Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.

Welcome back to year twelve of the Alabama Slammers Franchise Report! Here are the links to the previous versions if you want to catch up (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031). Go ahead and grab some popcorn, this is a long one.
We had another great season last year, followed by another disappointing playoff exit. I like where the franchise is at though. We have great fan interest/loyalty, talent at every level of the organization, and no bad contracts. We’re probably going to have to part with a few key contributors this offseason, but that’s bound to happen when you have as much talent as we do. With a few smart moves, we should push closer to a title this year.
As with the previous versions, I’ll list the moves I made, the rationale behind those moves, the season results, and the future outlook.
Here are the salaries heading into the offseason.
\Unless stated otherwise, all players were re-signed to their one-year arbitration estimate*
Departures (non-trades):
Edwin Aguirre
Aguirre spent some time in the majors last year when Romo was injured but wasn’t needed this season. He’s entering minor league free agency, and I don’t think he’s worth keeping on the 40-man, so he probably won’t be back.
Josh Berkner
Berkner got three shots in the majors and didn’t do much with his opportunities, so I decided to give someone else a chance. He spent the year in AAA.
Tim Mehler
Mehler is great defensively but just can’t cut it at the plate. He was out of options, so I let him leave as a free agent. He signed a minor league deal with the Rockies.
Move #1:
Signed Ali Sanchez to a 2/$3m extension. The second year is a team option with a $500k buyout.
This move isn’t very exciting, but don’t worry, things will heat up below.
Move #2:
Slammers Receive: Luis Godoy, $6.4m Cash
Brewers Receive: Robby Teeter, Sean Whiteman
This move kills three birds with one stone. I cashed out on Teeter while his value was still high, cleared some of the starting pitcher logjam, and added an elite power hitter. Also, the departure of Teeter allows us the ability to build a more versatile roster, which is something I’ve wanted to do for a while.
The Brewers are winning this trade from a straight value perspective, but I’m no longer in the business of trying to win trades. I’m trying to win championships. You can collect all the assets and value contracts in the world, but at the end of the day, you need top end talent to win at the highest level – and Godoy provides that. He has questionable character, but I should have enough leadership to counter his selfish ways.
Move #3:
Slammers Receive: Edgar Sanchez, Bryn Hill, Caleb Gunther, Omar Taborda, Tim Brackman
Athletics Receive: Chris West
West might have more potential than any pitcher in the league, but I felt the opportunity to acquire Sanchez was too great to pass up. He’s an elite defender, above average offensively, has durable injury proneness, and has great character. He could anchor the middle of my infield for the next ten years. West might win the next five Cy Youngs, but I’m betting against that considering his low work ethic and the general injury proneness of pitchers.
Then to make the deal even better, the Athletics threw in an assortment of high character minor leaguers. There might not be a single player in the bunch that makes the majors, but they’ll at least help provide a better environment for other guys.
Move #4:
Slammers Receive: Bob Banks, $3m Cash
Angels Receive: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Why am I getting rid of Tatis for a low-level minor leaguer with a 5% chance of making the majors? You’ll find out when you get to move number six.
The Angels signed Tatis to a 5/$237.5m extension about a week after the trade. I don’t see any way that deal ends well for them.
Move #5:
Slammers Receive: Alan McCarter
Rays Receive: Josh Epps, $1.1m Cash
At surface level, this trade doesn’t make much sense either, but I needed to clear Epps $10m arbitration estimate for next season. I think Epps is what he is at this point and I’m really not that worried about losing him. MacCarter is a good reliever and replaces Epps as the team prankster.
Move #6:
Signed free agent Willie Vega to a 7/$190m deal. The last year is a team option with a $2m buyout.
This is the driving force behind moves five and six. I fully intended to move on from Vega at the start of the offseason, but after looking at my roster at the start of free agency, I decided he was irreplaceable. He provides gold glove defense, above average offense, and hits from the left side of the plate, which makes balancing lineups much easier. I could’ve had him for much cheaper if I decided to commit last year but this is the price of my indecision.
His deal is heavily front loaded and should be movable if things don’t go well later in the contract.
Move #7 (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3):
Slammers Receive: $13.7m Cash
Slammers Lose: Joe Stadler, Randy Macke, Nesty Luna
Nothing much to see here, just your annual “prospects for cash” trades. Macke is a solid player but was rule 5 eligible and I didn’t want to waste a 40-man roster spot on him.
Move #8:
Slammers Receive: $1m Cash
Dodgers Receive: Cooper Benson, Sam Lauderdale, Kade Grundy
This is just a salary dump. I have enough depth now there’s really no point in keeping Benson and Lauderdale around. I threw in Grundy to get some extra cash.
Final Financial Situation:
We have about $27m in budget room to start the year, so should be able to finish the season in the green, but I’ll probably trade a few more prospects to get closer to completing the owner goal of finishing with a balance of $20m. I’m also boosting ticket prices from $35 to $40, so that should help as well.
Here are the salaries heading into the season.
Season Outlook:
I’m very interested to see how this season turns out. We’ve been cruising along the past 2-3 years with the same core roster but really shook things up this offseason. I think these moves put us in a better position to win now and in the future, but there’s always the concern I’m just making moves out of boredom. Here are the five things I’m most curious about heading into the season:
1.) Can Vega provide close to what he’s provided the past few years? I didn’t give him that contract in anticipation of him becoming the next Barry Bonds, I just want him to keep doing what he’s doing. If he can do that for another three years, I’ll be happy.
2.) Is MacDonald really a top of the line starting pitcher? He was the best reliever in the league last year and his trade value is sky high. Every team I traded with this offseason valued him as my second-best asset after Chris West. His overall rating is really good, but I’m concerned about his lack of stuff and questionable stamina/hold runners combo.
3.) How does the offense perform after losing our 3-4 hitters from last season? I know I replaced one of them with Godoy, but players tend to struggle when first joining a new team, and we don’t have a second premier middle of the order bat. We’ll mostly be doing an offense by committee approach.
4.) Can Hines handle a full-time starting role? With the departure of Tatis, I’m moving Bernal to third base and starting Hines at first. He’s not a traditional first baseman but he played well last year and has an efficient ratings profile. I’ll be happy if he provides league average offense.
5.) How will the Hopper/Muntner DH platoon fare? Hopper should be an elite leadoff man vs. RHP and Muntner should be solid vs. LHP. I’m hoping Hopper can play a full season if he doesn’t have to play in the field.
If things go well, we should win another 100+ games and make a strong push at a title.
Batters:
Primary Lineup vs. RHP and vs. LHP when Healthy (\DH enabled in both leagues, lineup vs. RHP listed below)*
DH – Jeff Hopper
Other than a day-to-day injury to end the year, Hopper stayed healthy the entire season and played really well. He had an OBP of .370 and provided exactly what I wanted from the leadoff spot. He should be back in the same role next year.
3B – Ernesto Bernal
I forgot to mention above, but Bernal signed a 5/$110m in the offseason. He’s an all-star, has high character, durable injury proneness, and is in the prime of his career, so it made a lot of sense to bring him back at this price. He’s been with the organization for ten years and it would be really cool to have him around for ten more.
He moved from first to third base this season and made his third all-star team.
RF – Luis Godoy
Godoy didn’t have the type of year I expected but was still really good. He was an all-star starter and put up 5.1 WAR in just 128 games. I expect him to be much better next season after having a full year to adjust to his new team.
He missed the last month of the year with a sprained thumb, but he should be fine going forward.
LF – Marcus Flakes
Flakes isn’t the second middle of the order bat I dreamed about as a kid, but he did well in the role, hitting 41 home runs and driving in 101 runs. He still has one more year on a minimum scale deal, so he’ll definitely return.
SS – Willie Vega
Willie Vega: The Fifty Million Dollar Man – That doesn’t really sound appropriate for a guy with 4.6 WAR, but I’m actually very happy with what he did. Him and Sanchez formed an unreal middle infield defensive combo, which resulted in this (major spoilers for the pitcher section).
We’re not out of the woods yet with his contract but I think we’ll be good if he performs well again next year. At the end of next season, he’ll only have 4/$87m guaranteed remaining, which should be moveable if need be.
2B – Edgar Sanchez
I didn’t realize how much Epps was holding us back defensively until Sanchez came to town. He won his third gold glove and was a huge part of the reason we had a team ERA under 3. His offense was average, but I could see that getting much better the next few seasons.
1B – Jonathan Hines
I was hoping Hines would be a league average hitter, and he fell just short of that. I’ll upgrade in the offseason if the right player is available but I’m not going to break the bank. Not every player has to be an all-star.
CF – Joey Hudson
Hudson had a great year and is really starting to establish himself as one of the better center fielders in the league. He probably deserves to bat higher in the order next season, but I might wait for his baserunning to improve just a bit more.
C – Drew Romo
It’s been a long time coming, but Romo finally won his first gold glove. He’s been the best defensive catcher in the game for a while, but I don’t play my guys enough to easily rack up awards. I’d rather have them available for the playoffs.
He’s an upcoming free agent and his offense is falling off a cliff, but I’m probably going to bring him back. If things go poorly, I’ll replace him midseason.
Bench
C – Ali Sanchez
I don’t expect much from my backup catcher, and Sanchez doesn’t provide much, so I guess everyone was happy with the way his season turned out. I think I’m going to decline his team option and go with the guy that replaced him while he was injured.
IF – Manny Monzon
Monzon keeps the middle infield defense elite while the starters rest but doesn’t do much on offense. I might give someone else a shot next year.
OF – Josh Muntner
Muntner served as the primary DH vs. LHP and backed up left and right field against RHPs. He started in 99 games and really didn’t do much with his opportunity, so I guess I was one for two with my DH platoon experiment.
Replacements
C – Danny Wells
Wells filled in for six weeks when Sanchez was injured and didn’t do much worse than the vet. I’m probably going to let him have the backup catcher role next season.
OF – Mike Startzel
Startzel played well last year but I decided to replace him with a right-handed bat. He was called up when Godoy was injured and started the last month of the year in right field.
Pitchers:
Pitching Staff when Healthy
SP – Pat Dibartolo
Dibartolo had another great year, making his third all-star team and finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting. I would love to keep him around until he retires but his ratings have started to slip slightly, and I don’t think he’ll last too long into his thirties. I’ll bring him back for his last arbitration season, then let him walk as a free agent.
SP – Gilles Palacios
Palacios has come a long way since I traded for him in 2028. He was the all-star game starter and won his first Cy Young. I’ll look to sign him long-term in the offseason.
SP – Corey MacDonald
I wasn’t sure if MacDonald was good enough to be a top-of-the-line starter, but there’s no doubt about it now – he’s one of the top pitchers in baseball. He made his second all-star game, threw two complete game shutouts, won the pitcher of the month award in June, won the gold glove award, and finished third in the Cy Young voting. With his high character and durability, he should be a good player for a long time.
SP – Josh Sheppard
Sheppard was the fourth member of our golden pitcher quartet. He made the all-star game and finished second in the Cy Young voting.
SP – Jonathan Kelsey
Kelsey was decent but I had to demote him in June to make room for my number one prospect. He was called back up when rosters expanded and we went to a six-man rotation.
RP – Chris Ryan
I mentioned a few years ago that pitchers with Ryan’s profile never seem to reach their potential and it seems like Ryan has followed suit. He’s a solid player but nowhere near as good as his 70 potential suggested a few years back.
RP – Steve Bacon
Bacon really didn’t pitch enough to properly evaluate. We’ll probably go to an eight-man bullpen next season, and if Bacon is a member of it, we can properly evaluate him then.
RP – Alan McCarter
McCarter was really good and looks like he has the potential to be even better. Hopefully, his control rounds out next season.
RP – Danny Ibarra
Ibarra finally gave up his dream of being a starter and accepted his role in the bullpen. He posted almost identical stats as last year and I hope he does the same next season.
RP – Justus Evans
I wasn’t a big fan of Evans ratings profile but decided to give him a shot since he dominated in AAA last year. He was pretty underwhelming in limited appearances, and probably deserves another look, but he’ll be changing positions next season. Somehow, I didn’t notice he has great batting ratings, especially against lefties, so he’ll be the other half of the DH platoon I’ve been looking for. It’s too bad I disabled two-way players because it’d be nice to have him available as a pitcher in emergencies.
RP – Mike Ruhs
Ruhs is nothing special but he’s cheap and healthy, so he’ll be back next year.
RP – Joe McKinney
McKinney is my favorite kind of reliever. He has all the ratings of an elite starting pitcher, minus the stamina. He dominated for the second straight season and will be back again next year.
RP – Tommy Noonan
Noonan had an FIP of 1.98 and made his first all-star team, but somehow received zero reliever of the year votes. I really don’t see how this is possible since he’s probably the most feared pitcher in all of baseball. He strikes out half the batters he faces, and 60% of those that put the ball in play are hitting it on the ground to the Vega/Sanchez death wall. The voters need to show him some more respect next year.
RP – Glen Alcorn
I took a flier on Alcorn despite his history of back injuries and he’s paid off in a big way. He had an FIP of 1.86 and won the reliever of the year award. He wants to be a starter but there’s no way he’d survive a full season with his health issues.
Replacements
SP – Andy Schaffer
Schaffer was whitewashing AA early in the year, so I had no choice but to call him up. He pitched great in his 21 starts in the majors and might’ve given me a clean top five in the Cy Young voting if he pitched a full season.
Season Results:
We continued to put a stranglehold on the division, building a 20-game lead by the halfway point, then cruising the rest of the way. We locked up first place with 22 games remaining, making that our seventh division crown in nine years.
This year wasn’t about the regular season though. We’ve had multiple disappointing early round playoff exits the last few years and I’m hoping to break through and win our second title. We doubled down on pitching and defense and made sure to keep everyone as fresh as possible during the regular season.
Our injury prevention plan went great for the most part. We had zero pitchers and only two batters spend time on the IL, and one of those batters was a 34-year-old. Unfortunately, one of the batters to miss extended time was the one guy I could least afford to lose. Luis Godoy sprained his thumb in early September and was out through the first round of the playoffs. What luck.
Startzel started at RF in place of Godoy to start the playoffs, and Hudson moved up to the number three spot in the lineup. I’m not crazy about either of these options, but it’s the best we’ve got. We went with a playoff rotation of MacDonald, Palacios, Dibartolo, and Schaffer, and moved Sheppard and Kelsey to the bullpen. Justus and Bacon were left off the playoff roster.
Our first-round matchup was against the 90-72 Rockies. Their only real player of note was Steve Delaney, but he looks like the kind of guy that can swing a series. Then their offense was balanced and deep, with most players having 55+ home run power. We have more talent, but anything can happen at Coors..
Divisional Series Game 1, Slammers Win 4-2 – We started off strong in game one, getting a combined 15 Ks over nine innings from MacDonald, Noonan, and Alcorn. Then Flakes led the way on offense with 3 RBIs. The game was tied most of the way until his go ahead single in the bottom of the eighth.
Divisional Series Game 2, Slammers Win 9-2 – The pitching staff put together another great outing in game two, with Palacios, Alcorn, and Sheppard combining for 15 Ks over nine innings. Flakes led the way on offense with another 3 RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 3, Slammers Win 5-2 – I was worried their offense would come to life at Coors but we were able to keep them at bay and win our third straight game. This time it was Dibartolo, Noonan, and McKinney combining for a dominant pitching performance, with 13 Ks over nine innings. Everyone chipped in on offense to produce five runs.
Divisional Series Game 4, Rockies Win 8-7 (12) – I knew it was bound to happen at some point and it finally did – the Rockies offense came to life. Alcorn and McKinney both blew save opportunities and Ibarra gave up a walk-off homer in the bottom of the twelfth. Flakes continued his hot series with another 4 RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 5, Rockies Win 5-1 – The Rockies continued their offensive surge, taking MacDonald deep three times in four innings. Then Delaney gave them six innings of one run ball. The Rockies have momentum but we’re heading back home with the Cy Young winner scheduled to start game six. I think we’ll be fine.
Divisional Series Game 6, Slammers Win 8-2 – Palacios gave up a two-run shot in the first, then him, Ryan, and Kelsey combined for 13 Ks and 0 ER the rest of the way. Flakes was hot again, launching two three-run homers.
I was worried our offense would stall out without Godoy, but Flakes put the team on his back, winning series MVP behind his 5 home runs and 17 RBIs. We held serve at home and stole one on the road, with our pitching dominating in each of the wins. Godoy is set to return for game one of the NLCS, so I like our odds the rest of the way.
Our next opponent is the 100-62 Nationals. They have the second-best record in baseball and a very talented team. Their offense is led by MVP Doug Bridges and future hall of famer Juan Soto, and the pitching staff features stud starters Clay McAuley and Fabricio Tertlio. This looks like the de facto title series.
NLCS Game 1, Slammers Win 7-3 – Godoy made up for lost time in game one, going 3-5 with two homers and 4 RBIs. Then the pitching was solid with great performances from the usual suspects. Dibartolo, Noonan, and Alcorn combined for 11 Ks and 3 ERs over nine innings.
NLCS Game 2, Slammers Win 3-1 – Schaffer pitched a gem, giving us seven innings and only allowing one run. Then McKinney came in and closed it down with a two inning save. Godoy hit another homer, while Romo and Hines both had run scoring singles.
NLCS Game 3, Slammers Win 3-2 (14) – Whew, what a game. MacDonald and McAuley both went 6.1 innings and gave up two runs, with the last of those coming in the bottom of the seventh. Then no one scored again until the top of the fourteenth when Sanchez hit a go-ahead solo homer. Noonan, Alcorn, McKinney, and Ibarra combined for 7.2 scoreless innings in relief and Godoy hit another two-run homer.
NLCS Game 4, Slammers Win 7-2 – This one was over early. We knocked out their starter in the first and cruised the rest of the way. Palacios and Sheppard combined for 9 innings and 2 ERs, and everyone chipped in on offense.
We made a huge statement with this series. The Nationals thought they were on the same level as us, but we eviscerated them. Godoy won series MVP with his four home runs and eight RBIs.
Up next is the 93-69 Red Sox, led by veteran starting pitcher Nate Pearson. They have a deep and balanced team, but nothing that should give us too many issues. We made a key trade with them last year that netted us Alcorn and Ibarra, while sending out Chang-Hyeok Kim. I bet they wish they could undo that one.
World Series Game 1, Slammers Win 3-2 – Game one was a pitching duel between Pearson and Dibartolo, with Dibartolo coming out on top. Dibartolo, Noonan, and Alcorn combined for 14 Ks and 2 ERs over nine innings. Hopper hit a two-run home run and Godoy continued his hot streak with another solo shot.
World Series Game 2, Slammers Win 6-2 – The pitching came through again with Schaffer, McKinney, and Ruhs combing for 10 Ks and 2 ERs in nine innings. Things are looking good after two games.
World Series Game 3, Red Sox Win 10-8 – Some people say a series doesn’t start until the road team wins a game, so maybe we’re still waiting for this one to kick off. The Red Sox roughed up our pitchers and we lost a shootout late.
World Series Game 4, Slammers Win 7-2 – The pitching got back on track in game four with Palacios and Ryan teaming up to allow 2 ERs over nine innings. Flakes had four hits and Bernal drove in three runs.
World Series Game 5, Red Sox Win 7-5 – Godoy had a huge game, going 3-3 with 2 home runs, a triple, 2 walks, 4 RBIs, and 2 runs scored, but it wasn’t enough for the victory. The Red Sox got to Dibartolo early and we could never climb back. We’re heading back home and looking to close out the series in game six.
World Series Game 6, Slammers Win 11-4 – We scored early and often and took game six in convincing fashion. Godoy provided another 3 RBIs and Schaffer did enough to win. Noonan and Kelsey closed out the last three innings.
After five long years we’re World Series champs once again! Godoy had another huge series and won World Series MVP, capping off an amazing postseason run (seriously, check this out).
This wasn’t as action packed as our 2027 title run, but I enjoyed it just as much. It was very satisfying watching our pitching and defense squeeze the life out of teams. We had a team ERA of 3.32 over 16 games, which is pretty impressive considering we were playing the best teams in the league. The starters were all excellent and the bullpen was lights out. I bet other teams got tired of seeing “Slammers SP – 6.2 IP, 2 ER; Slammers RP 1 – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, Slammers RP 2 – 1 IP 0 ER.” It was like clockwork.
Noonan, Alcorn, and McKinney were particularly impressive. Noonan had an FIP of 0.62 in seven appearances and struck out 23 of the 43 batters he faced. McKinney had an FIP of 0.95 in 9.2 innings and only allowed 6 baserunners. Then Alcorn allowed zero runs in five of his seven appearances. I don’t think I would swap these guys for any other relievers in the league.
From everything I’ve written above, it’s pretty obvious that we won this championship with pitching and defense, so I think it’s worth mentioning Vega’s contract again. $50m for 4.6 WAR is terrible value but it’s not always about that. It’s about getting the right players for your team, regardless of how valuable their contracts are. It’s really easy to get caught up in trying to win the $/WAR game, but they don’t give out championships for that – they only give out World Series titles.
Here are the rest of the playoff results and MLB standings.
Also, I usually don’t mention minor league records since I don’t think they’re overly important, but we had all of our minor league teams finish with a winning record this season. Good job everyone!
Top Prospects:
We’ve turned in to a starting pitching factory. I can’t get guys to free agency quick enough to make room for the new guys coming up. This is a good problem to have, but I wish I could do as well with developing batters. It just seems so much harder to identify top position players outside of the top ten in the draft, and I can’t develop them as well either. Either way though, the farm is in great shape and should continue to be for years to come.
1.) Eddie Copping
Copping might not have the highest upside on the list but he’s the safest bet to make the majors. He had a great year in AA, winning pitcher of the year, and his ratings are pretty much major league ready. He’ll probably start next year at AAA since I have a logjam of starting pitchers.
2.) Chris Dearborn
Dearborn has great character, durability, and ratings across the board. He had a good year in A- and will contend for Cy Young awards one day if he reaches his full potential.
3.) Alex Rivera
Rivera’s offensive potential has regressed since last year, but his defensive ratings improved. He struggled in A, so will repeat the level next year. Hopefully, I didn’t cause any permanent damage to his development by promoting him too early.
4.) Jose Gutierrez
Gutierrez had a monster year in rookie ball and saw his ratings progress nicely since last season. If his catcher ability can make it to 65-70, he’ll be my starting catcher one day.
5.) Chris Brown
Brown was my first-round selection in this year’s draft. He has below average stamina and hold runners, but all of his other potential ratings are elite. He performed well in rookie ball, but I might give him another year there to improve his control.
6.) Chris Larkin
Larkin continued his steady ascent through the system, posting a good year in A+ and seeing his ratings improve since last season. He’ll start next year in AA and should be ready for the majors sooner than later.
7.) Edwin Mireles
Mireles had a solid year in A+ but missed a lot of time to injury. He’ll start next season in AA, but I won’t hesitate to trade him if the right deal comes along.
Here are his ratings from last season.
8.) Bobby Butler
I still don’t trust Butler and his normal injury proneness, but his talent is undeniable. His ratings have improved across the board since last season and he looks ready for promotion to AA. Like Mireles, I’ll trade him if the right deal comes along.
9.) Luis Arguello
If you’ve been paying close attention, you might’ve noticed Arguello is the fourth starting pitcher in the top nine from the 2030 draft. He doesn’t have the same upside as the other guys but he’s a pretty safe bet to be a back of the rotation starter, and if his movement improves, he could be elite. He’ll start next season at A+.
10.) Josh McBride
McBride’s skills have rounded out since last year and he looks ready for the majors. I doubt he’ll ever be a star, but there’s definitely value in a guy that can competently play eight positions.
Honorable mentions:
Joe Poffenberger
Poffenberger looks like the real deal but I’m always skeptical of guys with normal injury proneness and no positive character attributes. He’ll start next season at A, and we’ll find out more about him there.
Omar Taborda
I would’ve been foaming at the mouth to get Taborda in the starting lineup a few years ago but Vega and Sanchez have the middle infield on lock for the next several seasons. He might replace Monzon as the utility infielder next year, but it probably makes more sense to trade him while his value is highest.
Steve Flores
Flores made the list two years ago due to a lack of better options, but I think he’s a legitimate prospect now. He might not ever bat his weight, but he could be one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all time. I’m hoping his high character allows his offensive skills to improve the next few years.
Ray Zaragoza
I had every intention of trading Zaragoza after his season ending injury last year but there really wasn’t much interest in him. Unfortunately, he suffered another season ending injury in his first game back this year, so I doubt there will be any more interest in him now. I think I’m going to force start him as a reliever so he has a chance to make the majors in some capacity.
Promoted to MLB:
Andy Schaffer
Dropped from list:
Josh Boston
So, a low character guy is fizzling out, guess I shouldn’t be too surprised. Here are his ratings from last year.
Future Outlook:
We’re in amazing position going forward. We just won the World Series, have the top four Cy Young award vote getters, have the ability to bring back everyone, and could probably even bring in another MVP caliber player. Then for good measure, we also have a great farm system. The rest of division is looking up in awe.
So, where do we go from here? It’s really fun racking up championships but it can get kind of boring after a while. I know I don’t have enough titles to be complaining about boredom yet, but we look like we’re trending in that direction. I’m thinking about making some league wide adjustments to shake things up. Here are the changes I’m considering this offseason:
1.) Re-align the Divisions
I loved the rivalry with the Braves when I first started the franchise, but we’ve kind of got our foot on their necks at the moment, and I don’t see them getting back up anytime soon. We’ve established such a strong position in the division it’s almost impossible for them to make the playoffs, and with every passing year their fan interest/loyalty gets worse and the gap between us and them only grows larger. The Cardinals are in a similar situation, and the Marlins might as well be a minor league team.
I’m thinking about re-aligning the divisions based on winning percentages from the last twelve years, putting the top four teams in one division, the next four teams in another, and so on. This would give teams like the Marlins a chance to make the playoffs and make it where teams like ours can’t put a long-term strangle hold on a division. I could re-align every ten years or so to make sure no one gets too strong of a position.
2.) Expand the Playoffs
This is the simplest change I could make but the one I like least. We currently have 32 teams in the league and eight of them make the playoffs, so it really feels like an accomplishment to make it and the playoff bracket sets up perfectly. If we added two wildcards to each division, we’d need to give two teams in each conference a bye, which isn’t somethings I’m crazy about doing. Then if we added four wildcards, or let the top two from each division qualify, it would really diminish the regular season. I seriously doubt I go this route.
3.) Eliminate Divisions
This is an appealing option, but I’ve had issues with it in the past. Basically, it becomes too easy to make the playoffs because you don’t have to worry about a juggernaut appearing in your division. If there’s a 110-win team in the league, who cares, you’ll still make the playoffs with 100 wins, so you can really let off the gas during the regular season. I might give it another try though.
4.) Expand the League
This is mostly a temporary solution, but it could make things more difficult in the short term. I have way too many players to protect in an expansion draft, so would definitely lose some depth. I might do this along with re-alignment, but it’s not a permanent balancing solution.
5.) Add Promotion and Relegation
I think this is the best route to giving everyone a chance at winning but it would require some pretty radical changes to the league. Here are some of the things I would have to figure out: Who starts out in the lower league? Do I introduce expansion teams at the same time? How many teams make the playoffs? How many teams are promoted/relegated each year? How do I do the financials? Then there are probably another thirty things I haven’t thought of yet. This is probably what I should do, but I don’t know if I’m ready to make that leap yet.
Here is the budget and salaries heading into the offseason.

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Now that we have passed the opt-out deadline and are only about three weeks away from the Chiefs and Texans kicking off the 2020 NFL season, I wanted to put together my pre-season power rankings and put all 32 teams in separate tiers, to give you an idea of where I see them at this point.
When putting together this list, I considered the talent on the roster, coaching staff and what will be a more important factor coming into this season than it has been in previous – the continuity as a franchise, since the COVID situation has limited the amount of preparation and ability to build chemistry as a team. That will be especially tough for new head coaches and inexperienced teams.
With that being said, this is how I would group them:
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Super Bowl contenders:

This group of four represents what I think are the four elite teams in the NFL. They all feature complete rosters, excellent coaching and continuity as a franchise. I think these are the franchises that will most likely square up against each other in the conference championship games on either side of the bracket.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs
We have heard this many times over the course of the offseason – the reigning Super Bowl champs bring back 20 of 22 starters (actually 19 now) on offense and defense combined. They have the best player in the league, the most dangerous receiving corp, above-average O-line play and a still improving defense, that just added some much-needed speed at the second level, which will allow DC Steve Spagnuolo to even more versatile. So at this point I can not have anybody unseat them. I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) will be a star in that offense, they get a couple of guys back that missed their playoff run and there are plenty of young, developing players on that roster. What general manager Brett Veach has done this offseason in terms of securing Patrick Mahomes for the next decade and still opening up cap room to also sign their best defensive player in Chris Jones is amazing to me. My only two concerns for Kansas City at this point are a lack of depth in the secondary and the fact they will have to go on the road when they face the four best teams on their schedule – Baltimore, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, which has me favoring the second team on my list for the number one seed in the AFC and which this year means having one more game in the playoffs on their road to another Super Bowl for Andy Reid’s troops.
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2. Baltimore Ravens
Right behind the Chiefs, as the biggest competitor for the AFC is Baltimore. They were the best team in the regular season from this past year, but the Titans handed them only their third loss of the season in the Divisional Round at home. While they did lose what to me is a first-ballot Hall of Fame guard in Marshal Yanda, outside of that the Ravens to me have an even better roster. The reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is only entering his third season in the league, the Ravens just added a top prospect in J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) to a backfield that set a league-record in rushing yards and some of these young receivers will continue to develop. On defense, they addressed the two areas that needed some help, when they brought in Calais Campbell to boost their pass-rush and two top-six linebackers on my board in the draft (Patrick Queen & Malik Harrison). They may not have as many superstar names as some other teams, but without a full offseason to prepare for it, that Greg Roman offense could be even tougher to stop if Marquise Brown becomes a more dependable deep threat (now fully healthy) and I love how multiple Wink Martindale is with his defense, combining the different pressure looks to go along with more versatile pieces up front and one of the elite secondaries in the game. You combine that with a rising young special teams coordinator in Chris Horton and a great motivator and in-game decision-maker in John Harbaugh – I just can’t find a lot of L’s on their schedule.
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3. San Francisco 49ers
Obviously the Super Bowl hangover will be brought up a lot of times with the loser of that contest, but unlike a lot of these teams coming off the big game – yet similar to the actual winners in the Chiefs – John Lynch did a great job re-tooling for the few losses they did have and didn’t overspend on some of their talented guys. Kyle Shanahan to me is the best offensive play-caller and game-designer in football, with a diverse rushing attack and the type of personnel to match it, while Jimmy G, despite some issues, is coming off his first 16-game season in his career. Defensively, they are losing what I thought was their best player in DeForest Buckner, but they did replace him with a top ten prospect in Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina) and Fred Warner is an emerging superstar. Their Seattle-based scheme under Robert Salah may not be very complex, but the Niners have a ferocious pass-rush, fast-flowing linebackers and a great safety tandem to be very sound in their execution. The Deebo Samuel injury is definitely a concern for me and if he doesn’t get back a few weeks into the season, I might drop San Fran a spot or two, plus I don’t love what they have at that second cornerback spot, but as for now I see the recipe that made me predict them winning the NFC West ahead of 2019 and what allowed them to be up double-digits in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl.
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4. New Orleans Saints
One of the themes this offseason for me has been how loaded this Saints roster is and that they just need to win this year. This is the final season with Drew Brees at the helm, they are already in a horrible place with the cap – before that even goes down in 2021 – and to be honest, a lot of their key contributors are getting pretty old now. While I have seen a significant drop-off in the arm-strength of Brees, other than that I don’t see any offense with this Sean Payton-led offense – the front-five is elite, Alvin Kamara should be back to 100 percent as a dynamic dual-threat back and they finally found a number two receiver in Emmanuel Sanders. When healthy, that defensive line is a dominant unit, I think third-round pick Zack Baun (Wisconsin) gives that linebacker group some versatility and they have a lot of experience in the secondary, including a guy I thought would be a future star on the outside in Marshon Lattimore. Before anything else, they need to take care of divisional-rival Tampa Bay – which is a very tough challenge already – but if they can do that, they are fairly in the hunt for the NFC’s top seed. There’s a lot of pressure on this group because of the cap situation, their all-time great QB having his “Last Dance” and brutal playoff losses in recent years, but they have all it takes to finally break through all the way.
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Playoff contenders:

This second tier consists of eight teams that to me have only or two holes on their roster, while their coaching gives them an advantage over the majority of teams in the league and they bring back most of their pieces from a year or at least improved in those areas. I expect all but one of these squads to make the playoffs in 2020, as long as they don’t suffer significant injuries along the way.
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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Number five in the entire league seems pretty high for a team that finished below .500 last season, but this is not just about Tom Brady coming in, but rather the roster Tampa Bay has built around him. To me Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the top receiver duo in the league, the Bucs arguably have the best tight-end room in the league and the offensive line only got better with superhuman Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) playing one of those spots on the right side. I have talked about this a lot over the offseason, looking at the match between Bruce Arians’ vertical-based passing attack and what Brady is used to, in terms of spreading the field and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. My bet is they go to a bit of hybrid and figure things out. Maybe more importantly, I don’t think people realize what they have put together on defense. Last season the Bucs finished number one against the run, they forced the fifth-most turnovers (28) and tied for sixth with yards per play (5.1) in the league. Todd Bowles is excellent defensive mind, who now enters his second season with as much talent as he has had since his Arizona days. Jameis turned it over 35 times last year (12 more than any other player in the league), while Tom didn’t even crack double-digits once again, and he immediately improves their situational football awareness and overall execution. This is a very dangerous squad.
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6. Dallas Cowboys
When you talk about some of the most talented rosters in the league, the Dallas Cowboys come to mind right away – especially on the offensive side of the ball. Dak Prescott now has one of the premiere receiver trios with the selection of Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma) in the draft, still probably a top-five offensive line and Zeke looking to re-establish himself as a top-tier back, after looking a step slow for most of last season. Defensively they are getting back Leighton Vander Esch, whose energy they desperately missed for stretches last season, and they have a very deep rotation at the defensive line (even though nobody knows what we’ll get from a couple of guys that were out of the league), while Mike Nolan will change things up a little more and get his guys into the face of opposing receivers. We have yet to see how much Mike McCarthy will want to have say in the offensive play-calling, but I like that they retained a young and creative OC in Kellen Moore, and as far as in-game control and CEO duties go, I certainly believe McCarthy is an upgrade. There are some questions with the secondary after the loss of Byron Jones and losing Travis Frederick to retirement hurts, but I think those are things that can be overcome. Something that I think should not be overlooked is the signing of former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein and his special teams coordinator John Fassel, after converting only 75 percent of their field goal attempts last season (6th-lowest in the league) and missing a couple of crucial kicks.
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7. Philadelphia Eagles
Right behind the Cowboys, I have their division rivals from Philadelphia. I think the Eagles actually have a better quarterback, the best defensive player among the two teams in Fletcher Cox and a more experienced secondary. However, with Brandon Brooks out for the season and maybe the worst group of linebackers in the NFL, I could not put this group ahead of Dallas, even though they have come up victorious against them in the big games recently. Last year Carson Wentz carried a group of skill-position players from the practice squad and a banged-up O-line to a division title. This upcoming season he will go from already wasn’t an overly dynamic receiving crew to a group of track stars, most notably with first-round pick Jalen Reagor (TCU) and a hopefully healthy DeSean Jackson, plus Miles Sanders I think is ready to emerge as a star back for Philly. The defense did lose some long-time stalwarts like Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham, but I loved the addition of Javon Hargreave in the middle to free up the other guys to attack upfield and with Darius Slay as their new CB1, not only does that move everybody one spot lower on the depth chart, but it also finally makes more sense for Jim Schwartz to be as aggressive with those zero-blitzes, since he has the guys to cover. Those two newcomers also fit perfectly when matching up against Dallas, because of an improvement interior run defense and having a guy who can match up with Amari Cooper, after the other guys got toasted for the most part.
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8. Buffalo Bills
For the first time in about twenty years, a team not named the Patriots will enter a season as favorites in the AFC East – and it’s actually not that close for me. Buffalo made a switch last season offensively to more 11 personnel and quick-tempo with Brian Daboll moving to the booth. This offseason they finally got the big-armed Josh Allen a dependable deep threat in Stefon Diggs, who averaged 12.0 yards per target last season (second-highest in the league), which – similar to what I just talked about with the corners in Philadelphia – moves everybody else down one spot in the food chain. And I love what they do defensively, with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s game-plan specific zone pattern coverages, with a versatile secondary to execute those, to go with a deep D-line and two super-rangy linebackers. Even outside the Diggs trade, Buffalo has made some sneaky-good deals since losing that Wildcard game at Houston in such heart-breaking fashion. Whether that is Mario Addison as double-digit sack guy in four straight years, added depth on the O-line or a really solid draft class to complement what they already had. I don’t want to crown them at this point, but to me they are the favorites for the AFC’s number three seed as for right now, since I think the South doesn’t have that clear front-runner to win the majority of their divisional games.
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9. Seattle Seahawks
I would have probably had the Hawks as the final team of this group or right at the top of the next one a couple of weeks ago, but after acquiring Jamal Adams, I think they have re-established themselves as that second team in the NFC West, since I had them very close with Arizona originally, I did not love what they did in the first two days of the draft (somewhat of a trend with them), they lost their second-best defensive player at that point in Jadeveon Clowney, I’m not sure if they upgraded on the offensive line and we don’t even if know if Quinton Dunbar will be suspended at this point. With that being said, Seattle has finished above .500 every single year with Russell Wilson under center and while I’m not a fan of their conservative approach offensively, where they don’t allow Russ to throw the ball on first downs and push the tempo a little at times, they are one of the most effective rushing teams and they have two lethal weapons to catch those trademark rainbow balls from the Seahawks QB. Defensively there are still some questions about the edge rush and at second corner spot, but Pete Carroll at least has what he wants most in a team at those positions – competition – and you already saw them go to more two-high looks in coverage than we are used to, telling me they utilize Jamal’s versatile skill-set more than what that strong safety mostly does in that system.
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10. Green Bay Packers
The whole Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love drama has been looming large over the offseason and that has brought us some interesting discussions, but let’s not allow this to take away from the fact Green Bay just had a first-round bye in the playoffs and made it to the NFC title game. While they were 8-1 in one-score games and should regress more towards the mean in terms of the success rate in those close games, the North is still wide open and they have a few things going for themselves – they have the best quarterback in the division, the best offensive line, the most versatile and effective pass rush and a lot of young talent in the secondary. The first-round selection of a future signal-caller aside, I wasn’t too fond of what they did in the draft. Even though I liked Cincinnati’s Josiah Deguara and can see what they want to do with him as H-back/move guy in this offense, I thought they did not get Aaron Rodgers help in the receiving corp, which has no proven commodity outside of Davante Adams. Their defense got absolutely steamrolled in two games against the eventual conference champion 49ers, but I hope to see Rashan Gary develop in his second season and I think Christian Kirksey was a very under-the-radar signing as a run-stopping linebacker. I think schematically with Matt LaFleur’s offense based on what they did under Sean McVay and Mike Pettine being very creative himself they are one of the better coaching staffs in the NFC, but I would like to see them open up the offense more for Rodgers and break tendencies more often with their coverage calls.
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11. Pittsburgh Steelers
Another very dangerous squad for me is the Steelers. I have talked many times about how bad the Steelers quarterback situations was last season, as both Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges finished near the bottom in air yards per attempt, percentage of throws beyond the marker and many others. We have only seen Big Ben throw in some short clips on the internet, but if he is just 70-80 percent of what he was in 2018, this team is bound for a playoff berth. There are some question marks with this group of skill-position players, but I expect Juju to bounce back in a major way with a capable QB and being healthy himself, I have already picked Diontae Johnson as a breakout candidate for this season and I like the diversity of this group of backs. Pittsburgh’s defense was already elite last year, finishing top five in both yards and points allowed, tied for first in yards per play (4.7), the most takeaways (38) and sacks (54). If former Raven Chris Wormley can replace Javon Hargreave as a two-down run-stopper at least and rookie Antoine Brooks Jr. (Maryland) can fill a very specific role as their second sub-package linebacker in place of Mark Barron, I think they will one of the scariest units in the NFL once again. So the best all-around defense for my money and an offense who I would say has top ten potential at the very least is a tough match-up. Maybe not quite battling with the Ravens for the North, but the top Wildcard spot for sure.
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12. Indianapolis Colts
If there is one team in the AFC that could go from finishing sub-.500 to making it all the way to the conference championship game, the Colts would be my pick. I thought Philip Rivers had a really rough 2019 campaign, in which his arm looked rather weak and his decision-making hurt the Chargers on multiple occasions, but he will play behind by far the best offensive line he has ever had and they will run the heck out of the ball. Indy already had a pretty good back in Marlon Mack, but Wisconsin superstar Jonathan Taylor, who they selected in the second round, will be one of the front-runners for Offensive Rookie of the Year if given the chances in combination with what I believe is the best front-five in the entire league, plus their other second-rounder Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) will be that Vincent Jackson/Mike Williams type target for Rivers. More importantly, with the trade for a top 50 player in the league in DeForest Buckner, this entire Colts D immediately takes a step forward, since he is a perfect fit as that 3-technique in their front and help them disrupt plays at a much higher rate, to go with range in zone coverage behind that, including the “Maniac” Darius Leonard chasing people down. I’m a big fan of Frank Reich and the coaching staff he is has put together, in terms of in-game decision-making, offensive gameplans and just the intensity his team plays him.
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Fringe playoff teams:

This middle tier is made up from all those teams who I expect to be at .500 or above, firmly in contention for a Wildcard spot at least. They can be some areas of concern, but overall they have the roster ready to compete with the big dogs and/or feature above-average coaching. With a couple of these there is a change at quarterback and head coach respectively, but they have enough around those to overcome that.
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13. Tennessee Titans
This definitely seems a little low for a team that is coming off an AFC Championship game appearance, but people seem to forget the Titans were 8-7 ahead of week 17 and if it wasn’t for the Steelers losing their final three games, this group wouldn’t have even been in position to lock down the six seed. Things were also made a lot easier by their division rival Texans, who sat most of their starters after beating Tennessee two weeks prior. So as impressive as their playoff run was, you have to think of what happened before that and put it into perspective a little. With one more playoff spot in each conference, their chances of making it to the tournament should be at least equally as good, but I believe the Colts are the favorites to win the South and for me the Steelers are the favorites for the fifth seed. With all that being said, there is plenty to like about this team still – they can pound you with the Derrick Henry and the run game, Ryan Tannehill at least gives them the threat of pulling the ball and going deep off play-action, they have some young weapons catching the ball and defensively they are very versatile in how they set up gameplans. I also like the mind-set Mike Vrabel installs in these guys and I was impressed with what OC Arthur Smith did in 2019. If there are two spots that could decide if this group is fighting for a division title or that final playoff berth, it will be their rookie right tackle Isaiah Wilson (Georgia) and recently signed edge rusher Vic Beasley.
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14. Cleveland Browns
While I don’t see them competing for the AFC North – just because of how loaded the Ravens are – the Browns are pretty clearly the most talented team that is considered to be third in their division. In terms of their group of starting skill-position players at least, they are near the top of the NFL, the O-line to me already just made my top ten ranking with room to move up, if healthy they are at least in the conversation for that with the D-line as well, with a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Myles Garrett, and I like how they have assembled their secondary. Now, they have some unproven guys at the linebacker level and Cleveland’s potential is largely dependent on which Baker Mayfield we will get. With Kevin Stefanski coming and installing an offense that will be built on the zone run game and bootlegs off that, where his quarterback is put on the move, I could see much more efficient play and more comfort in that system. Something that really jumped out to me on tape was how many times Baker seemed to not be “on the same page” with his receivers, expecting routes to break off differently and unfortunate drops in certain situations. Even though the preparation for the season does look a lot different and QB & WRs haven’t been able to spend too much time together, I expect this to improve and more suitable roles for those pass-catchers overall. And if they are ahead in more games, that pass rush will be a problem.
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15. Arizona Cardinals
There are certainly still some issues here, but the Cardinals are probably the most exciting young team in all of the NFL. Kyler Murray was a one-man show last season and is due for a big jump, with DeAndre Hopkins being added to a receiving corp that severely lacked dependable weapons, to go with some other youngsters fully healthy, Kenyan Drake looked like a different player once he came over from Miami and the O-line should at least be marginally better. Defensively they transitioned a little up front, with big gap-pluggers on the line and Isaiah Simmons being that ultra-rangy player on the second level, who can run guys down on the edges, if those ball-carriers forced to bounce outside, plus they have maybe the most underappreciated edge rusher over the last four years in Chandler Jones. I don’t think they are very deep in the secondary, but Budda Baker is an absolute baller, Jalen Thompson emerged late last season and I already predicted Byron Murphy would have a breakout second season. With Kliff Kingsbury and Vance Joseph, Arizona has creative play-calling on both sides of the ball and they now have the personnel to execute at the needed level as well. Like I mentioned, I was ready to have the Cardinals at least go toe-to-toe with Seattle for a playoff spot, but the addition of Jamal Adams has shifted the balance again to some degree. And if you just go based off my rankings, two NFC Wildcard spots already go to teams from five to seven.
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16. Denver Broncos
A team that has been getting a lot of love this offseason is the Broncos. They have pretty much all the pieces that you usually see with those rising squads – a promising second-year quarterback with a lot of weapons surrounding him, a ferocious defensive front and having shown signs late last season. My belief in them has taken a bit of a dump unfortunately since I thought they did well to improve the offensive line, with Garrett Bolles on the left end being the only weak-spot, but now that Ja’Wuan James won’t be available at right tackle for the second straight year (injury last season and now opting out), their duo of OTs is a concern for me. Defensively you have to love what they have in the front seven, with Von Miller and now again Bradley Chubb coming off the edges, Jurrell Casey added to the interior to go with Shelby Harris and Alexander Johnson being an under-the-radar standout at linebacker. I’ve always been a big fan of Justin Simmons, but that second corner spot is still up in the air. I like Vic Fangio and that coaching staff they have put together in Denver, with Pat Shurmur providing a QB-friendly offense, the game’s best O-line coach in Mike Munchak and most of the people that have helped Fangio put out elite defenses at multiple stops before. So the Broncos are still the most dangerous opponent of the Chiefs in the AFC West, but now I’m not sure if they can add some drama over the fourth quarter of the season.
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17. Minnesota Vikings
At the same time, a team that has been a little overhyped to me this offseason is Minnesota. While I don’t love how the Packers have operated since February, what have the Vikings done to really improve? They traded away the best deep threat in the league last season in Stefon Diggs, stalwarts on the D-line in Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph are now gone, their entire group of corners has combined for less than 1500 career snaps and their offensive coordinator is now in Cleveland. I’m intrigued by the combination of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, who could be pretty interchangeable in their roles and I like their 12 and 21 personnel groupings, but they lack depth at the receiver position. And the defense will be relying on several inexperienced pieces to step in. I mean their three starting corners from last year are off the team now. So I don’t really get how most people all of a sudden put them ahead of the Packers. With that being said, I like the offensive scheme and always thought Gary Kubiak was a huge factor in their success on the ground at least. On defense there are certainly question marks – especially in the secondary – but Minnesota could easily have a top five player at their respective position at all three levels, with Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Harris, plus they still have some promising young guys like Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Hughes and a deep rookie class. Their only true shade nose Michael Pierce opting out hurts though.
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18. New England Patriots
This offseason must have been a rollercoaster for Patriots fans. First, Tom Brady leaves and everybody goes crazy. Then people start getting onto the Jarrett Stidham hype train and talk about how good the rest of this team still is. Out of nowhere they sign Cam Newton for the veteran minimum basically and they are back in the conversation for the top teams in the AFC all of sudden. And now, they lead the league in players opting out of the season, with key defensive pieces like Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung, to go with a couple of role players on offense at least. So now they are right at the bottom of these fringe playoff teams for me, because purely based on the roster, they are not even in the top 20 league-wide, but they still have maybe the greatest defensive mind in NFL history in Bill Belichick and one of the best offensive play-callers right now in Josh McDaniels. Obviously a lot of this will come down to what version of Cam Newton we will get and even if he is and can stay totally healthy. Not only is New England the most adaptable team in terms of how they can adjust to personnel and how flexible they are with their game-plans, but Cam is a great fit in that offense, where he can spread the field and make decisions based on defenses adjusting. The one area that took the biggest bump – outside of quarterback I’m guessing – is the offensive line, because they lost a legendary position coach in Dante Scarnecchia and their probable starter at right tackle in Marcus Cannon. While the Pats do have some young players, who can replace part of the losses, they were already more in plan for the pieces that left before there was any virus outbreak.
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Around .500:

This broad group of seven teams represents all those franchises who will be dancing around .500 mark in the win-loss column. A couple of teams have the potential to win nine or ten games, while others could see those numbers on the wrong side of the column as well. There are obvious question marks in certain areas, even though they might feature top-tier players and/or coaches.
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19. Houston Texans
It’s kind of tough to put a team here that has won its division the last two years, but I think the Texans are pretty clearly number three in the South now. I love Deshaun Watson and I think he has fairly established himself as a top five quarterback in the NFL, but Bill O’Brien just took away an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and replaced him with an injury-prone Brandin Cooks to go with another always banged up Will Fuller and a declining Randall Cobb, to go with a David Johnson in the backfield, who was unrecognizable last season. I think the O-line is improving, but outside of Laremy Tunsil maybe, they don’t have anybody other than Deshaun who is clearly above-average in their role. And defensively they finished in the bottom five in yards allowed and tied with Cincinnati (who picked first overall in the draft) for an NFL-high 6.1 yards allowed per play. Hopefully having J.J. Watt back for a full season should help, I like the selection of Ross Blacklock (TCU) on the inside and there are some talented young corners on this roster, who could be better much in 2020. I would not be surprised if they are that .500 team at heart and their quarterback carried them to a couple of wins that they weren’t supposed to get – which we have seen him do many times before – but it’s more likely to me that they are fighting for one of the two bottom Wildcard spots.
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20. Atlanta Falcons
Very rarely do you have a team that was among the worst over the first half of the season and among the best over the second half. The Falcons started out 2019 with a 1-7 record, but would go on to win six of the final eight games. Their defense was absolutely atrocious early on last season, with no pass-rush impacting the opposing quarterback and several miscues in coverage. With Raheem Morris taking over the defensive play-calling, they showed a lot of improvement already and there are signs that trend will continue. While there are some questions about the back-end and if they can get consistent production from their rush outside the top two guys, I think Dante Fowler is an upgrade over Vic Beasley, I like Marlon Davidson (Auburn) as a guy with inside-out flexibility on sub-packages and Keanu Neal is back healthy, as that Kam Chancellor-type, who can be that extra defender in the box in their system and punish receivers when catching the ball over the middle or in the flats. Offensively I believe this is still a team that can move the ball – they just have to start doing so earlier in games. While the top NFL receiver duo is in their own division with the guys in Tampa Bay, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could easily be that next one. They lost a very productive tight-end in Austin Hooper, but I believe Hayden Hurst can replace at least 80 percent of that production, and while we have no idea what we get from Todd Gurley and his knees at this point, last year the Falcons had one of the least effective per-touch backs in Devonta Freeman. Plus, the O-line should take a step forward with former first-round pick Chris Lindstrom returning from injury.
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21. Las Vegas Raiders
To me the Raiders are still in transition, not only moving to Las Vegas, but also in terms of roster construction and the culture Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock are trying to establish. Outside of Tyrell Williams, that entire group of receivers was overhauled, they have a lot of young pieces on the defensive line and the secondary, plus they will have at least two new starters on the second level of their defense. By far the biggest thing they have going for them is the offensive line and second-year back Josh Jacobs running behind it. When I did my top ten offensive lines in the NFL a couple of weeks ago, I had the Silver & Black at number five, and Jacobs was already a top 100 player in the league for me, with how physical and elusive a runner as he is. I could easily see the Raiders finish near the top in terms of ground production, and I also like the young guys they brought in around that, with Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) keeping the defense honest with his speed, Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) as a physical receiver, who will get hands after the catch, and Lynn Bowden Jr. (Kentucky) as that chess-piece potentially, that you can use in a multitude of way. My bigger question here is if Derek Carr is willing to push the ball down the field. Defensively I like the rotation they have on the interior D-line and the two linebackers they brought in via free agency, most notably Corey Littleton. There are still some questions about how snaps will be split between their corner group, but I’m excited to see a full season of Jonathan Abram hopefully. These guys have some attitude and an energetic head coach.
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22. Los Angeles Rams
Oh, how far we have come. Just one-and-a-half years ago the Rams were officially 20 spots higher basically, when they lost the Super Bowl to New England. Ahead of last season, I predicted them to miss the playoffs and while they made a bit of a run at it late, that’s what ended up happening. Now I see them as the fourth team in their own division – even though that says more about the competition they face rather than them. I still believe in Sean McVay and his ability to win on paper with play-design and game-planning, but Jared Goff has turned out to be an average quarterback, they don’t have a prime Todd Gurley setting the table anymore and the offensive line had some major issues, for large stretches of last season, especially in the run game. I was very high on Cam Akers, who they selected in the second round out of Florida State, but he will obviously be a rookie with shortened preparation, rather than an Offensive Player of the Year like Gurley was for them. Defensively, they have two elite players in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and I like some of the other guys in their roles, but overall the high-end talent beyond the two biggest names isn’t overly impressive. Leonard Floyd might be their top edge rusher and he has always been more of a Robin, they have no proven commodity as stand-up linebacker and I have yet to see if Brandon Staley can actually be an upgrade over Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator.
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23. Detroit Lions
While I was going back and forth with putting the Lions third or fourth in the NFC North, I recently said they are among the top two teams that could go from worst to first in their division and I would not be surprised if they were in the hunt for a Wildcard spot in the last couple of weeks of the season. His second year in a system under Darrell Bevell – where he wasn’t just going in shotgun 40 times a game and asked to make magic happen – Matthew Stafford looked like an MVP candidate as long as he was healthy in 2019. That duo of Kerryon Johnson and my top-ranked running back in the draft D’Andre Swift (Georgia) could be one of the most dynamic ones in the league, the receiving corp is highly underrated and I like those rookies competing for the two guard spots. Defensively, they seem to finally look like what Matt Patricia wanted, when he came over from New England, in terms being versatile with their fronts and having guys who can take on receivers in man-coverage. With that being said, there is also a good chance that the Patricia experiment could go to shambles, if some of the veterans get turned off by his style of coaching without having established that winning culture, and this team has simply been dealing with too many injuries to key players. I don’t think there is much of a gap between the Lions and Vikings for example, but Detroit has not shown the stability of some other organizations.
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24. Chicago Bears
A franchise that I don’t really hear anybody talk about – unless it’s their quarterback competition – is that team from the Windy City. I understand that the Bears aren’t really sexy because they lack those superstars on offense that people will recognize, but I’m higher on some of the guys they do have on that side of the ball and on defense they could be much closer to 2018, when they led the league in points allowed and turnovers forced, rather than being just inside the top in most categories last season. A guy I already predicted to break out for Chicago this upcoming season with a bigger workload is running back David Montgomery, to go with Anthony Miller as a gadget player and developing young pass-catcher and one of the more underappreciated receivers out there in Allen Robinson. Defensively, I thought the biggest issue last season was Akiem Hicks missing double-digit games, as a table-setter with his ability to disrupt plays from the interior, and Leonard Floyd didn’t provide much on the opposite side of Khalil Mack, who they upgrade from with Robert Quinn, who just had his best season since the Rams were still in St. Louis. Now, I don’t love what they have at that second safety spot to complement Eddie Jackson, someone will have to fill that second corner spot – even though I’m a fan of second-round pick Jaylon Johnson (Utah) – and nose tackle Eddie Goldman opting out is a huge loss. If the quarterback position can just complement the rushing attack and the defense plays up to their potential, this group could be competing for second in the North, but Foles or Trubisky could still hold them back.
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https://preview.redd.it/aep6uj385di51.png?width=1060&format=png&auto=webp&s=07674898e4de7d73699c065907983e69612c56a4
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The final tier is in the comments!!
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/08/18/ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-in-tiers-pre-season/
You can also listen to my analysis on the Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zz7WE0epZw8

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 was another banner week for the rookie class. There were 4 rookie running backs that finished in the top 12 at the position, and 3 rookie receivers as well. Justin Jefferson, D’Andre Swift, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire had especially big days. For Jefferson, it was the second time he’s topped 160 yards this season, and Swift and CEH each set their season-high in rushing yards. CEH made an emphatic case to remain the lead back despite the signing of Le’Veon Bell. This week there aren’t as many automatic starters among the rookies, but there are plenty who could have big games in week 7. There are still plenty of byes and injuries to contend with, so you me be scouring the free agent pool a little deeper than usual, and there may be a rookie who can help. Keep in mind that any players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Let’s dive into what to expect…
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Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 7: vs. Jax.): Herbert has consistently produced since taking the starting job, reaching at least 260 yards passing each week. He’s also thrown for 7 touchdowns in the last two weeks, and this week faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and has allowed the 8th-most QB points per game (all point totals and rankings based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted). Herbert isn’t an auto-start in 1-QB leagues, but you should have 2 studs you’re playing instead if you’re sitting him in 2-QB formats. The Chargers don’t blow anyone out, so they shouldn’t get so far out in front that they stop throwing. Herbert should be a very safe bet for 250+ yards and at least 2 scores.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 7: @ ATL.): Swift finally had the breakout game people who drafted him have been waiting for, rushing for 116 yards and 2 scores in a blowout win over the Jaguars. He still only played 38% of the offensive snaps, but he made the most of his opportunities against a terrible Jacksonville defense. This week’s matchup Isn’t quite as juicy for Swift, but his receiving prowess should be a factor in this one. Atlanta has allowed the 2nd most receptions, 3rd most receiving yards, and the most receiving TDs to opposing running backs per game. They’ve coughed up the 15th-most RB points per game, so the receiving work is where a large portion of the scoring is coming from and Swift is the Detroit back best positioned to take advantage. There is some risk here since Detroit has been inconsistent with their running back usage, but I have faith that this matchup favors Swift, and that he’s going to finish as an RB2 or better in PPR and half-PPR formats.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 7: @ LAC): Robinson has consistently seen his weekly upside limited by the Jaguars’ overall futility, but that may be changing this week. Chris Thompson was added to the team’s COVID reserve list, meaning Robinson is likely the best back on the roster to be used in passing situations, and he’s already been the main back on early downs. Devine Ozigbo was activated from IR this week, but I would still expect Robinson to operate as a bellcow against the Chargers. The Chargers do rank 13th in run defense DVOA so this isn’t a cake matchup, but Robinson has at least 15 touches in every game this season and at least 4 catches in each of the last 4. He’ll be a high-floor RB2 in PPR leagues this week who could have a higher ceiling than usual without Thompson around to siphon passing-down work. He should be started in most formats.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Higgins has developed a clear rapport with Joe Burrow, drawing an average of 8 targets per game over the past 4 contests, and leading the WR group in snaps played in 3 of those 4 games. He broke through for his first 100-yard receiving game last week, and this week gets to face off with a Cleveland defense that has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game in the league. Joe Burrow had his best game of the season against these Browns, and while Higgins is going to match up with the best corner the Browns have (Denzel Ward), his target share should be solid enough that he’ll be a safe WR3 this week.
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Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Burrow’s best game so far this season came in week 2 against the same Browns he faces this week, when he threw for 316 yards and 3 TDs. The concern I have is that he had to throw the ball 61 times to reach those numbers. He hasn’t had even 40 attempts in any other game this season. The Browns have been playing better defense against QBs in recent weeks, holding Philip Rivers to fewer than 8 points and Big Ben to fewer than 11, and Burrow has been held without a passing TD in 3 of his 6 starts. He’s had a rushing score in two of those games, but I wouldn’t count on him continuing to find rushing scores to bail out his worst fantasy days. Burrow isn’t likely to kill you if you play him as your QB2 this week considering he’s already had a huge game against this defense, but he’s by no means a guy you have to start in 2-QB leagues if you have options you like better.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 7:@ DEN): It seems likely that Le’Veon Bell will make his debut for the Chiefs this week, and that will immediately change CEH’s status as an every-week auto-start. Bell is going to be involved. That’s not to say that Edwards-Helaire can’t help your fantasy team going forward, but he’s going to lose touches which will cap his ceiling. This week’s matchup with Denver isn’t a great one on paper. The Chiefs are a heavy 9.5-point favorite, so they should be able to lean on the run game, but Denver has done a great job limiting opposing backs. The Broncos rank 5th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest running back fantasy points per game. CEH could supplement his numbers with some receiving work, but James White is the only back to record more than 3 catches in a game against the Broncos this year. When you factor in Bell taking some of Clyde’s touches, it’s not hard to envision CEH having a lackluster fantasy game. He still has top-10 upside in this one, but the floor is a bit lower this week.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Dal.): Week 6 was the 5th time in 6 games that JD McKissic played more snaps than Gibson, and that will continue to happen as long as the Washington Football Team continues to play from behind. This week’s game with the Dak-less Cowboys is a pick’em in Vegas, so there is a reasonable chance that the game script stays at least neutral for Washington this week. Dallas has been abysmal on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA, and Gibson has been more active in the passing game in recent weeks with 4+ catches in three straight games. Antonio will probably continue to reside on the borderline until he sees his snap share go up, but he’s a decent RB2 option this week.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 7: vs. Jax.): At this point I am assuming that Justin Jackson, who is questionable with a knee injury, will play. That will limit Kelley to being a flex option this week, albeit one with plenty of upside. He’d be a sure-fire start if Jackson is out. The Jaguars have proven to be one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing the 6th-most RB points per game and ranking 22nd in run defense DVOA. Kelley has handled at least 10 touches in every game this season, even as he’s split playing time with Austin Ekeler and then Jackson. Against the Jaguars, the game script should favor the Chargers, so he should see more volume than usual, and those touches are gold against a defense like Jacksonville. Don’t be discouraged this week if you need Kelley as a fill-in. This should be his best fantasy game since week 2.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 7: @ HOU): The expectation at this point is that Aaron Jones is going to sit out on Sunday nursing a calf injury. If that happens, Dillon is going to get his first real chance to make his mark. Tyler Ervin will be out as well, so the Green Bay backfield will be split between Dillon and Jamaal Williams. Houston has been one of the best matchups for running backs, ranking 28th in run defense DVOA and giving up the 2nd-most RB points per game. They’ve given up by far a league-worst 161 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. There is still some uncertainty to how the workload will be split between Dillon and Williams. Williams has played nearly 5 times as many snaps as Dillon for the year and has 43 touches to just 13 for Dillon. My best guess as to how the split will play out is that they will have a pretty even split on early downs, and that Williams will get almost all of the passing down work. In this plus matchup, even half the carries should give Dillon a strong shot at 60+ rushing yards. He’s in play as a flex option, and is a stronger play in non-PPR formats.
RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): In the Jets’ first game after releasing Le’Veon Bell, Perine stepped into the lead back role, playing 58% of the offensive snaps, but Frank Gore still handled 15 touches to Perine’s 9. Buffalo isn’t a bad matchup for running backs. They rank 24th in run defense DVOA and have given up the 14th-most RB points per game. Perine should continue to see his touches increase going forward, and that means double-digit touches are possible this week. Against Buffalo that puts him on the flex radar, but I would avoid playing him unless you are desperate. The Jets implied total for the week is just 16.5, so they are not an offense to target.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 7: @ TEN): Claypool followed up his 4-touchdown breakout game with another top-10 WR finish in week 6, logging 81 scrimmage yards and a score. The matchup this week is a good one with the Titans allowing the 6th-most WR points per game, but the concern I have for Claypool is the return of Diontae Johnson. Johnson was the clear WR1 in this offense when he was healthy, seeing 23 targets come his way in the first two weeks of the season (31.5% share). Claypool seemed to mostly assume Johnson’s role the last two weeks, but I would expect his workload to take a sizable hit with Johnson returning. We don’t have a clear picture of what the Steelers’ WR depth chart will look like with everyone healthy. I expect it’ll be James Washington who sees the biggest drop in playing time this week, but Claypool takes enough of a hit that I see him as an upside WR3 this week rather than an automatic start.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 7:@ WAS): The Dallas offense looked like a shell of itself in week 6 with Dak Prescott out, but Lamb managed to put up a passable fantasy day on volume alone. He matched his season-high with 11 targets and finished with a 7-64 line. He should continue to be one of the top 2 options in the passing game along with Amari Cooper, but Dalton at QB certainly looks like it’s going to put a dent in his upside. The matchup this week is a tough one. Washington ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game. If you start Lamb this week, you probably shouldn’t expect much more than what he put up last week.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 7:@ NYJ): John Brown has been ruled out for week 7, and that bodes well for Davis. In the two games where Brown played less than 50% of the snaps, Davis posted 4-81 on 4 targets, and 5-51 on 9 targets. The Jets have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA, and Buffalo has an implied point total of 29.5 points. If Davis manages to get in the end zone, I expect this to easily be his highest scoring fantasy week of the year. Anything short of 10 PPR points in this one would be a disappointment.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 7:@ LAC): Shenault is coming off his worst game of the season in week 6, and week 7 should at least be a little bit better for him. The Chargers are just a middling pass defense, and although Shenault will draw a tough individual matchup with Casey Heyward for much of the game, he’s been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 4 games. The best sign for optimism for Viska is that the Chargers allow the 6th-most yards after catch per game and Shenault does a lot of his damage by getting the ball in space. He’s in play as a PPR WR3 with a little bit of upside in deeper leagues.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Jeudy struggled to make a fantasy impact last Sunday in a tough matchup with the Patriots, but the more concerning result from that game is that for the second consecutive game he was significantly out-targeted by Tim Patrick, who may be operating as the Broncos’ WR1. I expected that the return of Drew Lock would result in more balls going to Jeudy, but that wasn’t the case at least for one game. This week Jeudy gets another tough matchup in the slot against Tyrann Mathieu. His volume could see a boost this week with Denver a 9.5-point underdog, but it remains to be seen if that will translate into more points against a defense that allows the 5th-fewest WR points per game. He’s no more than a floor WR3 play this week in deeper leagues.
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Rookies to Sit:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Akers has been an afterthought in the Rams offense since returning from his injury, playing just 1 snap in week 6 and just 14 snaps total in the two games since he’s been back. There’s no question the Rams want to make an effort to get him more involved going forward, but it’s hard to be sure when it will happen. This week looked like a good opportunity with Darrell Henderson questionable due to a thigh injury, but he was removed from the injury report late in the week and should be good to go. The Bears rank 11th in run defense DVOA and allow the 11th fewest RB points per game, so there isn’t much reason to expect a useful fantasy day from Akers if he’s only going to see a handful of touches.
RB Ja’Mycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 7:@ NE): Hasty looked good last week in relief of Raheem Mostert after Mostert left Sunday night’s game with injury, but the backfield outlook for the 49ers is a little murky going forward. Jeff Wilson Jr. is likely to be back this week, and he has served as a goal-line option when Mostert has been out previously. This has the makings of a 3-man committee with Hasty splitting early down work with Jerick McKinnon, McKinnon handling passing down work, and Wilson being the short yardage and goal-line option. That’s going to severely limit the fantasy upside for all 3 of them. If I had to choose one to play it would be McKinnon. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, have allowed the 5th-fewest running back points per game.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 7:@ LV): Vaughn looked good in week 6 putting up 42 yards on just 5 carries, but his window for fantasy viability seems to have closed with LeSean McCoy returning last week and Leonard Fournette practicing in full ahead of this week’s game. It couldn’t have happened at a worse time for the rookie. The Bucs are about to square off with a defense that allows the 3rd-most RB points per game. It’s unlikely he gets back to 5 carries this week unless it’s a blowout win again. Vaughn shouldn’t be near your fantasy lineups this week despite a plum matchup.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 7:@ NE): Aiyuk saw his lowest target total since week 2 last Sunday night against the Rams. He managed to bail out his fantasy day with a touchdown, but he’s only reached 4+ catches and 60+ scrimmage yards once in the 5 games he’s played, and this was the second time in three games that he finished with fewer than 20 receiving yards. The Patriots have given up the 13th-most WR points per game, but a lot of that is due to more than 200 yards and 4 TDs that they gave up to Seattle’s receivers in week 2. They’ve been better in their other contests. Aiyuk will need to find the end zone to be a worthwhile option in week 7, and the 49ers have an implied total of just 21 points. I’d search for better options this week.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 7: vs. TB): Ruggs posted the best game of his young career in week 6 with 118 receiving yards and a touchdown, but he got there with just 2 catches on 3 targets. It’s hard to imagine him duplicating those numbers if his targets don’t increase. The performance last week came against a stingy Chiefs’ pass defense, and he gets another stingy defense this week. Tampa Bay ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game. The Bucs have given up 3 pass plays of 40+ yards in 6 games, and it will probably take at least one deep ball for Ruggs to return value again. There is upside for Ruggs, but a low floor as well. You may need some antacids handy if you start Ruggs this week.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 7:@ LAR): I’ve been high on Mooney in past weeks, but he hasn’t managed to turn a solid target share into productive fantasy weeks. Mooney is averaging 6 targets per game over the past 4 weeks, but he’s only reached 40+ receiving yards once in that span, and he’s yet to catch a touchdown from Nick Foles. This week would seem like a good one for him to get a few extra targets with Jalen Ramsey likely to be following Allen Robinson around, but the Bears have shown they’re willing to keep throwing Robinson’s way in tough matchups and the Rams have allowed the fewest WR points per game in the league. Anything over 40 yards out of Mooney this week would be a success for him.
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Hamler is expected to return this week after missing the last two games, but he walks into a tough matchup against the Chiefs. He’s averaged 6 targets per game in the two games that he played in full this season, but Kansas City has allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game. Denver should be playing from behind and throwing a decent amount, but they’ve yet to throw for 250 yards in a game as a team and Hamler is yet to catch for 50. I’d look for a safer option this week.
WR Freddie Swain, SEA (Wk. 7:@ ARI): Swain has started to push David Moore for the WR3 role in Seattle in recent weeks, but he’s still not quite to the point that he’s fantasy relevant. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the focal points of the passing game, so Swain will have to move fully ahead of Moore to be worth consideration. This isn’t a week to consider taking a shot on an ancillary Seattle receiver with Arizona allowing the 7th-fewest WR points per game. Monitor Swain in dynasty leagues, but there’s no reason to play him this week.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 7:@ LV): Johnson got in the end zone last weekend, but it was his only target of the game. He isn’t going to get much work as long as the rest of the WR group is healthy. He played just 17 snaps in week 6, and I don’t expect that number to be much higher in weeks where everyone else is healthy. This week’s matchup with the Raiders is a good one, but Johnson won’t be in a position to take advantage of it.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 7:@ LAR): Kmet scored his first touchdown last week, but it wasn’t the result of increased playing time. He still played only 35% of the snaps and remains the number 3 tight end in this offense. There’s no reason to consider him as anything more than a TD dart throw. The Rams have given up 4 tight end scores this season, but that doesn’t make it likely Kmet scores the 5th.
Rookies on byes in week 7: QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA, RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, RB JK Dobbins, BAL, WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, WR Devin Duvernay, BAL
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Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 7:@ NYJ): Moss returned to the lineup last Monday against Kansas City, but he played just 25% of the offensive snaps and tallied 5 carries and 10 yards. The key to Moss’s value is going to come from red zone opportunities, but last Monday the Bills ran just two offensive plays in the red zone. Both were touchdown passes. There should be a LOT more opportunity in this game for both Moss and Singletary. The Bills are favored by 13 points and should have plenty of chances to run the ball in the second half. The Jets have allowed the 7th-most RB points per game, and Moss has a very real chance to get double-digit touches against that defense if the game goes the way Vegas expects it to. Moss would be an interesting dart throw if you’re in a tough spot in a deeper league, and he costs barely more than the minimum on DraftKings.
WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will both be sidelined on Sunday, and while Tre’Quan Smith will be the biggest beneficiary, I’d expect Callaway to be an every-down player as well. Callaway played more snaps than Sanders back in week 5 and finished that game with 4 catches for 34 yards on 6 targets. The Panthers have done a pretty good job limiting opposing WRs, holding them to the 5th-fewest points per game, so the Saints offense is going to run mostly through Kamara, Jared Cook, and Latavius Murray. There should still be enough work for the receivers for Callaway to see another 6 or 7 targets, and with an implied total just below 30 points for New Orleans there should be a chance at a TD as well. Callaway costs the minimum on DraftKings and can be a nice fill-in WR in deeper leagues if byes or injuries are an issue for you.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Mims finally makes his season debut this week after battling through a hamstring injury, and while it would take a brave fantasy player to put him in the lineup in week 7, he shouldn’t be languishing on the waiver wire in deeper leagues. There is very little stiff competition for targets on the Jets’ depth chart, so it shouldn’t take Mims long to find his way into a prominent role. Jamison Crowder is doubtful for week 7, so his 11.5 targets per game will have to go somewhere, but the most likely candidate to benefit this week would be Braxton Berrios. The Bills allow the 12th-fewest WR points per game, so even if Mims does see a reasonable target share he’ll have limited upside this week. He’s a guy you should be stashing for now, and only considering as a minimum cost DFS option in week 7.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 7:@ CIN): Bryant had been building toward being a usable weekly option in 2 tight end leagues, but that was before David Njoku returned to the lineup. In week 6, Njoku played more snaps than Bryant for the first time all season. That would’ve made Bryant droppable in all formats…but then Austin Hooper popped up with an injury that will keep him out this week. The Browns play with 2 tight ends on the field a lot, and the Bengals have allowed 4 tight end scores in the last two weeks. Bryant is worth considering as a TD dart throw in DFS and if you’re desperate in deep leagues. I would prefer David Njoku to Bryant, but both have upside in this one.
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That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on who winds up being inactive on game-day and make sure none of them are in your lineups. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article from drinkfive.com.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 7 was another eventful one for the rookie crop. Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb each seemingly took the week off, but there were plenty of other big rookie performances to enjoy. Brandon Aiyuk, Antonio Gibson and James Robinson all reached 100 scrimmage yards in week 7, bringing the total of 100-yard days for the rookies to 23 divvied up between 12 different players. Justin Herbert finished the week as the QB1 and Joe Burrow as the QB4 in the best week of the season for either of them. Clyde Edwards-Helaire found the end zone of the first time since week 1, Harrison Bryant found it twice, and Albert Okwuegbunam became the first rookie tight end to reach 60 receiving yards in a game this year. The rookies certainly have more in store for us in week 8, so let’s dive in and look at what to expect…
(Note: All fantasy point totals and rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. All players under same header at same position are listed in order I would play them this week.)
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Rookies to Start:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): Joe Burrow has had the Browns’ number this season in spite of the Bengals’ 0-2 record against Cleveland this year. Over the two games Burrow totaled over 700 yards and 6 scores through the air, and another 53 and a TD on the ground. Since week 2, Burrow has thrown for over 300 yards against every opponent he’s faced except the Ravens, and the Titans aren’t a daunting matchup. Tennessee has given up the 10th-most QB points per game despite facing the 11th-easiest QB schedule. They’ve allowed each of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to throw for 250+ yards and multiple TDs, and I’d expect the Bengals’ QB to have a great chance to extend that streak to 6. Burrow is in play for 1-QB leagues this week.
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 8:@DEN): Herbert is coming off a monster game in week 7, his best fantasy game of the year, but the matchup this week isn’t quite as easy. I’d still view him as a low-end QB1 for week 8. He’s thrown for at least 260 yards each game this season and has accounted for 11 total TDs in the last 3 weeks. Denver has only allowed 2 QBs to throw for 250 yards against them, and has given up just 1 passing TD total in the last 3 games, but they’ve proven to be vulnerable to QB runs. Sam Darnold ran for 84 yards and a score against them in week 4, and Cam Newton ran for 76 and a TD in week 6. Herbert showed what he can do running the ball last week with 66 yards and a TD on the ground. That rushing ability should give him enough cushion to withstand it if he doesn’t have a ceiling passing game. View Herbert as a very strong QB2 or upside low-end QB1.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 8:@DET): Taylor benefitted in his last couple games from a banged up Jordan Wilkins, and while Wilkins may be healthier this week the matchup with Detroit is good enough for Taylor to be a locked-in RB2 even if he cedes some carries to Wilkins. Detroit allows the 5th-most RB points per game, the Colts are favored by a field goal, and Taylor is coming off his most productive receiving game since week 1. Taylor is a safe bet to make a run at 100 scrimmage yards for the second game in a row, and given the Colts’ implied total of 26.5 he’s a pretty good bet to find the end zone as well.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): I can’t say for sure if Edwards-Helaire has felt the pressure from the Chiefs’ signing of Le’Veon Bell, but his play over the last two weeks has looked like that of a man that doesn’t want to lose his job. In Bell’s debut, CEH had to split work with the veteran addition, and had to give way to DeAndre Washington in the 2nd half with the game well in hand, but he still managed to finish as the RB15 for the week. This week’s matchup with the Jets has as lopsided of an NFL betting line as I’ve ever seen, with Kansas City favored by an absurd 19.5 points. It’s possible CEH and Bell are watching from the sideline down the stretch again, but you can’t sit Clyde in this game. The Jets have allowed the 8th-most RB points per game, and CEH is the lead half of the RB committee in a game where the Chiefs implied total is 34 points. There is a great chance that Edwards-Helaire gets in the end zone in this one, and he should be locked into your lineup if you have him.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 8:@GB): Over the last month or so Jefferson has made a clear case that his upside is just too much to leave on your bench. He’s topped 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, and 160 in two of them. He did square off with the Packers in week 1 without much success (2-26 on 3 targets), but that was with no preseason, and he had yet to unseat Bisi Johnson for the WR2 role. Adam Thielen is likely to draw shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, which could be a boost for Jefferson. Alexander has struggled with Adam Thielen in past meetings, including coughing up 6-110-2 on 8 targets in week 1, but Jaire has been much better since then. The Vikings are a 6-point underdog, so game script should keep them throwing. Jefferson should be a solid WR2 this week.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 8:@SEA): The 49ers just cannot keep their offensive weapons healthy this season. Last Sunday it was Deebo Samuel and Jeffrey Wilson who went down, and Aiyuk stands to benefit from it this week. The Seahawks have allowed the most WR points per game in the league, and rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. He’ll be the default WR1 in this game. The 49ers have a reputation of throwing most of their passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, and Aiyuk can excel in that short passing game, but the average pass thrown to Aiyuk has been over 11 yards downfield. The 49ers will have to score to keep pace with Seattle, and that probably means 7+ targets for the rookie. He’s going to be a safe WR3 in all formats this week.
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Borderline Rookies:

RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 8:@SEA): Pretty soon the 49ers should just start putting the words “next man up” on the back of their running back jerseys rather than a name. They’ve seen Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and now Jeffrey Wilson all go down with injuries this year, and every time someone goes down, they seem to have a dynamic back ready to step in and take over. It appears to be Hasty’s turn to be that back. He’s looked great on the opportunities he’s gotten in the last two weeks, totaling 94 yards on 18 carries. The Seahawks have been a solid run defense ranking 8th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 12th-fewest points per game to the position, but they struggled to contain Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, and Chase Edmonds in their last 2 games. The absence of run-stuffing safety Jamal Adams has started to be a problem. Adams’ status is still up in the air this week. If he plays it would be a slight downgrade for Hasty, but he should be in line for 15+ carries and a few targets as well. Jerick McKinnon will mix in a bit as well but look for Hasty to be the lead back. He should be a reasonable RB2 option this week depending on what your lineup looks like.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): Swift managed to find the end zone for the second straight week last Sunday, but the touchdown was the highlight of an otherwise pedestrian fantasy day. There were some positives to take away though. It was the second straight week where Swift led the backfield in snaps, and he’s also seen almost as many carries as Adrian Peterson in those two weeks. He’s also now seen 4+ targets in 5 of 6 games for the season. He gets a tough matchup this week with the Colts, who allow the 5th-fewest running back points per game, so you should temper expectations a little bit. I still think Swift has shown enough that he will continue to see the most snaps and touches in this backfield and is a viable flex option this week even in a difficult matchup.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Moss played in almost an even split of the backfield snaps with Devin Singletary in week 7, and if that timeshare continues he could be a sneaky upside option in week 8. The Patriots can be run on. They rank just 25th in run defense DVOA and have allowed at least 1 running back in each of their last 5 games to reach 60+ rushing yards and 80+ scrimmage yards. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in this game, so game script should remain at least neutral for them. I like Moss’s chances of getting 10+ carries and, I think he’s the more likely bet than Singletary if the Pats are going to extend their streak to 6 games of 60+ and 80+. I view him as an upside RB3/flex option.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Mark Ingram left the Ravens’ week 6 game with an injury heading into the bye week, and he’s still not practicing this week as of Thursday. That means Dobbins and Gus Edwards are likely to split the backfield work on Sunday. The two saw an almost dead-even split of the snaps in week 6, with Dobbins handling 9 carries and 4 targets while Edwards handled 14 and 1. Dobbins had more rushing yards on his 9 attempts than Edwards had on 14. This week’s matchup with Pittsburgh is a difficult one. The Steelers rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-fewest points to the position, so it could be a bit of an uphill fight to a strong fantasy day. If you had to choose one of the two to play this week, I would go with Dobbins. He’s clearly the more explosive back, and he’s posted 3 plays of 30+ yards on just 36 touches this season. I’d view him as a contrarian DFS play at $4,600 in DraftKings and a flex option in deeper leagues.
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 8:@DEN): Kelley seemed to move ahead of Justin Jackson in the Chargers’ backfield pecking order, but this will remain a fluid situation moving forward. Kelley out-snapped Jackson 38-to-31 and handled 17 touches to Jackson’s 10 against the Jaguars. The matchup this week is much tougher against a Denver defense that allows the 3rd-fewest RB points per game. The Broncos have allowed just 2 backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in their last 4 games, and James White had to catch 8 passes to accomplish the feat. Given that the work will be split between Kelley and Jackson, I’d only be considering Kelley if you’re desperate here. There is some upside if he further takes over the early-down work and widens the playing time gap with Jackson, but it could just as easily go the other direction as well.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): I would lean towards playing Higgins if I have him, but the re-emergence of AJ Green has made him a bit more of a volatile play. Higgins saved his day with a 4th-quarter touchdown last week, but the 5 targets he saw come his way were the fewest he’s seen since week 1. Tennessee has been carved up by opposing wide receivers, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position, but it’s Tyler Boyd who will have the easiest matchup in this one again slot corner Chris Jackson. Jackson is a 7th-round rookie who has been forced into a starting role and has a 29.9 coverage grade (scale from 0-100) from Pro Football Focus. Higgins still has easy starter upside in a game that could be a shootout, but there is some downside if he doesn’t get in the end zone.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 8:@CLE): If there was ever a week where Ruggs is going to look like a good option, it’s this one. He faces a Cleveland defense that has surrendered the 2nd-most WR points per game and ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA. The only thing holding him back is his lack of volume. Ruggs hasn’t seen more than 3 targets come his way in a game since week 1, but he didn’t let that stop him from going for 118 yards and a score against the Chiefs two weeks ago. At some point the Raiders have to give their number 1 receiver more opportunities. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week, and the matchup makes me a little more inclined to take a chance on this being a boom week. He’s a very interesting option for DFS tournaments at $4,900 on DraftKings.
WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 8:@CHI): If you’re considering Callaway, you’ll need to monitor the status of Michael Thomas ahead of this game. If Thomas plays, Callaway would move to the ‘Rookies to Sit’ portion of the column. If Thomas is out, Callaway becomes an intriguing PPR WR3 option with Emmanuel Sanders also still sidelined battling a symptomatic case of Covid-19. Thomas did return to practice on Thursday, but his status is still up in the air. Callaway has played more than 65% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks, and in those games he has averaged 8 targets, 6 catches, and 54.5 yards. The Bears are a stingy defense against WRs, allowing the 4th-fewest points per game to the position, but Drew Brees has a way of finding his guys. I think he would finish not too far off what he did last week if Thomas is out again.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): When Courtland Sutton went down for the year, it was assumed it would be Jeudy who would step into a WR1 role for the Broncos, but that hasn’t been the case so far. Tim Patrick has cemented himself into that role instead with Jeudy serving as more of a secondary option. The rookie has just 13 targets over the last 3 games, and has turned them into 6 catches for 113 yards and a TD. This week’s opponent, the Chargers, allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game. With Jeudy spending a lot of time in the slot, he should at least avoid the toughest Charger CB Casey Heyward. It’ll be Patrick who draws that matchup, but this game won’t be a picnic for Jeudy. He should still see a handful of targets, but he’s not an option you should be relying on unless forced to in a deeper league.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 8:@PHI): Week 7 was a sobering reminder of just how low Lamb’s floor will be without Dak Prescott under center. This isn’t going to be the dynamic passing game it was early in the season, and Lamb will need volume to return productive games. Lamb gets the best matchup of the Dallas WRs, facing off with slot corner Cre’Von LeBlanc while Amari Cooper is likely to be shadowed by Darius Slay, but with Ben DiNucci under center you should be dropping expectations pretty low. Philly gives up the 12th-most WR points per game, but Lamb is no more than a floor PPR flex play this week.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 8:@LV): Bryant made the most of Austin Hooper’s appendectomy last weekend by getting into the end zone twice against the Bengals. He played 77% of the offensive snaps and looks like the #1 tight end as long as Hooper is out. The Raiders haven’t been especially giving to tight ends, allowing the 14th-fewest TE points per game, but in the last 2 games they’ve allowed Travis Kelce to put up 8-108-1 and Gronk to put up 5-62-1. They also are pretty bad as a pass defense in general, ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA. Bryant should be an enticing TE streaming option as the lead TE in an offense that likes to utilize the position and has an implied total of more than 28 points this week. Another top-10 TE finish wouldn’t be a surprise.
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Rookies to Sit:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): Tua will make his first career start on Sunday, and it comes in a less than ideal matchup. The Rams have allowed the 6th-fewest QB points per game, and any defense that boasts Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey isn’t a great one to make your first start against. There is some upside here. The Rams have allowed Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh Allen to each throw for 3+ TDs and 250+ yards against them, and Tua is in the same realm talent-wise as Burrow and Herbert. There are easier matchups coming for Tua. I’d leave him sidelined this week unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB or Superflex league.
QB Ben DiNucci, DAL (Wk. 8:@PHI): I’d avoid DiNucci unless he is the only available option for you. He had a sterling senior season at James Madison in 2019, but he was mediocre at Pitt before that. The NFL is a huge jump in competition level, and we’ve seen over the last couple weeks that the Dallas o-line is a mess right now. There are a couple positives for the rookie. He does have an arsenal of weapons at his disposal, he has the wheels to escape the inevitable heat he’ll feel in the pocket (he averaged over 500 yards rushing per season in 2 years at JMU), and Philly isn’t a fearsome QB defense. Philly has allowed the 16th-most QB points per game despite facing the 2nd-easiest QB schedule in the league so far. Despite all that, I expect DiNucci to look like a deer in the headlights at times and wouldn’t trust him in any fantasy formats this week. If Dallas had any way to avoid playing him, they would take it.
RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 8:@KC): Perine has been playing as the lead back for the Jets for a couple weeks now, out-snapping Frank Gore 81-to-41, but Gore is getting more of the opportunities. Gore has 22 carries and 4 targets in those games, and Perine has 18 carries and 6 targets. The Chiefs are as heavy a favorite as you’ll ever see in an NFL game, so the Jets may have to abandon the run fairly early on. There is a chance that Perine gets some receiving work in garbage time, but with the Jets implied total of 14.5, this is an offense to avoid for the most part (especially the running backs). You could roll Perine out there if you’re desperate, but you’ll be better off looking for a higher upside option.
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Dallas may be forced into a prominent role this week with Chris Carson likely out and Travis Homer banged up as well. If both sit this week, Carlos Hyde will serve as the early down back and Dallas will work as the third-down guy and receiving back. This isn’t the best matchup to roll out a guy who will serve mainly as a receiving back. The 49ers haven’t allowed any running back this year to get to 4 receptions, and only two backs have reached 20 receiving yards against them. Dallas played 12 snaps last week and handled zero rushing attempts. That won’t lead him to a productive fantasy game this week.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 8:@MIA): Until we see Akers start to play more, there’s no way to justify putting him in your lineup. He’s been on the field for just 4 snaps in the last two weeks. Akers would need an injury ahead of him or a blowout on the scoreboard to get into the game. The Dolphins do rank dead last in run defense DVOA, but they excel in pass defense and should at a minimum stay in the game.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Aaron Jones probably returns this week, but even if he doesn’t Dillon touched the ball just 5 times last week with Jones out. Jamaal Williams worked as the clear lead back. It does seem silly that the Packers used a second-round pick on Dillon but are so unwilling to put him on the field. Minnesota is a middle-of-the-pack run defense, but even if this were a great matchup Dillon doesn’t play enough to be trusted.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 8:@BAL): What a change a couple weeks have made for Claypool. Two weeks ago he was the talk of the league after a 4-touchdown breakout game. Last Sunday he saw just one target and finished the day with negative yards. He’s bound to be better than that this week. The Steelers won’t hold anything back against the Ravens, and Claypool has been one of the best playmakers on the team. I’m sure there will be a few shot plays drawn up for the rookie, but with Diontae Johnson back on the field Claypool basically functions as a part-time WR3. In his 3 healthy games, Johnson has averaged nearly 13 targets per game (31% target share). In those 3 games, Claypool has averaged 2 targets. You should steer clear unless you’re desperate this week. Diontae did get a little banged up at the end of the Titans’ game. It sounds like he should be fine, but if he is unexpectedly out Claypool becomes a high upside WR3.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Peoples-Jones made a spectacular game-winning TD catch last Sunday after Odell Beckham exited with what turned out to be a torn ACL. It was an exciting moment for the rookie, and may be the first truly big catch he’s made since high school or earlier. He’s always had tantalizing potential but was never a consistent performer at Michigan. Some people expect DPJ to assume a bigger role in the offense with Beckham out, but I would pump the brakes at least a little bit. Rashard Higgins is the guy who becomes an immediate starter, and Cleveland uses their 2-tight end set as a base formation. There will be more playing time for DPJ, but that will probably mean he’ll be playing 40-50% of the offensive snaps going forward. Vegas is a burnable pass defense, ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA, but if I’m taking a shot on a Browns wide receiver this week Peoples-Jones is third in line behind Jarvis Landry and Higgins. Jones should be rostered in deeper leagues in case he does emerge though.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Davis was a full-time player in week 7 with John Brown out, playing 95% of the offensive snaps, but it didn’t translate into fantasy production. He posted just 1 catch for 11 yards on 3 targets. Brown is practicing in full this week as of Wednesday, and it’s hard to envision Davis being a better play when he goes back to playing less than 50% of the snaps against a talented New England secondary.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Duvernay’s snap share increased for 4 consecutive weeks heading into the team’s bye, but some of that can be attributed to Miles Boykin being banged up. Boykin should be back to full strength after a week off. Duvernay has averaged 7 PPR points per game in the last two games, but Pittsburgh ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA and isn’t really a matchup to target for Duvernay.
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Rookies on Byes in Week 8: RB James Robinson, JAX, RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, WR Laviska Shenault, JAX, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS
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Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 8:@NYG): Tampa enters week 8 as a 10.5-point favorite, and for now it seems that Vaughn has moved into the RB3 spot on the depth chart behind Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. If this game stays close, Vaughn won’t play much. He didn’t play much in a blowout win a week ago against the Raiders, but Tampa led by just 4 with 8 minutes to go and pulled away down the stretch. If they get up earlier in this one, I’d expect Vaughn to get some extended run. The Giants allow the 10th-most RB points per game. Vaughn is worth a look as a minimum priced option for DFS limited slate tournaments.
RB Jason Huntley, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): With Dallas looking at Ben DiNucci starting at QB, the rout could be on for Philly. Since it became clear that DiNucci would start, the line has moved almost a touchdown in Philly’s favor. The Eagles are now a 9-point favorite. That could mean a lot of opportunity in the second half for Huntley and Corey Clement. Huntley has the burners to break a long touchdown, and Dallas is tied for the most 20+ yard runs (9) and 40+ yard runs (3) allowed this season. He’s no more than a dart throw for a limited slate DFS tournament or the deepest of leagues, but the opportunity is there for a strong game out of Huntley.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 8:@KC): Mims walked into a much bigger role in his first game than I expected, turning 7 targets into 4-42. He was barely used at all in the 2nd half of the game, but the entire Jets’ offense called it a day at halftime anyway. This week they have a VERY low projected total at just 14.5 points, and they should be throwing a ton in a very negative game script. Breshad Perriman looks like he’ll be out this week, and Jamison Crowder could be as well. Mims will be the de facto WR1 if both guys miss this game. The Chiefs are a tough WR matchup, allowing the 5th-fewest points per game to the position, but the ball has to go somewhere. Mims costs little more than the minimum on DraftKings, and you could make a case for starting him if you need a fill-in in a deep league. It’s easy to envision him topping the production he put up in his debut, but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a TD in this one.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 8:@NYG): Tyler Johnson has had a nice stretch over the past 3 weeks, with 60 yards or a touchdown in each game, and he gets a fortuitous opportunity this week. Antonio Brown will be ready to go for week 9, so this may be the last chance he gets as a rookie to make his mark, and Chris Godwin will miss Sunday’s game with a broken finger. The last time Godwin missed a game, Johnson played 79% of the snaps and finished with 4 catches for 61 yards on 6 targets. The Giants have allowed the 11th-most WR points per game and rank 27th in pass defense DVOA. Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are certainly ahead of Johnson in the target pecking order this week, but Johnson might legitimately be #3. He’s a fill-in option in really deep leagues, and in-play for DFS tournaments at just $3,500 on DraftKings.
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): While Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy are dealing with Casey Heyward and Desmond King respectively, Hamler will get to face off with Michael Davis. Davis has allowed the highest QB rating against, and the most yards per target into his coverage of any of the Chargers starting corners. In the 3 games he’s played, Hamler has averaged 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt, and could see a couple extra opportunities come his way with the tougher individual matchups for Patrick and Jeudy. KJ has enough speed to break a long TD, and he may be worth a DFS dart throw at just $3,600 on DraftKings.
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Reagor is back at practice this week and seems likely to be activated for week 8’s matchup with the Cowboys. I don’t think this is an ideal week to get him into your fantasy lineups, but if he’s available on the wire in a deeper league, he’s a guy you should target. The Eagles are light on offensive weapons right now outside of Travis Fulgham, and Reagor can be a game breaker. The matchup this week is a good one on paper, with Dallas allowing the 6th-most WR points per game, but this one could be over by halftime with Dallas starting an unheralded rookie QB. If you want to wager that Jalen makes an impact while the game is still competitive, the best place to do that would be in a DFS tournament. Reagor costs just $3,600 on DraftKings this week.
TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): Okwuegbunam didn’t play a single snap in the first 4 games of the season, but he’s announced his presence in a big way over the last two weeks. He’s an athletic weapon who clearly still has good chemistry with his college QB Drew Lock. Albert has played just 52 snaps in the last two weeks, and had the ball come his way on 13 of them. Noah Fant returned from injury last week, and the rookie still saw 7 targets and caught every one of them for 60 yards. This is a guy who shouldn’t be on your dynasty waiver wire, and would make for an intriguing dart throw this week in DFS tournaments at just $2,800 on DraftKings. The Chargers allow the 12th-most TE points per game.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NO): Kmet has largely been an afterthought for fantasy players this season, serving as the Bears TE3 behind Jimmy Graham and Demetrius Harris. Kmet’s still not a guy you can trust in season-long lineups, but it appears he may have pulled even with Harris on the depth chart, playing more snaps than the veteran for the first time this season last Monday. In the first 4 games of the season, Kmet was targeted just 3 times and turned them into 1 catch for 12 yards. He finally broke through with a touchdown in week 6, but I chalked it up to a fluke. He followed that up with another 2 catches for 45 yards in week 7. I know those aren’t ‘startable’ fantasy numbers, but he is heading in the right direction and the Saints have allowed the 2nd-most TE points per game this year. New Orleans has given up 30+ yard catches to little-used tight ends Foster Moreau and Jesse James this season, and let Marcedes Lewis in the end zone as well. Kmet will cost the minimum on DraftKings, and if there was any week to take a chance on Kmet having a surprisingly good game, this is the one to do it. The possible absence of Allen Robinson would free up some targets, and a couple of those could find their way to Cole.
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That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you don’t start anyone who ends up inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article from drinkfive.com.