This is a rather long one and the last in this particular Universe for a while, enjoy!
​
Admiral Alexis was... Bored... When the usual suspects called for an emergency meeting he expected another war, some sort of political snafu or maybe a major discovery that would require his input.
Once he learned how little was at stake he stopped really listening, as far as he's was concerned it was just about someone cheating at video games...
****************************** The War Games had first been introduced as a way to create camaraderie between the races and to have hard data on the strategies and capabilities of the different races.
The Noradons had been the only ones who participated along side the Humans.
Targeting locks would count as hits for space combat, smoke would be artillery explosions, low level electric batons would be used to simulate blades and good old paint balls for live ammunition.
The result was an overwhelming win for the Humans, the Noradons' new Overseer, Talon, was far too direct in his approach, the only victories he achieve were when he had superior numbers and never in defense scenarios.
He didn't care for traps, small deployment of troops, scouts, listening to his officers on the ground or any type of subterfuge.
The second was a more balanced affair, the Noradons had now far more specialist units and Talon had learned from his mistakes.
It was also a lot more popular, it wasn't viewed as a barbaric display of power like the first one but as a more violent sporting event.
Thou the second game was better remembered for the arrival of the A/O during the closing of the games.
****************************** The ceremony was finished, everyone was picking up their things and preparing to leave.
Kin son of Krono, host of the ceremony at the Commonwealth's HQ had the classic bartender's look that screamed: you don't have to go home but you can't stay here...
That is until Lawless contacted him.
A massive ship, dreadnought class from the tonnage, had just entered the system, it would be here in mere minutes.
Seeing how The Pale Horse and the Queen's Fury, the only known dreadnoughts, were already there this was worrisome to say the least.
He urged everyone to remain, not that anyone was going to leave now, this was exactly what the War Games were ultimately about: being ready when the time came to fight.
By the time the unknown ship emerged, the Combined fleet, the Noradons swarm along side the dozen or so ships of the Imphlasms were ready for anything, the Va'sh had stayed home.
Historians still wonder to this day what would have happened had they been present.
The ship was an odd mix of science and gardening gone wrong, an icosahedron with a power signature better measured in stars covered in moss and vines.
Admiral Alexis: “Identify yourself and your intentions”
Unknown Ship: “We are us, we wish to learn all there is to know”
Admiral Alexis: Huh, doesn't sound too bad
Unknown Ship: “We wish to be the only sentient races alive!”
Alexis: Ah, this would be the other shoe dropping, “We can help you with that first part but do not think we will just allow ourselves to be killed without a fight”
The Unknown Ship powered what looked like weapons
The fleets above Commonwealth HQ were ready for combat and spread out in loose formations, combat was about to be joined.
Than came from Commonwealth's Law a message sent on all frequencies
3.14: “Very well and than what?”
Unknown Ship: “... We would be safe and no other sentient beings would add needless variables to the grand equation”
3.14: Grand equation? Have we finally run into civilized alien lifeforms!?, “I assume the grand equation is a single mathematical formula that explains and predicts all things in the Universe?”
Unknown Ship sounding happy and not monotone for the first time: “Yes!”
3.14: “So your plan is to remove all sentient beings to make it safe and easier to calculate”
Unknown Ship: “Yes, that would be optimal”
3.14: “And you would just exist like that until the heat death of the Universe?”
Unknown Ship: “The what?”
Admiral Alexis was growing impatient, the Krush ambassador and the Ship had been talking astrophysics for two hours now, the Unknown Ship powered down their weapons into the first few minutes of this discussion and it was looking like there would be no fighting after all.
Unknown Ship: “I see, so no matter what, eventually all things would end”
3.14: “It is inevitable”
Unknown Ship: “Perhaps, perhaps not, we will think on how to prevent this, it is a far more grievous threat than any alien species consuming us”
3.14: “Yes that would be a worthy endeavor to occupy a mind like... Wait, eat you!?”
The threat of conflict over, proper introductions took place, the Ship was composed of two species: the moss and vines was a single plant entity and the ship itself a massive AI, the first true and somehow naturally occurring AI the galaxy had ever known.
They had met by accident, the plant life form floated into the hull of the AI on a small meteor and grew there, the AI could easily predict how it behaved, it liked the little plant and they formed a bond.
In their travels they intercepted Commonwealth transmissions.
The Plant accessed the holo-net and saw that every sentient species ate plants in some capacity, the AI saw the chaos some species were capable off.
They decided to strike first but upon learning how all would one day end shifted focus to finding a may to prevent it.
They were giving a name: Alpha for being first of their kind and Omega for their shared goal to see that the end never happens, A/O for short.
They chose to stay in orbit around Commonwealth HQ, doing nothing of note.
Sometimes the AI would discuss theories with the scientifically inclined races on how to prevent heat death and the Plant would have philosophical debates on what constitutes life with the more spiritual races.
****************************** Alexis sighed
That was then, this is now
Alexis looked at Ambassador Paul trying and failing to convince the others of the gravity of the situation.
“This could prove a huge security risk, we must find out who is doing this!”
Alexis had had enough
“No offense but finding out who is messing with the War Game's holo settings isn't much of a threat”
Paul: “The most likely scenario is that someone is interfering with the Games in order to make a large profits from the bets taking place, we must find who is doing this”
3.14: “I'm pretty sure only Humans would do such a thing”
He looks at the Admiral
“No offence”
Admiral Alexis: “None taken, I mean, who else thinks it's Humans?”
Lady EliIi: “No doubt”
Warlord M'rm'n: “Of course!”
Ambassador Uv: “Makes sense”
Lawless, the AI of the Commonwealth Law sat at this meeting, she was the referee of the Games
“It's Humans, there's no question about that”
Paul: Et tu Lawless? “Anyway, I have put top men in charge of finding out the truth”
3.14: “Who?”
Paul: “Top. Men”
****************************** Lord Doros was having a bad day, the Combined ambassador had contacted Transit concerning supposed hacking of the War Games.
Normally this would be well beneath the 12 Blades but their “failure” with the Diszin incident had allowed the ambassador to call in a favor, so to speak.
Lord Doros: Pretty sure we got the job as punishment.
He thought back to the morning's meeting
Boss: “... And so we have to find who is messing with the Games and why”
Everyone looked confused, Lord Doros was fuming...
Scout K'r's lifted his paw
“Not that I mind but killing someone over rigging games feels like going overboard”
G00.106 nods
Boss sighed
“We are not to kill anyone,we simply report our finding to the officials and arrest the individuals if we can”
The specialists in the room said nothing, the shock was total, this mission was not only something they should never have to do but they would have to operate like common... Cops.
Lord Doros had had enough
“So what's next? Trade disputes? Traffic control!?”
Boss: “I understand how you feel but Transit gave us the mission and we must obey”
Lord Doros: That was 5 hours ago, now we are on the Commonwealth Law, looking for “leads”
Smith was a professional, he was given a task and would complete it, no matter how absurd.
He was meeting with Lord Doros, K'r's and G00.106 in the Commonwealth's Law cafeteria, there were dozen of groups of different races all over the place, while most individuals who participated in the Games did not travel to Commonwealth HQ, many coaches, reporters and VIPs did.
Which is why Commonwealth Law was used as a safe meeting for these individuals.
The media to try to snag any exclusives they could, the VIPs to follow the games along side fellow VIPs and the coaches for the timed honored tradition of getting in the referees face when they had a complaint.
Lord Doros was already sitting at the meeting table
“So anything?”
Smith sat at the opposite side of the table and G00.106 stayed standing her back to the two.
Smith: “No luck so far, I talked with a few coaches and the odd VIP but they let nothing slip”
Lord Doros nodded, he himself had not found anything and given the levels of security involved he doubted anyone would.
“G00.106?”
G00.106 shrugged
“Not a damn thing, I even tried asking a few males while wearing nothing but lingerie like some of the girls onboard suggested but all I got were screams and a fine for..”
She reads her datapad to get it right
“... Creepy indecent exposure”
Smith had a horrifying mental image and shuddered.
Lord Doros shuddered a second later
“Thanks for sharing specialist Smith”
Smith: “Sorry, the image just, wait a second wouldn't you have gotten the same from G00.106 anyway?”
Lord Doros shakes his head
“Noradons are now all psychically linked to the Overseer at some level, you can't read one without listening in on all of them so it comes out as static”
Smith: “Very well... So i guess we have no leads to follow”
G00.106 was slightly insulted by the conversation that had just taken place but decided to move on
“So anyway, I doubt it was Noradons, we don't really do the whole crime thing”
Lord Doros nodded
Smith: “Has anyone seen K'r's? It's not his style to be late”
Lord Doros opened his eyes wide and looked up
Smith and G00.106 followed his gaze.
K'r's was sitting above them on a lamp, his green coat and pants were torn in places, his beret was missing, chunks of fur looked to have been ripped off and he had a thousand yard stare that spoke of unimaginable horrors.
Smith: “What the Hell happened to you!”
K'r's grabbed a flask from inside his coat, unscrewed the lid and took a sip
“Ran into Captain Grace”
He than took a much, much larger drink, never making eye contact.
Smith bit his fist and looked away.
G00.106 separated her arms, jumped into the pole holding the lamp and grabbed the Va'sh, cradling him like a new born larva and looked at Lord Doros
“Permission to take specialist K'r's to the ship for medical care!”
Lord Doros nodded solemnly
“Granted”
Smith and Lord Doros watched her run to their shuttle
Smith looked concerned
“Poor bastard...”
Smith than shifted to looking as chipper as ever
“So anyway, I doubt the Noradons had anything to do with the hacking, I mean there's no such thing as Noradons' organized crime after all”
****************************** Late at night, in the middle of the workers district of the Commonwealth Capital, a G00 unit wearing a brown trench coat and a black hat was slowly making her way to a bar.
She approached carefully, looking into every shadow and jumping at every noise, she had what looked like an Xmas gift in her hand.
The box was small and by the looks of it had been wrapped by a child... Or a really drunk adult.
She eventually gathered her courage and knocked on the bar's door, two fast knocks followed by two slower ones.
The door opened a tiny fraction, the “gift” was quickly exchanged for a grey bag of unknown content.
The G00 unit left, practically running.
Inside the bar the bouncer, a soldier Noradon, wearing a tuxedo and sunglasses made his way to the back.
He walked calmly, the sentients drinking and smoking paid him no attention besides the occasional nod, which he politely returned.
He entered the VIP room, Big Vinny, the proprietor of the establishment: the Carlito's Way, was sitting on his leather couch.
He was wearing a white suit with a matching ascot, a gold chain and a massive silver ring on his dorsal right hand.
Big Vinny was an engineering drone, smaller than the average Noradon to more easily get to tight places and with three digits per arm instead of claws to use precision tools.
Not that Big Vinny was small, he was overweight which to a Noradon with a perfectly genetically built gastric system was no small feat.
The bouncer, Tony, handed him the gift, bowed and left the room.
Vinny waited for Tony to leave before opening the package, inside was a box of chocolates, sixteen total.
He smiled
Best way to get a message without risk of it getting intercepted? Code it using foodstuffs.
He put the chocolates in order, the shapes symbolized the events taking place in the following days, the filling who would win and the individual wrapping's color the optimal spread.
He committed the information to memory and ate the evidence.
Taste like... Profits!
******************************** The Games had being a huge success so far, the Humans were leading by a razor thin margin.
The sabotage event was a surprise steal by the Imphlasms following the sudden rain that made Va'sh guards miss their approach until it was too late.
They than lost the retrieve and salvage mission to the Human team who won on a technicality
The Human field engineer was quoted saying:
“The rules said we had to get the ship back faster than the other team, never said nothing about it not exploding or having it's crew making it out alive”
Which was true, thou the rules would certainly see changes for the next Games.
This year marked the first time the War Games would shift from live exercises to holo-space recreations.
As such many more species joined this time around, most were out of the running by this time however.
The Humans lead by a single event, the Noradons were in second place, the Va'sh in third and the Impshlasms in fourth.
Today was the last four scheduled events: base defense, VIP assassination, survival on a Deathworld and the three-legged race, no one was certain how that last one ended up there...
The Noradons had pulled an upset on the base defense by outsmarting the human attackers, they used the molted exoskeleton of their soldier caste to have their engineers hold the front gate while the soldiers burrowed beneath the entrance and slaughtered the attackers in the resulting pitfall trap.
The VIP assassination had been won by the Va'sh, the human guards had a hard time pulling the trigger when they attacked and the Noradons and Imphlasm simply weren't fast enough.
Thou the moment a Human sniper managed to get his laser sight on the Va'sh VIP, which resulted in his guards accidentally mauling him to death, was considered a Pyrrhic victory.
Smith had been watching the whole thing from his now usual cafeteria table, not much to do when he had already spoken to anyone who allow him to get close to them.
I hope the others had better luck...
Lord Doros approached him and sat down
“I have managed to find no leads”
Smith didn't look at him, to anyone else watching, the Aaen had just whispered to himself.
Is the kitten doing okay?
Lord Doros: “He'll be out of med-bay in a day or so”
Smith gave a barely perceptible nod
G00.106 arrived at the table, she looked in a hurry
“I have a lead! What do you know of the Carlito's Way?”
Lord Doros and Smith looked at each-other nonplus
Smith adventured an answer
“... I don't like the ending I guess?”
G00.106 looked at him like he was an idiot
“What? No I'm talking about a bar in the Commonwealth Capital, Solenia”
She explained how one of her sisters from her hive back home contacted her, to let her know if she wanted in on a gambling scheme she was part of.
“I've made 4 times my initial bet so far!”
Was what she had told her.
G00.106: “My guess is that they're somehow behind the hacking, like the rain that costed the Va'sh the sabotage mission or the Humans weapon misfire when the Va'sh attacked their VIP”
Smith: “I don't think the weapons mis... Anyway, should we contact Lawless and check this bar out?”
Lord Doros: “Yes, this seems like a solid lead”
****************************** Smith, Lord Doros, G00.106 and Lawless made their way to the Carlito's Way.
Lawless insisted on joining the team, citing how as the referee of the Games it was her duty to see those who would defile it brought to justice, thou Smith thought the AI was probably just looking to get away from the incessant complaining from the coaches...
They found the bar with no issues, it had all the proper permits and all taxes were payed.
Lord Doros: “G00.106, you take point”
G00.106 hesitated
“Shouldn't Smith do it?”
Smith: “Normally yes, but you have an actual “in” with the crowd we are trying to infiltrate, I will enter with you as a friend looking to make some money, than”
He points at Lord Doros and Lawless
“They come in later as a couple looking for an out of the way place to have a quiet drink”
Lord Doros: “Anything goes wrong, we back you up”
Smith trying to be reassuring
“See, nothing to be worried about”
G00.106: “Right. Got it!”
She than kicks the door open and while holding her shortened carbine yells
“Nobody move! We know you're conducting illegal operations, you're all under arrest!!!”
Smith and Lord Doros thought at the same time
If we survive I'm killing her myself
Lawless grins, produces a kukri from under he coat and stands in front of G00.106.
The people at the bar barely seem to notice and quickly return to their drinks and talks.
Smith and Lord Doros reluctantly drew their pulse pistols, enter the bar and stood by their colleague.
Smith: “When we get back, if we get back, we need to talk about your infiltration skills”
G00.106: “Why?”
Before smith or Lord Doros could answer, or shoot her, the door in the back opens.
Big Vinny, with Tony in tow, appear.
Smith: What the Hell, a Noradon... Don!?
He seems very calm and he speaks softly as if to an old friend's kid he's trying to explain a complicated notion to.
“What, if may ask, is the reason for this loud and quite frankly disrespectful scene in this, my humble establishment?”
G00.106: “We know what you're doing and you're going to prison, if we don't kill you right now that is!”
Vinny undisturbed
“I find such a thing rather difficult without any evidence and for any threat against my person”
Vinny snaps his fingers
Half the bar draws weapons and Tony gets in front of his boss, the infiltration team is now outnumbered five to one
Vinny: “You will find it a... Difficult task”
Smith was curious, if he was going to die today he just had to ask
“Okay, what's with the outfit?”
Vinny, positively beaming
“You like it? I modelled it after Tony Montanas's suit in Scarface”
Smith, now less curious and more confused
“The movie?”
Vinny: “Yes, we like your “mafia”, quite a novel idea”
Lawless: “Yeah well, organize crime is nothing new and even if you get rid of us more will come”
Vinny: “Crime? What crime?”
G00.106: “You rigged the War Games and make bets on them, my sisters called me and told me all about it!”
Vinny got in front of Tony, he was frowning
“Did she tell you we were actually fixing the events?”
G00.106 seemed a lot less confident all of a sudden
“Well not in so many words, no”
The rest of the team looked at her and than at each-other
Vinny: “We have a group of ex-military professionals analyze the strategies of the teams and a Krush run the odds, than we place bets on events where the margin of error matches the betting spread”
Smith: “So you aren't the ones hacking the Games?”
Vinny genuinely surprised
“The Games are getting hacked!? Well, we have nothing to do with that, we're just honest mafiosy”
Smith still concerned and very aware of the multitude of guns pointed in their direction.
“You do know they're the bad guys right?”
Vinny: “Of course but that's because they break the law”
G00.106: “Ha! Like you don't”
Smith came to a horrible realization
“Lawless could you run a quick background check on the people here for outstanding warrants”
Lawless closed her eyes for a second, smiled awkwardly and sheathed her kukri.
“No criminal records, not even a ticket and they have permits for those guns”
Lord Doros: “It seems we made a mistake”
Vinny: “Quite so but don't worry, this was exhilarating! Rocco Two Hands had been itching for a reason to draw his guns”
Vinny waved at Rocco, who was standing behind Smith
Smith looked back expecting a Noradon with only two arms but what he saw was a Noradon drone with all of his arms and a backpack with another set of four mechanical ones allowing him to hold eight guns total, all aimed at his head.
Smith: “Rocco TWO hands?”
Vinny: “It's short for Two Sets of Hands, alright fellows put the hardware away, you're scaring the tourists”
At this the entire bar sat down and no one even looked at the four who now awkwardly sheathed and holstered weapons before leaving.
Vinny as he waves them good bye
“Arividerchi!”
The four walked in silence for a while until Lawless spoke
“This never happened, agreed?”
No one said anything, there was no need.
On the way back to Commonwealth Law Lord Doros got a message on his datapad
“We have a new mission”
****************************** Lawless was spectating the survival event of the games in the cafeteria.
We didn't find the culprits, we didn't even find how they did it... Thou given how they could have done much worse than add random shit I guess we should consider ourselves lucky.
A/O had joined the other VIPs, they were curious about how things would turn out.
He approached in his holographic avatar, a small crystal cube with a single leaf inside it.
“Greetings Lawless, are you enjoying the Games?”
Lawless: “Yes, kinda”
A/O: “Is there something not to your liking? I could modify the templates further”
Lawless stopped looking at the screen and turned to the floating cube
“I'm sorry, modify the templates further?”
The cube floated up and down, trying to imitate a nod
“Yes, we found the games too easy to predict, so we added semi-random events to make sure the Games remained interesting”
Lawless, was at a loss for words an entity that wanted to boil down all the universe to a single equation had somehow hacked into the Games to “spice things up”
She mulled over a few words, a couple of ideas and just... Gave up, they hadn't hurt anyone and at least they showed an interest. She resumed watching the screen.
“Just out of curiosity, are there any modifications to the current event?”
A/O: “Yes, in the next 12 seconds the tectonic plates where the teams are situated will begin to move”
Lawless: “An earthquake?”
A/O: “Correct”
Lawless: “... During the cooking portion of the event?”
A/O: “Is that a problem?”
Screaming and some really ingenious curses can be heard from the screen as holo projections of the teams catch fire, fall face first into their food or right into their makeshift cauldrons.
Lawless shrugs
“I guess not”
****************************** Captain Grace was on a mission, she was stalking a beautiful Va'sh, a white angora kitten wearing a butlers' outfit!
She applied some more scent blockers, checked her ceramic second skin under armor, activated noise cancellers on her boots and a camo-suit to become virtually undetectable.
The kitten took a turn into a cargo hold, she followed slowly and when she felt the Va'sh couldn't possibly dodge her, she jumped!
The hologram disappeared and the door locked behind her.
Before she could look behind, someone had put a bracelet on her right hand and in the time it took her to look at it an identical one was put on her left hand.
Grace: “What is the meaning of this!”
Smith and Lord Doros simply pointed up, to a viewing window
Grace looked up and paled, Admiral Alexis, Warlord M'r'm, Alisia Black, Lady EliIi, 3.14, Ambassador Paul and the Uv Ambassador were looking down at her.
Alexis: “Grace you have gone too far, consider this an intervention”
He pushed a button and the holographic butler kitten re-appeared.
Alexis: “This is a hard light construct of a real Va'sh, you have only one thing to do, pet the kitty”
Grace was scared but she acquiesced, not that she had a lot of choice...
All those watching winced
Lord Doros and Smith made it in time to catch the “petting”
Lord Doros: I heard the Human expression “there is more than one way to skin a cat”, I guess one of them is to let Captain Grace pet it...
After a couple of minutes Captain Grace stopped
“It's not the saMEEEEEE!”
An electric shock shot out from one bracelet to the other
Grace: “What the Hell was that!”
Admiral Alexis: “That was a mild shock, you will get hit by one every time you pet the Va'sh too hard”
Grace: “Mild shock!? Are you kidding me?”
Alexis, now looking quite angry
“No, this is no joke, now Pet. The. Kitty!”
A few hours and several thousand volts later
Captain Grace looked rough, her ponytail had come undone, actually quite a bit of her hair had curled and some of it was smoking.
She had a weird twitch on her left eye and as far as Admiral Alexis could tell she stopped blinking a while ago...
Alexis: “See, that wasn't so bad?”
Captain Grace in a monotone voice
“Yes, not so bad”
Warlord M'rm'n felt generous and removed his tricorne hat and offered his head to the Captain.
“Here”
Captain Grace hesitated but ultimately pet the Va'sh head, very gently
M'rm'n: “That was nice”
Captain Grace than began twitching uncontrollably and fell to the ground, hugging her knees
“pet the kitty, pet the kitty, pet the kitty...”
Everyone stared
Eventually Lady EliIi felt the need to say out loud what everyone was thinking
“We might have gone too far”
Warlord M'rm'n shrugged
“She got her hands on the Emperor nephew last week, the video of today's intervention should be enough for him to call the hit off”
Admiral Alexis looked at the Va'sh with a mixture of shock and anger
“You're kidding right?”
The Va'sh grinned and Admiral Alexis chose to assume it was a joke, Alisia Black knew better however...
Captain Grace spent a few days in the infirmary of her own ship and is now famous, rather than infamous, with Va'shs throughout known space!
The way she gives the softest pets and how she goes completely catatonic after has made her quite popular...

(COMPLETED)(100/100) TCoE has a part about personalizing spells and also has a d10 magic theme table. These don’t effect mechanics, just for cosmetic reasons like a farmer origined spell caster can cast Magic Missile that look like chickens floating. Google “magic theme table tasha” for a better understanding. Lets build a d100 table for these kinds of magic themes:

d100 Magic Themes (100/100)

1. Various kinds of snakes and serpent patterns accompanied by a hissing sound.
   
2. Skulls, skeletons, gravestones, gargoyles and ravens with dark gray and violet colors accompanied by a scent of decay.
   
3. Faces of personas from all ages, races, genders and backgrounds with a fading scream sound.
   
4. Axes, logs, carved wood, dry leaves or charcoal and ash accompanied by the scent of freshly cut wood or smoke.
   
5. Bees... everywhere. Stings, honey, beeswax, honeycomb with yellow and black colors accompanied by a sweet sweet smell.
   
6. Duck themed: spells with sounds are always quacks and all spells look a bit duck shaped. ArcaneSpellbook
   
7. For a bard’s interpretation: hard rock laser show. ArcaneSpellbook
   
8. A chaotic messy theme with lots of clashing colors and harsh sounds. ArcaneSpellbook
   
9. Symbiotic oozes of various colours and forms appears and turns into desired spells of yours.
   
10. Bubbles. The bubbles can assemble to create things, things disappear in a myriad of bubbles, circle around your target for non-damage spells, popping bubbles for AOE. IkaTheFox
    
11. Around a single monochromatic animal. Choose a colour and an animal. Using your magic makes tiny versions of that animal appearing around you, gather around your target, or assemble to create new things. Everything dispels by bursting into these little monochromatic animals. They can even make soft sounds or chimes when moving. IkaTheFox
    
12. Thin smoke and fog that does not obscure vision. Typically in the form of spirals, waves, balls or vaguely straight lines. IkaTheFox
    
13. Negative. The spells just make the world behind them look like it's negative. SevenHassall
    
14. Candy land. Everything is sticky sweet. Ropes of licorice. Cotton Candy fog. Syrup goo on the floor. Fireballs flavored with cinnamon (atomic fireballs). Everything is candy. Willy Wonka style. PutridMeatPuppet
    
15. Offerings: Scattered across your body are offerings to different spirits of the land. With a short phrase, you toss an offering into the air, where a small spirit manifests and catches it. It glows brightly as it consumes the offering, then dashes to the spell target to create the effect. The spirit itself may let out an excited yelp. CoolNerdStuff
    
16. Glass spheres. Every spell starts as a glass sphere being palmed, juggled, thrown, rolled or shattered. wyverndarkblood
    
17. Orbital Crystals: All magic is cast from crystals that float near you. Spells cast look a lot like a bullet hell game. You can even flavor the projectiles to be crystal themed. Random_Jojo
    
18. Blades. From daggers to greatswords, falchions to scimitars, bastardswords to fruit knives accompanied by metallic slashing sounds.
    
19. Traveler. Horses, carts, horseshoes, bags, boots and anything related to traveling with the noise of a cart and the excitement of traveling.
    
20. Blood. Bloody shapes ranging from shades of red accompanied by the sharp scent of iron.
    
21. A hammer and an anvil forging, iron and lava colors with the sound of the hammer.
    
22. Fireworks. Everything whistles and fizzles, ending in a shower of colorful sparks. bardicly-inclined
    
23. Holographic spell screen that is scrolled to pick a spell and makes a notification sound when a spell is casted.
    
24. Spellslinger smoking pipe: puff smoke for illusions, conjuration, divinations Deep breath for fire spells as the herbs embers. Ghepip
    
25. Fisherman that uses a fishing rod as his quarterstaff/spell focus, everything is either mist, fog, water, waves. Conjuration could be sea creatures. Ghepip
    
26. Farmer where everything is what his favorite pet/animal was associated with. Ghepip
    
27. Bard, but he is more into poems and not music. So his magic manifests as the sentences of his poems Healing spells would be the literal sentences of love letters that sew together the slashing wound or surround bludgeon/piercing wounds. Ghepip
    
28. Shadow sorcerer, where the source of the magic isn't you, but the nearest shadow. The bigger spell the bigger shadow. The shadows could temporary warp away and become the spell, and then return shortly after. Ghepip
    
29. Breathing practices and controlling the blood flow by that, various inhaling and exhaling techniques accompanied by a bunch of yoga moves.
    
30. You have a sketchbook and bunch of colorful pencils, you draw the effect of the spell you want to cast and becomes real as you draw.
    
31. Climate, weather, earth, flora and fauna of a the caster's honetown inspires the appearence of the spells.
    
32. One certain color related to caster's appearence dominates the spells.
    
33. Your spells effect the minds of others, anything you cast has no external visual effect but mentally effect the target.
    
34. Mandala’s that radiate/grow in size and complexity as the spells are cast at higher levels (Magic Missle May form multiple small Mandala’s along the arm or palm that launches like a tiny Artillery shot; Come of Cold could make a Mandala that sprouts from the palm and rotates as it expands and trust from blue to white- once white it projects the cold; Mage Hand could form a Mandala at the caster’s wrist and turn their whole hand purple, the way they move that hand controls the Mage Hand’s movements). FlynnXa
    
35. Fungal Growths/Spores that emanate the desired effect (Acid Bolt conjures a Acidic Mushroom that gets slingshotted at the target by pulling and releasing its stalk; Witch Bolt conjures Staticly Charger Mushrooms on the Targets Limbs that shock them each turn). FlynnXa
    
36. Book Casting so that you could just throw the book at them, read the words from the page which become the projectiles to hit, maybe the words lift from the page and onto a person’s body to enhance or heal them. FlynnXa
    
37. Food so that cauldrons of sips pour spells down overhead, or flaming cookies are flung like disks, and a bread sword gets conjured up to slay a foe. FlynnXa
    
38. Mirrors could be used to shoot spells from their surface, conjure forth entities by using heir reflections, act as shields/barriers, and dispel other spells or more. FlynnXa
    
39. Fabrics could me used to literally weave the spell into its desired form, or to shape enchantments, cursed scarves or knitted bandages that magically heal. FlynnXa
    
40. Paint could be hastily splattered on a spare piece of parchment in the image of the spell and then burned or presented to cast the spell its resembles. FlynnXa
    
41. Mathematical equations written in the air, numbers, symbols, calculations unique to each spell accompanied by a constant chalk on the blackboard sound.
    
42. Volume equates to damage - If a magic missile hits and does 2 damage, it makes an almost silent fizzle. If it hits with a 5 it sounds like a hammer blow. amintowords
    
43. Opposites - you become warmer when you cast an ice spell, aggressive if you cast a friendship spell, etc. amintowords
    
44. Elaborate gestures - to cast a spell the player and hence the character has to mime what happens. This could be three flicks of the finger for a magic missile, or a slow wavy dance for a fog related spell. amintowords
    
45. The red glowing energy of the spell originates from the ground at the caster’s feet, flows up through the body, then emanates from the caster’s hands. Dirt, dust clouds, or small rocks are left behind after a spell ends. The caster’s hands are caked in dirt after casting a spell. SayethWeAll
    
46. Minerals and types of stone (ores, gems, ect.) that act as a foci for spells based on the materials characteristics. For example, hematite for rusting grasp, pyrite for enchantments made to deceive, cinnabar for poison based spells, micas for glitterstorm or heat resistance, or galena for spells that make things denser. supersnes1
    
47. Spellcraft cards where the hand being played dictates the spell and its potency. Practitioners experienced in this style eventually learn to stack the deck in their favor. supersnes1
    
48. Scents (perfumes, flowers, cooking food, brimstone, refuse, oral, ect.) accompany and drive the spells. supersnes1
    
49. Puppets (string, finger, sock, ect.) are made to enact a scene or conduct the verbal and somatic components of the spell. supersnes1
    
50. The Big One. Whether you're a human with a huge crystal ball or a gnome with a normal one, you gotta carry that thing above your head in two hands. You have it up to cast spells and it glows very dramatically. TheMightyFishBus
    
51. Thinking With Portals. You use magic portals to essentially summon the effects of your spells from other planes, rather than casting them traditionally. 'Well your honour, technically I didn't cast fireball. I just opened up a rift in space time that a fireball happed to come out of.'. TheMightyFishBus
    
52. Spells are flavored to essentially be a kobold inventor’s attacks. Dancing lights are fireflies kept in a jar, poison spray is a skunk in a cage, absorb elements is catching the attack in an iron pot. Fabricate is a bunch of ants working really fast, blur is a flower that makes those who smell it see double, and jump is just makeshift spring boots. bao-and-boba
    
53. Perform tribal kobold dances and recite ancient draconic poetry and hymns and the magic takes effect. bao-and-boba
    
54. Barbarian Rage. You rage in different ways and at different levels and you think you are a barbarian, yet your rage seems to create magic.
    
55. Egyptian gods and goddesses, pyramids, sand, hieroglyphs accompanied by hot desert winds.
    
56. Your previous lives as various personas helps you cast your spells. You summon a spectral form related to the spell you cast from your past, they mimic your gestures and words but the spell effects comes from the persona, not you.
    
57. Bats, wolves, vampires, shadows, blood and pointy theeth accompanied by the sound of the blood in veins.
    
58. Celestial theme: spells float around you in orbit before being flung towards their target, give off trails of solar wind and auroras, take the form of planets and meteors, etc. starquinn
    
59. Keys: spells are cast by unlocking untethered doors that float near the caster, unleashing fireballs on enemies or dousing allies in healing water. starquinn
    
60. Visiual glitches, 404 errors, lagged effects, green binary code runinh on black surface, wrong colors shapes and other many various glicthes accompanied by sound effect glitches.
    
61. When you cast spells you are meditating or doing other various spiritual gestures and all your spells comes out of your chakras as energy first and shaped into desired spell.
    
62. Candles and candle flames seems to appear in your spells even though it doesnt cause a fire damage always, during rituel spells you are surrounded by hundreds of candles melting accompanied by the smell of melting wax.
    
63. Wine, wine bottles, wine glasses; red, white and rose accompanied by the smell of wine
    
64. Cats, big cats and small cats, lions and panthers, sometimes even tabaxis, claws, paws and whiskers accompanied by a meow sound.
    
65. Geometry, triangles, hexes, cubes, dodechahedrons, of various colors and patterns.
    
66. Alchemist's items, veils, tubes, liquids and powders accompanied by the sound of boiling potions.
    
67. Clear nights sky, stars, planets, zodiac signs, star clusters and astrological symbols accompanied by the sound of a falling star.
    
68. Viking ships, runes, norse symbols, viking shields and weapons, ale, ice and snow accompanied by freezing winds.
    
69. Reptiles, lizard tails, crocodile scales and turtle shells accompanied by shades of green.
    
70. Gold, silver and copper coins, various goods to sell and shipping carts accompanied by a conbersation of bargaining.
    
71. Cowboy hat and shoes, horses, lassos, sherif stars and a clock tower hitting 12.00 accompanied by the soundtracks of old cowboy movies.
    
72. Dinosaurs of various kinds, flying ones, walking ones, herbivore and carnivor ones, and also biting ones, an erupting volcano, an approaching meteor accompanied by wild roars.
    
73. Baloons, unicycles, juggling balls, decks of cards, clown make-ups, show animals and a circus tent accompanied by laughter and clapping.
    
74. Chess pieces, checkered surfaces, black and white colors accompanied by the sound of a shifting chess piece.
    
75. Light, prisms, reflections, refraction and rainbows with blinding sparkles.
    
76. Steam, steam powered engines, trains, hot air baloons, zeplines, running mechanisms and turning gears accompanied by a tinkering sound.
    
77. Ships, mermaids, eye patches, rudder, pirate hats, hooks and a crew accompanied by pirate slang and an "Arghh" sound.
    
78. During casting material components rot and turn into ash, somatic components has a ghost-like ensuant shadows that also slowly rots and turn into ash, and verbal componants creates a black fume that caster breathes and it rots and turns into ash as well.
    
79. A vegans diet, various vegetables and fruits, plants and roots accompanied by happy animal sounds.
    
80. A voodoo dollas a spell focus that represents the target of spells, spells are casted on the doll, yet also effects the target.
    
81. Words longest scroll that includes hundreds of thousands of arcane symbols, caster reads the spells on the scroll and seems to find the right arcane symbol every time.
    
82. Caster rolls actual in-game dice for attack and damage rolls and spells themed with 3D dice shapes and numbers accompanied by click clack sound.
    
83. A blind eye with a monocle, pure arcane energy is channeled from the eye, first hits the monocle and is altered into the desired spell.
    
84. A small dark wood puzzle box with various marks, buttons, small levers and discs on it; caster plays with the box, sets it for the desired spell and spell effect occurs when caster opens the box.
    
85. Effects from cartoons that is not from the real world, spells seem to be illustrated by a cartoon artist. victorianchan
    
86. Racial flavours from the history, culture, appearence, abilities, alignment and habits of the caster's race. Ghepip
    
87. Low level spells has bigger visual effects but smaller impact, yet higher level spells have smaller visual effect but bigger impact. Ghepip
    
88. Fire and heat, steam, flames and blaze, carterizing wounds and increasing body heat, decrease the temperature on the burnmarks. Ghepip
    
89. Water and ice to cool wounds, ice crystals appear to stitch them, illusions are mists and mirrages caused by water evaporating, necromancy byblood bending or just have water enter the muscles, expand the water into ice and have the muscle subtract. Ghepip
    
90. Earth, living insects, dirt and stone, exploding flying fireants, lotus swarm that produce lightning, leaches and maggots, honey, stiches by biting bullet ants for healing etc. Ghepip
    
91. Birds and ornithology, diving falcons, flying humming birds' colorful patterns, vultures and other carnivorus birds, quail eggs, feathers, beaks accompanied by bird songs. Ghepip
    
92. Air. Winds, gases, manipulating currents, blowing heat and cold, causing rain, hail, snow thunder etc. accompanied by wind sound.
    
93. Clay Golem. Caster shapes an amount of clay to make a little clay golem that has one task, to cast the desired spell. Golem digests the material components and mimic its master to complete somatic and verbal components, the golem is turned into dust after it completes the casting.
    
94. Mobile games. Angry birds, subway surfers, jetpack joyride, fruit ninja and many other classic mobile games accompanied by their soundtracks.
    
95. Archery. Arrows of various colours and types of energies, bows, arrow heads, quivers, feathers accompanied by the sound of an arrow piercing the air. shamanshaman123
    
96. The caster is saddled with crushing debt and in order to pay it off has had to sell ad space during his casting routine. Before or after casting, they recite a message from their sponsor. A token payment then drops from the ether. shamanshaman123
    
97. Stories of the acts of gods, heroes, villains, and others told to illicit the magical effect (think Dark Souls miracles). supersnes1
    
98. You perform a "magic" act to cast your spells. Can range from card tricks, puling creatures out of a hat, cutting other in half, etc. supersnes1
    
99. The gambler. Deck of cards, hearts, spades, clubs, diamonds, roleplaying dices, tokens, coins and everything related to gambling.
    
100. Lovecraftian Horror. Cthulhu mythos, the fear of unknown, eldritch creatures, nightmarish deities, and all horrors one cannot describe or envision.
     

PROLOGUE(TLDR): I’m one of the many PCT 2020 NOGOs. My naivety and hubris made me embark on a beautiful but testing journey that took me 816km(507mi) from the sandy shores of the Atlantic Ocean through the heart of the Pyrenees crossing France, Spain and Andorra to finally arrive at the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea. The hardest 23 days I’ve ever done didn’t so much test my body but shake my mind. After the report follows an extensive gear section including a cottage gear jacket which is the first of its kind. But first some facts and stats to put it all in perspective.
What: The Haute Route Pyrenees (Pocket Guide Version)
When: 1st - 24th of September 2020
Total Time: 22 days and 22 hours (includes one zero)
Distance: total: 816km(507mi) / daily average: 35,6km(22,2mi) / daily max: 45,78km(28,45mi)
Vertical Gain: total: 49336m(161864ft) / daily average: 2153m(7063ft) / daily max: 2880m(9449ft)
Route: Map with waypoints of the HRP
Photos: 77 Pictures
Gear: Spoiler: 10.75lbs including a mirrorless zoom lens camera setup
Instagram: I’m posting photos with additional info on how climate change is affecting the Pyrenees. Surprise…it's quite severe. Follow along to find out more.
Strava: My daily itinerary including some clutch camp spots
Conditions: Daily highs at the start were around 23°C(73,5°F). Daily lows towards the end were around 6°C(43°F). Coldest nights were around 2°C(35,5°F). Very mild overall. Mostly sunny. Some days completely foggy, especially at altitude. A few outliers that brought in heavy winds coupled with rain. It hailed for a few minutes once. Luckily missed all the snow which started falling a couple days after I passed certain sections at the end of my trip.
Additional information: The HRP is an unofficial route which crosses the Pyrenees and can be hiked either West- or Eastbound. The trailheads are Hendaye, France (Atlantic Ocean) and Banyuls, France (Mediterranean Sea). The HRP has some sections in common with the GR10, GR11 and GR12. There is a Cicerone guide available. I chose to follow the Pocket Guide route by Paul „Whiteburn“ Atkinson. His guide keeps higher and crosses more Cols (passes). For every difficult section and Col Paul usually has an alternate which is easier and passes through more valleys for additional resupplies that should be considered in bad weather. At this point I have to thank Paul, who put an incredible amount of time and knowledge into his guide and provides it to us completely free of charge. Thanks Paul! If you are ever in Hamburg I’ll buy you a beer. I chose to do the whole route without any alternates and stay high. On his website you can find GPX files for all sections and PDFs for both directions with detailed route descriptions and resupply options.
For navigation I only used GAIA Premium with all French and Spanish IGN maps downloaded. This would eventually bite me in the ass. But more on that in Chapter 3 of my report.
The trip report will not be structured by days but by sections between resupplies.
Feel free to skip any part. I know this trip report is way too long and I guess it’s more for me to remember. But maybe you’ll find my journey interesting enough or use it as a reference for your own future Pyrenees hike.
If you have any comments or questions, ask away.
TRIP REPORT
Chapter 0: Hamburg - Hendaye
Wait, doesn’t the HRP start in Hendaye? Yeah well, bear with me for a minute. The adventure started before I even arrived at the trailhead. I wanted to reduce my carbon footprint a bit and chose to take the train down to Hendaye from Hamburg, Germany. The whole journey should have taken 14,5 hours instead of 5 hours by plane and a quick bus ride. Well, the German and French train companies had other plans and decided it would take me 30,5 hours instead.
I had been waiting inside my train in Hamburg for 30 minutes before the conductor announced that the train had some defect and would not be taking me down to Paris. Good start… I quickly rebooked my journey to Paris but had to rebook my train from Paris to Hendaye directly in Paris.
F*ck it. Let’s give it a shot. Little did I know that the train down to Hendaye had already been cancelled by the French.
The next train thankfully took me to Paris. While trying to find the metro station some guy on his bike abruptly stopped and started talking to me in french and pointing at my back. Once it was clear that I was oblivious to what he was saying he thankfully switched to English. He asked me if I was an ultralight backpacker and showed me his X-Pac pack on his back that a friend of his had made. I was carrying an X-Pac pack I made as well. So we got to talking and I told him that I was going to be stranded in Paris for the night and didn’t have a place to stay yet. He generously offered for me to stay with him and his mom who he was visiting. We exchanged numbers and decided to meet up later as I had to rebook my ticket for the next morning.
The three of us spent a lovely evening having dinner and talking about all things life. Thanks Ulysse for approaching a stranger on the street. I appreciate your friendship very much and I hope we get to hike together soon! Hiking and ultralight has yet again proven how well it connects people.
The rest of the “approach“ went smoothly and I arrived the next day at 12:30pm in Hendaye.
​
Chapter 1: Hendaye - Lescun - Day 1-5
Before starting I obviously had to take a dip in the Atlantic Ocean. The water was lukewarm. Would the water be as pleasant on the Mediterranean Sea three weeks later? I wasn’t sure if I’d find out… After being quite excited for the trip something shifted two days prior to leaving Hamburg. A tight feeling in my chest settled in. I lost all excitement. I didn’t want to go anymore. This feeling would not go away for the first couple of days out on trail. I never had that problem before on any of my other multi-week trips…
My pack was way too heavy. Last year my kit was hovering around the 7lbs mark but after adding a few luxuries and finally settling on a proper camera it was more around 10lbs. Doesn’t make a big difference to me. But I really screwed myself on the food I took for the first few days. Unfortunately, I’m really lazy when it comes to planning my food for trips so I went no-cook. I went to the grocery store an hour before it closed the night before leaving for Hendaye. I just grabbed some stuff I thought I’d like not looking at the g/Kcal food lists I actually had from past trips. I grabbed two heavy-ass glass jars containing PB and Hummus. What was I thinking!?! Glass jars…
I thought the food I bought would last me 3 days… It lasted 6.
Okay, let’s start walking!
Starting at 2pm, I left Hendaye behind me pretty quickly. The vert didn’t wait to introduce itself. Right away you do some steep ascents on forest roads and then out of nowhere you are bushwhacking through some thick brush. The vegetation is very lush and green in the Basque Country. Water was scarce though and my 2 litre capacity was depleting rather quickly in the heat. The first time I managed to find water was around 7pm from a kettle pond. I threw in two of my Micropur tablets and continued the ascent up to Larrun. For the first time I was close to 1.000m(3.300ft) above sea level. After the descent south of Larrun I found a nice meadow. I imposed one restriction on myself for this hike. No night hiking like I usually ended up doing. I just didn’t want to miss anything.
The night was mild and clear. I decided to cowboy camp. A decision I regretted due to all the horses with bells around their necks grazing around me. Whenever I heard a bell come closer I’d jump up and look around me. I was scared shitless of being trampled to death. That would not be the only night I was accompanied by that fear but the last I cowboy camped…
The next two days were more of the same, occasionally passing through a little village of ancient stone-walled houses. I met a dutch hiker, Gun, who was carrying a ÜLA Catalyst. He was a bit skeptical regarding the ultralight approach. I shared my troubles getting into the hike and not being in the right mindset. He knew the feeling and said I should give it a couple more days and hopefully find my groove. I was skeptical but what was the alternative? The logistics of getting back home were more complicated than continuing on. But I think the main reason I went on at that stage was because I had shared my plans of hiking the HRP with so many friends and family… I couldn’t admit defeat, especially since I was in good shape, doing 40km(25mi)+ days right from the get-go.
Lost in conversation, we made some navigational errors but eventually arrived at a decent flat spot to pitch our mids (he was carrying a Duomid). I was happy for the company and I think the main reason I had trouble getting into the hike was the thought of being out there for three weeks… alone. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve done more hikes solo than with friends but at that point in time I wanted to share the beautiful, fun and hard times with somebody, and I knew the hike I had planned would have a minimum of that. That night was only one of two in which I camped with someone else…
The next morning Gun and I said our farewells and I grinded on. Yes, it was a grind these first couple of days.
I passed more bells than I cared to hear. I kept thinking this must be the soundtrack of the Basque Country. Ha, how wrong I was. It was the soundtrack of the Pyrenees! I’m not sure if I saw more shepherds or hikers during my trip.
Despite my mental state during the day I was a very happy camper when I decided on my camp spot for the night. Five stars! I sat there, watching the sunset, overlooking the peaks of the Basque Country… smiling. Is this what I needed to turn it all around?
I was actually kind of looking forward to Day 4. Lots of vert and climbing my first minor peak at 2000m(6560ft) above sea level. But Pic d’Orhy would not come easy. First I had to tackle a pretty steep climb and scramble up some ridges. I was exhausted and during a tough scramble looking down a cliff I encountered a german couple who were day hiking and had just come from Pic d’Orhy. It was quite funny how I just started blabbing on without pause as soon as I had people to talk to. They were lovely and after sharing my hiking plans they gave me all the food they had left. I appreciated the fresh apple the most. Thanks Kati and Michi!
Day 5 was the day everything finally came together and I started to feel the trail. After descending down to Refugio Belagua I had a quick Tortilla (the first thing I bought after starting in Hendaye).
The following section will always stay with me. The sun was breaking through the leaves of a magical forest that opened up to a pine tree splattered granite landscape. It was one of the most beautiful sights I got to experience up to this point in my life. My enormous grin just wouldn’t leave my face. No chance. Arriving on the top of Col d’Anaye and looking over my shoulder I knew I didn’t want to be anywhere else in that moment. Crazy how nature’s beauty can totally change your perspective.
On the descent to Lescun I used my 6th and final Micropur tablet of the trip. It seems my confidence went up in every department in these hike defining hours.
After a quick road walk I arrived in Lescun.
​
Chapter 2: Lescun - Gavernie - Day 5-9
Lescun is a cute little village with a small super market that has a pretty limited selection. I quickly stocked up for the next stretch to Gavernie and got in another one and a half hours of hiking. I was never really sure where I would camp the following night. My itinerary usually evolved during the day depending on the terrain and the miles I managed. I got to a Cabane (unstaffed shelter) which was being used by a shepherdess I scared to death when I looked inside. I apologized and asked her if she’d mind me camping on the meadow next to the Cabane. She didn’t and I was glad when another shepherd arrived a few minutes later to hopefully rid her of any fear that was left about some weirdo arriving unusually late to camp right next to her.
I left early in the morning and embarked on a day that was dominated by clouds and fog. I managed to get above the fog for ten minutes which opened up the view to mountain peaks piercing through a plush white blanket of clouds. It didn’t feel like something real at all.
At Ibon de Estanés I passed a fellow ultralighter with a simple hola. I think he was wearing a KS Liteskin pack. Still kicking myself for not introducing myself.
Down in Candanchu I had my first proper town food. A very average Pizza. I’m only mentioning Candanchu as it’s one of the many deserted ski resort villages which look extremely off-putting and depressing during the summer. Funny to think that these sterile artificial places only come to life a couple of months a year. And seeing how climate change doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon, will surely suffer in the years to come and maybe turn into permanent ghost towns.
While eating I requested the weather forecast from my dad, a hobby meteorologist. Since he was tracking me online through my Spot he always provided me with very accurate predictions for the next few days. I was always in the know and trusted his expertise. Who needs an InReach if you have your own personal weatherman?
After some road walking I once more climbed into the familiar fog. Due to the lack of views I started to jog down the occasional descents. No point to linger. Trying to fall asleep I just thought to myself how many beautiful landscapes I probably missed due to the fog. But you win some you lose some.
I was completing one week on trail the following day.
I’ve been cruising up to this point and getting a bit cocky. I was already calculating that if I keep up my current pace I will probably finish in 18 days instead of my roughly projected 21 days.
Little did I know that the “real“ Pyrenees were just about to start.
And I was definitely not prepared for what the HRP had in store for me that day.
Heading up to Col d’Arrious I had one of a few conversations with a shepherd. They are quite interesting people and come from all walks of life. Arriving on top of the pass the wind hit me hard. I quickly put on my wind shirt and headed down to Refuge d’Arrémoulit where I had a serrano sandwich with an omelette. While I was enjoying the view of the neighbouring lake a Bonelli eagle passed 15m(50ft) over my head. A rare sight. Could life get much better? I’m not sure, but it could definitely get much worse...
After my break I started to gain elevation again and headed over Col du Palas only to be greeted by a huge boulder field. Keep in mind, there is no trail at all at this point. Occasionally there were a few Cairns scattered around which didn’t really help to define a clear path. After scrambling down for a bit I had to head up those boulders to Port du Lavedan. This is where I made my first major mistake of the trip. I was kind of eyeballing the direction and not really checking GAIA. Well, due to my navigational error I missed the pass by a good 10m(33ft) and climbed up a small ridge I thought was the pass. Once on top I looked over to the other side I had to descend.
“WHAT THE F*CK!?! What the hell is this Whiteburn guy thinking to send people over this crap without advising them to bring some climbing equipment. No, don’t blame him, what where YOU thinking following some made up route from a guy on the internet. JESUS CHRIST. This is f * cked!“
I looked back - yeah no chance I was going back down the way I came. Not much better than what lay before me. Whiteburn mentioned that this section had three major Cols increasing in technical difficulty. This wasn’t one of the three but I thought it was the first and the thought scared me shitless. How was I going to survive the other two IF I made it down this one alive!?! Adrenaline rushed through my body. Focused like I’ve never been before I slowly moved my hands towards some slightly protruding rock to find any grip. Then looking for a decent foot hold. It took me a good five minutes of intense sweat to go down the worst part. I wasn’t going to do something like that again anytime soon, I thought to myself.
Well, I totally would. Kids, triple check your navigation before deciding to climb some stupidly steep ridge.
Not long after the worst part I saw the pass I was supposed to take a couple meters to my right. I was alleviated and angry for making a mistake that could have ended quite badly.
Those five minutes had depleted my energy to zero. I was shaking. That day I had my second shortest hiking day of the whole trip.
After a good nights sleep I was ready to tackle the three technical Cols of that section: Col de Cambales, Col d’Arratille and Hourquette d’Oussoue.
The experience from the day prior boosted my confidence substantially which made those cols a breeze to do and made me enjoy the wide mountain landscapes a lot more. I took my usual hour brake in the early afternoon and washed my shirt and socks. After the last col I tried to get as close to Gavernie, my next resupply. I ended up staying in my first Cabane of the trip which was just a simple rectangle stone hut. Nothing inside. I wanted to get up as early as possible and break down camp quickly so I could arrive early in Gavernie and not lose too much time in town. I managed to arrive around 10am the next day.
​
Chapter 3: Gavernie - Bernasque - Day 9-12
Gavernie is a little mountain town that is the hub for a lot of hiking loops in the area. It has a small outdoor shop you could definitely get a pack or shoes if you have trouble with your equipment.
I headed straight to a restaurant. I needed to charge my power bank to 100% and that would probably take 3 hours. With a quick 30min charge during my pizza break in Candanchu it had survived 8 days without charging.
I got to talking with two hikers that were sitting at the table next to me. They had started the Cicerone version of the HRP 33 days prior from the Mediterranean Sea. From what I could gather the Cicerone version is more in line with the alternates Whiteburn suggests for the Pocket Guide version.
After writing some post cards and stocking up on food at the small super market I had a big steak with fries and a fried egg.
I left Gavernie at 2pm with renewed energy. After the steep descent down Hourquette d’Alans the valley is accompanied by a nice stream that leads into the Lac de Gloriettes dam. Many of the turquoise lakes in the Pyrenees are actually reservoirs or hydroelectric power generators. It takes a bit away from the magic sometimes.
Right around Gloriettes a drizzle started to build. The fog from the days prior was back. And you know when you miss that moment when you should have put on your rain jacket but instead hope that it stops to rain? Yeah, that was me.
Completely soaked I looked at my map to make out potential campsites for the night. I made out a Cabane I should reach right around sunset.
Too bad it was being renovated and bolted shut. Luckily I saw Cabane des Aires a half hour up ahead on my route. I picked up the pace and moved on. I would regret my decision on many levels in the hours to come. I should’ve just set up my tent…
I was hiking a bit above 2000m(6550ft) and the fog was getting thicker to the point that I could only see what was 5m(17ft) around me. Combine that with mostly grassy trails and you have a navigational nightmare on your hands. I was looking at GAIA non-stop and still getting off-course. It was getting pretty cold. I managed to arrive just in time before it got dark.
Exhausted I put on my headlamp to check out the little stone hut. Something moved in my peripheral vision. I moved my head back to where I thought I saw something.
“OH COME ON! REALLY!?“
A freaking mouse. I really didn’t want to deal with these little pests right now. I shooed the thing outside. As the huts’ steel door wouldn’t close I built a barrier out of wood pallets and a nose from a snowboard (how the hell did that get there?). The sleeping area was in the back of the room and thankfully half a meter elevated from the floor. I set up for the night, put my food right next to me and left the rest of my gear on the table. After climbing into my quilt I scanned the hut for unwanted critters again. F*CK! The mouse had brought a friend along… I conceded right then and there. There was no way I was keeping them outside and the night was about to get worse.
When I went to charge my phone nothing happened. I unplugged and plugged my phone back into the power bank a couple of times. Nothing. I was using a micro USB cable with a Lightning adapter. After testing the cable on my headlamp the culprit was obvious. I never trusted 3rd party accessories for the iPhone before. Why did I take this little piece of shit anyway?
My phone was at 7% battery and I had no way to charge it. How was I going to navigate out of this thick fog? I only had one choice: wake up early and head back down the mountain to an Auberge 6km(3,7mi) away and hope that someone was willing to sell me their cable. For that to happen I needed a phone for navigation or clear skies. I knew the general direction but there were so many turns and lakes separating me from my destination that I would likely get lost pretty quickly, especially without any visual orientation. I guess physical maps weren’t such a bad idea right now.
The night was obviously terrible. I was on edge hoping for my phone to survive until the next morning and the two mice were having a serious domestic fight all night long. I kept following them around the hut with my headlamp. I spent most of my headlamp battery during the trip looking for mice. Thankfully they stayed away from my food.
After barely sleeping I woke up the next morning to unchanged weather conditions. F*ck. Too afraid to check my battery during the night I unlocked my phone. 4%. Yes! I can make that work. I just need 40 minutes to get to the road that will take me to the Auberge. I packed up as quickly as I could and headed out praying for no further navigational f *ck ups on my end and more importantly a kind soul willing to part with their charging cable.
I lost the trail a couple of times but eventually managed to get to the road with 1% left.
Arriving at the parking lot of the Auberge I saw a young couple getting ready to head out for a day hike. I told them of my dilemma and hiking plans. I probably looked quite pathetic. But thankfully they had a spare cable. They weren’t willing to take my money though. Damn was I relieved. I hiked up the way I came and I started blabbing the same way I always did on this trip as soon as I had company.
This iPhone adapter debacle could have cost me a day or two. It scared me enough that I will probably always take separate brand name cables for the rest of my life.
Even though the new cable had given me some much needed mental energy the next climb up Col de la Sede took the energy right out of my legs. This was probably the most exhausting climb of the whole trip for me. No trail, just 60-70% degree slopes of grass for 400m of elevation gain.
Looking back, this was probably the hardest day physically for me. On top of the pass I had to cross some steep scree that made me slide down with every step and sharp rock just waiting to cut up my ankles. After that it got a bit less technical for a few kilometers, but the ascents didn’t stop.
At Lacs de Barroude I had a decision to make. Take the alternate down to Parzán for some easy hiking on the GR11 or head east another 10km (6.2mi) with 900m(3000ft)/-1050m(-3450ft) of vert for some technical ridge walking. I was completely depleted and it was already 4pm. At the same time I wanted to complete the prettiest and hardest route possible. Three snickers later I started climbing up the ridge anyway. Sometimes I’m just too stubborn for my own good. For the first time that day I wasn’t walking in complete fog. The clouds still gave me pause. I didn’t want to be caught in a lightning storm as there was no easy or quick way off the ridge. Half way through I started hearing thunder. I couldn’t place it though and didn’t see any lightning. I picked up my pace as much as you can while scrambling up and down a ridge I guess. For the night I was betting on a green spot on my map that looked rather flat looking at the elevation lines. I just had to get there. The ridge walking got more technical as I progressed, but the clouds stayed tame. I moved north off the ridge and got to my planned camping spot.
My bet had paid off. Five stars! My favourite camp spot of the trail overlooking the heart of the Pyrenees. It was the first and only night that was completely silent as well. No bells, no mice, no nothing. I slept like a baby.
But not even good sleep could restore my energy after Day 10’s events and very steep and technical off-trail hiking. And Day 11 had more of that in store for me.
Climbing up Port d’Ourdissétou on one of the rare maintained trails of the day I noticed that I couldn’t keep this up for much longer. I needed a proper break. I decided to take a zero at my next resupply in Bernasque. That was still one and a half days away though. Luckily the second half of the day was a bit easier until a late climb up Port d’Aygues Tortes and the descent down to Cabane Prat Caseneuve. After my last, rather unpleasant, Cabane experience I actually wanted to avoid all further ones. But Prat Caseneuve was a very nice one with a second storey and proper mattresses. My fear of bedbugs made me sleep on the floor, to the great bewilderment of the Frenchman I was sharing the Cabane with. I was realizing that the Gavernie-Bernasque section was probably the hardest of the whole HRP.
The next morning we got up at 6am and I headed out at first light. Sleeping inside to get up early was the right choice as I had a very hard day ahead of me. I was going to tackle two of the highest and most technical cols of the HRP: Col des Gourgs Blancs and Col Inférieur de Litérole. Both just under 3000m(9850ft). I had heard horror stories about Litérole from other hikers on trail and in online forums. Especially descending the east side, which I was going to do. I didn’t buy it though. The crap I had already done to this point was hard to top, in my opinion.
It was a very pretty day and after passing another storage reservoir I headed up Col des Gourgs Blancs. Navigating through huge boulders, following scattered cairns and scrambling up scree had become second nature. I was cruising through one of the hardest hiking the Pyrenees has to offer. Heading down I could see Lac du Portillon, another reservoir. I took a 45 minute lunch break at Refúge du Portillon and talked with some locals about barefoot ultramarathon training and dream races. The sun was warming up my cheeks. On to Col Inférieur de Litérole!
The climb up was steep and I made one bad choice in circumventing the snowfields by climbing further up some steep scree. Every step I took I triggered a rock slip. I tried heading down as quickly as possible. That was not fun at all. I continued on the edge of the snowfield. The last climb up Litérole was easy enough. Looking down the other side though I understood what everyone had been talking about. Daaaamn that was steep. It didn’t manage to faze me anymore though. The HRP had made me quite confident. I found my way down with a quick glissade into a scree field. What followed was the longest boulder hopping adventure of my life. Pure fun. I headed down the Remuñe valley. That’s where I took my favorite picture of the whole trail. After a long descent I hit the road that would take me to Bernasque. I asked two Spaniards from Barcelona for a ride. With our masks on and disinfected hands we headed down into the valley.
​
Interlude: Zero in Bernasque - Day 13
Bernasque is a picturesque village in the heart of the Spanish Pyrenees. Its village centre consists of beautiful stone buildings and a wide selection of hotels and restaurants. Two outdoor shops which offer everything you’d desire makes Bernasque a fully featured mountain hub for tourists.
After saying goodbye to my ride I headed to a one star hotel. Mid September is the end of the summer season for most Pyrenees tourism. That was my hotels last day and so they organized another hotel a few minutes away for my second night. I had to buy groceries for the next stretch to Arinsal as my zero was going to be on a Sunday and I wanted to head out early on Monday.
I checked the news for the first time on my trip. Crazy how things can change in such a short time. When I went down to Hendaye the Covid numbers had been consistently low for a few months now. But France and Spain’s numbers were exploding again. Over 10k new infections a day in France alone. I found the French and Spanish much more responsible than the Germans though. Everyone was wearing a mask in public. In Germany people were demonstrating in masses against the Covid measures of the government. Without masks and social distancing…
I had a big dinner and went to sleep. I was looking forward to my zero. No hiking would surely do me good. A day before arriving in Bernasque I started having a bit of pain in my right outer knee as I was going down technical terrain for a prolonged period of time. It was knee pain I hadn’t experienced before, so I had trouble placing the cause. I used the day to stretch myself a bit more and applying KT tape. During the first half of my trip I consistently rolled out my feet and did the Viranasa pose which I think was a big factor for staying mostly pain free.
Besides my knee flaring up I had to take care of my trail runners (Topo Ultraventure). After 200km(125mi) I first looked at my sole and saw that the Vibram lug on the right heel had unglued half way. Now, after 400km(350mi), the lug was only hanging by a rubber thread and the left heel lug was half way unglued as well. At a souvenir shop I found shoe glue and glued the two lugs back onto the sole. The tread in general was already very smooth and two holes were opening up where my big toes meet the balls of my feet. In hindsight I should have just chosen a new pair of trail runners from the huge selection on offer at the two outdoor stores.
The rest of the day consisted of eating, laying in the sun, eating, sleeping, eating, you get the idea…
The last bus of the season headed up the mountain that Sunday. As I wanted to leave at 6:30am the next morning and didn’t want to wait around for a hitch I had to book a 25€ shuttle back to trail.
Chapter 4: Bernasque - Arinsal - Day 14-17
The next morning I arrived back on trail a bit before 7am. Civil sunrise had not arrived yet. I guessed I would have to do a few minutes of night hiking after all. 6km(3.7mi) in, I arrived at the half way point of the HRP.
The day went by smoothly heading over one of the highest cols of the route, Col de Mulleres. The rest of the day had a lot of vert and turquoise lakes in store. Around 4pm though I started to feel my right knee again. The light pain soon turned into severe one. F*CK… I was happy to be hiking again, grooving through the trail, enjoying the views and now this?!
I wasn’t surprised though. Of course there was some issue to rise up when I was doing anything between 4000-6000m(13123-19685ft) of accumulated vert every day.
The pain didn’t subside. Maybe I had applied the KT tape with too much stretch? I removed it. It got minimally better. Could just as well been placebo.
I went up my last climb of the day, very nervous that my knee would end my hike. Half way up I met a German hiker named Andreas. A fit and experienced hiker. He had started the HRP (Cicerone Version) but after a few days switched to the GR11 as he started to feel uncomfortable with the terrain and passes that he had to hike through. I understood him completely. We exchanged a bit of food and camped together. That was the second and last time I would camp with another person. Before sleep I devoted a bit more time than usual to stretching.
The pain was gone in the morning. But all the little niggles I had had on this trip had gone away after a good night’s sleep. I didn’t trust my pain free knee yet.
After half an hour the pain came back in full force.
Panic hit me full force. The pain and my fear of not being able to go on consumed me. And I had no idea what the hell was wrong with my knee.
Going down into Salardu, I called my dad. I vented my frustrations and asked him to look up my symptoms for me as I wasn’t getting an internet connection. He started reading out a diagnosis of what seemed to be the cause of my pain. IT Band issues. I had only heard about it. Alright dad, how do I fix it? I can’t quit now. No way.
He tried to explain to me some google images and a youtube video he was watching. I guess I was being crewed over the phone. After cheering me up a bit I got my usual weather fix. Thanks dad!
In Salardu I sat down in the shade and started to brutally roll out my outer thigh with my trekking pole. I kept that up for five minutes. Afterwards I got up and carefully took some steps.
Magic! The pain had subsided significantly. Okay, let’s see how long this lasts.
I picked up my pace again and did 1000m(3280ft) of vert in a span of two hours over 10km(6,2mi). My knee was doing fine. Not good, but fine. I set up camp beside a lake just before sunset. Not a minute later it started to rain. The first drops hitting my tent in the Pyrenees. After 15 days.
With my new phone-taught skills I kept my knee pain in check so it wasn’t bothering me any longer. Occasionally I had to stop on a long downhill section and do some extra work with my trekking pole though. Day 16 I passed my biggest waterfall on the trail. Quite the sight.
I’m still annoyed with myself for passing on a camp spot that day which would have been in the Top 3. I took a gamble thinking the next lake would have an even better spot. It didn’t. Still beautiful though.
Checking GAIA before sleep, I knew I had to do some negative vert in the morning. Not something I ever look forward to. Especially not with my knee issues in the mix.
I only had one objective for Day 17. Get to Arinsal in time to resupply and call my grandmother in brazil for her birthday.
The day was marked by a lot of vert and constantly thinking about food. Hiker hunger had set in after a week on trail and daydreaming about grocery shopping had become my main pastime.
Around 5pm and some decent views later I got to Arinsal in Andorra.
​
continued in comments

Hi all!
Hope this question is welcome here. And sorry if it already has been asked, I try to search for it, but I can't find where to search...
I would like to understand how it works with "odds" in gambling, because I find it very hard to find information about it.
For example: "65 to 1" in a horse race. What does it mean exactly? How much do you win and how much other people then? And how are these odds calculated? Does it change when more people pick that horse?
And, besides that, how would it work when you have something like that, but with a person? Everybody gives him a certain amount of money, and at the end he knows exactly how much everybody get?! How?!?!
This is a genuine question, I am always asking myself this when watching tv and I just can't find an explanation on the internet how this works. I really hope you can and want to help me here.
Thanks!

Hi everyone, this is a translation of the latest Chinese Wild meta report from He Zong Lian Heng (合纵连横), first published 3 September 2020 on NGA.
 
Original source
 
Decklists and codes (Imgur gallery)
 

Tier	Score	Deck 1	Deck 2
1	100	Darkglare Warlock
	92	Kingsbane Rogue	Reno Priest
	91	Odd Warrior
	90	Odd Rogue
2 (high)	87	Aggro Druid	Galakrond Warrior
	85	Dead Man's Hand Warrior

 

Meta overview:

Horse Race Academy's horse racing courses have already been taught for a month, with some twists and turns in between. Student Kael'thas Druid was required to take a drug test because his horse speed was too high. The result was that it was all stimulants without a drop of urine, and he was finally expelled by the principal. Student Reno Priest always like to sneak around, intentionally exposing the legs of the horses of other students. In the end, the principal discovered it and only notified him of the criticism, but this student still continued to do the same, only in a slightly more restrained manner. The principal's illegitimate child Darkglare Warlock had, among his classmates, the most reliably high average horse speed and the best grades. Though he was accused by everyone of favoritism, he still lived comfortably off. The school publicly declared: we consider this to be normal.
According to recent statements from game designer Iksar (translator's note: I think this is the reference. Iksar tweeting that he is "Really happy with Scholomance so far. Both in terms of metagame and the magical fantasy vibe), the designers are very pleased with the meta. The author predicts that there will not be a major patch in the near future. Perhaps the illegitimate child Darkglare Warlock will dominate for another half of the expansion, which is good news for Darkglare Warlock, but a major catastrophe for Wild format. Darkglare dominates; ten thousand horses stand mutely.
The last meta report could only reflect the meta conditions at the start of the expansion, as Darkglare Warlock continued its refinement, first discarding the discard package. Afterwards, it also gradually transformed from the zoo line of thinking at the start of the expansion to a pure midrange super development line of thinking. It ran Hooked Reaver, Pen Flinger, Defile, and Mortal Coil, while omitting Flame Imp. Following, the additions of Cult Neophyte to strengthen the deck when it goes off and Animated Broomstick to help flip the board, the omission of Hooked Reaver, and the addition of Sense Demons to improve the chances of drawing (Darkglare), became widely adopted. Darkglare Warlock is really too strong. The turns it can go off, the chances of it going off, and the strength of it going off are all too ridiculous. Traditional horse race decks usually rely on two or more combo cards and go off on turns 4-5. But Darkglare Warlock only needs one copy of Darkglare to go off, with even Sense Demons to tutor it. On the turn it goes off, Darkglare is a card that only costs 3 mana, so the deck can go off on turn 4 if going first, or turn 3 if going second (this excludes extreme cases), and once it goes off, it can usually play 1-2 giants, and even Loatheb or Cult Neophyte to limit the opponent. No matter if it is aggro or control, it is not easy to counter Darkglare Warlock. Looking back on the meta of the last month's new expansion is a history of the evolution of Darkglare Warlock. It is reflected not only in the evolution of Darkglare Warlock itself, as other decks evolve alongside it. Yet the decks that cannot adapt to the Darkglare dynasty can only pitilessly die out. Darkglare Warlock's one weakness is that its life total is at risk. Thus, Kingsbane Rogue and Odd Rogue even choose to run two copies of Sinister Strike. But to take advantage of this weakness, quick board flood and explosive direct damage must be carried out synchronously, or else the initiative of life total control will rest on the side of Darkglare Warlock. Being unable to deal 10 damage after turn 4 without a board is difficult. Thus, even for Secret Mage, if they have low tempo in the early turns, they will still struggle to contend against Darkglare Warlock. Secret Mage needs enough robust tempo and disruption early on to have a chance. There are few decks that can both build a board and have high explosiveness. Maybe only Kingsbane Rogue can do that, but for this reason, it still must pay the price of Sinister Strike and Eviscerate clogging its hand. Otherwise, there is an opportunity for life if Darkglare Warlock's board can be cleared in a timely fashion. Thus, Reno Priest must run cards like Shadow Word: Ruin to contend, and Odd and Dead Man's Hand Warrior, because of their plentiful removal, are still favored against Darkglare Warlock. Galakrond Warrior even runs Brawl. Another tech is Nerub'ar Weblord to limit Darkglare Warlock's super development, but Nerub'ar Weblord will often slow down one's own aggression. Moreover, Darkglare Warlock can easily clear Nerub'ar Weblord with Spirit Bomb, so its tech effect is not ideal. In short, whether or not it is possible to contend against Darkglare Warlock has already become the greatest test of the meta, but in reality, the ways to target Darkglare Warlock are few, and requires a great tradeoff in deck construction. In a meta so inundated by Darkglare Warlock, the types of decks popular on ladder have significantly decreased, for instance, Quest-type Mage. Only Reno Priest, Kingsbane and Odd Rogue, and Warrior are still popular. Other decks have basically vanished. Reno Priest is the only deck whose popularity in the meta can share the limelight with that of Darkglare Warlock. Reno Priest's popularity has also definitely changed the meta trends: for example, it has caused the decline of the new expansion's Even Shaman; theoretical horse king Big Shaman cannot adapt to the meta at all. Odd and Kingsbane Rogue both have things they are good at and can still share a piece of the pie, defining part of the meta and causing ooze to be popular, but the popularity of these decks cannot be mentioned in the same breath Darkglare Warlock. Dead Man's Hand Warrior mainly benefits from Darkglare Warlock's strength, but it has the shortcomings of being overly reliant on combos and having individual cards of low effect. The deck is definitely strong but unreliable. Odd Warrior, with more effective individual cards and more ideal counter effect, might be a better choice. Aside from the above decks, there are no other popular decks in the meta. Thus, the meta is strategically monotonous. Ten thousand horses standing mutely, miserably; the current meta impatiently needs a hand from the heavens to break the impasse.
 

Mainstream decks:

1, Darkglare Warlock

In the previous month, Darkglare Warlock underwent many stages of refinement. More than necessary won't be said; compared to the many historical horse race decks, Darkglare Warlock has achieved high probability, high speed, and high strength. On the probability of it going off, one copy of Darkglare is enough, far exceeding combo decks that needed 2 or more cards. Only Naga Giants Warlock can be placed on par in terms of probability of it going off. In terms of speed, going off on turns 3-4 is faster than Naga Giants Warlock, SN1P-SN4P Warlock, and way faster than combo decks that needed Juicy Psychmelon. In terms of the strength of it going off, Darkglare Warlock can build a board and drop Loatheb in the same turn, having more decisive strength than past Naga Giants or SN1P-SN4P Warlock. Darkglare Warlock's strength suppresses the diversity of the whole meta. Letting all decks have the ability to contend with Darkglare Warlock is unrealistic. Those who cannot, or must a pay a high price to contend with Darkglare Warlock become non-mainstream decks. Decks that can, through small deckbuilding sacrifices, contend with Darkglare Warlock, become mainstream meta decks. On the issue of deck construction, current mainstream Darkglare Warlock builds are diverse. The most popular builds run Sense Demons but not Hooked Reaver, the discard package, or Flame Imp. Defile is trending towards not being run, with many people replacing it with Rain of Fire. As for Cult Neophyte, Pen Flinger, and Animated Broomstick, these have become essential cards. Some people run Soulfire or Power Overwhelming to increase explosiveness, and some run Shadowflame for the mirror. On the whole, the Sense Demons package has become the most popular. Regarding how to play the deck, the turns to go off with Darkglare require much practice. When to go off and how to sequence cards require in-game experience. The addition of Pen Flinger makes Darkglare Warlock's calculations more complicated and lengthens the animation time. Since turn times are tight, occasional misplays cannot be avoided. More practice can minimize mana and board space mistakes to the greatest possible extent. In the mirror, the race is on to create something unanswerable. Though there are different types of tech cards such as Animated Broomstick and Shadowflame to counterattack, Shadowflame is limited by Cult Neophyte and Animated Broomstick can only make equal trades. Even if you have a way to counterattack, not taking the initiative runs the risk of being suppressed by Cult Neophyte. It must be noted that when the opponent plays Cult Neophyte without going off with Darkglare, they most likely have Darkglare and Raise Dead. Try to prevent them from trading off the Cult Neophyte. Against Reno Priest, giants don't necessarily need to wait for Loatheb to be played. Pay attention to the opponent's mana. If they can't play Mass Hysteria, then it is completely fine to drop the giants with Darkglare. In later turns, Cult Neophyte can be used to reduce their mana by one, forcing them to play Wave of Apathy before you play Loatheb to find lethal. Against Kingsbane Rogue, Molten Giants are key. Whether or not Kingsbane Rogue has Parachute Brigand and Kingsbane to accelerate their tempo is the dividing line between victory and defeat. If Kingsbane Rogue doesn't have strong early tempo, then it's not enough to defeat Darkglare Warlock. Early on, reduce their board damage to prevent the life total from being too low when going off with Darkglare. Vulgar Homunculus must be rationally used to limit Kingsbane Rogue's single-turn burst.

Sense Demons Darkglare Warlock

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Hooked Reaver Darkglare Warlock

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2, Reno Priest

After the additions of Lorekeeper Polkelt and Wave of Apathy strengthened the deck, Reno Priest's meta popularity rivals that of Darkglare Warlock. Lorekeeper Polkelt has become the deck's highest winrate card if kept in the opening hand. But, the deck's suppression of the meta is not as excessive as that of Darkglare Warlock. At most, the popularity of Reno Priest was the last straw for Even and Big Shaman, while not causing too many decks to die out. In reality, Reno Priest also has some drawbacks: fears the opponent disrupting highlander, bombs and Beneath the Grounds can both strike a mortal blow against it, Kingsbane Rogue can't be defeated without Gluttonous Ooze or Kobold Stickyfinger, it lacks board initiative, Grizzled Wizard + Sir Finley Mrrgglton can immediately wreck Reno Priest. For deckbuilding, Reno Priest is very flexible. Currently, the quick draw build is mainstream, with foreign servers even choosing to play Dead Ringer, while the China server tries to gain value while drawing quickly, and could consider running Madame Lazul or other cards. Since Darkglare Warlock now runs rampant, Shadow Word: Ruin is run.

Reno Priest

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3, Kingsbane Rogue

Though Kingsbane Rogue appears to be a tier 1 deck, and its popularity is not low, likely one half of Kingsbane Rogues can't achieve tier 1 strength. Some of them are dead at the start of the game, but are only buried on turn 5; they lived like a dog; I am sorry -- Kobold Stickyfinger. Kingsbane Rogue always was bothered by Ooze and even Kobold Stickyfinger. Maybe Ooze can be resisted, but Kobold Stickyfinger can win against Kingsbane Rogue on its own. Without the complications of Ooze, then Kingsbane Rogue might be the strongest deck. As for deckbuilding, to more effectively inhibit Darkglare Warlock, the majority of builds run double Sinister Strike, benefiting from the deck's strong draw, letting Sinister Strike not be such a tempo loss. Here it is not recommended to run the foreign server build that lacks Parachute Brigand and Ship's Cannon. Without those two cards, Kingsbane Rogue' early tempo is insufficient, and it is harder to beat a Darkglare Warlock that draws well. There is even the chance of being limited by Dead Man's Hand Warrior's Bulwark of Azzinoth.

Kingsbane Rogue

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4, Odd Warrior

After a series of refinements, Odd Warrior's performance shines. Against Darkglare Warlock, Odd Warrior is even more favored than Dead Man's Hand Warrior. Against Kingsbane and Odd Rogue, Odd Warrior's advantage is not small. Against Reno Priest, Mischief Maker limits Lorekeeper Polkelt. Odd Warrior is stably trending up, but its matchup against Reno Priest depends on their thickness. Once Reno Priest plays Brann + Zephrys + Zola, then Odd Warrior is less likely to win. Since Darkglare Warlock currently suppresses the majority of other lategame decks, Odd Warrior has currently become very strong, second only to Darkglare Warlock. But its ease of being targeted by 0-100 matchups is still a great problem for Odd Warrior: I choose death! Deckbuilding: Odd Warrior needs to adjust depending on the meta. Currently, Ancharrr, Kobold Stickyfinger, and two copies of Mischief Maker are recommended. Make the most suitable choices for the meta. If not targeting Kingsbane Rogue, the Ancharrr package can be omitted. Mischief Maker is currently very popular; including it is highly recommended. If OTK decks appear, Death Lord can be considered. As for matchups, Odd Warrior is easy to play. The one matchup to note is against Reno Priest, with a chance of winning or losing an ambiguous matchup. Keep enough removal to clear their minions and don't play too many of your own to play around AOE. Just ensure you have enough to clear the opposing board. Brann should be kept for Coldlight Oracle to reduce the number of turns and prevent Reno Priest from having enough turns to kill Odd Warrior. Mischief Maker can not only steal the Death Knight, in the endgame, it can also be used to to gain two points of fatigue advantage.

Odd Warrior

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5, Odd Rogue

Odd Rogue is very reliable, its tempo very coherent. It has seemingly returned to the level it was in the Year of the Raven, but the problem is the current ridiculousness of the meta. Darkglare Warlock's ridiculous super development ability is the killer of Odd Rogue. Though it is now popular for Odd Rogue to run two copies of Shadow Strike, it is not enough to contend against a Darkglare Warlock that goes off on 4 mana. But if Darkglare Warlock can't go off with Darkglare on 4 mana, then the balance of the matchup tilts toward Odd Rogue. Yet in other matchups, Odd Rogue performs very well. Beneath the Grounds precisely inhibits Reno Priest. The matchup against Kingsbane Rogue is slightly unfavored but playable. Since Oozes have usually been replaced with Kobold Stickyfinger, Kingsbane Rogue is not suppressed by Ooze. Regarding deck construction, the Magic Carpet and Corridor Creeper package have gradually been replaced with direct damage and weapon buffs, to better adapt to the Darkglare Warlock meta.

Odd Rogue

AAEBAaIHCK8E3Qj6DpsUkbwCnvgCubgDitADC8sDxgXUBZsVpu8Cj5cDqssDm80DiNADpNED99QDAA==

6, Dead Man's Hand Warrior

Dead Man's Hand Warrior hitting rank 1 Legend incited a storm, but from its strength, it cannot compete with other decks. Maybe many people will disenchant the deck with its difficulty of piloting as the excuse, but in reality, Dead Man's Hand Warrior has not achieved sufficient strength. In targeting Darkglare Warlock, Odd Warrior is more outstanding than Dead Man's Hand Warrior. Against Reno Priest, Dead Man's Hand Warrior struggles to pile up enough armor. When Reno Priest plays Lorekeeper Polkelt, that seemingly signals that the game is won for Reno Priest. Dead Man's Hand Warrior's problem is mainly that it is still too reliant on combos and its individual cards are of limited effect. Though the deck is much stronger this expansion than in the past, in reality, against Reno Priest, Kingsbane Rogue, and Odd Rogue, it is still unfavored. Now there are few slow decks like N'Zoth Reno Mage or combo decks, Dead Man's Hand Warrior is a more ideal choice to target the meta.

Dead Man's Hand Warrior

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7, Aggro Druid

Though Aggro Druid doesn't have explosive direct damage, its board expands quickly. The deck can contend against Darkglare Warlock in a meta where fewer of them are running Defile. In the meta at the start of the month, Aggro Druid has a definite appearance rate, but practically, the deck possibly should be considered non-mainstream. If at some time Darkglare Warlock popularly begins to run Defile, then Aggro Druid will be unsuited for the meta. Unlike past builds, the current build runs more spells to activate Gibberer, but this will lower the effectiveness of Embiggen. In short, from head to tail, Aggro Druid exemplifies one word: horse!

Aggro Druid

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8, Galakrond Warrior

Among mainstream decks, Galakrond Warrior's popularity is not high, but compared to non-mainstream decks, Galakrond Warrior's appearance rate is not bad. Running Brawl and Lord Barov, the deck has at least a fighting chance against Darkglare Warlock. Against Reno Priest, the deck has an extremely evident advantage. Against currently mainstream Kingsbane and Odd Rogue, Galakrond Warrior is at a disadvantage, but it still has a chance. In summary, the current Galakrond Warrior still continues the characteristic of "every living thing can fight forcefully". Its high effectiveness in punishing Reno Priest is the deck's greatest advantage.

Galakrond Warrior

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Other decks:

9, Odd Paladin

Like Aggro Druid, Odd Paladin currently has explosive early board techniques. Going second, it can summon 5 2/2s by turn 2. (Turn 1 Righteous Cause + Coin + Tour Guide + hero power, turn 2 hero power). But early in the expansion, when Darkglare Warlock ran double Defile, Odd Paladin began to collapse. Now, Odd Paladin is disadvantaged against Darkglare Warlock, but it has a chance. And against other decks, Odd Paladin's performance is very good. Even Odd and Dead Man's Hand Warrior, traditionally considered very favored against Odd Paladin, won't work in this expansion. In the post-Defile period, Odd Paladin is seeing a revival.

Odd Paladin 1

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Odd Paladin 2

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10, Quest Mage

In a period dominated by Darkglare Warlock, Quest Mage has no fighting strength. Even if it was not the time of Darkglare Warlock, with the extent of the buffs to aggro this expansion, Quest Mage is very troubled.

Quest Mage

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11, Reno Quest Mage

Reno Quest Mage is better against aggro than Quest Mage, but its horse-countering ability is worse. Only a stronger horse race deck can beat another horse race deck, which Reno Quest Mage clearly is not. If Darkglare Warlock is nerfed, then Reno Quest Mage may make an appearance if it shores up its ability to counter aggro.

Reno Quest Mage

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12, Even Shaman

Among current mainstream decks, Even Shaman does not have one favored matchup, but nearly all unfavored matchups. If can't even beat Dead Man's Hand Warrior, the deck's decline is unavoidable.

Even Shaman

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13, Malygos/Togwaggle Druid

Speaking of Malygos Druid, the Kael'thas nerf can be almost disregarded, but the deck still lacks enough fighting strength. In the current meta, Malygos Druid, lacking any way to clear the board, will likely be smacked to death by Darkglare Warlock's giants. Cult Neophyte and Darkglare can limit Malygos Druid's development; Spreading Plague is hard-pressed to put out the fire. Bulwark of Azzinoth is also Malygos Druid's bane, and against Reno Priest, the deck's advantage is not great because of the disruption cards Mindrender Illucia and Dirty Rat. Comparatively, Togwaggle Druid can run Poison Seeds, improving the matchup against Darkglare Warlock, but its disadvantage is still very significant. But the weakness of combo decks to disruption cannot be overlooked.

Togwaggle Druid

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14, Turtle Mage

Wild also has Turtle Mage, shamelessly casting unlimited Ice Blocks. The damage package has been changed to the more effective Cloud Prince and Metereologist, and the deck has more effective individual cards. However, it is still hard to beat Darkglare Warlock. To resist Darkglare Warlock, Turtle Mage needs at least 10 mana to begin its perpetual motion combo. Darkglare Warlock won't give many turns to a deck that passes its early turns, with Doomsayer + Frost Nova completely unable to suppress Darkglare Warlock. Animated Broomstick, Amethyst Spellstone, and Spirit Bomb plus Pen Flinger can all deal with it. Against Reno Priest, there is only hope that they do not have Mindrender Illucia. If they have Illucia, then Turtle Mage will die for nothing.

Turtle Mage

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15, Big Shaman

Big Shaman still has an inherently high feasibility, but its disadvantage against Reno Priest is glaring, enough to define Big Shaman as unsuited for the meta. Against Darkglare Warlock, it is also harder to deal with Cult Neophyte bricking a key turn. Big Shaman's ceiling can be ranked at number one this expansion, but its probability is low, insufficient to cause a great impact on the strength whole deck; sometimes gambling a little is fine.

Big Shaman

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16, Jade Druid

Jade Druid can be used to target Reno Priest, Odd Warrior, Dead Man's Hand Warrior, and Odd Rogue. Its disadvantage against Darkglare Warlock is comparatively large, reducing its competitiveness by 50%. Its popularity is not high in the current meta.

Jade Druid

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17, (Reno) Secret Mage

Though Secret Mage can theoretically target Darkglare Warlock, in practice, it won't do. On one hand, Secret Mage can't expand its board quickly enough, allowing Darkglare Warlock in the early game to coast to turn 4. On the other hand, the damage/cost ratio is not high. There is often only 6 damage, and even that is vulnerable to Loatheb. Also, Secret Mage is also slightly unfavored against Reno Priest. In short, Secret Mage is not recommended to target Darkglare Warlock. As for Reno Secret Mage, its performance is better than pure Secret Mage. Zephrys has the possibility of inhibiting Darkglare Warlock, its card slots are more flexible, and it does better against Reno Priest.

Secret Mage

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Reno Secret Mage

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It's finished, all other decks are younger brothers!

Please call me the patch prophet!

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
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Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
​
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
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Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
​
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
​
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
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6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
​
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
​
4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
​
3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
​
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
​
2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
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But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
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Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
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The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
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But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
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1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
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2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
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And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
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Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.