Hi all hope your Palantir investment has been good to you so far. I’ve been thinking if the company would have any competitions in the future and thought that maybe fellow bulls may appreciate some confirmation bias... and hopefully legit novel insights.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I’m just sharing my thoughts for entertainment and/or educational purposes and maybe learn some new things. My post have insights borrowed from other posts and I’ll add you in the credits if requested.
Thesis: Palantir is bullish for foreseeable years.
Argument 1: technical debt paid off - Their value proposition is mostly real-time access and processing for all data assets. So instead of the decision makeadvisor having 30 tabs open viewing 30 different databases, plus a couple more to make charts and maps, they would only need 1 that also runs smooth as silk. - To replicate that, a disruptor would need in their biz model at least 4 things: a way to translate existing separate databases (eg 30 excel sheets databases) into one; multiple statistical algorithms to run data analysis on that integrated db; a well thought out user interface that lets users do whatever they wanted with the data; and brand. - Can a teenager in a garage replicate thing 1-3? Yes. But not 4. As long as Palantir isn’t complacent with upgrading its tech it can lean on brand equity to squash out any new upstarts and remain dominant. Trust is also a big thing that’s not so easily earned. - From what I’ve heard Palantir product’s current bottleneck is step 1 where they need forward deployed engineers to do the translating whole 30 excel sheets into 1 db thing. The stats algos and UI are fast, which means they’ve already worked out and optimized their CDN and web asset delivery and page load pipelines. Think of how fast Youtube streaming is or how fast Google landing page loading speed is compared to competitors. It takes a lot of infrastructure to make the magic speed happen, and that’s also where the ever so important first impression occurs. That means aside from brand equity, the suave loading speed of Palantir UI will help it outcompete any others with a replicated tech stack (anyone can process excel sheets and write stat algos these days) due to them having more invested CDNs and ‘loading speed’ infrastructure. Plus the trust brand thing. - For an org to gain these capabilities by themselves, they need to pay all the technical debt to in-house R&D the shit out of their data stuff while also having the confidence that they can at least replicate Palantir offerings to avoid opportunity cost. So big techs like Google and Facebook probably won’t use Palantir, but governments and non tech companies will. In-house R&D can be a bitch...
Argument 2: increased demand (mostly speculative) - The Air Force is using it? Chances are the Space Force will too 🚀 - Revitalized US multilateral international relations: more of a gamble, but this might mean the gov and mil and companies of Japan and the EU and other US allies would be influenced by the bandwagon effect and get courted into this cool edgy new Call of Duty esque computer platform. - Current White House narrative is science driven governing, so that means data driven to less sciency gov entities, so that means more Palantir contracts. - Companies execs out of fear for opportunity cost will be drawn to allocate their consultant budget on Palantir 🤷🏻‍♂️ - This is all speculative and relies on stonk 🚀 PRs fueled by the bandwagon effect focused around try hard decision makers adopting edgy data tools, but it’s likely.
Argument 3: great value proposition - Imagine how it’d be pitched in budget allocations meetings: ‘guys, remember that incident where it took us days to track down the data and a couple more days to make pretty charts for them? They built an app for that!’ Who wouldn’t say yes to that 🚀🚀 - In military and gov sectors where time is vital and works off hella different kinds of data and everybody is fed up with dumb ass boomer IT systems, and IT personnel frankly don’t get paid enough for R&D shit, Palantir just make people go ‘Hell Yeahhh.’ Its use is prob mostly for ops, real or training, and once officers learned to use them they’ll probably never downgrade. - Its use in companies would be mostly to make pretty charts in reports, or high powered problem shooting. So basically mid management all the way up to execs will have a use. And frankly, no corporate leadership will ever choose to downgrade from Palantir once adopted. Education system and professional community place a deep premium on data-driven decisions, so nobody’s gonna be ‘that guy’ that says ‘boo to them charts’ at the corporate meeting or press events. - So basically, people like charts and we like cool and edgy data tools that makes you feel like an American hero playing call of duty but irl. Palantir provides for those fundamental human needs 🦍🦍🦍🍌🍌🍌
Argument 4: stonks go up - every single country on Earth issued stimulus and printed money. That means there’s now more money on this planet despite less productivity over past year. That means the secret sauce is predicting where all that excess money will go. Prices for instant ramen didn’t fluctuate much, so probably all that money is going to ‘investment devices.’ If it goes into somebody’s portfolio, it’ll be in the stock market. If it goes into somebody’s savings account, it’ll be in the banks portfolio, ending up in the stock market. If it goes into cash buried in somebody’s backyard... lol probably negligible in modern societies. Eitherway, that means stonks value ‘artificially’ go up for a while (read: stonks won’t be tightly correlated to existing revenue for a while) till people cash in on gains once economy reopens. - Palantir has meme stonk power. That is, positive retail investor interest and relatively better dip tolerance.
TLDR: Palantir’s got the electrolytes that people crave.
Conclusion: - Go LEAPS or calls or shares and 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Position: - Pltr 40 37c 3/5

Your 14-minute Thursday report in 3497 words. Part 1.

anti-corruption: Defense Ministry official busted with bribery & tampering with draft during war

NSS report says: a Colonel, who had oversight over subdivisions, received a ֏975K bribe from a conscript to transfer him to another location on Sep-13-2020. Part of the bribe was transferred to his online gambling account.
When the war began, a draft was declared and recruits began training at a location in Armenia. The Colonel took a ֏1.2M bribe from a soldier in exchange for not sending him to the front lines.
During the winter draft, the Colonel took a ֏5.2M bribe from another conscript and used his connections to send him to the desired service location. A similar ֏1M bribe was requested on January 6th from another recruit.
The Colonel took another ֏1.4M bribe to help promote a conscript and allow him to work at a hospital instead of regular service.
On October 22nd, during the war, the Colonel decided to help a friend move from bordering Khndzoresk (Syunik) hospital back to Yerevan. As a result, the clinic became understaffed and couldn't fulfill its duties. Moreover, the Colonel then helped the same friend not to be deployed on Syunik borders as a soldier and instead to handle tasks in the rear, on October 26th, in exchange for a ֏300K bribe.
On October 13th, during the war, the Colonel and his accomplices wanted to help a soldier to leave Artsakh. When they learned that the latter was already on the "deserted" list, they took steps to remove him from the list.
Then, he learned that his friends' sons received a draft notice, and use his connections to remove them from the draft list.
After the war, on Dec-13, a friend asked the Colonel to make sure that his son, who was serving in Lusakert, wasn't sent to the front lines. The Colonel contacted the Lusakert facility but learned that the soldier was not among those who were supposed to be sent to the front lines. Nonetheless, the Colonel decided to defraud his friend by claiming that "he took care of it", and received a ֏200K bribe.
The colonel and over a dozen others were arrested. Illegal weapons were found under their possession. The investigation continues to expose other possible suspects.
https://youtu.be/ifo13WJLpsU
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042334.html

bill: harsher punishment for treason, spying, espionage

BHK MPs drafted a bill to increase punishment for traitors, spies, passing of state secrets. They want to raise the maximum punishment from 15 years to 20-life. The authors explained the move by citing many media reports about alleged "treason" incidents.
The bill was discussed at a relevant Parliamentary committee. The chairman QP MP Vladimir said he supports life imprisonment as the minimum punishment. However, during the discussion, they agreed to settle on 15-20 years plus property confiscation, or a life sentence.
The committee found the espionage punishment too harsh and asked the bill author to reduce it from 15 to 12 years. The BHK author agreed.
The bill was approved unanimously and will be debated/voted on the Parliament floor later.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042354.html

Jalal is back with another position

The wounded ex-Artsakh army commander Jalal Harutyunyan will serve as the Republic of Armenia's Defense Ministry's Head of the Military Control Service. He will replace General Movses Mosi Hakobyan who quit on November 18th.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042353.html

Russian-Turkish ceasefire monitoring group begins operations

Russian troops are using ORLAN-10 and FORPOST drones to monitor Am-AZ troop locations and movements.
https://youtu.be/ToSLqUDj6OE
https://factor.am/335089.html

ECHR received Armenia's complaint against Azerbaijan regarding 228 POWs / Azeris counter-claim for 13 POWs

Armenian families submitted a petition to ECHR to require Azerbaijan to provide information regarding 228 individuals. Azeris want to know data about 13 people.
(From the language it is unclear to me whether the petition is for confirmed POWs, or it also includes families of missing soldiers who want to know whether their relatives are POWs. Likely the former.)
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042406.html

Red Cross visited 4 Armenian POWs in Azerbaijan

They were able to establish contact with families.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042428.html

Russia expects UNESCO to soon visit Armenian monuments that went under Azeri control

https://factor.am/335437.html

Russia removed tomato import ban on 13 Armenian firms

Russian regulator will allow 13 Armenian sellers to export tomato and pepper to Russia again after earlier finding a food virus in them. A similar ban was implemented against Azeri tomatoes.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042433.html

US Congressman demands an explanation from the US ambassador to Azerbaijan over "congratulatory" statement

Rep. Bred Sherman wants to know why the US ambassador to Azerbaijan Lee Litzenberger congratulated Azerbaijan's Economy Minister with "de-occupying territories and US's willingness to aid Azerbaijan with rebuilding those territories". He reminded the US officials that the US is a member of the Minsk Group and should take steps to ensure Artsakh's safety and prevention of a new war.
Bred Sherman praised Biden's appointee Anthony Blinken for stating that the US will review its military assistance to Azerbaijan after the latest war in Artsakh.
Artsakh MFA yesterday released a statement urging countries, officials, and organizations to refrain from such "congratulatory" statements.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042370.html

de-occupy Hadrut NGO

... aims to help 13,500 Hadrut residents who lost their homes during the war. It was founded during the war by activists who held protests in front of various embassies. In the early days, they received aid from President Sarkissian's office. The latter gave shelter to 25 families.
Today the NGO aims to help refugees with employment, while simultaneously lobbying for Minsk Group to de-occupy Hadrut so residents can return. "I hope that one day our NGO will shut down because Hadrut is no longer occupied," said co-founder Meri Davtyan.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042286.html

govt session: financial aid for Syunik border villagers

The government approved a new aid package for residents of Syunik's Shurnukh and Vorotan villagers. Those who lost their homes will qualify for the same aid package as Artsakh refugees: one-time ֏300K payment plus monthly ֏65K payments for 6 months. There is another pending aid package to build new houses for them.
Context: Two dozen houses in Vorotan and Shurnukh went under Azeri control because they were built on the Azeri side of the internationally-recognized borders.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042362.html

bill: disability ranking to be replaced with degrees of functionality impairment

The government approved a bill, yet to be approved by Parliament, to reform the disability system. The disability assessment process will analyze the person's level of functional impairment while taking into account surrounding conditions.
"Today, the system is run under a 1993 law that does not do a comprehensive assessment of the surrounding environment, person's ability to function in public life," says the govt.
The draft bill will repeal the 1-3 Categories and Disabled Child category. A person's functionality impairment degrees will be light, medium, heavy, or deep. Disability will no longer be considered a permanent health problem. The assessment will be based not only on the factor of health problems but also on the environmental factors of the person's activity and participation in public life.
Healthcare and Social Ministries, NGOs, the UN, and the EU worked together to create and test an assessment methodology.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042365.html
Tags: #DisabilityLaw #disabled

bill: require unknown Telegram/Facebook media channel owners identified before "linking" by mass media

QP MPs want to require social media channel operators identified before a "mainstream media" can link to them. It doesn't restrict citing "anonymous sources", however. It also requires outlets to disclose sources of revenues for transparency. Read yesterday's news for context and arguments in favor or against it.. The debate continued today.
QP MP Arthur: For example, a legitimate news organization with an editorial staff of 30 people generates information, holds interviews, etc., while a Telegram channel that we do not know where it is managed from and by whom, begins to disseminate sensationalized information and over time becomes more "legitimate" than real media outlets because media outlets "advertised" them.
This is also a national security risk because it is very possible that such sources are being operated by an adversary country to spread instability and an atmosphere of fear in the country. //
The co-author criticized the critics who "claimed that the bill intends to ban anonymous sources. That's not true. This also won't affect the protection of journalists' source secrecy."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042357.html
If you're interested in more debates:
https://youtu.be/MTHwRa4YjgY , https://youtu.be/ThDNVwZYEp8 , https://youtu.be/S6C_NocS9N0 , https://youtu.be/3_-i2Z23ubI , https://youtu.be/wiPnmfeLNJ8
Tags: #MediaLaw #TelegramLaw #FreeSpeech

rumors and rebuttals: Artsakh army isn't being dissolved

Serj's won-in-law Mishik earlier circulated rumors that were denied by state officials. Today, Kocharyan-ally Vitali Balasanyan, who serves as Artsakh's Security Council chief, confirmed that the army isn't "disintegrating." After the restructuring process, there will be subdivisions with professional contractors, he said.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html

rumors and rebuttals: Azeri flag won't fly over Artsakh govt buildings

Vitalik Balasanyan also denied rumors about Azeri flags being installed on Artsakh govt buildings in Stepanakert.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html

rumors and rebuttals: Azeri families won't resettle in Stenapakert / none are shopping in market

Vitalik Balasanyan said there are false rumors about two districts in Stepanakert being populated by Azeris, and Azeris allegedly freely shopping in Stepanakert market.
"Dear citizens of Artsakh, on behalf of the authorities of the Artsakh Republic, I assure you that despite the irreparable losses inflicted on us as a result of the war, the state is always committed to fulfilling its responsibilities to ensure the security and normal life of the population. Accordingly, I urge you not to pay attention to the false news. Everything is being done to create and expand the necessary conditions for a dignified life of the people of Artsakh."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html

rumors and rebuttals: Artsakh envoy won't stop operating in Russia

The Permanent Representation of the Artsakh Republic in Russia will not be terminated, said the Artsakh govt in response to rumors.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042367.html

rumors and rebuttals: no single currency in EAEU trade bloc

EAEU would like to inform you that you've been misled about alleged plans to establish a single currency among member-states.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042427.html

location "Hollywood, Yerevan, Armenia"

There is a district called Hollywood in Yerevan, Armenia. Gamblers were caught running an underground casino in there. This is the second such bust in the past few months. The police say ֏5.5B in damages was done to the state.
https://youtu.be/sp0Sb--e_ms?t=60
https://factor.am/335320.html

anti-corruption: prosecutors charge education officials with ֏1.2B auction shenanigans

Prosecutors said: State Oversight Committee (SOC) audited the "National Center for Educational Technology" government-affiliated agency's finances between 2013-2020. Every year, the agency submitted a report on the work done by them towards servicing the education system. The bill was ֏700M annually.
It was revealed that between 2012-2015, they granted an auction-based contract to the same company. It received a combined ֏2.8B in funding. The law requires the auction-holding officials to examine the market and take other steps before the auction. They failed to do so.
Later, during 2017-2019, the same company was selected to do the job, but this time it was only paid ֏300-400M annually, far lower than during the previous years.
֏1.2B in damages was done to the state. A felony case is launched.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042389.html

re: Armenia's $750M eurobond sale / lowest % in history / $3B demand by investors / economy news

Read yesterday's news for context.
Pashinyan: The issuance of $750M eurobonds is a strong positive signal for the start of the economic year. The issuance was done under the most favorable conditions in the history of our republic, with the lowest 3.8% percentage rate. Our previous record was in 2019 at 4.2%. The demand was for $3B but we decided to issue only $0.750B.
First, it provides a guarantee of macroeconomic stability. Second, this is the first serious signal of overcoming the post-war economic shock, which shows that international investors have confidence in the economic future of Armenia and the policy pursued by the government. //
Economy Minister Janjughazyan: this was part of our long-term plan and we had planned to do it while drafting the 2021 budget. We planned to issue fewer bonds but decided to add $250M because of favorable terms. We plan to use that extra cash towards the stabilization deposit, as a safety pad, to be used throughout the year if necessary.
As long as our budget has a deficit we will have to borrow. But this is only part of the story; the country's overall debt burden is calculated based on various indicators. So far Armenia has been rated as a country with a lower debt burden.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042351.html, https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042352.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042363.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042393.html

how many people did leave and arrive after reopening air traffic with Russia?

The governments of Armenia and Russian worked on an "app" to allow mutual travel after taking a test. By February 15th, there will be 4-route flights in 2 directions. There were several flights in the past few days.
3900 left and 3400 arrived. 1423 Armenian citizens left and 1263 Armenian citizens arrived. "More people were willing to leave in December than today," noted Diaspora Committee chief Sinanyan.
"Some people flew to Russia but had to return due to a problem. This wasn't due to the COVID app implemented by us. Preliminary data shows that they went to Russia with a paper QP code which raised the suspicion of Russian authorities. We will work with them to resolve this," said Deputy PM Mher. (say what??)
"We need to better inform the public about the existence of this app. Restoring routine flights will help the tourism industry," said PM Pashinyan.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042358.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042383.html

Pashinyan about the suspended Amulsar gold mining project

He repeated his earlier position that "Decisions must be made that take into account Armenia's best interests."
"The mining industry plays a very important role in the development of Armenia's economy, including in the security context."
"We must make decisions to make investment programs acceptable for the Armenian public while taking into account interests of Republic of Armenia."
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042368.html

COVID stats

1829 tested. 147 infected. 352 healed. 11 deaths. 4637 active.
"We're negotiating for vaccines via COVAX global initiative. Separately, we're negotiating with Russia for Sputnik-V. Vaccines should be available in March. It will be targeted at specific groups. It won't be mandatory," said Healthcare Minister Avanesyan.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042341.html , https://youtu.be/vXz3pHx1BlM?t=92

the consumer market price increase in the past 12 months

Armenia's consumer market inflation was +4.5% from January to January. Food +6.4%. Alcohol & tobacco +10.8%. Clothing +2.6%. Utilities +0.6%. Appliances +5.8%. Healthcare +5.6%. Transport +5.7%. Telecom +0.5%. Leisure & culture -0.8%. Education +2%. Dining +1.6%. Misc +3.5%.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042323.html

Parliament MP stops a citizen's suicide attempt

Someone tried to jump from Kievyan bridge. QP MP Gor Gevorgyan was nearby and stopped the attempt. The police took the distressed person to a station.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042329.html

psychological support will be provided to war participants and the public

Emergency Ministry says 15-30% of people have PTSD after the war. Today the government approved a plan to provide psychological aid to war participants and others. The target group includes families of missing people, POWs and their families, those who received disabilities, families of those who died, those who fought in the war, IDPs, civilians who were affected in any way. The program will work in Armenia and Artsakh.
The government will purchase services from experienced mental health service agencies.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042403.html

Armenia will grow industrial marijuana on mass industrial scale / incentive to boost land utilization

Hemp is a type of weed that contains less of the substance that makes you feel high. The government wants to grow industrial hemp on a mass scale to boost mood land utilization and revenues.
Pashinyan: this is going to open room for many speculations. It's important to present the project in detail so the public will have a full understanding of what is being done. Unfortunately, "hemp" is interpreted as something else, while in reality, it is a very important industrial raw material. The growing process has risks but there are oversight mechanisms that have been tested in many countries.
Deputy PM Avinyan: the US, Russia, and China have a great experience with industrial hemp production. The practice was examined by the Economy Ministry. We're talking about industrial production only. It will significantly activate agricultural land utilization. Today, 40% of lands are gone unused. This is part of our plan to boost the production of high-value agricultural products.
https://youtu.be/ssZgr2DR3DM?t=7
https://www.healthline.com/health/hemp-vs-marijuana#marijuana
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042372.html

Education Minister says the "controversial" parts of Church/History merger were "resolved"

Education Ministry wants to merge the school subjects "Armenian Church History" and "Armenian History". Critics said it will shrink the church-related materials too much, others called it treason, while others supported the decision, stating that it's all part of our history and having a separate class is inefficient.
Education Minister Dumanyan says he met colleagues at the National Academy of Sciences and they resolved the conflicts "that caused a noise earlier." He will reveal details soon.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042379.html , https://youtu.be/V0sC3dx-gzU

Major education reforms: "education alone will not solve all problems, but there is no problem that can be solved without an education"

... said PM Pashinyan during a govt session while discussing education reforms. Kids in 1-5 grades will no longer receive grades; tt will be pass or no pass (still needs Parliamentary approval). "There will be a criticism. How can you not grade? But this is a comprehensive program that emphasizes the student's needs and preferences," said Pashinyan.
"We need to pay attention to how the time is spent in schools and what skills are being taught in school hours. It will reflect in our society 15-20 years later. It will define whether we have a technological product or not.
What we were doing in 12 years (school length) can be done within 9 years, but a 9-year school isn't the solution. Instead of shortening the school, we're trying to fill the gap in a way to have a 50% higher efficiency by the end of the 12th year.
In developed countries, education starts not from school but from preschool. The lower the education entry age the more developed the countries are," said Pashinyan. (the govt has a plan to make sure 70% of kids attend preschools by 2023)
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042394.html

cancer stats in Armenia / annual rate / drops among children / fewer abandon treatment

world
9.6 million people die from cancer annually. 1/3rd is possible to prevent. Another part can be cured with the help of early detection.
Armenia
Cancer was the 2nd leading cause of death in 2020. It has increased in the past 10 years but at a small rate. Lung cancer is more common among men, and breast cancer among women.
First time diagnosis by year: 2018 - 8762, 2019 - 7908, 2020 - 7050.
Deaths by year: 2018 - 5199, 2019 - 5434. 2020 - unavailable. (55% men, 45% women)
The cancer rate went up by 1.5x compared to 1990. However, it declined by 2x among children under 14yo.
Fewer people abandon treatment. 3 years ago 53% of lung patients did so, today it's 40%. Breast cancer treatment abandonment went from 47% to 22%. (I translated the word բարձիթողության as "abandonment". Correct me if it refers to something else.)
Artsakh
The number of cancer cases has decreased in Artsakh: from 345 to 260 YoY.
prevention
Oncologist Safaryan says the early detection helps to avoid complications and save lives, even if it's the type of cancer that is known to reappear. There are many patients who defeat cancer. "Smokers should get a lung x-ray twice a year. Those working in chemical plants should get a frequent screening. Do not ignore symptoms and չգցել ականջի հետև. You can defeat it more easily when it's at 1-2 stages. It's a lot harder when it advances to 4."
Preventing cancer isn't easy. The causes of this disease are many. Genetics, bad habits, obesity, surrounding environment. A genetic test can reveal the likelihood of suffering from illness. Some women choose to undergo a mastectomy to prevent possible breast cancer in the future.
"I decided that if 1-in-100 is destined to be cured, I will be that one," said Ashkhen, a woman who recently defeated cancer.
More: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042291.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042364.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042405.html

cancer diagnosis, surgery, and radiotherapy are free

The treatment was made free recently. The Oncology Center urges the public to get screened as part of an early-detection initiative. The pilot program began in Vanadzor; 307 women were screened.
Cancer diagnosis, surgery, and radiotherapy are free, while the medication has a co-payment.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042423.html

today in history

2004: Mike Zuckerberg founded Facebook to steal your SSN
1949: Sri Lanka declares indpendence
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042309.html

president meets donor

Artsakh president Arayik met donor Alec Baghdasaryan and thanked him. "Only with the joint efforts of the Armenian people is it possible to quickly overcome the difficulties and to plan development programs." Alec plans more charity programs relating to education.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042326.html

donations to Artsakh & recovering soldiers

www.1000plus.am (recovering soldiers & their families)
www.HimnaDram.org (for Artsakh & Armenia)
www.ArmeniaFund.org (U.S. tax-deductible)

archive of older news

http://www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/Daily_Anti-Corruption_Reports

disclaimer

All the accused are considered innocent unless proven guilty in the court of law, even if they "sound" or "appear" guilty.

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

Hello Travellers, I hope y'all have a great day and a good time in Genshin Impact.
Me and my friend have been playing this game lately and have a very fun experience.
Expect one of mine friend that refuse to play. He lost interest instantly because it looks to similar to BOTW, is what he said. Can't blame him on that one. Haha.
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Anyway, i'm just gonna stop beating around the bushes and telling what i concern about this game instead of praising it. It's not because i hate it, but praising the game, won't help the game become better since the current game state is filled with horrible system.
Before i start to explain why, I want to say that, this is an experience coming from players that reach AR35. And you don't need to become AR35 to felt this problem.
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The first 20-30 hours in GI is without a doubt very enjoyable, you explore the world, unlocking tower like most ubisoft game, lol, solving puzzle, and making elemental combos. All that is good, but became useless and stale once you reach AR30.
Once you reach AR30, you will notice that materials become harder to get, tons of domain appeared but the Resin are not enough to cover it all. You farm artifact on Stormterror domain but get awful drop, even Wolf run is also bad drop, yet Mihoyo decide to limit it with weekly timer.
What i'm saying is, as someone who play this game, and invest in it, I'm pretty much lose interest to put more time in it, since the endgame are non-existent. Or more accurately, SLOWED-down by the RESIN system.
I'm aware that mihoyo previous game is HI3, and they intend to put some of mechanic in here. In this case is Resin and Gacha. But heed my word Mihoyo.
If you intent to keep PC players like us. That rarely play mobile game or gacha game, because we know how toxic it was. How time-gating it is when it comes to progression. With the current resin system, we will leave the game without a doubt.
Also keep in mind that we're not freeloaders, we spent your shop even it have an awful rates because we enjoy when we have things to do. But when the game progression need resin, but resin are limited. We lose motivation to keep going because the game just don't want us to progress unless we paid resin with primogem. (seriously. lol).
From what i see right now, Genshin still have things to do, for us, as a gamers that play PC games a lot. But it's unplayable due to resin system. We don't need tons of skipping dialog quest, what we need is the feeling of "freedom", able to progress what we want, when we want.
IMO resin system is really unacceptable in this game, it's an open world, but you can't progress without resin, so why bother explore the world then?
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So what's the solution?
You either make the resin regen faster, so you can still monetize it.
Or give us 3-4 daily resin regen item, so you can still monetize it. (what a greed).
Or remove it completely, since it's not a system that brings JOY to players at all. It just a limitation that leads player to frustration. Thus quiting your game and you have 1 less player to make profit of.
Please, Mihoyo, Just reduce your greed man. Haha.. it's not that hard.
This game have 10M players registration. Just imagine 8M of them buy Monthly pass.
That alone already made 40Million! And we're not covering the gacha for whale, battle pass, and upcoming skin yet.
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The 2nd problem in this game had is the gacha system and poor monetization.
Currently i've put 500 USD in this game for battle pass, monthly subs, and wishes.
And let me tell you, i regretted it. Supporting the dev is a must, but when the wishes pull is awful.
I can't say i'm happy putting my money in there.
I know whales put more money than me, 500 USD is nothing in gacha.
But i rarely gambling, it's not easy to make me become an addict.
That's why, spending 500 USD just to get a 1-2 five star character is really stupid for myself.
And please stop saying that they need GACHA, since it's F2P.
There's a lot of F2p that thriving till today without gacha system.
Valorant, Path of Exile, Warframe, etc.
And what's even worse, Genshin Impact monetize the heck out of this game, from SKIN (future), battle pass, Gacha, Monthly subs, and even RESIN they MTX it. God damn. I didn't realize that Mihoyo are trying to surpass EA. or Maybe they already did.
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Third problem i had is MAXED Constellation character.
The fact that we can get MAXED Constellation character in wishes, is a joke.
And what do we get from that? A 5 piece of token that can be exchange for an item, or buy another pieces of wishes.
This system is really2 bad. I can't see myself sticking this game for a long time if this mechanic remain the same. Maxed Constellation shouldn't be a thing other than making your spender suffer more.
Solution? Every dupe character will become an item to constellation other character. Simple right?
If we have 5 bottle of 4* constellation thing, allow us to combine it and become a single bottle of constellation that can be used for 5 star. The fact that that mihoyo chose the block constellation on wishes only, and maxed constl still appear in wishes. Is a proof of how greedy and unfriendly it's towards their customer.
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For those who will reply this thread by saying it's a mobile game, so accept it or duh...
Well, broh... it's not. This game is trying to appeal to massive gamers, that's why it release on PC, Switch, and PS4. They even introduce this game as an open world and inviting us to explore their world. That is not a gacha mobile game. Unless they intend to normalize this culture, where open world are filled with this awful progression and monetization design.
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There are still some point that i want to express how awful it's like chest, enemy design, awful BP design, and coop. But i'm just to lazy to type right now. Even with those 3 points alone, i can already see tons of hate is coming towards me since most game reddit thread are always, and will be, filled with fans that can't take criticism.
I know people didn't like their beloved game getting trashed on, but i'm not a freeloader, i'm not a player that only play 10 min and rage. I have played tons of hours and spent more than a casual players. I want this game to be better, that's why i voice my concern. Denying us, Yelling at us, angry at us, will not stop, nor change the awful part of this beautifully crafted world.. cough cough botw.
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So yeah, i enjoy the game thoroughly. But changes are need if this game want PC gamers keep playing the game. Otherwise, only mobile gamers that tolerate such awful system will be the one remain in this game, they will be the one that Mihoyo can profit from. Thus, Rendering your promotion for bigger audience become a big waste.
P.S. : I saw a lot of people saying that "even if they remove the resin system, I will still complain for the lack of content."
For that, i will say that it's really not OK to make own assumption without knowing each other in real life.
Suppose that resin system is really removed from the game.
Well then, we'll be happy once we MAX out all of our character. :D
For example, me and my friend play Monster Hunter World.
Once we reach the top gear, we just wander around the world, helping newbie.
We understand that creating new content tooks time, that's why we didn't mad or sad once we reach it.
What we do after that is just asking more friend to join and play together while helping and teaching them at the same time.
Maybe it's because we play a lot of non-time-gated games, games that usually let us do whatever we want. That's why when we first play GI, we get annoyed so much because we literally can't progress unless put some cash on the resin. And that for us, is not fun. There's thing to do, but the system, restrict us.
Also, remember that the layers of GEAR RNG on ARTIFACT in this game is very heavy.
Even if you we get berserker set, there's no guaranteed that the attributes will be ATK or CRIT DMG.
So, the grind itself will be very long since chasing a perfect gear is very hard.
Which means, removing the resin system will add a big chunk of hours for all of us.
I hope you guys can understand my point.
P.S. : I'm truly speechless reading reply like "cuz it's gacha." Like, why do you support such bad design. :(
I guess, i found the answer for this one. And it's truly sad.
FadedFace : it's because they already bought into the system. They spent a ton into these kinds of games already, so the only way for them to not feel stupid about themselves is to convince themselves and the rest of the world that this is the correct way of doing thing. Otherwise, if the system change, their thousand of dollar sunk cost would go poof in smoke and they are left realizing that they didn't have to do any of that shit to begin with, and all they had to do was vote with their wallet, and they would have gotten the same experience for much less. Meanwhile, they keep feeding the sharks, so these companies see no reason to change the system to begin with, and the cycle continue.
The one argument I can't stand is the "well they have to make money somehow". Like the gaming industry wasn't already a billions dollar colossus before these gacha systems come into existence. There are ways that far more player friendly to make money, that have been in places way before this, but the kids somehow thought that these companies will go bankrupt if they didn't spend their retirement saving. Give me a fucking break.
P.S. : For those who say removing Resin will allow us blitz through content which is not good?
Well, i found one best answer for that from : u/julchiar
Games like diablo 2, path of exile and many more literally live through this and people spend thousands of hours trying to find the perfect gear, all without artificial limits like resin.
Since other games are able to pull it off, i don't see why GI can't do the same other than trying to monetize it all, including resin. And that's greedy.
P.S. : For those who said the games still young, thus give it time.
Sure, absolutely, but does not mean Criticism shouldn't exist.
I found couple of reply that serve as best answer for those statement :
Shakkyun : If people doesn't state the problems now, they'll take way too long to react tho. Epic Seven had some really bad issues, they took half a year to talk with the players and change things, and they did it when they got review bombed on the store, so better complain early than late tbh
Dutycalls406 : On a sidenote, the taptap reviews for Genshin are not looking very well at the moment (4.7/10). Chinese players are way ahead of us in pointing out what's wrong with the game. They have been doing it since beta testing. Meanwhile the Google play store reviews are a nearly perfect score.
Shakkyun : Once again, asia is saving us by being realistic in the long run, Korean saved us on Epic Seven with their reviews and complain, while the global was just mocking them as people who complain, but once everything changed everyone was actually thankful
Dutycalls406 : I noticed this behaviour in this subreddit too. A lot of times people would tell you "stop playing if you don't like it" or "it's a gacha game what did you expect?". Instead of thinking for a moment and understand what all this means for the game in the long run.
P.S : One last note for this post, i just want to say that for those defend the stamina system :
Do you guys realize that my intention is on this post, is asking for changes that will IMPROVE most player experience, not trashing the game.
Which is baffling for me to see people actually defending this predatory system.
Fun fact : Genshin Impact currently are sititng on 4.7 out of 10 in China Taptap review.
https://www.taptap.com/app/168332/review?score=1
What are they complain about? The resin, the gacha, the trash chest, etc.
It seems like china players are more aware of the problem than global.

I'm in IT but is only new to Crypto - don't shame. Started in December. Started on Bitcoin Cash.
Spent a week studying it. Played around making INSTANT and COSTLESS fund transfers between fully anonymous wallets from different apps on my different phones. Also played with BIP38 encrypted Paper Wallets as a means of Cold Storage. Made INSTANT and COSTLESS deposits/withdrawals from online "merchants" like blockchain.poker and cashgames.bitcoin.com. I know some physical retail merchants in my area that accepts BCH will give that a try soon. BCH makes me a believer in crypto. I'm spreading the words (and small amount of BCH - there's no better way to understand it until you have some to play with) to family and friends.
​
Researched a bit about the toxicity between BCH and BTC. As newbie crypto user I don't care about this history (though I favors BCH due to phisolophical ideals). What I cared about is speed and fee. I haven't tried BTC because the fees would have eaten up the amount I wanted to test it.
​
The way I see it : BCH is currently $450. This is the same as BTC at $45. Because the Cash Market is 10x the Gold Market.
​
​
UPDATE:
I tested the toxicity between BCH and BTC by posting my above perspective as a new crypto user in both btc and bitcoin
Guess what I've found in the message box today?
On Team BCH:

• u/sociallyantisocial has just sent you 0.00230176 Bitcoin Cash (about 1.00 USD) via chaintip!

On Team BTC:

• "Scammer and a bullshiter, you need to move to BCH holes where bitcoin cash belongs."
• "Your post has been automatically removed from the Bitcoin subreddit because it appears to be regarding an altcoin which is acting as an impostor of Bitcoin. Even though this altcoin might have a similar name to Bitcoin, it is absolutely not Bitcoin, nor will it ever be Bitcoin. If you are confused, please review this handy chart. Altcoins are typically considered off-topic for Bitcoin subreddit. Please post in CryptoCurrency, BitcoinAirdrops or Bcash. If you feel this message is in error, please check first for similar threads to comment in. Otherwise, please contact the Bitcoin mod team. Thank you."

Kind of Ironic that "censor free store of value (BTC)" is censoring discussions on its merits.
I see myself as a new crypto consumer. If BTC refuses to listen to what new customers has to say thats fine. We do wonder what happens to businesses that don't listen to their customers. Reasonable amount of my savings is now invested BCH. So in way I hope BTC continue to not listen to their customers.
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The way I see it: Whether price rises or not is a FUTURE outcome of whether BCH can be useful in the PRESENT moment. And at present BCH has already provided me with UTILITY. As an example : being able to play online poker with REAL stakes (via blockchain.poker).
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In my country its now illegal to operate online gambling but not illegal to participate. Lost of bit of freedom when the law was passed and we could only use PLAY MONEY on PokerStars. On blockchain.poker the transaction with BCH is so CHEAP and QUICK that I would deposit and play and once done INSTANT Withdrawal.The INSTANT withdrawal is something not even PokerStars could provide.
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From what I understand, institutional investors are starting to engage because they are getting very excited about the future possibilities of crypto. Specifically some new paradigm shift or new killer app that can only be achieved via blockchains and smart contracts technology. I believe this to be true. This is why I'm now fully investing my time to learning more about crypto.
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I also believe that the PRIME killer app is already here. The PRIME killer app is CENSOR FREE MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE. And from this PRIME killer app everything falls in place. From what I know from my experiments and learning thus far BCH is the leader in providing CENSOR FREE MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE.
So I'm going to spread the words, firstly to family and friends then strangers on the internet to: BUY some, USE some, HOLD some.
Thanks for the comments regarding cold storage backups. I especially appreciate the comment regarding testing the recovery process. Almost had a heart attack when the PNG/JPEG for the paper wallet I loaded with 5 BCH failed to properly decrypt on Centos7. I initially encrypted it on Centos6. openssl defaults changed. You now have to "-md md5" to properly decrypt. So to add to this I say to also keep note or backup the software environment that enabled the recovery process. Eg: BIP38 might no longer be a standard in the future so keep a copy of the version of desktop wallet app used. Keep track of OS/version it runs on etc.
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Best Regards,

TL;DR: This is 🌈🐻 shit, the squeeze is squoze so feel free to call me a retard and move on.
Note: I will keep this relatively basic, the primary factors I will try to discuss here are behavioural rather than technical because I believe that much more representative of the current situation we see ourselves in. And I’m flairing this as DD because I guess it kind of is and hopefully it’ll weed out some of the idiots.
Disclaimer up front. I am holding 5 shares of GME. I sold 115 shares last week. I intend to sell my remaining shares within the next few days.

Part 1 – A timeline of events, what the fuck happened

Let's look at the volume historically. To understand where we are now I think it needs context of GME’s usual trading
https://i.imgur.com/uXSncb8.png
As you can see, average volume is usually in the 5-10m range or 25-30m on a 'busy' day in December. However crucially Jan 13th is clearly when things started taking off.
Let's take a look at wsb on and around the 13th shall we:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210113213122/reddit.com/wallstreetbets
So as you can see, there is some mention of GME but the main meme stock as users will remember around this time was PLTR. Crucially however this is around when Cramer starts talking more and more about wsb. It's something that had been bubbling up from around December because of PLTR therefore gaining more traction of wsb to a wider audience. Remember, this is two days after Ryan Cohen is announced to join the board.
https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-additional-board-refreshment-accelerate
There is an overwhelmingly bullish position taken on GME from January 13th onwards stemming from the January 11th announcement. Is this retail investors driving the boom? Possibly but unlikely, as you can see from wsb at the time - who are apparently the main market driver in all of this! - there isn't much chatter on GME and if so why no major volume on the 11th and 12th? The main topics of discussion in the sub are largely PLTR and the rumoured Lucid IPO I cannot name. GME has a cult following since at least late 2019/early 2020 IIRC. Read news stories from any time in 2020 and you will see reports of miniature ‘short squeezes’ on GME scattered throughout the year. It’s a touch one to gauge because of the pandemic. But basically the story of GME and the shorts was quite well known for some time, what was missing was the catalyst that inverts the story.
Looking back to the 2nd week of January however I think it’s fair to say retail investors definitely are probably piling on the momentum at the very least, like I said the short squeeze story is well known and who doesn’t pile on when you see something rise 40% in a day. I think it is clear that this is where the shorts begin consolidating their position. On Wednesday the 13th alone the volume is 145m. It’s vastly more money than anything wsb has under it’s belt to throw at one meme stock, this is a lot of institutional investors wanting a piece of the pie or shorts covering themselves in my opinion with retail thrown in too.
We'll take this play-by-play. Morning of Monday 11th Jan, at 9AM volume is 7m in the first hour. Which is usually how much there is in a day. Share price rises from 17.7 to 19.4 on the back of the announcement of Cohen as board member. Remember it's crucial to know Cohen has been a major Shareholder as far back as August of last year. There is heightened activity throughout the day, share price is relatively flat on the 11th and 12th. On the morning of the 13th, 115m shares trade hands through the first 4 hours.
Here's what's important to remember. From January 13th to Friday 29th - including one day of no trading due to MLK day. There was a total of 1.2bn shares trading hands! That's 25x the float.
Just FYI - It's that not all short positions that are currently open are necessarily ones that need covered immediately. Especially right now where volatility is immense. For example, if you are a remotely savvy trader you can see that lots of retards have set sell limits for 420.69. So you know that as soon as it hits 420 there will be a mass sell off and the price will plummet. You open up a short position selling to retards at 400 and close it out the same or whatever at 300. Basically the insane volatility promote MORE short selling than anything. Ignoring short term interest and shit but you get the idea. You can have a large amount of short interest due to the day-to-day pattern.
However I digress, basically the point I'm making is that of the shares trading hands the short sellers would "only" need 5% of them to fully cover their short positions. Crucially, Melvin Capital announced a cash injection on the 25th and claimed on Wednesday 27th that it had closed out it's position. Yes I know I know. But hear me out…
Based on SEC filings alone looks like BlackRock sold just over 2m shares and MUST Asset Management 3.3m. IIRC deadline to file is like 30 days or some shit so I'd be very surprised if more institutional investors didn't. I think Fidelity own another 11m and Vanguard 5m. It's possible for Fund A to ask their broker JPM who then asks BlackRock/Fidelity etc and broker a deal outside the open market remember.
Speaking of institutional investors, According to Yahoo Finance, but I couldn’t quite be bothered to look up the SEC filings a certain ‘Susquehanna International Group’ is a major share holder in GameStop. SIG is a HFT which no doubt would have made a fortune on the kind of trades being done last few days. But that's irrelevant to the topic at hand, well it's tangentially related but I'll get back to that later.
Here's a quick overview of a timeline of events:
https://i.imgur.com/7chp2g8.png
The timeline over this period is about 1.1bn shares trading hands. A few things to point out here, one is the utterly retarded red dildo on the 23rd. Quite literally the price shoots up to $69, huge sell off of morons with limit sells and drops to $55. This is exemplary of the kind of retarded things I’ll explain further in a minute. But what I’m saying here is that of the time period up to Tuesday 25th Jan which I count as 9 trading days. Melvin Capital probably can (and did?) cover. Remember it’s not like they alone were the entire short interest. Another quick aside; Citron aren’t an Asset Management company, they’re a publication who specialises in shorts. Andrew Left probably has his own personal money in what he publishes but they’re a small fry really.
So far I’ve only talked about events up to the 27th of January. My conclusion from this is that A) when the relative absence of MANIC retail buying the price raises to around $100-150, I wouldn’t surprised to find out the likes of Melvin and other funds had to pay close to $300 at the end of the 27th in closing out their short. B) Short data is both unknown – remember we only have accurate data up to the 15th. The rest is analyst estimates, and having a high short ratio isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the shorts because the immense day-to-day volatility is promoting that. C) It is possible – one might even say probable – that the largest shorts have closed out. I’ll explain this in a moment but the day-to-day trading patterns don’t indicate to me there is much interest in GME outside retail mania.

Part 2 – So what happened the last few days?

OK so this is simply my interpretation but strap in boys.
https://i.imgur.com/9OnCxWn.png
Let’s look at what happened:
Start on the 28th. Market opens up and there is a huge buying pressure (1). Price raises to $480 (2) then drops off massively. My thoughts are well, these are probably just sell limits being his by hundreds of thousands of people. The reason I have for this is because of what happens the next day but I’ll get to that.
This is obviously because of the restrictions placed on retail buyers through Robinhood etc. With very little retail buy pressure it crashes to around $100-150 (3) – the same as where we saw a large amount of activity the day prior… The rest of the day is very boring. There’s the od bit of ‘interesting’ activity (4) which seems to be buying gout of the norm which could be shorts for example. However the majority if the day and the next day follows very predicable patterns (7) price creeps up to the high of the Bollinger Bands, drops a bit. MACD reversal, price rise etc. Day Traders capitalising on the volatility, algos doing their own thing most likely. It’s the usually inter-day pattern but with more volatility.
The 29th follows almost exactly the same pattern but the here’s the key thing. Price rises to $420 (5), and crashes. This basically confirms the theory before that it’s retail selling causing the price drops and not some outside interference. This refers back to the point I made earlier where there is a large sell off on the 22nd as we hit a ceiling of $69. Like the day before, the volume is low so relatively flat. Pattern follows as expected. Again there are some instances (6) where there appears to be a flurry of buying out of the norm which would suggest the same as the day before. The day begins almost exactly the same as before. The difference being the price crash isn’t as hard because there was enough retail pressure to keep it elevated.
Here’s my conclusion. And you’re not going to like it. Basically there is no buying interest in GME other than retail for the sake of itself. What we have on our hands is largely retail buying in the morning and when there is a big dip. And majority of day trading and algorithms throughout the day with the odd spurt of what could potentially be some other interested parties of volumes that appear to be around $150m or so at a time.

Part 3 – I don’t care I’m not selling!

OK fair enough. A few comments I want to make here off the bat. 1) This is wallstreetbets the subs purpose is about making money and being risky. I am not interested in your stupid crusade or desire to burn the rich. If you want to do that I personally think you should go to a different sub and shitpost there.
But I’ll humour you for a moment. So according to Yahoo Finance GME’s largest shareholders are Fidelity, Blackrock and Vanguard. I looked back at SEC filings to check up on the most up to date information and it looks like prior to recent events they hold around 11.6m, 11.2m and 5.4m shares respectively. I already pointed out that Blackrock has disclosed the sell off of at least 2m shares. At a profit of around $300-400 a shares that nets Blackrock a nice profit of around $500-800m at the very least. Consider who you are buying shares from remember. These three companies alone own around half the float. So in your attempt at sticking it to the man you’ve actually just given huge Asset management corporations billions of dollars in profit. Yes it’s at the expense of shorts like Melvin but it’s also literally just coming straight out of your pocket and into Blackrock’s. There’s the ‘Korean Hedge Fund’ you may have heard of recently. Again, 3.3m shares or probably at least a billion dollars of profit for MUST Asset Management. I also couldn’t find any details through the SEC but admittedly I didn’t look very hard but again, according to Yahoo Finance, a certain ‘Susquehanna International Group’ is a major shareholder in Gamestop. SIG is a HFT which no doubt would have made a fortune on the kind of trades being done last few days.
Know who is on the other side of the trade if you are trying to make a stand. In your retarded attempt at trying to bankrupt Melvin et al you are actually padding the pockets of the real villains idiots.
If you want to piss your money away that’s fine too I guess. It’s stupid but I guess why not. GME will still (probably) be largely institutionally held so it’s not like their corporate objectives will change very much in the short term. But my humble opinion is that wsb isn’t the right sub for this. In the past few days it’s become more and more like conspiracy or some Q-Anon type shit.

Part 4 – Do your Due Diligence

If you have recently started talking about ‘Short ladder attacks’ then you’re a certified retard. Seriously I’ve never heard of such a thing and I FUCKING dare you to find a primary source outside of reddit that predates GME. Doesn’t exist, maybe I’m the retard who doesn’t understand but it’s literally just something made up to sound important when it’s not. Think about it – selling en-mass with low volume? What retard believes that! Same with the concept of Gamma Squeeze, I kind of get it but the rationale is flawed. Call options driving up stock price make sense in certain context – actually the VW short squeeze for example – but by and large is a misleading claim that somehow magically ITM calls will cause prices to rise. There’s a whole other 3,000 words I can write up on the misconceptions, false claims, misleading comments, retarded copypastas, obvious bots fooling people into shit stocks like AMC. OK, quickly, yeah BB and GME are nothing to do with each other. This is purely momentum trading and you’ve completely missed the point here. Or ignoring the fact that the majority of NOK shares are traded on the Helsinki exchange for example.
The jist of it is actually do your own DD. Whether you care about the reason or not. Still do your own DD. By and large holding does nothing IMO. The shorts aren’t interested in your shares anymore and in fact the vast majority of you are lending them out anyway because you’re on cheapo platforms.
In my opinion what we are seeing are retail retards buying hysterically causing the price to rise. It hits huge abundance of sell limits and crashes before people buy again in the first hour or so. Then day traders and algos take over and do their own thing.
Come Monday morning it’ll be the same. Does that mean you cannot make money off it? No. not necessarily, the large swings and morning push is still a good way to make money if that’s your thing. Then the next day and the next day. In a weeks time people will get bored and you’ll be left holding a bag of wet potatoes. If you’re in Long, I can genuinely see the price as high as $50-150 so I think a lot of you are probably not got too much t worry about. Oh, as a quick aside again. Did you ever wonder just WHY there were sooo many bots spamming buy GME or buy NOK or whatever??? People paid for those bots. Not a whole lot of money but money nonetheless. If you’re doing what they said you’re doing their bidding. The bidding of people with money… Think about that for a moment to make sure you yourself aren’t being manipulated.
Do you know what this reminds me of? QAnon people, the tards on parlor etc. Those that were waiting for Trump to seize the day on Inauguration Day and magically everything would work out. But nothing happened and then you’re left feeling like an absolute tool – the price isn’t magically going to jump up to $10,000. Sorry but it’s true.
What’s my motive here? Well quite frankly I don’t give a shit what you do with your money but I will say that I got A LOT of messages and PM’s and chats the last few days from clearly vulnerable and ill-informed people But crucially I just say this because I hope that the old wallstreetbets comes back sooner rather than later. The ethos of the sub is making money and gambling on high risk bullshit, not whatever this is.

Part 5 – FAQ

Assuming this doesn’t get deleted or downvoted to oblivion. I’ll pre-emptively answer your questions.
Q – Are you a wall street or MSM shill. Why is your account empty! This is FUD!
A – No, I deleted my comments because of fear of doxing/backlash in posting this and this is an alt. Hopefully I don’t regret it.
Q – What about VW!
A – Completely different. I can’t be bothered to go into details but consider at least that A) that was 12 years ago B) No circuit breakers then and C) Porsche and the Saxon Govt owned 95% of the float between them and neither were selling. We’ve already established that the MAJORITY of GME is owned by institutional investors. Also Porsche did show their hands at the end when announcing their intention to buy an additional 30% through calls. One could consider the statement by Melvin similar in nature. Also, it’s gone from $5 to $500, that is the moon.
Q – What about the 100%+ short!
A – Firstly that’s an estimate. Those figures are only updated once every 2 weeks IIRC. So we’ll have data up to the end of Jan later. However that in and of itself doesn’t tell the whole story. If you’re a big enough fund you’re on the phone to Goldman to sort something out not whatever you think is going on. The littler guys sure are fucked.
Q – What about DeepFuckingValue!
A – His gameplan is up to him. Honestly I have no idea, not to belittle his work but it’s worthwhile remembering DFV initial thesis wasn’t about the squeeze at all. It was his (correct!) assessment that GME was undervalued. And he did strike VERY lucky that all this happened now. If Cohen joined the board in May not January DFV wouldn’t still have made money, yes, but he wouldn’t be filthy rich just rich.
Q – That’s just what they want me to think 💎✋!
A – Not a question but sure. If you intend to make money good luck. If you just hold for the sake of it. Then sure, knock yourself out. I recommend deleting your robinhood app and coming back to it in 2030 before you try and remember why you are holding $4 worth of GameStop shares in your account.
Q – Just you watch it’ll fucking moon!
A – Maybe, probably not but maybe. If it does like I said I am still holding onto 5 shares which I bought for (relatively) nothing. Most likely I’ll sell at around $300-400 Monday/Tuesday. If it foes go to $1000+ I’ll gladly donate the cost of one GME share to charity.
Please feel free to insult me and break apart my theory in the comments :) but I fucking dare you to offer something original other than parroting some meme or copypasta you read elsewhere.
Q – What about the collusion! A – I honestly think it’s more nuanced than that. Retail trading was just throwing gasoline on a fire for no fucking reason. At this point you were just piling cash into the big banks for the sake of it without actually hurting the shorts.
The steps were taken to mitigate demand, yes it’s that blatant. But one could argue it was for the sake of the little guy even if you can’t see it that way. Remember again that all you people who bought in at $200, $300, $400 will gladly be manipulated by people on this sub for their own gain. The users on wsb are smarter than they appear, not me. I’m a fool, but lots work in finance. Do you think it’s a coincidence they can do complex DD or have access to Bloomberg terminals? Manipulation comes from both sides, just don’t be a stooge.
PS. There’s probably a fuck ton of spelling mistakes and shit here. I haven’t bothered to proof read.

EDIT - one week after i posted this, Britain's most successful hedge fund manager Michael Platt has taken a 6.5% stake
tl;dr
At-NAV new SPAC with world-leading expertise in online gambling. Worth a bet on potential to be next DKNG on the hype train
   
+++++++
Hi all - have had a lot of great tips from this sub. Hopefully this pays some of you back. I have been watching and researching this since 23 December when it first filed S1, awaiting the units to be listed - they are available today trading as ADERU
Positions - 500 units @ 10.42 to start. Will be monitoring and building position below $15, especially if attention starts to build ahead of units and warrants splitting and shares coming available to Robinhood.
(My other SPAC positions are OPEN, IPO-E-F, PSTH, FUSE, PIPP, ACTC, CCIV and DMYD, 100 to 1000 shares each mostly around NAV and numerous warrants and options around these.)
As ever, this is not investment advice and do your own research
+++++++
   
26 Capital Acquisition Corp or ADER
is a 240m SPAC with usual terms - 10$ units, 1/2 warrants. Seeking a merger in "gaming and gaming technology, branded consumer, lodging and entertainment, and Internet commerce sectors".
I think this is highly worth a play on the online gambling hype if you can get in at near NAV, based entirely on the management which is unbeatable in its knowledge of the gambling industry
   
CEO Jason Ader
has held director level positions at Las Vegas Sands Corp. ($42bn one of biggest casino groups in world), IGT (£3.72bn multinational gambling firm specialised in software and slot machines) and Playtech (£1.4bn multinational gambling software firm)
Before starting his own fund in 2013 he was regularly ranked Wall Street's top analyst on the gambling and leisure sector
His fund, Spring Owl Capital, is a small activist fund focused on gambling and leisure. They are probably most famous for ousting the CEO of Viacom in 2016 and a crusade against Yahoo CEO Marissa Meyer in 2015.
Ader knows the gambling - and online gambling - industry inside out. He drove bWin to a £1.1bn takeover by gambling giant GVC (now Entain) in 2016, and has been driving similar change and demands for improvement at board level at Playtech
The fund mostly manages money for a select group of wealthy families, which could be a positive sign for the SPAC (although I don't know how much skin in the SPAC the fund has, if any)
Here is a video of Ader from November talking about how he's excited about SPACs. He talks about how he has been advising certain States about legalising sports betting and how to maximise value and liquidity by linking up with European companies in the space (Playtech e.g.??).
Ader is extremely bullish on US legalising online casino and more sports betting options, accelerated by need for revenue because of pandemic
   
Rafi Ashkenazi
One of the most highly respected names in the online gambling world, including COO and CEO positions at major online gambling firms such as Playtech and Stars Group (a world leader in online poker and casino). At Stars he led the $4.7bn takeover of Sky Betting to create the world's largest publicly listed online betting firm in 2018. Most recently he led the £10bn merger between Flutter (biggest gambling company in world by revenue, market cap £26bn), and Stars Group (Ader also involved). Also has connections into the booming Israel tech space which is interesting
   
Joseph Kaminkow
Special Advisor to the Chief Product Officer at Aristocrat, a leading gambling software provider and games publisher, previously Vice President of Game Design at Zynga Inc. This guy is a former video game / pinball designer who is credited with revolutionising the slots industry after moving into gambling software from video games in 1999. Regarded as a "legend" and "hall of famer" in this niche. At Zynga he designed so-called 'social casino games' which don't involve real-money gambling but are otherwise basically gambling apps (revenue from microtransactions etc). 130 patents on gambling/gaming design inventions
   
Greg Lyss
This is a very interesting but extremely low profile person. He was Bill Ackman a.k.a SPACman's right hand man at Gotham Capital. Ackman respected him so much that when Ackman set up a personal hedge fund to invest the Ackman family's money, he put Lyss in charge of it. To repeat - Bill Ackman thinks this guy is such a good investor and trustworthy that he put him in charge of investing his family's money. Don't know anything more about him, but I like this association with Ackman, which suggests to me some integrity around management of this SPAC, especially as the gambling world can be very murky.
The other member of the team is the CFO of SpringOwl with 20+ years' hedge fund experience and not notable (although clearly competent)
   
Thesis / potential targets
Based on the above experience and many public comments by Ader over the past year, I would be very surprised if ADER is not looking to merge with an online gambling technology provider / existing online betting website / social casino app / possibly a supporting technology provider
They are activist inventors, and specifically say in the IPO prospectus that they could look for businesses that can benefit from turnaround or are not being run well. I speculate that their deep knowledge of the European / global online gambling industry means they have a target in mind that they think would benefit from their expertise and US liberalisation of gambling legislation.
   
1) Ader believes the listing of UK-listed gambling companies in US is immediately big in terms of market cap because of the premium on online gambling stocks in US. He has pitched DraftKings to takeover Playtech and called on Playtech to spin off non-core business. This makes me wonder if he would spin off some element of Playtech to list in US to cash in on gambling hype.
This might be Finalto.com / TradeTech which is an online financial platform owned by Playtech. Playtech has been trying to sell this for 200 - 240m since August so it fits. This company provides liquidity and trading to brokerages and runs markets.com a trading site. I wouldn't be that excited although apparently the business has been booming during COVID and there could be a decent pop just on fintech hype.
   
2) This could be a 'picks and shovel' type data/B2B betting software play a la DMYD, or something like e.g. Israel based CRM software Optimove which works with some of biggest online gambling cos and has links to Ashkenazi. This would be interesting but probably not a huge pop
   
3) Possibly - given Ader's links to Sands - an online gambling tie-up with one of the big Vegas casinos who are desperate to get into the online betting space (see MGM's attempt to buy Entain for $8bn last week). Interestingly, Sands' owner Sheldon Adelson, previously a major opponent of online betting, has just died. Ader predicted a few months ago that Sands would be moving in this direction.

“There’s no stopping online gaming,” Ader said [before Adelson's death]. “(Las Vegas Sands’) initiatives to stop online gaming, at this stage, are largely historic. There hasn’t been a lot of spending recently to do that, especially post-pandemic.”
“I think the company will see the value created by DraftKings and FanDuel and Penn (National) Gaming and others. They’re not foolish,” Ader added. source

   
4) Ader is very confident that Macau will legalise online gambling in next year or two. Sands is big in Macau, the biggest gambling market in the world. A SaaS-type product positioned to capitalise on Asian gambling would be MASSIVE - at present however, China's attitude to gambling and local regulations mean this is unlikely
   
5) I also wonder if they might try to take legitimate one of the offshore bookmakers with big customer databases and brand recognition but which have been grey-area/illegal under US gaming legislation. For example, Five Dimes recently announced a settlement with the FBI to attempt to transition into newly legalised US markets. This might have the most hype potential
   
Potential upside
This is entirely a play on management experience and the meme factor / hype around online gambling in the US. I think if they pick a good target - which given their experience and connections seems likely - and get the right publicity and attention from retail investors looking for the next DKNG this could easily 3x and maybe 5-6x if on DKNG-type hype levels.
There is currently little spotlight on this and it is a good time to get in at NAV
   
Potential Downside

• Ader has been vocal that he thinks US online betting is overvalued and in a bubble - why is he starting his own SPAC in the space then? Does he just want to cash in while the hype is at all-time high or does he have a legitimate business goal?
  
• If he just wants to dump a part of Playtech which he does not like onto retail investors, this is a bad deal.
  
• Other targets could be e.g. hotel industry or other leisure sector which would be zero sexiness to retail. Given Ashkenazi and Kaminkow's background this seems unlikely though
  
• Usual SPAC caveats apply about potential difficulty finding a target, locking up your money for unspecified period of time, and the fact I may have completely misread the potential and my above thesis might be totally wrong
  

Hi everyone,
Lately I've been reading and watching on the news about Robinhood and I just wanted to give my two cents as somebody who actually researches Gambling disorder in the United States. My goal in this post is to hopefully encourage people on WSB to become politically active in preventing the regulations or removal of certain aspects that Robinhood allows on its investing platform. First, let me define some terms from the Gambling disorder field:

• Gambling- placing something of value on a random outcome in order to achieve a desired result or profit (this last part is added by me as I think it gives a better explanation of why an individual gambles in the first place);
• Gambling disorder: A psychological disorder where an individual is unable to control their gambling to the point that they are experiencing consequences from the behavior. The behavior also has to occur without the presence of Mania, other biological co-morbidity, or under the influence of a psychoactive substance.

In this post I will address a few arguments at Robinhood. The first is regarding the "gambling" nature of investment that Robinhood purportedly encourages. The second is that the average investor needs to be "protected" because they lack the information and knowledge to participate on the app.
When I first downloaded Robinhood, I was skeptical at first and proceeded to uninstall and reinstall it multiple times before I deposited $350 to invest in stock. The app provided me a "scratch-off" with my first deposit that rewarded me with my first stock (some medical company). That was the only time that event occurred. If we look at my prior definition of gambling, technically that is not a form of gambling. I placed nothing of value on this random outcome. If the actual act of investing in stock is gambling this leads to an interesting analogy regarding trading platforms, not just Robinhood.
Stocks are the game (roulette, blackjack, craps), Robinhood and trading platforms are the dealers (giving information on the rules of the game and how much it costs to place a bet), and the liberal market is the casino.
In this analogy everybody is in the Casino, and if you don't play the game you stand to lose regardless as your money loses value to inflation. Even worse, if the casino folds the people that didn't cash out or were fully invested in the casino never collapsing (The Great Depression, the recession of 2008 the coronavirus recession) can stand to lose everything even if they didn't participate (regular person that was laid off) or were placing safe bets (ETF's Blue chip stocks etc).
The Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, William Galvin, is addressing the wrong issue by suing Robinhood. What should be addressed is the reasons that people even participate in Robinhood or in any trading platform. The average individual doesn't understand the market and the United States does not address this ignorance by providing information on how to properly invest for retirement or provide a welfare structure that protects against poverty as individuals become unable to participate fully in the economy due to injury, developmental disability, age, discrimination or lack of access to the "free" market. To claim that people on Robinhood "gamble" for excitement or risk is reductive. People invest their money on Robinhood for the potential accumulate life changing "tendies" that will protect them from the eventuality that they will be unable to participate in the economy and the government will not insulate them from the fiscal impact an individual will (not if) have to deal with in regards rising medical cost for their healthcare and any other services they would require in order to lead a normal life. If William Galvin is actually concerned about the "gamefying" of investment, he should focus on regulating Wall Street and the Banking sector, because last time I checked investors on Robinhood invest with their own money, not the money of other people.
The argument that the average investor isn't informed also leads to more issues that I guarantee the government doesn't want to address or even ask because it would require an expansion of the welfare state and higher taxes on companies and individuals. If the average American is too dumb to invest using Robinhood that what is the solution? The U.S. government has always fought any sort of government guaranteed income or services to insulate an individual against against insolvency from the free market as can be seen by the desire to privatize almost all forms of government programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Food Stamps and Medicaid. This has already occurred with certain programs at the federal level such as HUD which doesn't do anything to help people get affordable housing and the drastic reduction in funding for colleges and universities especially after boomers were done getting their degrees for essentially free.
So lets examine what the average person has to understand in the American economy,

• they have to be able to plan and invest for their retirement,
• understand loans (including all the fine print such as interest) to pay for college, and purchasing of necessary items for certain areas such as housing or a car;
• Navigate a Byzantine like medical industry that can easily bankrupt the average American even with insurance;

So the average American is suppose to navigate all of the aforementioned areas with little to no government assistance. But Robinhood should be regulated, makes sense. Let's not even talk about that most Americans read at about an 8th grade level and have a tough time understanding that a quarter pounder is less than a one third hamburger...
"Why the third pound hamburger failed: One of the most vivid arithmetic failings displayed by Americans occurred in the early 1980s, when the A&W restaurant chain released a new hamburger to rival the McDonald’s Quarter Pounder. With a third-pound of beef, the A&W burger had more meat than the Quarter Pounder; in taste tests, customers preferred A&W’s burger. And it was less expensive. A lavish A&W television and radio marketing campaign cited these benefits. Yet instead of leaping at the great value, customers snubbed it. Only when the company held customer focus groups did it become clear why. The Third Pounder presented the American public with a test in fractions. And we failed. Misunderstanding the value of one-third, customers believed they were being overcharged. Why, they asked the researchers, should they pay the same amount for a third of a pound of meat as they did for a quarter-pound of meat at McDonald’s. The “4” in “¼,” larger than the “3” in “⅓,” led them astray. --Elizabeth Green, NYT Magazine, on losing money by overestimating the American Public Intelligence."
The REAL QUESTION is what responsibility does the government have to insulate the average American from an economy that by its very nature is predatory, especially when the argument set forth by William Galvinson is that the public doesn't understand how to invest on Robinhood. Especially since the government has told the public from day one to take care of themselves as they get older through investing instead of expecting the government to provide assistance. By removing or regulating Robinhood, the fungibility of the average American's dollar will drop in value because they are prevented from another avenue of wealth accumulation, which research shows (at least for those in poverty) they turn to gambling as a means of wealth accumulation because even though the return on a gamble is less it is technically even since their dollar is also worth less.
I think I may have gone on a rant, sorry.
TL; DR,
Please buy me some tendies William Galvin, because I like to be wined and dined before I GET FUCKED!
Robinhood isn't gambling. Robinhood just provides a service to investing on Wall Street, the actual gambling is our devotion to supply side economics which is the original, STONKS ONLY GO UP 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Also, if we are going to start regulating Robinhood because of the actions of a minority (WSB) then we should start regulating other industries that are WAY more predatory and impact a larger amount of the U.S. such as, payday loans, guns, pharma industry, surprise medical bills from emergency rooms, childcare, prison industry, bail industry etc. I bet you the cost to the U.S. economy from those industries is way more than anything Robinhood has done.
Positions: SAVE at 18.45 67 shares; and TQQQ 5 shares at 174.71

Find Laura: a Season 3 scene-by-scene analysis 3D

Previous Posts:
Find Laura: Part 1: 1A • 1B • 1C • 1D • 1E • 1F • 1G • 1H • 1I • 1J • 1K • 1L • 1M • 1N •
Find Laura Sidebar: FWWM & TMP: Mr.. Mibbler’s Complaint A •
Find Laura: A Visual Abstraction A •
Find Laura: Part 2: 2A • 2B • 2C • 2D • 2E • 2F • 2G • 2H • 2I • 2J
Find Laura Sidebar B | FWWM & TMP: Gordon Cole, Philip Jeffries and The Ring A
Find Laura: Part 3: 3A • 3B • 3C

Find Laura: a Season 3 scene-by-scene analysis 3D

•
I want to take a step back and break down this bedroom scene at Rancho Rosa, starting with Douglas Jones and Jade.
In Part 3A of this series I wrote:

What does it look like inside the mind when you try to remember, or when dream images form? All these individual acetylcholine neurons firing trying to recreate sensations and images of a moment that no longer exists.

We’re about to see what recollection looks like in this dreamscape of Laura’s subconscious. In the Red Room Laura whispered the secret to Cooper, passing it from her to him (note his stunned reaction). The secret is supposed to be hidden away, to be repressed and made nonexistent whenever it attempts to surface.
The repressed memory that has been fragmented through abstraction so many times as to create nearly-infinite variations of itself, each a fractured piece of a puzzle that Laura once solved, but is too afraid to put it all back together once she gets close enough to sense what it’s trying to reveal.
|| The Pietà ||
In our first shot of Douglas Jones and Jade, they are in a similar position to Cooper and Laura as seen previously in the Red Room. This position has been struck many times in Twin Peaks, so I’m adding it to our list of things to look out for, as the Pietà.

As Wikipedia states, “A pietà (meaning ‘piety,’ ‘compassion’) is a subject in Christian art depicting the Virgin Mary cradling the dead body of Jesus, most often found in sculpture.” Since it is a part of the Christian sacrifice story and assumption of sins, this named association feels appropriate when considered in the context of the “scapegoat/sacrificial lamb” concept put forward in our last installment.
A possible related aspect, also from Wikipedia: “Michelangelo's treatment of the subject was influenced by his passion for Dante's Divina Commedia... In Paradiso (cantica 33 of the poem), Saint Bernard, in a prayer for the Virgin Mary, says "Vergine madre, figlia del tuo figlio" (Virgin mother, daughter of your son). This is said because, since Christ is one of the three figures of Trinity, Mary would be his daughter, but it is also she who bore him.”
In the Red Room there is much time confusion (is it future or is it past). In this inversion of the scenario implied in *Divina Commedia we have the bad father whose daughter creates an new father figure who, falling victim to BOB, then perpetuates the cycle. An infinite lineage with no beginning or end.*
In Twin Peaks the pietà position involves a transaction in order to move forward:
• whispered secret/kiss in the Red Room
• cash/kiss in the Rancho Rosa bedroom
• gun/secret recorded info between the Bad Cooper and Daria
• coffees/room entry with Sam and Tracy

As Douglas Jones gets dressed, his left arm numb, he is thrown to the ground by a pain in his gut. He crawls on his hands and knees and, unable to enter the bathroom, crawls into the living room. He vomits.
And freeze.
|| Starting Positions ||
It was at the conclusion of the season 2 premiere that we have our first glimpse of what went on in the train car, as a flash of memory for Ronette in the hospital. From left to right we saw the bloody rag on a table, and then center screen on her back lay the body of Laura Palmer, and to the right on his hands and knees bending over the mound of dirt is BOB howling in seeming agony.
In Rancho Rosa, Douglas Jones has been forced to assuming the position of BOB in the train car as 2:53 approaches. Douglas Jones, a horrible, whoremongering father that drinks and gambles, misses his son’s birthday while disappearing for three days. A bad dad doing bad things, not as bad as Leland perhaps, but bad enough.
And doesn’t he look almost exactly like Dale Cooper?
We might remember that in Twin Peaks Season 1, it was three days after Laura’s death that Maddy arrived in Twin Peaks. Similarly, when Leland was revealed as BOB and then died in police custody, there was a three-day gap in the story once it resumed in the next episode. Up until that point, each episode was basically one day with no gaps.
Here, Douglas Jones’s three-day disappearing act ends with his replacement via the arrival of Dougie Jones, the DougieCoop. He’s the purified Jones, reclaiming his place on his pedestal as Dad, good father and provider for the family.

In keeping with the tracking of Christian symbolism, I’ll mention here that between Jesus’s death on the cross and his resurrection, three days passed.

Prior to our arrival at Rancho Rosa, Douglas Jones had just had sex with Jade, and when we first join the scene she in the physical position of Laura from the previous Red Room scene’s pieta. This is not coincidental. The train car scene is, in a sense, the starting position of all of Twin Peaks, and the assumption of the pietà pose is tied directly to its aftermath. It is the first abstraction from which the other abstractions are built. But it was an abstraction.*

Like BOB, the train car is not reality, although it may better communicate how it felt and therefore how it was remembered by Laura, our *bad transformer.

It’s what Laura believed was done to her, and seemingly still believes. It’s Agent Cooper’s mission now to disabuse her of that notion, a false belief he himself unfortunately proved to be “true” in Season 2. That was Agent Cooper’s mistake. So the lie of BOB still must be removed. Once that is done, then the hidden truth can finally be faced again, and integrated into Laura’s reality. This integration is what will heal the split between MIKE and the ARM and its corollary Laura Palmer and Agent Cooper.
The mystery of Laura’s murder begins here where she died, in the train car. And Douglas Jones, the horrible father, has assumed the position of BOB. In place of the roar of BOB in the train car, Douglas Jones vomits up garmonbozia, disappears, and is replaced by the Good Cooper.
The swapping out of the bad father figure for the good, facilitated by Laura’s assumption of the father’s evil and guilt (garmonbozia), making him pure again after his sin.
Her fault, not his.
The Ring, which is removed from the pedestal in the Red Room to allow the transgression, the crossing over between the two worlds, will be replaced on the pedestal once the evil is done, returning the father to the exalted status, unstained by his incestuous actions.
This was the location of Agent Cooper’s arrival in the psyche of Laura Palmer in FWWM. And here we actually see it happen as Federal Bureau of Investigation Special Agent Dale Cooper, the good father figure, soon arrives to replace the bad father, Douglas Jones.
|| Enter the Good Cooper ||
There’s a lot to comment on visually in the Good Cooper’s arrival. He enters the room through the wall socket, extruding as a smoking black tube that unrolls to reveal our conscious-yet-silent Special Agent.
The slashes of light cutting across the floor of the living room match the way the light fell in the train car. And where Douglas Jones assumed the position of BOB and was subsequently ripped from this space, Agent Cooper is inserted and assumes the position of the dead Laura Palmer. Just above Agent Cooper’s head is the pile of garmonbozia left by the departed Douglas Jones, its position evoking the bloody towel from the train car.
Like the Pietà, this prone position is struck many times in Twin Peaks, the implication being this “starting position” has been resumed several times prior to Rancho Rosa.
Looking back to Part 1 of season 3, we can see that the smoking black circle that extrudes into the room to become Agent Cooper was structurally foreshadowed in the the scene where the cops sought out the key to Ruth Davenport’s apartment, the vertical stripes of sunlight in the Las Vegas bedroom echoing the green metal bars of the fence.
The empty, white PVC pipe with its black end a frozen version of Cooper’s horizontal arrival. The Black Dot and its variant, The Hole: things we noted on our list of things to watch for at the end of Part 1N. And speaking of The Hole, here’s one!
Also, as an aside, Cooper’s arrival in this scene wordlessly asserts a concept of dimensional perception: how a tube as three-dimensional object (height, width, depth, moving directly at you through time) would be seen as a small circle becoming larger and larger. The depth of this two-dimensional image is illustrated via the shadow to the right of Cooper’s “arrival tube” on the wall. Looking straight at it, it is a black, smoking spot growing larger as it approaches, while its shadow reveals the hidden depth of the object.

I have mentioned earlier that to create the inner world of Laura Palmer, Lynch has used the rules of theoretical physics to create the boundaries of its otherworldly nature. Conceptually, what appears to us as a two-dimensional black dot can be revealed when viewed in three dimensions as a tube. But what we see as a tube could, in the fourth dimension, appear as something quite different. As a layman I doubt I can correctly describe it, but Carl Sagan can.
While it’s not necessary to understand this concept to follow the theory behind the Find Laura series, I believe it is a basic structural principal of the world of Twin Peaks, especially for Season 3. The infinite starfield through which Cooper traveled to get here is the subconscious of Laura Palmer, and that subconscious is the fourth-dimensional space of the world we observe in Twin Peaks Season 3.
The characters in the story exist in and can only see the three-dimensional projection of the fourth-dimensional psyche of Laura, as we in the real world can only experience the three-dimensional world that contains us. But we, as viewers, get to see behind the curtain where Lynch paints the fourth-dimensional space of the inner workings of Laura Palmer’s consciousness in the abstract, and also shows how it manifests and expresses itself as the dramas in the three-dimensional world of Twin Peaks.
But we cannot understand what we see because we are so used to describing the 3D projection, rather than the 4D object itself. That is, we witness the projected abstractions of the original occurrence. Here with Find Laura we’re attempting to describe the 4D consciousness that casts that twisted 3D shadow. The current version of this shadow takes form as Las Vegas

This Cooper, the Good Cooper, is an innocent, literally lacking sense. He contains no garmonbozia—he is stainless, guileless. Lacking agency he does nothing, knows nothing. He returns as a child, as opposed to the now-removed, worldly, bad dad Douglas Jones.
|| Leland’s Wound ||
Although obscure in FWWM, the film’s script singles out both the bloody towel and the torn diary pages, and especially references “Leland’s Wound.” It is not clear but the implication is that in the train car while repeatedly stabbing Laura, Leland also stabbed himself. The towel was stuffed into his shirt, and then (according to the original script) prior to entering the circle of sycamores he threw the bloody towel and diary pages to the wind.
In the final Red Room scene of FWWM, when the pietàed MIKE and the Arm request all the garmonbozia, BOB reaches up to Leland’s bloody gut (where once was the bloody towel and diary pages) and throws that blood on the Red Room floor, where it is absorbed and then consumed by the Arm in the form of creamed corn.
The connection is abstract but direct. The abuse of his daughter and the knowledge of it manifest in the train car. The bloody towel is Leland’s guilt (a self-inflicted, bleeding wound), and the diary pages are knowledge (those specific diary pages are said to identify her “killer”). Leland is relieved of both these thing in the Red Room of Laura’s subconscious.

We can remember that Agent Cooper receives his own version of Leland’s Wound in the season 1 cliffhanger when he is shot in the stomach, a similar wound to one the Bad Cooper will receive at the hands of that fucker Ray in Part 8.
That the Bad Cooper will place the Ring on Ray’s finger in Part 13 as the Good Cooper places the Ring on the Bad Cooper’s hand in Part 17 is a parallel deserving closer examination when we get there.
But for now...

We’ve established that garmonbozia is Leland’s pain and sorrow, his guilt over abusing his daughter. And I have already asserted that it is through her “death” in the train car that Laura took on and removed Leland’s guilt, as Jesus was to take away the sins of the world, to be the sacrificial lamb, the scapegoat that allowed forgiveness of all sin.
She made it all her fault, and once it was all her fault the only way to stop it was for her to die. Although the line of dialogue is missing from the finished film, the script lays it out plainly:

1.  INT. TRAIN CAR - NIGHT 

   Leland hoists Laura up so that she hovers facing the floor a foot off the ground. He places a mirror on the floor directly under her face.
   IN THE MIRROR
   Laura sees herself turn into Bob. Leland screams into space.
   

    LELAND DON'T MAKE ME DO IT. LAURA NO, YOU HAVE TO KILL ME. LELAND I always thought you knew it was me. LAURA (to Bob in the mirror) NO! YOU CAN'T HAVE ME. (to Leland) KILL ME. 

That Laura is directing Leland’s behavior here makes it clear that this is a fantasy, a hallucination of Laura’s drug-addled psyche as she tries to figure out a way to escape BOB and save her father, family, and her friends from the influence of BOB.
It would seem that her last chance is her Sunday School lessons of the crucifixion. Sacrifice, redemption, and forgiveness. After all she was only twelve when the abuse began. What understanding beyond a Sunday School spirituality could a pre-teen girl hope to possess to deal with what she believed was an evil spirit?
|| 2:53 ||
So, what happens at 2:53 in Part 3?
In South Dakota, it’s a giant smash-up on the road to nowhere with the Bad Cooper’s car going wheels-up and flipping over.
In the Red Room the Good Cooper, while watching the Bad Cooper approach through the curtain, is forced into a “nonexistent” space by the Arm’s doppelgänger.
Fun to note that as the Bad Cooper is looking at a map of South Dakota on his computer after killing Daria but prior to finding Chantal in the next room, in the Red Room Agent Cooper is looking through the curtain at South Dakota itself. The black car containing the Bad Cooper is barreling directly toward Agent Cooper, foreshadowing DougieCoop’s entrance toward us through the Rancho Rosa bedroom wall socket.
While in the Mauve Zone Agent Cooper will leave Naido’s room and enter American Girl’s room matching the Bad Cooper’s movement from Daria’s room (who is as dead as Naido is gone) and enter Chantal’s room, a scene we’ve already addressed. But here’s a visual echo we hadn’t mentioned: compare the curtains and chair to the jacket and bedspread.
Next Up: Jade Give Two Rides
If you like what you’ve read and would like to support my writing, you can tip me here.
Thanks! Lou Ming

SECTION 0: BACKGROUND
I am being deliberately vague about my age, location and job, to allow for greater transparency about my finances. I work in a very narrow field, which would make me pretty easy to identify if I more accurately pinpointed these details.
That being said, to provide some context about our decision-making about childcare, my family and I had CoVID in the mid-summer.
We had been doing everything correctly: We weren’t leaving the house, our children were out of daycare, my husband and I were working from home and running ourselves ragged also offering full-time childcare to a 2-year-old son and a 1-year-old daughter. We are both essential workers in different fields and we couldn’t lighten our workload. Additionally, I can only work set hours because that’s when my patients are available. So I was keeping a more traditional schedule while my husband was doing the bulk of childcare, and then we would both be with the kids for a few hours until bedtime at 7:30, at which point my husband would burn the candle at both ends and do the majority of his work in the evening and at night. It was completely unsustainable. It was bad for our jobs, bad for our kids and bad for us.
So we hired a nanny. She came from our daycare, because our kids already knew her and she effectively lost her job when we pulled our kids. The daycare has to maintain a specific child-to-teacher ratio and removing our children took them below the enrollment necessary for her. After 4 weeks of my husband and myself providing childcare, we hired her. She was a godsend.
Fast forward, she attended a staff training at the daycare (masked, gloved, the whole 9 yards) and at that time our daycare was struck with CoVID, which meant we all got it. My family, our nanny, several staff and several families. It was a blessing in disguise, because after we all quarantined and recovered, my husband and I made the decision to send our children back to daycare. The vast majority of the families and staff there had CoVID, we knew we had antibodies (thank you, American Red Cross), and we decided the risk was acceptable.
​
SECTION 1: ASSETS AND DEBT (ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST $100)
Investment balance (as of COB on 12/16/20) = $601,000

• Brokerage = $104,700
• My traditional IRA (from previous employers’ retirement accounts) = $41,400
• My Roth IRA = $61,900
• My 401K = $205,200
• My husband’s 401K = $156,000
• My husband’s Roth IRA = $18,000
• My son’s 529 = $9,000
• My daughter’s 529 = $4,800

Equity, if you’re a homeowner = $300,700

• Main residence: Mortgage = $233,300, Zillow value = $455,200
• Rental property: Mortgage = $125,300, Zillow value = $204,100

I used the Zillow value to calculate equity. Our real estate market is HOT right now, and houses are routinely being purchased after bidding wars at prices above asking, so I actually expect these to be underestimates of the values of our properties.
The rental property was a home I owned before my husband and I married. I paid 20% for the down payment with savings, and the house was worth substantially less when I bought it, making it very affordable. We made a 10% down payment on our primary residence from shared savings. Since we bought both houses, the real estate market in our area has blown up and it has stayed that way. We joke that we wouldn’t be able to afford our primary residence if we were house hunting right now, which puts us in a very fortunate position.
Savings account balance = $6,200
We try to keep at least $5,000 in this count as liquid emergency savings. Withdrawing funds from our investment portfolio can take several days, and if needed we want to make sure to have at least some cash buffer. See below for why this is higher right now, due to my Social Security deduction.
Checking account balance = $3,700
We use zero-sum budgeting, which means we use last month’s income to pay for this month’s expenses. All of our income is deposited into this account, we spend it throughout the month, and then start next month with $7,000 to spend that month (anything above this amount in our checking account is sent to our savings account).
Credit card debt = $0
I’ve never held credit card debt, and we paid my husband’s off before we got married.
Student loan debt = $0
I received a huge scholarship to attend a private 4-year college, and an annuity I received following my father’s death when I was in middle school paid for the rest. I worked part-time on campus to have spending money, and this job was part of the scholarship I received. I also received a full scholarship plus a living stipend to attend graduate school for my doctorate. My husband had approximately $10,000 of student loan debt for his 4-year degree that we paid off before we got married.
Car and motorcycle loans = $0
The KBB trade-in value of our cars and motorcycles is $16,500; all are over 10-years-old.
Net worth = $928,100
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SECTION 2: INCOME
Monthly take home = $7,593 total (plus $416 from FSA reimbursement)
Main job = $103,000/year
I take home $2,000 every two weeks after deductions. This is $220 more than usual, because (as a federal employee and due to President Trump’s executive order) Social Security is no longer being deducted from my salary, through at least January, 2021. I expect in January I’m going to receive a double deduction for the period of this executive order, so we’re setting aside that extra money to pay for his choices.
Job 2 = variable based on several factors, right now it is approximately $12,000/year
I work as an adjunct professor at a local university teaching one class per semester and take home $353 every two weeks.
Rental property = $883.50/month in rental income
Minus the cost of the mortgage and the $66.50/month property manager cut, this equals approximately $97/month in profit. This used to be substantially more, but we took a cash out refinance to pay for a huge remodel in our main residence, which increased the mortgage payment by about $250/month. We previously sent the surplus rental income to our investment account.
Husband’s job = $79,000/year
My husband takes home $1,395 twice a month after deductions. However, he routinely takes home between $200-$400 more per paycheck, depending on various factors. We only budget for his base pay, as those other amounts are not guaranteed. Currently, he’s contributing the maximum allowed to his FSA account ($208/paycheck) for dependent care, which we receive twice monthly as reimbursement and which will switch to my paycheck in the new year.
Deductions: I am only going to include mine here, as my salary deductions include most of the family expenses. These are per paycheck. I am including my deductions as they were prior to the executive order that affected my Social Security contribution, which I anticipate will return to normal shortly.
Taxes (Medicare, state and federal) = $554
Insurance for the family (Life, dental, medical, disability) = $489
Retirement (401K and pension) = $905
I max out my 401K contribution and have since I started this job; my employer offers a 4% match. For full context, my husband also maxes out his 401K contributions, and his employer offers a 3% match.
529 contributions: $115 per child, so $230 total
Income progression
I was in school for a very long time. I went directly from a 4-year college to a Ph.D. program. As stated above, I received a stipend while in graduate school that amounted to $17,000/year, which was not a lot but enough for 22-year-old me. My first job out of graduate school was as a postdoctoral fellow, making $45,000, and then I went into academia and worked as an Assistant Professor making a similar amount. I decided to transition into practice after two years in academia, and I started my current job with the federal government making approximately $90,000. Scheduled salary progressions over the last six years have resulted in my current salary.
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SECTION 3: EXPENSES
Monthly

• Mortgage/taxes/insurance = $1,179.33 for our main residence, $785.78 for our rental property
• Daycare = $1,520 for both children
• Roth IRA contributions (both) = $1,000
• Donations = $213.87. $100/month to GiveWell (an effective altruism organization), $100/month to Gold Standard (for carbon offsets), $13.87 to ActBlue.
• Gas/electric/water = $169.25
• Cleaning = $100. She comes twice monthly; she prefers to be called our “woman” vs. cleaning lady or housekeeper. She is masked and gloved every time she comes into our home. We paused her services though continued to pay her for the first few months of the pandemic. Once we’d had CoVID, though, she requested to come back. We would have paid her throughout regardless, but after a frank discussion with her about our continued risk with our children in daycare, she still wanted to come back and began to clean for us again.
• Internet = $80
• Pet wellness plan (for our very geriatric dog) = $79.95
• My cell phone (my husband’s is paid for by work) = $47.18
• Home security system = $45
• Son’s gymnastics at daycare = $40
• My husband’s gym = $16.95. He has not gone since 03/2020; he is continuing to pay to support them.
• Satellite GPS/texting system = $12.41. My husband has a lot of hobbies that take him outside of cell phone service. We got this for him to allow us to text in case of an emergency, and to send me notifications of where he is physically camped so I can get emergency services to him, if needed.
• Subscriptions = $35 biweekly for a Misfits Market box, $9.99 for Spotify, $8.99 for Netflix
• Total monthly fixed expenses = $5,378.70

Yearly and Bi-annual

• Car and motorcycle insurance = $416.60
• Amazon Prime = $119
• Costco = $60
• My license = $200 every two years

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SECTION 4: ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS
\*These are the questions others have said they wished Refinery 29 asked.*\**
What do money and success mean to you? What are your end goals?
To me, success and money are two very different things. I view money as a means to an end: Money equals security and stability. I chose to work for the federal government, even though I could make approximately double my salary in private practice, because of that need for security. My end goals are FIRE-light. My husband and I would like to save enough money to be able to reduce our work to part-time; we both really enjoy our jobs but would like more freedom to choose what to do with our time.
Are you a spender or a saver?
I identify very strongly as a saver. My mother raised me and my siblings largely alone (more on this below), and she was unmaterialistic. This has changed now that she has grandchildren to spoil! But that lesson was there from an early age: Things do not bring happiness. This has led me to a pretty natural saver orientation.
My husband was not a saver before we got together. He was not a huge spender, either. He just didn’t really pay attention to money. When we got together his retirement account was at approximately $0. He and I sat down and talked about our goals and decided to approach his retirement in the same way I approach mine, so we now max out everything we can.
He continues to be largely ambivalent about our finances, so I manage everything. This leads every once in a while to small conflicts, but we work it out. I try to include him in as many decisions as possible, but he genuinely seems not to care and pretty much goes along with everything I suggest. It helps tremendously that my husband and I share an overall view of our future, because I’m honestly not sure our relationship would work if he was a huge spender.
To combat some of the conflicts about money we might have, we give ourselves each a set amount monthly to spend as we want (me $385, him $415). He receives more because he does all of the family driving, and gas comes out of this allowance. This system works really well for us, because I would have a lot of problems with how he approaches personal spending, and vice versa. Joint or family expenses are paid for out of our joint checking account.
If you could go back in time, what’s the one piece of financial advice you would give your past self?
Invest early! Compound interest is something worth taking advantage of as early as possible.
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\*These are the questions Refinery 29 asks.*\**
Was there an expectation for you to attend higher education? Did you participate in any form of higher education? If yes, how did you pay for it?
There was absolutely an expectation for me and my siblings to attend college. I was a very dedicated student and I wanted to be in my current role for as long as I could remember. I strategically selected the university I attended with the potential for graduate school admission as a strong factor in my choice.
I luckily have never had to pay for my higher education and I recognize how fortunate I was. My college expenses not covered by my scholarship were paid for with an annuity I received after my father passed away when I was in middle school. He had been very sick with cancer my entire life and he knew he was terminal for years. He worked until the month before he passed away and contributed heavily the entire time to life insurance policies to give my siblings and me this gift, as well as to provide enough for my mother to make up for the loss of his income. He passed away while working for the federal government at my current pay level, so I know he was making the equivalent to what I make now. At that point, my mom made less than half of what he did. It goes without saying, I would have rather had student loans with him alive than no student loans without him.
Growing up, what kind of conversations did you have about money? Did your parent/guardian(s) educate you about finances?
I don’t remember any explicit conversations about money. I have learned much more about my parents’ finances since I’ve become an adult than I ever knew growing up. All of my financial education occurred after graduate school when I had my first “big girl” paychecks. I knew I needed to know more, so I did a deep dive into the FIRE community for a few years, learned a lot, and have tried to follow those principles since.
What was your first job and why did you get it?
I worked at Dairy Queen starting when I was 15 to have spending money. While there, I ate far too much ice cream, gained like 10 pounds in 3 months, and quit because I recognized that was completely unsustainable.
Did you worry about money growing up?
No, I didn’t, and I’m grateful for that. I knew that we never went on vacations, aside from camping, because of my dad’s illness. I had no idea, however, that this was a financially-motivated decision vs. a health-related one. My dad wanted to save that money for us later instead of spend it on us at the time.
Do you worry about money now?
No, and I am very grateful for that, as well. I worry about making big purchases, because I have an inherent tendency to not spend unless necessary, though I acknowledge we can afford our needs and wants.
At what age did you become financially responsible for yourself and do you have a financial safety net?
I moved out of my mom’s house at 18 to attend an out-of-state college, and I never returned. However, I would say that I became fully responsible for myself at 22, when I enrolled in graduate school. Up to that point, I lived in dorms, had access to the college cafeteria and health center, etc.
I have a huge financial safety net in my family, which is an enormous privilege. I know that I never need to worry if I lose my income or if we had an emergency. That being said, one of the huge factors in my choosing federal employment was the security of the job. My husband was furloughed early in the pandemic, which was a strain on our finances, but we knew I never would be. It is a longstanding joke, but it is true that it’s almost impossible to lose a federal job within my agency once you’re outside of your probationary period.
Do you or have you ever received passive or inherited income? If yes, please explain?
See above; my family received a great deal of money from life insurance after my father passed away. I honestly have no idea how much, though it was enough that it funded a lot of my college expenses, as well as my siblings’, and allowed my mom never to worry day-to-day about paying for anything on her salary alone. I never received any of the annuity personally; my mom managed it and paid the college directly. Once I graduated, my portion of the annuity was resolved. My mom became extremely savvy with money management over the years, and still has some of her portion of the annuity remaining.
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ONTO THE DIARY!
Full disclosure, my weekdays are very monotonous, so I’m going to give you a brief look at my schedule here and then try to limit myself to amusing anecdotes and spending only on Days 1-5. Days 6 and 7 will be more interesting.
We get up around 6:30, when my daughter (just turned 2) wakes up; it is unfortunate she’s always been an early riser. At 7:15, if he’s not already up, I wake my son (just turned 3) and get both kids ready while my husband gets himself ready. He takes the children to daycare, and then I get ready. I do a full face of make-up every day; it helps me keep in mind that I’m a working professional, although I haven’t worn a pair of pants with buttons in 9 months.
I see patients throughout the morning, working in 45 minutes of exercise (whatever Chloe Ting scheduled for the day, plus a Yoga with Adriene video to hit 45 minutes) and chores in between patients or if I have a patient no-show or cancel. This is infrequent, so usually these activities happen over lunch, when I almost exclusively eat leftovers. Then I see patients throughout the afternoon, before stopping to cook dinner. I meal plan heavily (entirely from Budget Bytes or Half-Baked Harvest); I love to cook but find trying to think up child-friendly, quick and easy vegetarian meals incredibly boring and frustrating. It helps if I outsource the creativity to others. My husband and I leave to get the kids around 4:50 pm.
Then it’s like getting hit by a clown car. Constant noise, constant activity, constant mess, constant chaos. The children go to bed around 7:30 pm, at which point my husband and I fall into an exhausted heap. I try to “reset” the house (e.g., pick up toys, get the kids’ school bags ready) before I sit down, because once I sit down I’m done. Most days I shower in the evening, and we go to bed around 9:30 or 10 pm. Sometimes we have sex, sometimes we don’t. Wash, rinse, repeat.
For your enjoyment, our meal plan this week includes:

• From Budget Bytes: Spinach tortellini soup; vegetarian French dip sandwiches with oven fries; roasted broccoli pasta with lemon and feta; spinach and orzo salad with balsamic vinaigrette
• From Half-Baked Harvest: Onion, spinach and cheddar flaky pastries; broccoli and cheese wild rice casserole

Also for those who are interested, my skin care includes: Water-only cleansing with a microfiber cloth, 100% pure organic argan oil for moisturizer, with Everyday Minerals and Physician’s Formula make-up. I have extremely temperamental skin and this is the gentlest combination of products that work for me.
**I will only tally my personal expenses and our joint expenses below, because I don’t have access to my husband’s personal account. If I know about his purchases, I will mention them for context, though they will not be included in the weekly total.**
DAY 1: MONDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2020 = $37.63
Morning: My husband goes to physical therapy ($37.63 copay) after dropping off the kids. He’s rehabbing a pretty significant injury from earlier this year and PT is necessary, despite the pandemic. Before PT, he was immobile. While I’m on a break between patients in the kitchen eating a banana, my husband storms in fake indignant because his Spotify most-played song of 2020 is “What Does the Fox Say?” I laugh; this was my son’s favorite song for months. If you haven’t heard it before, it’s worth a look on YouTube, so you can see the video.
Noon: Pull a load of laundry from the dryer. Find two of my son’s action figures amongst the clothes. So that’s where they went. Later receive a picture from daycare of my daughter crying. She apparently lost her gloves in the snow, and when the gloves were found the daycare staff wouldn’t let her put them back on because they were covered in mud and snow. This is clearly tragic in the life of a toddler. The caption on the photo: “Yeah, I’m a little mad.”
Night: My husband and I spend a few minutes lying in bed with each of our children before they go to sleep every night. Tonight, my son is incredibly focused on his discovery that he doesn’t have eyebrows and I do. He does, they’re just wispy and barely there. He spent a good five minutes feeling mine, then feeling where his “aren’t.” It’s adorable how confused he is to find out that not every body is the same, and I try to focus on teaching him that differences are beautiful. I feel this is a good lesson to learn and to learn early.
DAY 2: TUESDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2020 = $0
Morning: My kids are up kind of early today, so while I fix them breakfast, I send them to ride their scooters. My mom bought them these scooters that are both low-to-the-ground, so they fly across our hardwood, and narrow, so they fit between our furniture. We decided to keep them indoors for the winter to help the children run off some energy if it’s too cold or, in this case, too early to take them outside.
Noon: For lunch, I quickly assemble Budget Bytes’ Chimichurri Chickpea Salad from leftover ingredients and pantry staples and give my husband a serving. He accuses me of trying to turn him into a chickpea, because it’s my go-to protein. He’s not vegetarian, but he eats that way 95% of the time because I don’t cook meat except on very rare occasions. I tell him if he doesn’t like it, he can fix himself lunch, and fake try to take it away. He embraces the bowl like it’s a baby and fights me off. I see how it is. I also check the Red Cross app and find my CoVID antibody test from my most recent convalescent plasma donation is still positive!
Night: After dinner, we go into my daughter’s bedroom to play before bath time. I contemplate how ironic it is that we own a four-bedroom house, but usually only end up occupying about 16 square feet of space at a time. Then my children decide to sit on top of me. I exist right now as nothing more than an animate chair.
DAY 3: WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2020 = $0
Morning: After bundling up my children to send to daycare, I ask my daughter for a kiss. She’s moved beyond leaning in to allow me to kiss her to spreading her arms super wide and pressing her whole face onto my cheek. It’s the little things that make parenting awesome <3.
Noon: It’s the anniversary of our first date, so I pull my husband into the bedroom for some lunch time calisthenics #wfhbenefits. Feel totally betrayed afterward because during my Yoga with Adriene relaxation practice, she has us do two forearm planks. WTF, Adriene? I didn’t sign on for this! Do them, but begrudgingly.
Night: Tonight’s game: family nap. Somehow my husband got the kids to buy into the idea that they need to find a place to camp out in our house. They’re carrying around a pillow and blanket each and trying out various locations, like under our dining table and on our living room floor. I’m loving this game, because I’ve already found my perfect place to lay down: right where I already am.
DAY 4: THURSDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2020 = $183.48
Morning: My husband is an absolute expert when it comes to distracting the kids if they’re crying crocodile tears. This isn’t always the answer in response to their emotions, but sometimes it is. Right now, he’s trying to hang my daughter’s coat (with her in it) up in the closet without a hanger and acting over the top confused about why it won’t stay up on the closet rod. She’s dying with laughter. Classic.
Noon: My husband gets back from physical therapy ($37.63 copay) and walks in with a soda from McDonald’s for me as a surprise ($2.12 for his, too). So sweet! I don’t drink soda often, which makes this a welcome treat. Over lunch, I browse ThredUp. I buy exclusively consignment/resale, to reduce consumer-driven fast-fashion and because I can buy way nicer clothing if I don’t pay full retail prices. I buy four shirts and two pairs of pants ($143.73 of my personal spending money), though I’ll probably return half.
Night: Tonight is my book club’s holiday party over Zoom. I love these women and it’s so nice to step outside of my roles as a wife, mother and behavioral health provider to just be a woman. I’m incredibly lucky to have found this group that unequivocally accepts me for who I am.
DAY 5: FRIDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2020 = $0
Morning: I took the morning off to grade final exams, and my husband is heading up the mountain to go skiing. I have the house TO MYSELF! This happens so rarely, I almost don’t know what to do with myself when I’m alone anymore.
Noon: Silence, glorious silence. Decide to take a nap. This is freaking amazing. Wake up to a notice from the federal payroll office confirming I’ll be receiving double deductions of Social Security tax from my first 8 paychecks of 2021. Great.
Night: Spend the evening after my kids go to bed wrapping Christmas presents. My family seems to be compensating for the anxiety and sadness 2020 has caused by sending gifts. Watching the children unwrap presents this year is the thing I’m looking forward to most this holiday season.
DAY 6: SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2020 = $251.65
Morning:
My husband gets up with the kids, so I get to sleep in an extra hour (he will be properly thanked for this later). We quickly get ready and head out the door, setting our robot vacuum to take a run around the house. The kids and I wait in the car while my husband buys a season ski pass from his own personal spending money ($371, for those who are interested). He got a discount because they credit him the cost of his pass from yesterday. I fully support this, as he intends to teach our kids to ski this year and I am invested in the long-term possibility of evenings and weekend days by myself, since I most definitely do not ski.
Head to a local indoor playground ($15.72, after a $7.60 gift card); our kids tolerate mask-wearing incredibly well, so we’re all masked anytime we go inside anywhere. We have gotten good at what I consider “stealth visits”: We show up the instant the doors open, stay until we cannot keep 30 feet from others, and then leave.
We grab coffees ($6.04), a weekend treat, and head to an outdoor park to run our children ragged until it’s too cold to tolerate anymore.
Noon:
We head home, bake a frozen pizza and have that and leftovers for lunch. New outfits for everyone, because my daughter is too young to handle pizza sauce without getting it everywhere. Then back out the door to make it back to the indoor playground by 1 pm (our passes are good all day). This is when most children are down for their naps, so as usual the place is deserted.
Unfortunately, my daughter is learning to jump and while at the playground she jumps and falls, bumping her head. This leads to the silent scream of doom that is every parent’s worst nightmare.
After we leave, to put our own children down to nap, my son asks for more snacks. I thought I had packed enough, but not so. I swear my son is growing by inches in front of my eyes. He has a hollow leg and often can eat more than I can. My husband and kids wait in the car while I run into an empty-looking gas station and buy string cheese, fruit, popcorn and seltzers ($10.05).
The instant we get home the kids go down for their naps and my husband and I have a moment of peace. I start the dishwasher, throw the food scraps to our chickens, take out the compost and purchase the items in our Amazon cart (a new robot vacuum [ours is on its last legs and we LOVE it], soccer socks for my husband, and two under $5 gifts for the gift exchange at my children’s daycare; $219.84). My husband cleans out our chicken coop; I’m not in favor of gendered divisions of labor, except in cases like this, when it means I don’t have to deal with chicken poop.
Night:
The kids get up from their naps and we immediately put them on the potty. We’re deep in the trenches of potty training, and this often dictates our routine. My daughter is 150% motivated by the M&M she gets when she goes potty; my son just wants to do everything his sister does, so he tolerates this part of his day.
Feed them dinner and then head out to drive through a famous neighborhood in our area to look at Christmas lights. We take air-popped popcorn and milk for the kids, to keep them entertained, and they love it. Back home and bedtime for the kids.
My husband and I pick up the house, watch an episode of Ink Master (feel free to judge, but I love this show), and head to bed early so I can thank him properly for this morning.
DAY 7: SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2020 = $303.33
Morning:
My husband gets up with the kids again this morning, he must be feeling motivated because he’s already fed them breakfast. I jump in so he can get ready to go play indoor soccer. The facility where he plays is extremely cautious: masks, temperature checks, no outside guests, no loitering before or after the game, etc. He helps us get ready and out the door before he leaves so the kids and I can go to get our grocery pick up.
Groceries include the ingredients for our meal plan this coming week ($187.59). We also load up on a few staples like organic 100% grass-fed milk, seltzer, popcorn kernels and toiletries. Our overall fruit situation is looking good, as we participated in a local fundraiser and purchased a huge box of apples, pears, oranges and grapefruits, so I decided yesterday to donate our Misfits Market box this week to a food bank. The person at the grocery store indicates they have a couple of missing items from our order, including coffee (!!!), so the kids and I mask up and we run inside as quickly as we can to buy replacement items, including the absolutely necessary coffee ($19.04).
Then I take the kids on a little drive to look at Christmas decorations, and while we’re out I buy them a snack from a local vegetarian restaurant that has begun to do drive-thru service ($15.53). I buy gas for the first time in six weeks and head home ($13.73).
Noon:
My husband gets back from his game (they won), we feed the kids and then get them ready to go out again. If you haven’t noticed, we spend a lot of time outside of our house. Neither my husband nor I are homebodies, and our kids (surprise, surprise) aren’t either; the more time we spend at home, the more they spiral out. However, because the pandemic has gone on for so long, we have developed an amazing repertoire of knowledge for places that are accessible, kid-friendly and extremely sparsely populated (or deserted). It helps us keep the kids occupied, and honestly it makes parenting two toddlers much easier.
We go to a local warehouse that has converted into an antique/secondhand shop to look for a present for my sister from our children and find something amazing ($43.44 of my personal spending money). Head home, have lunch, and put the kids down for a nap. I spend the time finishing grading final exams, while my husband does the dishes and works a little bit to get ahead so he can go skiing this week.
Night:
My daughter wakes up and makes enough of a ruckus that she gets my son up, too. Immediately take the kids to the potty while my husband finishes what he’s doing. Cue an epic meltdown from my daughter because her brother gets to go potty first. My husband jumps in and starts getting the kids ready to leave again so I can go to the bathroom. My son joins me. Motherhood means never having (getting?) to go to the bathroom alone again.
We head to another local indoor children’s playground, because a snowstorm just started and we’re taking a gamble that it will be empty. It is! Spend a few hours there, then head home ($24).
I heat up Budget Bytes’ Make-Ahead Freezer Burritos for dinner. While they’re cooking, my husband gives the kids a bath and I put away laundry. My husband emerges from the bathroom looking like he’s taken an impromptu trip to Splash Mountain. At dinner, our kids immediately start to misbehave for some unknown reason (they’re toddlers). Parenthood is often a game of chicken: How far can they push it before my husband or I call the match in our favor. We separate the kids; I go to read to my son, my husband to my daughter, and we put them to bed early.
My husband and I watch another episode of Ink Master, read for a bit, talk for a bit, and head to bed.
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WEEKLY TOTAL = $776.09 ($588.92 JOINT, $187.17 PERSONAL)

• Food + Drink = $240.37
• Fun/Entertainment = $39.72
• Home + Health = $295.10
• Clothes + Beauty = $143.73
• Transport = $13.73
• Other = $43.44

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Reflection: Honestly, this is an average week for us. I’d say we don’t buy a robot vacuum every week, and I tend to only buy clothes once a month at most, but there’s always something. Generally speaking, we have a few dollars up to a couple hundred to save most months, but there are some months when we go over our budget. At this point, our day-to-day spending is relatively on auto-pilot and falls pretty naturally into a narrow range, so across the whole year, we tend to break even.