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Game of Chance or Game of Skill; how Gambling is regulated in India?

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Game of Chance or Game of Skill; how Gambling is regulated in India?

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[Op-Ed] - Should online gambling in India be regulated? | The Hindu

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[Op-Ed] - Should online gambling in India be regulated?

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Allow gambling, betting on sports as regulated, taxable activities: Law panel - Times of India

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Online Gaming And Gambling Laws And Regulations In India

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Online Gaming And Gambling Laws And Regulations In India

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Online Gaming And Gambling Laws And Regulations In India

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Online Gaming And Gambling Laws And Regulations In India

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Law panel leans towards regulating gambling in India

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Bihar Horror: Man 'loses' wife in gambling, lets friends rape her; throws acid on her for 'purification'

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Story Time: Silver short squeeze

How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All

TL:DR: yes its long. Grab a beer.


Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brother plotted to corner the global silver market.
Sure, back in 1980, Bunker, his younger brother Herbert, and other members of the Hunt clan owned roughly two-thirds of all the privately held silver on earth. But the historic stockpiling of bullion hadn’t been a ploy to manipulate the market, they and their sizable legal team would insist in the following years. Instead, it was a strategy to hedge against the voracious inflation of the 1970s—a monumental bet against the U.S. dollar.
Whatever the motive, it was a bet that went historically sour. The debt-fueled boom and bust of the global silver market not only decimated the Hunt fortune, but threatened to take down the U.S. financial system.
The panic of “Silver Thursday” took place over 35 years ago, but it still raises questions about the nature of financial manipulation. While many view the Hunt brothers as members of a long succession of white collar crooks, from Charles Ponzi to Bernie Madoff, others see the endearingly eccentric Texans as the victims of overstepping regulators and vindictive insiders who couldn’t stand the thought of being played by a couple of southern yokels.
In either case, the story of the Hunt brothers just goes to show how difficult it can be to distinguish illegal market manipulation from the old fashioned wheeling and dealing that make our markets work.
The Real-Life Ewings
Whatever their foibles, the Hunts make for an interesting cast of characters. Evidently CBS thought so; the family is rumored to be the basis for the Ewings, the fictional Texas oil dynasty of Dallas fame.
Sitting at the top of the family tree was H.L. Hunt, a man who allegedly purchased his first oil field with poker winnings and made a fortune drilling in east Texas. H.L. was a well-known oddball to boot, and his sons inherited many of their father’s quirks.
For one, there was the stinginess. Despite being the richest man on earth in the 1960s, Bunker Hunt (who went by his middle name), along with his younger brothers Herbert (first name William) and Lamar, cultivated an image as unpretentious good old boys. They drove old Cadillacs, flew coach, and when they eventually went to trial in New York City in 1988, they took the subway. As one Texas editor was quoted in the New York Times, Bunker Hunt was “the kind of guy who orders chicken-fried steak and Jello-O, spills some on his tie, and then goes out and buys all the silver in the world.”
Cheap suits aside, the Hunts were not without their ostentation. At the end of the 1970s, Bunker boasted a stable of over 500 horses and his little brother Lamar owned the Kansas City Chiefs. All six children of H.L.’s first marriage (the patriarch of the Hunt family had fifteen children by three women before he died in 1974) lived on estates befitting the scions of a Texas billionaire. These lifestyles were financed by trusts, but also risky investments in oil, real estate, and a host of commodities including sugar beets, soybeans, and, before long, silver.
The Hunt brothers also inherited their father’s political inclinations. A zealous anti-Communist, Bunker Hunt bankrolled conservative causes and was a prominent member of the John Birch Society, a group whose founder once speculated that Dwight Eisenhower was a “dedicated, conscious agent” of Soviet conspiracy. In November of 1963, Hunt sponsored a particularly ill-timed political campaign, which distributed pamphlets around Dallas condemning President Kennedy for alleged slights against the Constitution on the day that he was assassinated. JFK conspiracy theorists have been obsessed with Hunt ever since.
In fact, it was the Hunt brand of politics that partially explains what led Bunker and Herbert to start buying silver in 1973.
Hard Money
The 1970s were not kind to the U.S. dollar.
Years of wartime spending and unresponsive monetary policy pushed inflation upward throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. Then, in October of 1973, war broke out in the Middle East and an oil embargo was declared against the United States. Inflation jumped above 10%. It would stay high throughout the decade, peaking in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution at an annual average of 13.5% in 1980.
Over the same period of time, the global monetary system underwent a historic transformation. Since the first Roosevelt administration, the U.S. dollar had been pegged to the value of gold at a predictable rate of $35 per ounce. But in 1971, President Nixon, responding to inflationary pressures, suspended that relationship. For the first time in modern history, the paper dollar did not represent some fixed amount of tangible, precious metal sitting in a vault somewhere.
For conservative commodity traders like the Hunts, who blamed government spending for inflation and held grave reservations about the viability of fiat currency, the perceived stability of precious metal offered a financial safe harbor. It was illegal to trade gold in the early 1970s, so the Hunts turned to the next best thing.
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Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; chart by Priceonomics
As an investment, there was a lot to like about silver. The Hunts were not alone in fleeing to bullion amid all the inflation and geopolitical turbulence, so the price was ticking up. Plus, light-sensitive silver halide is a key component of photographic film. With the growth of the consumer photography market, new production from mines struggled to keep up with demand.
And so, in 1973, Bunker and Herbert bought over 35 million ounces of silver, most of which they flew to Switzerland in specifically designed airplanes guarded by armed Texas ranch hands. According to one source, the Hunt’s purchases were big enough to move the global market.
But silver was not the Hunts' only speculative venture in the 1970s. Nor was it the only one that got them into trouble with regulators.
Soy Before Silver
In 1977, the price of soybeans was rising fast. Trade restrictions on Brazil and growing demand from China made the legume a hot commodity, and both Bunker and Herbert decided to enter the futures market in April of that year.
A future is an agreement to buy or sell some quantity of a commodity at an agreed upon price at a later date. If someone contracts to buy soybeans in the future (they are said to take the “long” position), they will benefit if the price of soybeans rise, since they have locked in the lower price ahead of time. Likewise, if someone contracts to sell (that’s called the “short” position), they benefit if the price falls, since they have locked in the old, higher price.
While futures contracts can be used by soybean farmers and soy milk producers to guard against price swings, most futures are traded by people who wouldn’t necessarily know tofu from cream cheese. As a de facto insurance contract against market volatility, futures can be used to hedge other investments or simply to gamble on prices going up (by going long) or down (by going short).
When the Hunts decided to go long in the soybean futures market, they went very, very long. Between Bunker, Herbert, and the accounts of five of their children, the Hunts collectively purchased the right to buy one-third of the entire autumn soybean harvest of the United States.
To some, it appeared as if the Hunts were attempting to corner the soybean market.
In its simplest version, a corner occurs when someone buys up all (or at least, most) of the available quantity of a commodity. This creates an artificial shortage, which drives up the price, and allows the market manipulator to sell some of his stockpile at a higher profit.
Futures markets introduce some additional complexity to the cornerer’s scheme. Recall that when a trader takes a short position on a contract, he or she is pledging to sell a certain amount of product to the holder of the long position. But if the holder of the long position just so happens to be sitting on all the readily available supply of the commodity under contract, the short seller faces an unenviable choice: go scrounge up some of the very scarce product in order to “make delivery” or just pay the cornerer a hefty premium and nullify the deal entirely.
In this case, the cornerer is actually counting on the shorts to do the latter, says Craig Pirrong, professor of finance at the University of Houston. If too many short sellers find that it actually costs less to deliver the product, the market manipulator will be stuck with warehouses full of inventory. Finance experts refer to selling the all the excess supply after building a corner as “burying the corpse.”
“That is when the price collapses,” explains Pirrong. “But if the number of deliveries isn’t too high, the loss from selling at the low price after the corner is smaller than the profit from selling contracts at the high price.”
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The Chicago Board of Trade trading floor. Photo credit: Jeremy Kemp
Even so, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found that a single family from Texas had contracted to buy a sizable portion of the 1977 soybean crop, they did not accuse the Hunts of outright market manipulation. Instead, noting that the Hunts had exceeded the 3 million bushel aggregate limit on soybean holdings by about 20 million, the CFTC noted that the Hunt’s “excessive holdings threaten disruption of the market and could cause serious injury to the American public.” The CFTC ordered the Hunts to sell and to pay a penalty of $500,000.
Though the Hunts made tens of millions of dollars on paper while soybean prices skyrocketed, it’s unclear whether they were able to cash out before the regulatory intervention. In any case, the Hunts were none too pleased with the decision.
“Apparently the CFTC is trying to repeal the law of supply and demand,” Bunker complained to the press.
Silver Thursday
Despite the run in with regulators, the Hunts were not dissuaded. Bunker and Herbert had eased up on silver after their initial big buy in 1973, but in the fall of 1979, they were back with a vengeance. By the end of the year, Bunker and Herbert owned 21 million ounces of physical silver each. They had even larger positions in the silver futures market: Bunker was long on 45 million ounces, while Herbert held contracts for 20 million. Their little brother Lamar also had a more “modest” position.
By the new year, with every dollar increase in the price of silver, the Hunts were making $100 million on paper. But unlike most investors, when their profitable futures contracts expired, they took delivery. As in 1973, they arranged to have the metal flown to Switzerland. Intentional or not, this helped create a shortage of the metal for industrial supply.
Naturally, the industrialists were unhappy. From a spot price of around $6 per ounce in early 1979, the price of silver shot up to $50.42 in January of 1980. In the same week, silver futures contracts were trading at $46.80. Film companies like Kodak saw costs go through the roof, while the British film producer, Ilford, was forced to lay off workers. Traditional bullion dealers, caught in a squeeze, cried foul to the commodity exchanges, and the New York jewelry house Tiffany & Co. took out a full page ad in the New York Times slamming the “unconscionable” Hunt brothers. They were right to single out the Hunts; in mid-January, they controlled 69% of all the silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York.
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Source: New York Times
But as the high prices persisted, new silver began to come out of the woodwork.
“In the U.S., people rifled their dresser drawers and sofa cushions to find dimes and quarters with silver content and had them melted down,” says Pirrong, from the University of Houston. “Silver is a classic part of a bride’s trousseau in India, and when prices got high, women sold silver out of their trousseaus.”
According to a Washington Post article published that March, the D.C. police warned residents of a rash of home burglaries targeting silver.
Unfortunately for the Hunts, all this new supply had a predictable effect. Rather than close out their contracts, short sellers suddenly found it was easier to get their hands on new supplies of silver and deliver.
“The main factor that has caused corners to fail [throughout history] is that the manipulator has underestimated how much will be delivered to him if he succeeds [at] raising the price to artificial levels,” says Pirrong. “Eventually, the Hunts ran out of money to pay for all the silver that was thrown at them.”
In financial terms, the brothers had a large corpse on their hands—and no way to bury it.
This proved to be an especially big problem, because it wasn’t just the Hunt fortune that was on the line. Of the $6.6 billion worth of silver the Hunts held at the top of the market, the brothers had “only” spent a little over $1 billion of their own money. The rest was borrowed from over 20 banks and brokerage houses.
At the same time, COMEX decided to crack down. On January 7, 1980, the exchange’s board of governors announced that it would cap the size of silver futures exposure to 3 million ounces. Those in excess of the cap (say, by the tens of millions) were given until the following month to bring themselves into compliance. But that was too long for the Chicago Board of Trade exchange, which suspended the issue of any new silver futures on January 21. Silver futures traders would only be allowed to square up old contracts.
Predictably, silver prices began to slide. As the various banks and other firms that had backed the Hunt bullion binge began to recognize the tenuousness of their financial position, they issued margin calls, asking the brothers to put up more money as collateral for their debts. The Hunts, unable to sell silver lest they trigger a panic, borrowed even more. By early March, futures contracts had fallen to the mid-$30 range.
Matters finally came to a head on March 25, when one of the Hunts’ largest backers, the Bache Group, asked for $100 million more in collateral. The brothers were out of cash, and Bache was unwilling to accept silver in its place, as it had been doing throughout the month. With the Hunts in default, Bache did the only thing it could to start recouping its losses: it start to unload silver.
On March 27, “Silver Thursday,” the silver futures market dropped by a third to $10.80. Just two months earlier, these contracts had been trading at four times that amount.
The Aftermath
After the oil bust of the early 1980s and a series of lawsuits polished off the remainder of the Hunt brothers’ once historic fortune, the two declared bankruptcy in 1988. Bunker, who had been worth an estimated $16 billion in the 1960s, emerged with under $10 million to his name. That’s not exactly chump change, but it wasn’t enough to maintain his 500-plus stable of horses,.
The Hunts almost dragged their lenders into bankruptcy too—and with them, a sizable chunk of the U.S. financial system. Over twenty financial institutions had extended over a billion dollars in credit to the Hunt brothers. The default and resulting collapse of silver prices blew holes in balance sheets across Wall Street. A privately orchestrated bailout loan from a number of banks allowed the brothers to start paying off their debts and keep their creditors afloat, but the markets and regulators were rattled.
Silver Spot Prices Per Ounce (January, 1979 - June, 1980)
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Source: Trading Economics
In the words of then CFTC chief James Stone, the Hunts’ antics had threatened to punch a hole in the “financial fabric of the United States” like nothing had in decades. Writing about the entire episode a year later, Harper’s Magazine described Silver Thursday as “the first great panic since October 1929.”
The trouble was not over for the Hunts. In the following years, the brothers were dragged before Congressional hearings, got into a legal spat with their lenders, and were sued by a Peruvian mineral marketing company, which had suffered big losses in the crash. In 1988, a New York City jury found for the South American firm, levying a penalty of over $130 million against the Hunts and finding that they had deliberately conspired to corner the silver market.
Surprisingly, there is still some disagreement on that point.
Bunker Hunt attributed the whole affair to the political motives of COMEX insiders and regulators. Referring to himself later as “a favorite whipping boy” of an eastern financial establishment riddled with liberals and socialists, Bunker and his brother, Herbert, are still perceived as martyrs by some on the far-right.
“Political and financial insiders repeatedly changed the rules of the game,” wrote the New American. “There is little evidence to support the ‘corner the market’ narrative.”
Though the Hunt brothers clearly amassed a staggering amount of silver and silver derivatives at the end of the 1970s, it is impossible to prove definitively that market manipulation was in their hearts. Maybe, as the Hunts always claimed, they just really believed in the enduring value of silver.
Or maybe, as others have noted, the Hunt brothers had no idea what they were doing. Call it the stupidity defense.
“They’re terribly unsophisticated,” an anonymous associated was quoted as saying of the Hunts in a Chicago Tribune article from 1989. “They make all the mistakes most other people make,” said another.
p.s. credit to Ben Christopher

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PAYSAFE VS PAYONEER - Which is the Better Buy?

Paysafe is about to merge w/ BFT, hopefully sometime this quarter and as most of you know, it is a digital payments company. Payoneer, is rumored to be possibly merging w/ FTOC and also is a digital payments company.
So why are digital payments a big deal? Well, digital payments are expected to impact 80% of existing banking revenue and be a $7.6 TRILLION industry by 2024. Furthermore, it is expected that current digital payment companies including both Paysafe and Payoneer will experience double digit annual growth over the next 10 years. Or more specifically, a CAGR of 14.2% as a sector.
But there are already big names like SQ & PYPL, why would I want to buy into Paysafe or Payoneer? The answer is simple. The rate at which digital payments are expanding, there is almost infinite growth for companies who can position themselves by having a niche or corner markets in other countries. And when investing you are looking for both growth and scale.
Paysafe currently specializes in payment processing, API, Online payments, gambling payments, Dig Payment Interation w/ Business, Receipts and managing them, fraud detection, automated billing, multiple currency support, mobile payments and currency conversion.
Payoneer currently specializes in Single & Mass Payments, Partner Networking, Receiving Payments, Multi-Currency Support & Integrated Payment systems, digital marketing, ecommerce.
Paysafe acquires revenue based on a sliding scale or a high volume client rate. Where as Payoneer operates on a flat fee percentage.
Paysafe is expected to have $1.5 billion in revenue this year while Payoneer is expected to have around $300 million. Paysafe is obviously the bigger company, so we should skip investing in Payoneer, right? Not soo fast, just because they are currently smaller now, doesn't mean they won't be a billion dollar revenue producing company in 5 years. And that means lots of growth in both valuation and market cap, meaning, your stock price erupts with the growth.
Payoneer and Paysafe both have big name clients. Too many to list, but Payoneer supports Amazon, Google, Adobe and AirBNB. Paysafe has clients such as Playstation, Steam, Skype & Facebook. So both have big name clients and names paying the bills currently.
So which one should you buy? While Payoneer is a strong and a growing international player who is rapidly expanding in India, Japan, Phillipines, South Korea and the UK and although a much smaller company, it has some big name customers. Also note that Payoneer has tripled its revenue over the last 5 years. And on the other hand, Paysafe too has solid customers, much greater revenue and it too is positioned to grow quickly in the digital payments world.
Well, the answer seems simple. BFT is the safer bet and is about to close their reverse merger any day now. It's selling for a bit over $15 right now while FTOC is at a bit under $12. Both are based on a NAV of $10. On the other hand, for those of you comfortable with risk, buying FTOC on speculation before the DA/LOI are signed and announced could very likely result in you making $2-$4 share on the announcement alone.
Another thing to consider as well, is that BFT offers one of the largest gambling wallets in the world. Why is that important? Well, lots of states and govt's are feeling the effects of C-19 on their coffers from the lack of tax dollars and are either rolling back regulation or writing in new regulations so they can benefit from gambling tax dollars. I expect that to greatly expand Paysafes revenues and profitability as gambling carries higher fees than traditional services.
I do feel that both PayoneeFTOC & BFT/Paysafe will continue to expand rapidly, most likely dwarfing the anticipated 14.2% CAGR and that they have a strong chance of tripling in size AGAIN over the next 5 years as digital payments snowball.
So bottom line, digital payments are in the golden age of expansion and both of these companies are poised to enjoy their share of that expansion and while neither company seems to be knocking the others bottom out w/ a Donkey Punch, Paysafe is the larger of the two. BFT/Paysafe seems like a sure thing, while FTOC/Payoneer is the riskier play until the DA/LOI are signed. But as usual, with greater risk, comes greater reward.
Disclosure: I am long on both BFT/Paysafe & FTOC/Payoneer.
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Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
submitted by jeromeBDpowell to SPACs [link] [comments]

Xeno's ノート- 10 Drift Nations Peppered Across The Globe In 2045

A batch of information regarding Drift Nations in the Time of the Red, to be used as hook or locations in your games if you feel so inclined. The second part is already being worked on.

10 Drift Nations Peppered Across The Globe In 2045

The Centino Flotilla (Nomad Family) Area of operations: Northern and Southern Pacific Numbers and leadership: 40,000+ members, ~8,000 vessels (of various size), led by Allegria Chung
The Centino Flotilla is one of the few good things finding their roots in the Fourth Corporate War, some would say. After only months of bitter fighting between Arasaka and Militech, everyone had but forgotten the two corporations, OTEC and CINO, responsible for kicking-off the conflict. Equally, no one was surprised to hear that the two companies ended up bleeding each other to death during the Sea War, mostly in the Pacific.
As with many others, the destruction of Arasaka's headquarters in Night City by a nuclear detonation came as a wake up call. But the situation was already past the return point for both corporations and, as the commercial entities teetered over the edge, their maritime forces came to an uneasy stand-off in the Pacific. It took all the diplomatic skills of one of CINO's captain, Grant Chung, to reach over the divide and bring the two parties together. Bound by years of mutual bloodletting and tragedies, they decided to merge forces and survive together against all odds.
After pooling their last resources together, the two parties spent the next year building their flotilla and roaming the Pacific Ocean. Determined to never be a tool of corporate greed ever again, they brought their skills to help rebuilding many of the Pacific Island nations, as well as other Drift Nations such as AquaDelphi or the Great Pacific Garbage Patch.
Now led by Grant's daughter, Allegria, the flotilla is a force to be reckoned with, its vessels flying the teal wave emblem being seen all over the Pacific. Specialized in reconstruction of seashore communities and shepherding Ghost Fleets toward places where they could be recycled, they are one of the new binding links of the Pacific ocean nations.
AquaDelphi (Fallen Coporate Dream) Location: South-West of Hawaii Estimated population and leadership: 30,000+, organized in guilds with a Central Council of 5
AquaDelphi's project came out during the corporate golden years, sprouting off OTEC's board of director's collective hubris. Not unlike Night City, AquaDelphi was designed to serve as the new standard by which future cities would be built. And no one ever blamed the OTEC heads for lack of ambition.
Mobilizing all the resources from their conglomerate, the maritime corporation set their view on a territory close to Hawaii. Buying the ownership from the fallen US federal government was a piece of cake at the time and construction began quickly. Centered around the company headquarters, the city was to hold the largest library humankind ever put together, a massive seaport complete with dry docks, and utopian housing for the corporate families among other pharaoh-like projects. The whole place was powered by harnessing geothermal energy and run by the in-house AI, Pythia.
Unfortunately, as Fate is wont to, AquaDelphi was still under construction when the Fourth Corporate War came knocking. The green spaces of the housing district and the ancient white stones of the library were the first to go when the bombings started, then it was the turn of OTEC headquarters. As long as the monstrous steel towers stood upright, most of the population tried to keep the dream alive despite Pythia's more and more frequent erratic outbursts; but it was only delaying the inevitable exodus toward Hawaii.
Nowadays, AquaDelphi is slowly being rebuilt, thanks mostly to her massive sea port becoming one of the major places for ship breaking. Refugees gradually return to a place the Kress administration would not touch with a ten foot pole and dream of renaissance, but many are wary of the corporate nightmares lying in wait, among which Pythia...
New R'lyeh (Reckoners Cthuluny) Location: South Pacific Estimated Population and Leadership: 6,000+ under the leadership of the Dunwich Congregation
A decade ago, nobody had heard of the Dunwich Congregation. Only specialist were aware of this reckoner cult, led by austere people in outmoded black suits. Anyone would have told you that their idea of a cosmic entity with far too many tentacles and consonants in its name was never going to appeal to the masses. But the community endured, centered around their faith in Lovecraft's writings.
The news then dropped one day, six years ago: the congregation had purchased a rotten weather outpost in the empty corner of Southern Pacific. Reports of a growing shanty town came back, brought by passing ships and still no one expected them to survive once again. But they did, sending more missionaries across the world, armed with the Cthulu Mythologies; and their numbers grow steadily if slowly. Their declared goal in establishing New R'lyeh is to find old R'lyeh, a sunken city supposedly holding either a sleeping Cthulu or a way to connect with them. No one will speak openly about life in New R'lyeh but rumors of cultural segregation, weird rites and human sacrifices are legion. Whatever the truth, they are there to stay and never relent.
Their deep sea explorations and general presence are not to the taste of the European Space Agency (ESA), whose Deepdown outposts have been established there for decades in order to retrieve low-orbit material brought back to Earth in the area. The assaults led by ESA's underwater elite troops, the Nemos, stay fruitless as the cultists proved to hard to remove from the area. With number swelling steadily every year, New R'lyeh keeps growing weirder and is not going anywhere.
Cape Horn Wreckers (Scavvers Union) Location: Cape Horn area Numbers and Leadership: Up to 500 members. Leadership unknown.
Many places still struggle with the aftermath of the last Corporate War. Take Cape Horn, for example. The southernmost end of South America was for centuries the standard against which sailors measured their abilities and, more recently, a strategical passage to control for commercial and military purposes. Needless to say the place saw bitter fighting during the Sea War.
Which is why everybody started clapping when Argentinians and Chileans publicly decided to put their differences aside and find ways to clear up Cape Horn for maritime shipping once peace returned. Weary of corporate task forces, they decided to hire a multitude of small operators with designated areas to work on, in exchange for advantageous prices buying back salvaged material, as well as a share of any reclaimed equipment. Little did they know this would help turn their myriad of contractors in the now infamous Cape Horn Wreckers.
After only a couple of years, the small contractor crews started to work as a cooperative, granting them better negotiating power when selling back salvaged materials; while limited oversight allowed them to keep for themselves smaller ships and various pieces of armament at they saw fit. When the shipwrecks became too scarce and maritime shipping sputtered anew, the Wreckers naturally started using scramblers to lure passing vessels aground and pillage them.
By the time Chile and Argentina decided to intervene, it was too late. The Wreckers could stand on their own against national armies and navies. The international community obligingly looked aside for years but recent incursions in the Drake Passage forced foreign powers to start face the problem more directly. As a start, a series of bounties were set for anyone able to help identify and capture the Wreckers' leaders ...
North Atlantic Trade Hub (High Seas Trade Post) Location: Midway between the Azores and Ireland Population and leadership: 127,520 under joint Corporate-European Council oversight.
It took decades in the making for this trade platform to come out of the waves two years ago in the middle of Northern Atlantic. Decades of negotiations between Kaerms, the European maritime shipping titan, and European Council representatives during which American and Asian competitors took the lead. The North Atlantic Trade Hub is supposed to the European answer to this situation. Fearing Europe loss of speed in the maritime shipping and shipbuilding areas, N.A.T.H (as most familiarly call it) was conceived with the dual purpose in mind.
NATH is in reality an atoll of starfish-shaped platforms working in close relationship. On one side you will find the state of the art Noatun shipyards, pumping out small or medium trade vessels at an increasing rhythm and with a focus set on affordability and durability, the "sea mules" of the reborn sea trade. Paired with this, you will find a constellation of piers and decentralized trading centers, hosting a wide variety of small corporation and independent traders.
To keep their edge sharp, the European Union agreed to let the platform become a de facto city state with a policy of "high wages - low taxes" for five years granted to any worker, engineer or researcher choosing to migrate there; under the condition that they move to Europe and naturalize at the end of their contract.
As for now, the NATH managed its primary objective of becoming Europe's gateway for Northern Atlantic trade. The sea mules sell decently enough but are yet to threaten the Asian shipyards, the real mastodons of the industry. In the meantime, slack standards benefited many of the grey economy operators: if you need European gear, for cheap, then head on over before time's up and the forces of regulations start to crack down!
The Nansen Nation (Stateless Society) Area of Operations: Mediterranean Sea Estimated numbers and Leadership: ~200,000 citizens; 60,000+ vessels; led by the council of 500
Saying the Mediterranean sea has a millennia-long history of serving as the interface for human commerce and migrations comes to no surprise for anyone. If commerce was said to tighten the bonds across the sea, migrations became an increasingly divisive subject for trans-Mediterranean summits during the 20th century. Many ventured off the Mediterranean shore and tried to immigrate to Europe, often risking their lives in the process; while "Fortress Europe" focused inwardly on its own success and only offered token help to the migrants if they returned home.
The situation became a nightmare during the Middle-East meltdown of the late 90's. Hundreds of thousands of humans ended up stranded at sea, roaming the Mediterranean as ghosts, stuck between war-torn countries on one side and a paradise out of reach on the other. And Europe kept letting only a few in, openly picking and competing over whichever individuals they thought could benefit their countries the most.
By the time African states managed to open their door more widely and benefit from the influx of population, many refugees then refused to return to land. Living for many years at seas, they had learned to make a living off of the waters and to navigate the inland sea like no other nation; turning them into peerless transporters and smugglers with a central role in the Mediterranean.
After electing a council of 500 hundred captains, the multi-cultural community chose their name from the Nansen passport delivered to stateless individuals a century before that. Their counters can be found in any major port of the inland sea, under the purple Phoenician letter N, offering their services to anyone looking to move someone or something discreetly over the sea. Europeans pay double, it goes without saying.
Safaniya-Zakum (Oil Extraction Complex) Location: Persian Gulf Estimated Population and Leadership: 80,000+ inhabitants and workers led by local royals
"A technological prowess" is what the Safaniya-Zakum complex is often described as. Both proponents and opponents of the project do tip their hat to its execution. Using a blend of time-proven and cutting edge technologies, a network of oil rigs, fishing piers, gas ducts and housing blocks is now stretching out above the waves of the Persian Gulf, all the way from Kuwait to the Hormuz Strait.
Proponents of the Saf-Za complex call it "the phoenix chant of a reborn Middle-East". Many put forward the accent set on sustainability and multi-cultural society, overcoming the ancient divisions. Not only the complex's only operator, a state-run company, manages to extract oil and gas from the sea bed again, but the ancient traditions of fishing and pearl culture are brought back. Considering the desolated lands of Iran and United Arab Emirates on both coasts, it is hard not to perceive the Saf-Za network as a cry of defiance against defeatism and a sense of doom.
Opponents call it "the swan song of a dying industry", preferring to point at the predominance of CHOOH² and deploring the refusal to let go of antiquated technologies. Others underline the complex's authoritarian regime and omnipresent police. Any visitors hoping to set a foot in will have to provide a full genetic profile and suffice to say that anyone even remotely affiliated to PetroChem or SovOil will never have a chance to peek inside.
With the extremely high level of difficulty regarding the obtaining of any information from inside the complex, experts are left wondering if the Safaniya-Zakum structure will hold long enough between intern fracture lines and outside pressure; long enough to recreate the major center of trade between India and the Eastern coast of Africa the region once was.
Deep Level Recovery HQ (Artificial Corporate Island) Location: Bay of Bengal Estimated Population and Leadership: ~7,000 employees led by D.L.R CEO and Face Kanchan Bonse
When the first Deepdown bubbles experimentation appeared decades ago, nobody expected any one else than military actors or some of the largest mega-corporations of the time to take the industry's lead toward expansion into civilian markets. But during the late 2020's, such actors had their compass set on rebuilding their power and returning to pre-war balance. Which suited someone who had been swimming under the radar for a bit.
Kanchan Bonse grew up following her corporate executive mother along a wide variety of postings. She emerged from her childhood with two passions: wreck diving and corporate power play. In the following years, she worked along the Indian coastlines on maritime salvage projects or post-disaster rescue operations. During those formative years, she lost nothing of her passions but gained a thick address book filled with talented if disgruntled, under-payed workers and engineers. Deep Level Recovery had all the ingredients to come to existence.
After building the core of her future corporation using her personal fortune; Bonse focused on developing proprietary designs for underwater habitats and workshops, allowing her technicians too work longer underwater. Spending many years experimenting and enhancing their techniques during humanitarian crises in South-East Asia, DLR took no side during the Fourth Corporate War but only gained power in the aftermath by landing many lucrative contracts all over the world.
Decades later, their glass bubble headquarters sit on waters granted by the Indian government as a thankful gesture. Visitors can admire there both the company's humanitarian projects and Deepdown habitat designs destined to the richest fringe of the planet. It is said that Kanchan Bonse only dives for pleasure these days but seems to be keeping tabs on elite divers across the world.
Far Yue City (Modular Floating City State) Location: South China Sea Estimated population and Leadership: 750,000 to 1,000,000 with a Central Representative Council
The fate of Hong Kong is one of the many tragedies of our times. After years of inner fighting and outside influence, the vibrant city was trying to recover when the Fourth Corporate War hit the world. A tragedy that climaxed with a biochemical attack for Hong Kong, closing that chapter on an abrupt end and leaving the rest of the wold with nothing but the Ghost World for memories. But that was without taking in account those who had to run prior to the events...
Since 2027 it has been noted that many members of the diaspora converged towards the Spratly islands to reunite with refugees from the Fragrant Harbour. Many former cargo vessels were bought as well as the maximum amount of TEU's they could get their hands on. In a matter of years a medium size fleet assembled with its inhabitants carrying their whole lives and families aboard, amidst a tangle of TEU's whose assembly became reminiscent of Kowloon's Walled City.
Early on, the ensemble stuck together giving life to a vivid culture of community and ingenuity. Workshops found new ways of extracting the most out of their minimal space and reduced resources. Personal networks connected and shared outside connections. The place became known as Far Yue City. By that time it was already able to travel as a group, approaching the coast of neighbouring countries, engaging in trade and knowledge sharing in exchange for protection.
Nowadays Far Yue city is able to criss-cross the whole South China sea as a whole, but more often fragmented; bringing city-sized dense assemblages of shops, schools, apartments, workshops and other gambling halls to various neighboring countries despite some local grumblings. For there is no better place in the region to obtain rare information, enjoy Dim Sum, place a bet, get a light-tattoo or learn hacking techniques than one of those floating districts sporting the white orchid emblem.
Ivory Sails (Free Navy) Area of operation: Worldwide Estimated numbers and Leadership: ~20,000 troops, ~2,000 boats, led by Ian Sharpgrove
The history of the Ivory sails is a tale of danger, daring actions and glory. Or it is a litany of war crimes, greed and ruthlessness. It usually depends on which side of the conflict you were. The Ivory Sails came to the world during the harsh days of the Sea War. As Militech and Arasaka were trading blows on land, sea, in the air, and in the cyberspace; their allies and subsidiaries destroyed each other; creating opportunities for professional outfits. Some of them at sea.
In came Ian Sharpgrove, raising out of obscurity at the tail end of the conflict and bringing with him a highly-specialized crew tailored for special operations. There was no raid the Sharpgrove Unit would fear to undertake, no desperate rearguard action they would not fight, no mission dangerous enough for them. Eventually managing the dubious feat of selling their services to most of the actors on both sides of the conflict, Sharpgrove and his troops made a name for themselves and soon enough everyone was ready to pay them so they would not fight for the other side.
This "sense of realpolitik winds", as he puts it himself, was what permitted now admiral Sharpgrove and his faithful troops to emerge rich and powerful out of the conflict. But their reputation was forever stained with infamy. In a transparent laundering effort, the group was re-named Ivory Sails and oriented themselves toward "peacekeeping" and "police actions", with a sprinkling of highly-publicized humanitarian stunts to seduce the medias.
Nowadays the Ivory Sails can be found anywhere across the globe training coastguard navies, securing areas for corporate clients, escorting refugee convoys and other such actions. Each time extracting a true ransom in exchange for their presence. But Sharpgrove knows the new golden age of privateers is reaching its end and takes every opportunity to line his pockets, mercilessly resorting to piracy if needed, before someone finally "retires" him once and for all.
submitted by ZhtWu to cyberpunkred [link] [comments]

Enphase Energy Post-Earnings DD

Enphase Energy Post-Earnings DD
Hi all,
Yesterday Enphase Energy published their Q4 2020 results. See my earlier DD here in this sub.
With this post I would like to discuss the results and the web-call with regard to future growth/earnings. So far my investment in Enphase was a solid move (5% after-market), let’s hope that this momentum will increase. I have divided this post in three chapters: results, web-cast management notes and analyst Q&A. However, before we continue let me first do a short into on the new C-suite hire.
Chief Marketing Officer
Enphase recently announced that they hired Allison Johnson as Chief Marketing Officer. Who is Mrs. Johnson and why did they hire her at this moment? Are sales declining or are there some amazing plans in the pipeline?
“Johnson brings decades of executive marketing experience to Enphase, including serving as chief marketing officer at PayPal, where she led a global marketing transformation, and as vice president of marketing communications at Apple, Inc., where she helped launch some of Apple’s most iconic products and campaigns of the Steve Jobs era. Johnson received her Bachelor of Science degree in journalism and communications at the University of Florida.”
When checking her Linkedin, she started working at IBM as a Media Relations Director, moved to Netscape (1 year) à HP (6 years) à Apple (6 years) à West (7 years) à Paypal (1.5 years).
Let leave it here for now.
Results Q4 2020:
· We reported revenue of $264.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, along with 40.2% for non-GAAP gross margin. We shipped approximately 762 megawatts DC, or 2,292,132 microinverters.
· Revenue of $264.8 million
· Cash flow from operations of $84.2 million; ending cash balance of $679.4 million
· GAAP gross margin of 46.0%; non-GAAP gross margin of 40.2%
· GAAP operating income of $79.1 million; non-GAAP operating income of $72.4 million
· GAAP net income of $73.0 million; non-GAAP net income of $71.3 million
· GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.50; non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.51

https://preview.redd.it/8rqzlro7vmg61.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=605df05a5786cde0d8a866f3fe901dd691bdf4ad
This was their forecast for Q4 2020:
For the fourth quarter of 2020, Enphase Energy estimates both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results as follows:
· Revenue to be within a range of $245.0 million to $260.0 million; revenue guidance does not include any safe harbor shipments
· GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 37.0% to 40.0%, excluding the recovery of the remaining $16.0 million tariff refund that has not yet been approved; non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding tariff refund and stock-based compensation expenses
· GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $51.0 million to $54.0 million, including $16.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related amortization
· Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $35.0 million to $38.0 million, excluding $16.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related amortization
So one can say that they performed extremely well.
Management notes web-call:
Badri:
Let's now talk about manufacturing. Our operations team did a great job flexing manufacturing as 2020 played out. When the pandemic began, we cut manufacturing in Q2 of 2020 and then had to quickly ramp back up to meet the surge in demand in Q3 and Q4. The production in Q4 was more than two times the level in Q2. I'm very pleased with the ramp of our Mexico factory that met our target of producing more than 1 million units in Q4.”
“As part of our supply chain strategy to diversify production to tariff free and cost competitive locations globally, we began microinverter production at Salcomp, India in October of 2020 and started shipping to customers during Q4. We have a high quality state-of-the-art automated line with a quarterly production capacity of 0.5 million units and the space to add a second line with the same capacity. The production ramp is going very well and we expect to produce approximately 400,000 microinverters in India in Q1.”
“Let's now move on to the regions. Our US and international revenue mix for Q4 was 82% and 18%.”
“In Europe, we reported record revenue for Q4. Revenue increased 10% sequentially. On an annual basis, the revenue from Europe increased 32% in 2020.”
“In Australia, we built on our strong Q3 results and achieved record quarterly sell-through and record installer count in Q4. The results were fueled by the launch of our Enphase Installer Network or EIN as well as growing demand for our high power IQ 7A microinverters plus a favorable competitive environment as regulations continued to shift towards safer and smarter solar. We expect to introduce our Enphase Storage system for the Australian market during the fourth quarter of 2021.”
“In Latin America, we reported record quarterly revenue. Puerto Rico showed strength for our microinverter systems as well as our storage systems.”
“At the same time, the uptick in broad economic activity has stressed the global semiconductor supply chain. We are seeing constraints on a few semiconductor components used in our microinverters.”
There are two specific components that we are constrained on. One is our ASIC that goes into the micro and the other is the AC FET drivers that actually drive the high voltage FET. There the name of the game is we are qualifying multiple more sources so that we have more supply as well as expediting product. And I am in direct touch with the CEOs of those companies and they are helping as much as they can. We expect to get all caught up basically by early April. Our top priority through all of this is to ensure that we take care of customers. So we will do whatever it takes in order to ensure their lines are running and that they are not affected. So that's on the microinverter side.”
“You will see a lot more going forward. So we continue to grow at a nice clip. You can do the math. If we continue to grow at this 30%, soon we will need a third supplier, that might happen in 2022 and we are already talking to those people”
TL:DR: They are growing in every aspect. They are trying to train installers internationally (Australia, Europe, South-America). Ones these installers are trained appropriately, they will start installing the products. Enphase will rather wait with the installment to only send very trained personnel, then just let a shitty installer do the job.
Q&A:
Q1: “Thanks for taking our questions and congrats on the quarter. So you said you'll start shipping IQ 8 in 2Q. How should we think about IQ 8's standalone pricing versus IQ 7? What may be the range on the premium and might you expect over time a majority of installers shifting more toward IQ 8 versus IQ 7 or is the jury out on that question still?”
A1: “With regarding whether people are going to adopt IQ 8 over IQ 7, we think the answer is a no brainer. It's going to be, yes. IQ 8 is a grid-independent microinverter system. So, therefore, I expect the adoption to be high when it is released and there are obviously a lot of combinations with IQ 8 and in some cases, people might prefer to buy IQ 8 with a smarter storage system and we will be promoting the heck out of it.”
Q2: “Okay. Thank you. And just on the R&D cycle, are there any updates you can provide on the development of IQ 9 where that currently stands at this time? Is it still being developed or is it in testing phase? If you can provide any color there? Thank you.”
A2: “Yeah. We are actually working on IQ 9 at this time and IQ 9, our vision is basically obviously smaller, cheaper, faster, producing a lot more power than IQ 8. Right now, we are focused on a few areas. One is, we'd like to see how to reduce the footprint of the transformers, the [indiscernible] (00:49:10), the 600-volt AC FET devices through some semiconductor process innovation. GaN transistors are becoming widespread. GaN-on-GaN, GaN-on-silicon, they are becoming widespread.”
Q3: “And just on the new acquisitions and the digital strategy, could you maybe talk about like what's the goal here in terms of reducing that soft cost? I think a couple in the solar developers have talked about $7,000 or $8,000 per customer of soft costs. So, is the idea here to kind of like bring it down similar to probably what the soft cost is in Europe and Australia or what's your thought process here? And I have just a quick follow-up after that as well. Thanks.
Yeah. So, soft cost is an outcome of what our goal is. Our goal is to provide our installer partners with the best service possible, and so – installer partners actually as well as the homeowner. So, we have mapped out a very detailed journey of both how the entire installation process as well for both the installers as well as our homeowners starting with leads all the way through design, proposal, permitting, procurement, commissioning, installation commissioning, permission to operate O&M, et cetera. And so, if we do an amazing job on that where we really create a very powerful platform and these acquisitions that we're talking about are important elements of that journey, then I think the natural outcome of that is going to be a reduction in the soft cost. But we are starting with a very clear focus that this is about bringing great value for our long-tail installer partners.”
My thoughts:
Staying invested in a company post-earnings is normally not our strategy. We scan every company on the earnings calendar and dive in the fundamentals/growth of that company. If you find 3 solid companies which you want to gamble your money on per week, there is a possibility to earn 10% ROI on each of those companies. Investing in boomer company of which the stock increases 2% post-earnings is not interesting for us. It rather be +7% at least, or nothing.
Enphase however is a different story. They keep beating their forecasts every quarter. There is enormous demand for their products and they a growing in supply and demand.
- Management is amazing. The way Badri perceives the business is very client focused. They are well aware that this is a client focused business and quality and client experience are top priority.
- With regards to future growth they have some very interesting things going on. IQ 8, which I expect to be finished during the 2nd quarter of this year. Then it is the job of the new CMO to promote the heck out of this. As Badri said in the call: “people might prefer to buy IQ 8 with a smarter storage system and we will be promoting the heck out of it.”
- There is so much growth opportunity in this company. And yes the P/E is high, but you must see Enphase as a tech company and not solar producer. Last quarter they hired 85 employees.
- So our plan: keep this gem for one more quarter to see how their results are in the next quarter. Have they improved their semiconductors problem or not? Are they still beating the forecast or not. Then we’ll see from there on. This weekend’s plan: scan earnings calendar of next week to find the next gem 😊
Q1 2021 forecasts:
For the first quarter of 2021, Enphase Energy estimates both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results as follows:
• Revenue to be within a range of $280.0 million to $300.0 million; revenue guidance does not include any safe harbor shipments
• GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 37.0% to 40.0%, as there are no remaining tariff refunds pending approval; non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding stock-based compensation expenses
• GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $64.0 million to $67.0 million, including $22.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related costs and amortization
• Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $42.0 million to $45.0 million, excluding $22.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related costs and amortization
submitted by Edjaz to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

PANDEMIC UPDATE - 26 January 2021

UPDATE – 26 January 2021
COVID has been in Canada for one year now.
The strange case of the CEO in disguise to get vaccine for himself.
COVID-19 tax tips.
COVID-19 and the world of work – the International Labor Organization.
A breakdown of cases among healthcare workers.

If you’re having trouble regulating life while working from home, the fake commute might be for you, have a look: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/18/success/fake-commute-meaning-benefits-pandemic-wellness/index.html
“For the many who have been doing your part, you may be asking, what more can I do? Be the voice of support and encouragement for those who may be wavering in their resolve.” – Dr. Bonnie Henry.
Feel free to share this post, or copy and paste, in whole or any part of it.

LOCAL:
· 82 cases among New West residents in the previous week.
· No new school exposures in New Westminster since that of the Queensborough Middle School on January 11th.
· Current outbreaks: Royal City Manor, declared Jan 21; Royal Columbian Hospital, declared Jan 20.
· The Rio Theatre in Vancouver has converted into a sports bar.
· The theatre is dealing with a full closure of movie theatres. But as restaurants and bars can remain open with safety protocols, the theatre is seeking other ways to do business. The move does show that the Rio cannot do business as a theatre right now, but can meet the safety requirements to operate as a sports bar.
· There are differences though. The theatre has to actually meet the requirements for a bar, such as taking orders from people’s seats rather than allowing a line-up at the concession.
· The move has stirred controversy, with some decrying the Rio as finding a loophole while the basic lay-out is still that of a theatre, with narrow entryways and tiny washrooms. Others welcome the move as innovative, a way for a theatre to survive during the closure.
Sources: CBC, Global News, Fraser Health

PROVINCIAL:
· The strange case of the CEO in disguise.
· Vancouver couple Rod and Ekaterina Baker were fined $575 after sneaking into the Yukon to try to get the vaccine for themselves.
· The couple posed as local motel workers.
· The clinic at Beaver Creek normally has one nurse and a receptionist, but a team of six was flown in to do vaccinations. Beaver Creek was chosen because “of its remoteness, elderly and population, and limited access to health care,” said Chief Angela Demit of the White River First Nation in Beaver Creek.
· The story of the wealthy executive trying to get vaccine intended for remote elderly First Nations people has not gone over well.
· Rod Baker is the Chief Executive Officer of Great Canadian Gaming, since 2011, where he earns $900,000 per year as salary, but last year also made $45.9 million from company stock options.. The company announced his resignation yesterday. The gambling company cited it’s “core values.” Ekaterina Baker is an actor, but not apparently a good enough one to fool Yukon officials. The couple chartered a flight to the Yukon.
· “We had not been imagining that someone would go to this length to mislead or deceive.” John Streicker, Yukon’s Minister of Community Services.
· The manager of the 1202 Motor Inn, where the couple claimed to work, was also rather upset. “That’s a risk (serving travellers) that we take – not a risk that somebody enforces upon us because they are too ignorant.” Staff at the Beaver Creek clinic found the couple suspicious, and phoned the motel to check on their story. While at the clinic and pretending to live and work in town, the couple rather oddly asked if anyone could drive them to the airport afterwards.
· Story from the Globe and Mail: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-great-canadian-gaming-ceo-resigns-after-being-charged-in-yukon-ove?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Coronavirus%20Update&utm_content=2021-1-25_19&utm_term=Coronavirus%20Update:%20Great%20Canadian%20Gaming%20CEO%20resigns%20after%20alleged%20botched%20disguise%20as%20Yukon%20motel%20worker%20in%20attempt%20to%20get%20COVID-19%20vaccine&utm_campaign=newsletter&cu_id=czq7hF%2BueFDcmmCKozRUQ1bduJl6paGe
· Ekaterina Baker is known for acting in productions such as Chick Fight, Fatman, The Asset, and The Comeback Trail, and as producer of Big Gold Brick.
· IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm9698063/
· BC has adopted a four phase vaccination plan.
· Phase 1, December to February: Residents, staff, essential visitors with long-term care and assisted living; people waiting for long-term care; people in remote Indigenous communities and hospital workers caring for patients with COVID-19.
· Phase 2, February to March: Seniors over 80; Indigenous seniors over 65, Indigenous elders; more health-care workers; vulnerable populations and nursing-home staff.
· Phase 3, April to June: Members of the general public aged 60 to 79.
· Phase 4, July to September: Members of the general public aged 18 to 59.
· Premier John Horgan says the plan is based on those who get most sick, and those most likely to die, so priority goes to the elderly and vulnerable, and those who work around them.
· The Premier said multiple groups argued that they were front-line workers and so should get priority. But with vaccine supply limited, it didn’t seem to make sense to vaccinate people on the basis of their job, like being a front-line worker, ahead people ahead of seniors or those more likely to be hospitalized or to die. Health care workers are not only the most likely to be exposed, but they also work with and have direct contact with patients and the vulnerable.
· Here is a good article with the numbers and the rationale behind the priorities: https://www.newwestrecord.ca/local-news/opinion-elderly-should-get-covid-19-vaccine-before-bc-teachers-3291898
· The dates might vary, depending on supply.
· Covid cases in BC have plateaued to an average of 500 per day.
· Dr. Bonnie Henry said that the number is still dangerously high. “For the last few weeks, we have plateaued at 500 new cases. This is too many. We are at a precipice. The virus continues to circulate in our communities. We are at the threshold of where we were in late October and November when cases started to rise.”
· “Over the next two week, I believe we can bend our curve. Not just plateau, but bend it back down…. More than you’ve done before, stay home, stop social interactions.”
· B.C. will receive no new doses of vaccine over the next two weeks. It is not sure how much will be received in February.
· Over the past three days – Saturday, Sunday, Monday:
· 1,344 new cases. 618 of those in Fraser Health. 527 reported on Saturday, 472 on Sunday, 346 on Monday. 64,828 cases to date.
· 26 new deaths. 1,154 total.
· 4,392 active cases.
· 57,831 recovered.
· 11 outbreaks in long-term care declared over.
· 6 cases of the UK variant in BC, 3 cases of the South Africa variant. No community transmission of the UK variant, but the South Africa variant cases are not connected to travel and are being investigated. Dr. Henry: “I’m very concerned. I’m concerned that if those variants start to spread, it’s just going to make our job that much more difficult.”
· 119,850 doses of vaccine administered to date.
· New numbers for Tuesday:
· 14 new deaths. 1,168 total.
· 407 new cases. 65,234 total. (Comparison: a high of 911 cases happened for Nov 27).
· 313 hospitalized, 71 in intensive care. (A high of 381 were hospitalized on January 6th).
· 4,260 active cases.
· 6,450 in self-isolation.
· 58,352 recovered.
· 122,359 doses of vaccine administered to date. 4,105 are second doses.
· No new outbreaks, one outbreak declared over.
· Dr. Bonnie Henry: “For the many who have been doing your part, you may be asking, what more can I do? Be the voice of support and encouragement for those who may be wavering in their resolve.”
· New restriction may be necessary if the number begins to climb again.
· 4,850 cases among health care workers, from January 2020 to 15 January 2021. About 8% of cases.
· From January to December 17th 2020, care aides had the highest number of cases among healthcare workers at 1,193 or 24.6%. Nurses were second at 833 or 17.2%. Below are the ten highest number of cases by healthcare worker category.
· 1,193 – care aids.
· 833 – nurse.
· 304 – licensed practical nurse.
· 280 – administration.
· 177 – housekeeping.
· 156 – dental professional.
· 151 – physician.
· 149 – kitchen staff, dietary aid, food services.
· 91 – occupational therapist, physiotherapist, respiratory therapist.
· 75 – student.
· The document is here: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/COVID19_healthcare_workers_2021_01_15.pdf
· BC has has opened 3 clinics for people with longer term Covid symptoms.
· Located at St. Paul’s Hospital, Vancouver General, and the Outpatient Care and Surgery Centre in Surrey.
· Some people still have symptoms months after the start of the disease. Of patients who were hospitalized in BC, after three months half still had breathing issues. About 20% have permanent lung scarring.
· The St. Paul’s clinic already has 160 patients.
· Nanaimo Regional Hospital has had an outbreak.
· Two staff and a patient tested positive.
· Limited to the 4th Floor on the east wing.
· A homeless shelter in Surrey has had an outbreak.
· 2 staff and 24 clients test positive.
· The Surrey Emergency Response Centre was set up to make more shelter available to homeless people during the pandemic.
Sources: CBC, New Westminster Record, Globe and Mail, BC Centre for Disease Control.

NATIONAL:
· Worked from home during Covid-19? Be sure to check out these tax tips: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/accountants-break-down-tips-for-working-from-home-expenses-1.5872477
· Covid has been in Canada for one year now, starting back on the 25th of January, 2020, with one case in Toronto.
· Long-terms care homes are particularly hard hit, and it continues to be so that care homes are getting outbreaks.
· From the CBC, “What we’re seeing in the long-term care facilities just demonstrates, unfortunately, years and years of neglect.” https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-canada-first-case-one-year-1.5884630
· In those early days, the public was generally told in Canada that the risk was low, and that people should not wear masks, and emphasized into March that there was no community spread.
· In late February, community transmission was evidenced in the U.S., and people returning to Canada from the U.S. began to show Covid. The halt to non-essential travel, on the land border, came on March 20.
· Canada is considering more travel restrictions, says the Canadian government.
· 143 flights have arrived in Canada in past two weeks with confirmed Covid cases. Deputy Prime Minister Freeland has assured, “We are considering the issue very, very seriously.”
· In this story, you can see where Canadians are flying during the pandemic. There sure seems to be a lot of urgent need to travel to places that happen to be warm vacation spots: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-travel-restrictions-1.5887163
· There is an 8 p.m. curfew in Montreal, and that is hard on the city’s homeless people.
· Homeless people have seen a dramatic reduction in help since the pandemic began. Shelters have to have social distancing, if they are safe to open at all.
· The province has refused to exempt homeless people from the curfew. People who break the curfew are subject to fines that start at $1,000 and can go up to $6,000. Premier Legault says making an exception for homeless people could cause people to pretend to be homeless.
· Some shelters have been forced to close altogether, because they can’t meet the requirements.
· Story: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-homeless-covid-curfew-1.5880946
· 90 “adverse events following immunization,” 0.015% of the 601,901 doses administered as of January 9th 2021.
· 63 were non-serious, 0.010%. This includes things like a skin rash.
· 27 were serious, 0.004%. In Canada, this includes a wide range of symptoms from headache to nausea to anaphylaxis.
· Learn about the Canada Adverse Events Following Immunization Surveillance System (CAEFISS) here: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/immunization/canadian-adverse-events-following-immunization-surveillance-system-caefiss.html
· Here is where the numbers are updated every Friday (but not consistently): https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccine-safety/#seriousNonSerious
· Manitoba is now requiring a 14 day quarantine for non-essential travel from other parts of Canada.
· The move is being made to attempt to prevent new variants of Covid-19 from entering the province.
· Applies to air and land travel.
· Includes Manitobans who are returning to the province from elsewhere.
Sources: CBC, Toronto Star, Public Health Canada

INTERNATIONAL:
· The world is experiencing Covid-somnia – an epidemic of insomnia.
· Insomnia is now at one-quarter of the population in the UK, and at 40% in Italy and Greece.
· There is concern that this is affecting people’s health in other ways.
· Work productivity is also affected.
· A University of Ottawa study of health care workers in 55 countries and 190,000 people showed that depression, anxiety, and PTSD have all risen at least 15% since the start of the pandemic. Insomnia has risen by over 23%.
· People are advised to seek help, which many are not as people avoid medical services, or those services are unavailable. Seeking help is important, because sleep issues over time can become and ongoing sleep disorder. “Tele-health” now makes treatment more available despite the pandemic.
· Working and using screens in bed is a big part of it. The recommendation is to use your bed only as a place of sleep.
· Full article: https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210121-the-coronasomnia-phenomenon-keeping-us-from-getting-sleep
· Vaccine delays are happening around the world.
· Canada is receiving zero doses this week.
· Health workers who were scheduled for vaccination were mostly notified by email of their cancellations.
· In Canada, 50% of doses will be delayed for up to four weeks, up to 400,000 doses delayed.
· Restoration of supply will happen in the European union before it happens in Canada. Pfizer explained this as differing contract deals but did not reveal details. Europe has also threatened to sue Pfizer for breach of contracts, and threatened to abandon Pfizer altogether as a supplier, perhaps in doing so catching the company’s attention.
· Pfizer and AstraZeneca say they will catch up to their commitments in the Spring. Pfizer says their delay is due to changing production systems, so a short-term shut down for a greater number of people vaccinated more rapidly overall. Pfizers says that they are upgrading to be able to produce 2 billion doses per year, from the current 1.3 billion. AstraZeneca has not given details.
· UPDATED: The Pfizer production facility in question is in Belgium. The European Union has threatened to ban exports of the vaccine if commitments to Europe are not met. The company is attempting to distribute the problem in the world somewhat equitably. If Europe followed through on the threat, that could mean delays for other countries would be longer, including Canada, which is served by the Belgium facility.
· The UK, having had Brexit and pulled out of the European Union, has realized that they, too, would be one of those outside countries. The UK, somewhat ironically, is now arguing against nationalism as government policy, referring to what they called “the dead end of vaccine nationalism.”
· The World Health Organization’s Covax program, to distribute vaccine around the world fairly to low-income countries, has not been affected, some good news in the mix. The Covax problem is still on schedule, as its vaccine supply is produced in India and South Korea. The program has also received a substantial boost, following US President Joe Biden’s decision to contribute $4 billion to the program.
· The CDC in the US says that allergic reactions to the vaccine are extremely rare.
· Out of 4 million given the Moderna vaccine, 10 had severe allergic reactions.
· Moderna – 2.5 per million doses have severe allergic reactions.
· Pfizer – 11.1 per million.
· Normal flu vaccine – 1.3 per million.
· Allergic reactions begin quickly, at a median of 7 and a half minutes, so people are able to be supported through it. The majority were known to have severe allergies in advance. In the US, all vaccination sites must have people trained in responding to anaphylaxis, or severe allergic reaction.
· Story: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/health/moderna-severe-allergic-reactions-rare/index.html
· A doctor in Texas has been arrested for stealing vaccine.
· The doctor stole 9 doses to give to his friends and family, authorities allege.
· A man lived in the Chicago O’Hare airport for three months because he was afraid to fly. Story: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55702003
· Los Angeles has lifted its air quality limitations for cremations. An emergency order was issued so that crematoriums can catch up with the number of bodies. One person every eight minutes was dying from Covid every 8 minutes. The rate of death in LA county is double the norm from past years. 13,800 deaths in the city, 7,400 currently hospitalized, and 23% of those in intensive care.
· Over 200 incidents with plane passengers over the wearing of masks have been reported in the U.S.
· The behaviour has included refusal to wear masks once onboard, shouting abusively at flight attendants, and even physical assault.
· On Thursday, President Biden issued an executive order requiring the wearing of masks across transportation, a move welcomed by flight unions.
· The FAA, Federal Air Administration, has introduced fines up to $35,000 and potential jailing for abusing aircraft personnel, a move made in December after two flight attendants were assaulted.
· One person has been fined $15,000 after hitting the flight attendant, and grabbing her phone away from her while she was notifying the captain of the problem. Another passenger was fined $7,500, who when asked to wear a mask approached other passengers without a mask and sexually harassed a flight attendant.
· Some airlines are banning passengers from their flights who refuse to follow the rules. United Airlines has banned 615 people from flying on the airline since June, Delta Airlines has banned 700.
· There is a lot of news about variants of the virus.
· New variants have appeared in Britain, South Africa, and Brazil, all countries that have had high rates of Covid.
· So, what about vaccines? Scientists have actually expected that vaccines would still work against the variants. Moderna says that antibodies triggered by their vaccine works on new variants in lab test results. More study will be needed of people who actually have been vaccinated and who had the variant. The study so far was a small sample of eight people. Early results with the Pfizer vaccine also show that it works against variants.
· Moderna is also studying to see if there is a benefit of giving a third booster shot.
· Reports vary almost daily about if the variants are more deadly or not. The truth is that data is too limited and it is too early to really tell.
· Covid job losses have been four times worse than in the financial crisis in 2009.
· That’s according to a report by the International Labor Organization.
· The report estimates that 8.8% of the world’s work hours were eliminated. The ILO looks not only at those who have become unemployed, but those who have had reduced hours of work as well. That loss is equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs, or $3.7 trillion dollars of income.
· Press release: https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_766949/lang--en/index.htm
· Study: COVID-19 and the world of work. Seventh edition. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_767028.pdf
· What’s the latest with the Tokyo Olympics?
· The government of Japan wants to go ahead with the Olympics that were delayed last summer.
· The Olympics are planned to start on July 23, and the Paralympics on August 24.
· The International Olympic Committee is currently planning on proceeding, but has not made a final decision. Efforts are underway to have Olympics that are Covid safe. That might mean no audiences, athletes restricted to their accommodation areas, and each sport would have to have protocols around training and competition areas.
· “We need the vaccine to come to Africa.” A note about Grandmothers in Zimbabwe. I encourage you to read this one: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55726054
Sources: BBC, Toronto Star, International Labor Organization, CNN, Los Angeles Times.

STATS (as of end of Monday)
CANADA
· 144 new deaths. 19,238 total.
· 5,628 new cases. 753,011 total.
· 1,222 fewer active. 62,446 total.
· 849 in critical care.
· 6,706 new recovered. 671,327 total.
USA
· 1,887 new deaths. 431,392 total.
· 152,244 new cases. 25,861,597 total.
· 9,812,845 active.
· 26,259 in critical care.
· 207,426 new recovered. 15,617,360 total.
WORLD
· 2,149,496 deaths.
· 100,286,772 cases.
· 72,315,474 recovered.
Sources: www.covid-19us.live/, https://www.covid-19canada.com/

Pandemic updates provided on a voluntary basis as a community service, on Tuesdays and Fridays unless circumstances do not allow (currently dealing with an injury that limits my typing).
To provide accurate and timely information, locally, provincially, nationally and internationally, all in one place.
Feel free to share.
With love and hope,
Jaimie McEvoy, City Councillor, New Westminster, B.C.
submitted by JaimieMcEvoy to NewWest [link] [comments]

Fraudberg Toolkit - Anti-Farm Bills Tweet templates - Part 1

The Greta Thunberg toolkit contained the following "templates" for users to chose from and tweet.
All of these are anti-Ambani, anti-Adani - basically spreading fear of corporates taking over. Most of these tweets are fake and intended to create chaos instead of a proper discussion.
eg. Even the rss trade organisations is against these agricultural reforms. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
If any of your friends have been tweeting about Farm bills and have the exact same text as one from below, then you know where they got it from :)
Here's the full list -
This act aimed at destroying them by handing over agriculture and market to the big corporates. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
This is a death warrant for small and marginalised farmers. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
The provisions in the Bills tilt in favour of multi-national corporations and domestic companies for whom the government has opened the doors for exports. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
MNC agents will become the new set of middle-men who will control farmers produce and pricing. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Farm bill is nothing but indirect handing over of farmers to Adhani and Ambani. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Food security of india will be decided by corporates who will decide what you should grow and eat. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Local markets and annachi shops will be closed and even to buy chilli ,Reliance will be the only option. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Like Ola Uber drivers , farmers also will be controlled by Big corporates and they will decide the crop to be cultivated. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
The difference between farm to fork will be grabbed by the Corporates operating out of US and Europe. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
As said by many activists ,it is the starting of the closure of the Ration shops as there will not be any government procurement of grains. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Hoarding of Grains and artificial scarcity will be created by the Corporates as they can buy in tonnes and hoard them for better rate. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Around winter in 2015 - the rate of Dal varieties reached Rs.200/- per kg. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Many reports had suggested large scale hoarding by a Adani Group company. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
It was under Essential commodity then, with that fig leaf gone - wait for chaos. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
This bill may lead to the wide spread introduction of GM crops because we all know the Nexus between Different corporates. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Government made hoarding legal by eradicating procurement/storage limits. Now the government will not know who has stored how much. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
states have not been consulted on changes in agriculture laws which seek to bypass the jurisdiction of states in creating new contracts between farmers and corporates. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Agriculture is a state subject without consulting the state government which is against federal strucure of the constitution. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
It is taking a big gamble with these new reforms in the middle of a pandemic-led chaos. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Even the rss trade organisations is against these agricultural reforms. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Under the proposed system, APMCs will be hard hit with trade moving out of their jurisdiction to zero tax in the private trade zone. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
the introduction of parallel private trade is designed to snatch their revenue and in due course make the entire APMC system collapse. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
It must not be forgotten that 60% of country’s farmers practice rain-fed agriculture and 85% farmers are small and marginal. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Farmers must not be pushed around into defending the government’s fast shifting goal-posts. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Contract farming and competitive pricing in itself has seeds of unequal farming which acts to the detriment of small and marginal farmers. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Through these Bills the government cannot abdicate its responsibility and leave farmers to market forces. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
With a landholding of less than two hectares and with hardly any bargaining power. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
This arrangement lacks the space for zero budget farming, natural farming and revival of nutrition foods, millets and coarse cereals. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
In future date MNC agents will become the new set of middle-men who will control farmers produce and pricing. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
There are leakages in the current system, and it needs to be reformed, but replacing one failed model with another is not the solution. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
This is a death warrant for small and marginalised farmers. This is aimed at destroying them by handing over agriculture and market to the big corporates. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
everything about these three Farm bills are crafted to fill the pockets of capitalist cronies of the BJP at the cost of the poor farmers - Punjab CM Amarinder Singh. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
these laws will do is to throw the small farmers to the big sharks (Corporates). #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Cereals,Pulses,Onions,Potatoes are removed from essential commodities. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
the new unregulated market space called the ‘trade area’ will have no oversight and the government will have no information or intelligence about who the players are, It Will lead to hoarding. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
exploitation of farmers is not just about prompt price payment but on other fronts too, starting from price discovery itself. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
this Bill does not give farmers what they need and they are asking for. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Is the government is legalising the hoarding which is against the consumer and farmers. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
If the government is so confident that its Bills are that good, it should not shy away from a proper parliamentary scrutiny of all details related to these Bills. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Corporates will buy from farmer at cheap rates and sell at higher price to consumers - Nirbay Singh President Kirti Kisan Union. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Farm bills will benefit big corporates, Not farmers. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
With this amendment, the power of government to regulate food commodity supply, storage, stock limits, etc is removed. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Once restrictions are removed, big companies like Adani, Reliance and Walmart can build huge processing and storage lines. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Farm bills will benefit only the Adanis and Ambanis. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Farm bills are ‘anti-farmer, anti-labour’ laws. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Farm Bills: A Corporate Feast In The Garb Of Reform. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
The state government will lose out a lot on their revenue because of the farm bills. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
More corporate entities will connect with the farmer, not to change the farmer’s fate but their own. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
The only stakeholde benefiting out of all of these Farm Bills are the corporates. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
All three bills of the Centre will leave farmers in the hands of big companies for exploitation. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Private players will buy the produce in harvest season, when prices are generally lower, and release it later when prices firm up. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Small and marginal farmers will suffer the most as they depend immensely on the intermediaries to sell the produce. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Small and marginal farmers will suffer the most as they depend immensely on the intermediaries to sell the produce. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Think why lakhs of farmers are resisting a thing which is projected as the best thing to have ever happened to them. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Govt is not favouring consumers, but corporates . #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
140 million Indian farmers are also consumers who are net buyers of food grains. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Food security of 70% of farmers themselves is an issue as they have been coaxed to take up far more riskier cash crops. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Pandemic has exposed the problems of mindless neoliberal capitalism and the discontent of the farmer community is going to find very major expression of discontent. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Rural distress is not just agriculture. Apart from farmers weavers too committed suicide. When farmers lose income weavers lose their markets . #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
The bills say that farmer can sell anywhere he wants! Wow! This is what happened to “ migrant labourers”. They could sell their labour anywhere they wanted. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
Govt has a pro- corporate intent. It may materialise with devastating consequences. Many more farmers would be deprived of the access they had. #FarmersProtest #TakeBackFarmBills
submitted by tailsiloseheadsuwin to Chodi [link] [comments]

The Bollywood film ‘Dhoom’ (2004), misinterpreted as an action thriller, is in fact a rigorous allegorical analysis of economic policies, particularly in the Indian context in the early ‘00s.

Spoilers ahead.
Connoisseurs of film are undoubtedly well-aware of La Nouvelle Vague, aka, the ‘New Wave’—an experimental movement in filmmaking with its origins in the French cinema of the 1950s, with an emphasis on exploration of personal themes such as existentialism, iconoclasm and absurdism. Although the ‘New Wave’ is considered to have met its chronological end in the late 1960s, to be followed by successive movements like ‘New Hollywood’, ‘Cinema Novo’ and ‘Dogme 95’, the influence of la nouvelle vague continues to be keenly felt in the artistic masterpieces of Bollywood production house YRF. Under the skillful hand of renowned auteur Aditya Chopra, the studio has produced a lineup of commercially successful arthouse flicks that continue the French filmmaking renaissance of the ‘50s, successfully infusing avant-garde storytelling techniques with high production values and modern Indian themes. Nowhere is this revolutionary vision more evident than in films like DDLJ (a masterpiece in abstract, absurdist storytelling), Mohabbatein (a sensitive examination of the taboo topic of attitudes towards adolescent self-gratification), Kal Ho Naa Ho (an ambitious adaptation of historian David McCullough’s book 1776), Jab Tak Hai Jaan (a religio-philosophical drama that engages in debate upon the tenets of Christianity, Shaivism, and the cultural taboo of Kala Pani) and, of course, the Dhoom franchise.
As YRF’s most popular franchise, the Dhoom series has, with each installment, made great independent strides in cinematic theory and practice. Although—as read above—YRF films explore a wide, varying range of topics as a whole, the Dhoom franchise focuses exclusively on the examination and discussion of economic and socio-economic matters of policy and practice in the Indian context. Over the course of 3 films, the discourse acquires a rich depth, with the analysis of issues including the economic costs and benefits of national highway construction, the clash between entrepreneurial aspirations and the security of bureaucratic employment, the 2008 economic recession in the BRICS context, and the causes and consequences of non-performing bank loans and a profiling of defaulters of on said loans. Indeed, a first course on Indian economics at any prestigious institution may well be framed around careful viewing and discussion of the Dhoom films. In the careful hands of Aditya Chopra and Vijay Krishna Acharya (Dhoom 1/2/3, Tashan, Thugs of Hindostan), each Dhoom film achieves a delicate balance between the overt cops-and-robbers heist story and the covert exploration of complex economic schools of thought.
As the 1st film in the franchise, Dhoom (2004) establishes the storytelling framework for the films to come, and by itself explores the challenges and opportunities presented by Indian economic policymaking in the early ‘00s. The film features an all-round star-studded cast, with support from Honorary Roadie & Stardust Awards nominee Esha Deol, Star’s Sabsey Award winner Rimi Sen, and Indian Telly Award nominee Arav Chowdharry. At the film’s helm are Lions Club Award winner John Abraham, Sansui Award winner Abhishek Bachchan, and Emmy nominee Uday Chopra. Series regulars Bachchan and Chopra play Jai and Ali respectively, Jai being a policeman and Ali a small-time mechanic with a penchant for fast bikes and disinterested women. Abraham essays the villainous role of Kabir, part-time restaurant waiter and part-time leader of a gang of biker thieves.
The film begins with a series of daring heists pulled off by Kabir’s gang, relying on their high-speed bikes to orchestrate sudden thefts and promptly escape the scene soon after. Their exploits catch the eye of Jai, a lifetime appointee to the post of Assistant Commissioner of Police. Jai, however, finds himself out of his depth and through a series of accidents, makes the acquaintance of Ali, a mildly-seedy mechanic and bike racer. Initially reluctant to be associated with law enforcement, Ali is eventually induced to join Jai’s cause and attempt to chase down Kabir and his merry band of men. Dhoom is slow and deliberate in its setup, and the film’s early minutes are heavy on subtext and detail, therefore, it is essential to take in the plot in small increments, so as to be thorough with one’s analysis.
In an allegorical sense, Jai, as a police officer, represents bureaucratic authority and the security, comforts and powers of government employment. Abraham’s Kabir, as a thief, is a laissez-faire capitalist, relying on his material advantage in the form of fast bikes and his manpower advantage in the form of skilled bikers to partake in a series of one-sided transactions with economic entities such as banks and government funds. In this sense, the act of robbery in Dhoom is merely a transaction between two private parties wherein one side gains an unfair amount at the other’s expense, absent external interventionism. In addition to being a free-market advocate, Kabir is also an employee at a pizza parlour, which seems to be the film’s attempt at exploring both the growing role of the service economy as a share of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the amorphous nature of employment within the modern ‘gig’ economy. Caught between the competing ideas of state-control and free capitalism, Chopra’s Ali is a stand-in for the directionless youth, lured by the safety and dignity of a government job, whilst simultaneously seduced by the potential for greater wealth presented by free-market capitalism. The film’s plot is overt in this depiction, with Ali simultaneously fearful of Jai’s authority, yet desirous of wielding said authority as an employed policeman. Furthermore, in an action sequence set in Mumbai’s Chor Bazaar—a flea market specializing in illegally-hawked goods—Jai and Ali get into a fight with goons in the market, and are forced to make a hasty escape after being outnumbered. Ali bringing Jai to the market illustrates his ties to the informal, underground economy—a large, undocumented component of the Indian economy—and Jai’s subsequent fleeing the scene highlights the failed outcome of government attempts to regulate this grey economy by force and bluster.
Initially at a loss for clues, Jai is eventually able to deduce that Kabir’s bikers arrange their heists in close proximity to highways, providing as the highways do quick getaways after. This is no doubt an allusion to the economic importance of the National Highways Authority of India’s flagship ‘Golden Quadrilateral’ national highway construction project. Kabir, the raw capitalist, is empowered in his capitalistic pursuits by the government’s infrastructure investments, and John Abraham’s moody expression throughout the film is in no small part perhaps due to the discontentment within Kabir’s mind about his enterprise’s dependence on resources provided by the state. Having deduced Kabir’s MO, Jai and Ali attempt to catch him in the act. However, Kabir and his gang appear to have substantially faster bikes than Jai and Ali, which is undoubtedly an allusion to the government’s perceived ineptitude and inability to generally compete with private enterprise. Left chafing and chasing the dust, Jai catches a lucky break when an overconfident Kabir offers him a clue about his upcoming crime, with the catch being that if Jai fails to avert it, he must recuse himself from the case and leave Kabir to his entrepreneurial pursuits. Kabir, the staunch capitalist, is here hinting at the idea of termination clauses in Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), agreements between enterprises and governments for mutual benefit. Whilst the government naturally retains the right to sever the partnership at any point, Kabir clearly believes that he, as the private party, is also entitled to terminate the contract should the government, aka Jai, default on the agreed-upon terms. Formally known as the ‘Authority Default’ concept, Dhoom represents this idea in the form of a simple, easy to understand challenge between Jai and Kabir.
Even as this layered conflict plays out between Jai and Kabir, Ali is enamoured by the mysterious ‘Dilbara’ (Esha Deol). Little is known about Dilbara, however, like other characters in the film, it may be reasonably assumed than she is also an allegorical depiction of an economic concept. Ali’s infatuation with her suggests that she is perhaps intended to be portrayed as a vague, undefined avenue of aspirational employment. Furthermore, the fact that she (as is later revealed) is in fact a part of Kabir’s gang, yet also harbours feelings for Ali, leads one to conclude that Dilbara represents a form of compromise between dirigisme, aka restrictive state-controlled economy, and laissez-faire anarcho-capitalism. The filmmakers leave the specifics of this compromise vague, however, Dilbara’s skimpy outfits perhaps represent the scantiness of opportunities presented by this nebulous alternative.
Returning to the main plot, Jai, despite being forewarned, fails to foil Kabir’s next robbery, despite being able to take down one of his gang in the process. Left short of a gang member, Kabir attempts to recruit Ali, left sidelined by Jai following their failure to catch Kabir. The jilted Ali readily embraces Kabir’s neoliberal worldview and the duo jet off to Goa, where Kabir has his eyes set on one final score from a casino. Subtextually, the casino and gambling in general represent what is in Kabir’s eyes an essential component of his brand of capitalism—rampant speculation and volatility that may be manipulated to one’s benefit. There may also be an addition reference to British academic Susan Strange’s seminal 1986 work Casino Capitalism, a critique of unregulated banking and financial systems. However, Kabir is more likely than not to be derisive of such thoughts, and therefore, if this reference was intended, it may merely be made to indicate the filmmakers’ complete mastery over both Keynesian and Austrian schools of economic thought.
The importance of dance numbers in YRF films cannot be overstated. Even as Bollywood music gravitates towards being little more than catchy jingles designed to elicit maximum publicity, the music and dance numbers in YRF films complement the plot perfectly, serving to both entertain and narrate. Dhoom is no exception to this tradition of excellence. On the eve of Kabir’s final heist, an inebriated Jai shows up at the casino, claiming to have left police employment and moved on. Kabir, however, is rightly suspicious, given as Jai is still a cop, and is merely attempting to lure Kabir into a false sense of comfort as a prelude to catching him in the act. This Jai accomplishes by putting on a song-and-dance in front of Kabir to convince him of his abandonment of state-sponsored socialism and his embrace of Kabir’s unrestrained capitalism. The song is entitled ‘Salamee’, a clever homophone of ‘salami’, a sausage that consists primary of beef. The consumption of beef was, in a landmark 2005 Supreme Court judgement, forbidden on grounds on anti cow-slaughter laws. Kabir, as an opponent of government intervention, would likely have been opposed to the idea of such a restriction being imposed upon him. Therefore, to show his solidarity to the cause, Jai takes to the stage in front of Kabir and sways to the refrain of “Naye kal ko aao kare, hum karein, karein/Salami, salami, salami/Kar le salami…”.
The subterfuge is apparently successful, and a placated Kabir is lulled into a false sense of security by Jai’s reinforcement of his worldview. However, as mentioned, Jai’s conversion is little more than a ruse, and a hoodwinked Kabir is successfully caught in the act by Jai and Ali, who is revealed to have been Jai’s mole all along. The ever-slippery Kabir, however, weasels his way out of Jai’s clutches, and flees with his loot. Although Dhoom 3 would better address the phenomenon of loan defaulters taking flight from the verge of captivity, Dhoom too takes a cursory look at the occurrence, although Kabir does not quite embody a loan defaulter. He is merely the free-market capitalist, the robber baron caught flouting regulations and fleeing from the consequences of government intervention. A long chase sequence ensues, with Kabir fleeing but ultimately cornered by Jai and Ali at the precipice of a sea-facing cliff. Facing a choice between certain captivity and death, Kabir chooses to fly off the cliff with the last of his loot. In a literal sense, Kabir merely dies by falling off the cliff into the sea. In a figurative sense, faced with the prospect of his enterprise being forced to comply with ungainly regulations, Kabir chooses instead to offshore his business, and make for better waters, thus bringing his character arc to a natural and satisfying conclusion. A frustrated Jai bemoans his end, representing the government’s exasperation at ultimately failing to bring a rogue enterprise to heel. Ali, having seen his capitalistic expectations dive off a cliff with Kabir, chooses in the film’s final shot, to finally pursue the path to safe, steady, state-sponsored employment after all, asking Jai if he finally is a bona-fide police officer, as the film fades to black.
The topical nature of Dhoom is a cause for admiration, even a decade and a half after its release. The film successfully ties together strands of economic and socio-economic thought from its time—the ‘Golden Quadrilateral’ project received a major fillip in the first years of the new millennium, the service sector encountered a boom around the same time, as did the contribution of outsourcing to employment and economic growth. The rise of men like Kabir is perfectly timed in the post-License Raj years, as the country embraced capitalism over state socialism. Yet, the lure of stable, ‘safe’ government employment holds true, and powers men like Jai and seduces men like Ali. Dilbara’s unknown fate at the end of the film—left waiting for Ali by the side of a road—is representative of the uncertain outcomes of economic models with time. On a meta note, the Dhoom franchise’s casting of Abhishek Bachchan and Uday Chopra in every film is a nod to the ‘Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act’ of 2005, a flagship government initiative that guarantees employment for a certain number of days out of the year, in the form of unskilled labour.
In summation, Dhoom rightly deserves its place as a seminal film in the annals of both YRF and Indian cinema. In its own right, it is a bold, experimental film that marries erudition to entertainment. It is also the progenitor of its celebrated franchise, providing the springboard from which future films would explore similar issues in an equally deft and precise fashion. To YRF, the Dhoom franchise, and Indian cinema, the film Dhoom is nothing short of a bottle of nitrous oxide, that when attached to a bike, propels it into the stratosphere.
submitted by throwaway_intuition to india [link] [comments]

Enphase Energy post-earnings announcement

Enphase Energy post-earnings announcement
Hi all,
Yesterday Enphase Energy published their Q4 2020 results. See my earlier DD here: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lfdy2w/enphase_energy_enph_preearnings_feb_9_extensive_dd/
With this post I would like to discuss the results and the web-call with regard to future growth/earnings. So far my investment in Enphase was a solid move (5% after-market), let’s hope that this momentum will increase. I have divided this post in three chapters: results, web-cast management notes and analyst Q&A. However, before we continue let me first do a short into on the new C-suite hire.
Chief Marketing Officer
Enphase recently announced that they hired Allison Johnson as Chief Marketing Officer. Who is Mrs. Johnson and why did they hire her at this moment? Are sales declining or are there some amazing plans in the pipeline?
“Johnson brings decades of executive marketing experience to Enphase, including serving as chief marketing officer at PayPal, where she led a global marketing transformation, and as vice president of marketing communications at Apple, Inc., where she helped launch some of Apple’s most iconic products and campaigns of the Steve Jobs era. Johnson received her Bachelor of Science degree in journalism and communications at the University of Florida.”
When checking her Linkedin, she started working at IBM as a Media Relations Director, moved to Netscape (1 year) à HP (6 years) à Apple (6 years) à West (7 years) à Paypal (1.5 years).
Let leave it here for now.
Results Q4 2020:
· We reported revenue of $264.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, along with 40.2% for non-GAAP gross margin. We shipped approximately 762 megawatts DC, or 2,292,132 microinverters.
· Revenue of $264.8 million
· Cash flow from operations of $84.2 million; ending cash balance of $679.4 million
· GAAP gross margin of 46.0%; non-GAAP gross margin of 40.2%
· GAAP operating income of $79.1 million; non-GAAP operating income of $72.4 million
· GAAP net income of $73.0 million; non-GAAP net income of $71.3 million
· GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.50; non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.51

https://preview.redd.it/0p36krxrumg61.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a22f5ec7452ecfbb765678468c2698d7b14ab9f
This was their forecast for Q4 2020:
For the fourth quarter of 2020, Enphase Energy estimates both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results as follows:
· Revenue to be within a range of $245.0 million to $260.0 million; revenue guidance does not include any safe harbor shipments
· GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 37.0% to 40.0%, excluding the recovery of the remaining $16.0 million tariff refund that has not yet been approved; non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding tariff refund and stock-based compensation expenses
· GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $51.0 million to $54.0 million, including $16.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related amortization
· Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $35.0 million to $38.0 million, excluding $16.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related amortization
So one can say that they performed extremely well.
Management notes web-call:
Badri:
Let's now talk about manufacturing. Our operations team did a great job flexing manufacturing as 2020 played out. When the pandemic began, we cut manufacturing in Q2 of 2020 and then had to quickly ramp back up to meet the surge in demand in Q3 and Q4. The production in Q4 was more than two times the level in Q2. I'm very pleased with the ramp of our Mexico factory that met our target of producing more than 1 million units in Q4.”
“As part of our supply chain strategy to diversify production to tariff free and cost competitive locations globally, we began microinverter production at Salcomp, India in October of 2020 and started shipping to customers during Q4. We have a high quality state-of-the-art automated line with a quarterly production capacity of 0.5 million units and the space to add a second line with the same capacity. The production ramp is going very well and we expect to produce approximately 400,000 microinverters in India in Q1.”
“Let's now move on to the regions. Our US and international revenue mix for Q4 was 82% and 18%.”
“In Europe, we reported record revenue for Q4. Revenue increased 10% sequentially. On an annual basis, the revenue from Europe increased 32% in 2020.”
“In Australia, we built on our strong Q3 results and achieved record quarterly sell-through and record installer count in Q4. The results were fueled by the launch of our Enphase Installer Network or EIN as well as growing demand for our high power IQ 7A microinverters plus a favorable competitive environment as regulations continued to shift towards safer and smarter solar. We expect to introduce our Enphase Storage system for the Australian market during the fourth quarter of 2021.”
“In Latin America, we reported record quarterly revenue. Puerto Rico showed strength for our microinverter systems as well as our storage systems.”
“At the same time, the uptick in broad economic activity has stressed the global semiconductor supply chain. We are seeing constraints on a few semiconductor components used in our microinverters.”
There are two specific components that we are constrained on. One is our ASIC that goes into the micro and the other is the AC FET drivers that actually drive the high voltage FET. There the name of the game is we are qualifying multiple more sources so that we have more supply as well as expediting product. And I am in direct touch with the CEOs of those companies and they are helping as much as they can. We expect to get all caught up basically by early April. Our top priority through all of this is to ensure that we take care of customers. So we will do whatever it takes in order to ensure their lines are running and that they are not affected. So that's on the microinverter side.”
“You will see a lot more going forward. So we continue to grow at a nice clip. You can do the math. If we continue to grow at this 30%, soon we will need a third supplier, that might happen in 2022 and we are already talking to those people”
TL:DR: They are growing in every aspect. They are trying to train installers internationally (Australia, Europe, South-America). Ones these installers are trained appropriately, they will start installing the products. Enphase will rather wait with the installment to only send very trained personnel, then just let a shitty installer do the job.
Q&A:
Q1: “Thanks for taking our questions and congrats on the quarter. So you said you'll start shipping IQ 8 in 2Q. How should we think about IQ 8's standalone pricing versus IQ 7? What may be the range on the premium and might you expect over time a majority of installers shifting more toward IQ 8 versus IQ 7 or is the jury out on that question still?”
A1: “With regarding whether people are going to adopt IQ 8 over IQ 7, we think the answer is a no brainer. It's going to be, yes. IQ 8 is a grid-independent microinverter system. So, therefore, I expect the adoption to be high when it is released and there are obviously a lot of combinations with IQ 8 and in some cases, people might prefer to buy IQ 8 with a smarter storage system and we will be promoting the heck out of it.”
Q2: “Okay. Thank you. And just on the R&D cycle, are there any updates you can provide on the development of IQ 9 where that currently stands at this time? Is it still being developed or is it in testing phase? If you can provide any color there? Thank you.”
A2: “Yeah. We are actually working on IQ 9 at this time and IQ 9, our vision is basically obviously smaller, cheaper, faster, producing a lot more power than IQ 8. Right now, we are focused on a few areas. One is, we'd like to see how to reduce the footprint of the transformers, the [indiscernible] (00:49:10), the 600-volt AC FET devices through some semiconductor process innovation. GaN transistors are becoming widespread. GaN-on-GaN, GaN-on-silicon, they are becoming widespread.”
Q3: “And just on the new acquisitions and the digital strategy, could you maybe talk about like what's the goal here in terms of reducing that soft cost? I think a couple in the solar developers have talked about $7,000 or $8,000 per customer of soft costs. So, is the idea here to kind of like bring it down similar to probably what the soft cost is in Europe and Australia or what's your thought process here? And I have just a quick follow-up after that as well. Thanks.
Yeah. So, soft cost is an outcome of what our goal is. Our goal is to provide our installer partners with the best service possible, and so – installer partners actually as well as the homeowner. So, we have mapped out a very detailed journey of both how the entire installation process as well for both the installers as well as our homeowners starting with leads all the way through design, proposal, permitting, procurement, commissioning, installation commissioning, permission to operate O&M, et cetera. And so, if we do an amazing job on that where we really create a very powerful platform and these acquisitions that we're talking about are important elements of that journey, then I think the natural outcome of that is going to be a reduction in the soft cost. But we are starting with a very clear focus that this is about bringing great value for our long-tail installer partners.”
My thoughts:
Staying invested in a company post-earnings is normally not our strategy. We scan every company on the earnings calendar and dive in the fundamentals/growth of that company. If you find 3 solid companies which you want to gamble your money on per week, there is a possibility to earn 10% ROI on each of those companies. Investing in boomer company of which the stock increases 2% post-earnings is not interesting for us. It rather be +7% at least, or nothing.
Enphase however is a different story. They keep beating their forecasts every quarter. There is enormous demand for their products and they a growing in supply and demand.
- Management is amazing. The way Badri perceives the business is very client focused. They are well aware that this is a client focused business and quality and client experience are top priority.
- With regards to future growth they have some very interesting things going on. IQ 8, which I expect to be finished during the 2nd quarter of this year. Then it is the job of the new CMO to promote the heck out of this. As Badri said in the call: “people might prefer to buy IQ 8 with a smarter storage system and we will be promoting the heck out of it.”
- There is so much growth opportunity in this company. And yes the P/E is high, but you must see Enphase as a tech company and not solar producer. Last quarter they hired 85 employees.
- So our plan: keep this gem for one more quarter to see how their results are in the next quarter. Have they improved their semiconductors problem or not? Are they still beating the forecast or not. Then we’ll see from there on. This weekend’s plan: scan earnings calendar of next week to find the next gem 😊
Q1 2021 forecasts:
For the first quarter of 2021, Enphase Energy estimates both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results as follows:
• Revenue to be within a range of $280.0 million to $300.0 million; revenue guidance does not include any safe harbor shipments
• GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 37.0% to 40.0%, as there are no remaining tariff refunds pending approval; non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding stock-based compensation expenses
• GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $64.0 million to $67.0 million, including $22.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related costs and amortization
• Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $42.0 million to $45.0 million, excluding $22.0 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses and acquisition related costs and amortization
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