not be the same. He sent a nurse in to wrap my hand tight on a Sam-Splint. I totally showed her "the problem" (my insane stitches) before she started. She then continued to wrap the thing like my wrist was broken, making *sure* to squeeze right on "the problem" with both her fingers and all-around extreme pressure when she was done. My husband helped me resituate it all, filled my rx for a few pain pills, and even made me a nice whiskey drink when we returned home. I will absolutely continue updating if anything else happens. I guess I'm satisfied with the answers I got today and will play the waiting game to check for damage.. maybe. If swelling and pain are the same in a few days I think Ill head to an ER that's farther away from my GP. He's pretty well known and has been practicing forever. Not suggesting anything, but.. well yall saw the suture job. Honestly, Im over life this week. I DO APRICIATE ALL RESPONSES AND PMS!! I read them all, more than once. OH. and I do have the doctor and PAs names from today, but I have no idea if they included the shotty job in their notes. Any tips/suggestions on being sure that healing and all these doctors opinions are documented in medical/legal ways and not just my own photos? I highly doubt Ill ever need anything of the sort but I do love a paper trail. Thanks everyone!
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