The best laid PLANs of mice and men often go awry.
Welcome back to another effortpost by me generally on the developing arms race in East Asia, this time covering the People's Liberation Army Navy, hereafter referred to as the "PLAN", and its massive growth... and... mostly, well, its massive growth. What that means is mostly covered in other posts about how other countries are responding to it. The why is a bit difficult because, well, China is not well known for open debate, or open anything, really, which will turn up repeatedly.
- What you [might] need to know about South Korea's ludicrous arms buildup
- We shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches.... uh, what do we do after that again?: The Perilous Defensive Position of Taiwan
- "You've hit another cargo ship? The Problems with the US Navy: Not all of them begin with "Seven" and end with "th Fleet"."
- Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?
- Biden's New START and modern nuclear war
- First And Last Stand Of The Tin Can Navies [ASEAN + Australia and the smaller adversaries China may contend with]
- Boned: Problems in the US Air [and space!] Force
- --Unnamed-- effortpost on Japanese military matters, mostly about how weird the JSDF status is
- --Unnamed--effortpost on Indian military matters, and why they can't focus on China or buy anything that works
- --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the PLA, mostly the air force though
- --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the US Armed Forces, mostly talking about how the marines are changing and the Army's new love affair with INF-busting weapons
- Conclusion?
Glossary: PLA = People's Liberation Army = the armed forces of the People's Republic of China, or China
PLAN = People's Liberation Army Navy = the naval forces of the PLA
PLANAF = People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force = the air force of the navy of the PLA
Ashm = Anti-ship missile, cruise missile unless specifically described as otherwise--there's only one anti-ship ballistic missile in existence and its efficacy and whether or not it functions is questionable
CIWS = close-in weapons system, like the Phalanx gun or Goalkeeper
VLS = vertical launch system for missiles
AEGIS = Aegis Combat System if described specifically in that context, a US naval warfare system, but we'll usually be talking about "Chinese AEGIS", which is a nomiker used by the Chinese media in particular comparing the Type 346 radar to the AN-SPY family, with which it shares numerous technical characteristics--but how comparable the "Chinese AEGIS" system is to what the US uses is a complete unknown.
SAM = Surface-to-air missile, in this case usually a S-300 derivative
First Island Chain = The islands, stretching from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan, which keep China inside its littoral seas much as the GIUK [Greenland-Iceland-UK] gap has kept various continental powers out of the Atlantic.
Some PLAN equipment you might see described--the nomenclature is confusing and a relic of the cultural revolution, and as a result China now has more Types than the British.
Type 003 = China's new conventionally powered supercarriers, currently under construction
Type 002 = China's first truly "operational" carrier
Type 001 = China's first carrier, built on a Soviet hull purchased from Ukraine ostensibly to make a floating casino
Type 055 = Guided-missile cruiser, though generally called a destroyer it's probably more descriptively labeled a cruiser
Type 052D = Guided-missile destroyer using "Chinese AEGIS"
Type 052/051B/052B/052C = the gradual progression of evolving Chinese naval tech, largely built as practice/demo ships like the Type 001. Some of the earlier ones are steam-powered but by the Type 052C you have something almost as advanced as the Type 052D, albeit with turbine problems
Type 054A = the standard modern frigate of the PLAN
Type 053[anything] = old PLAN frigates
Type 096 = China's newest SSBN class, under construction
Type 094 = China's first functional SSBN class, very noisy
Type 092 = China's first "SSBN", believed to have never left port with an actual nuke on board
Type 095 = China's newest SSN class, under construction
Type 093 = China's current SSN class, noisy
Type 091 = China's first SSN class, dumb dumb dumb and is at a 1950s tech level
Type 039[A] = China's new SSK class
Kilo = China's older SSK class, imported from Russia
Sovremenny = China's first capable anti-air destroyers, imported from Russia
1. The Last Time A Rising Navy Challenged A Dominant Foe
The last time we've seen something like this was in the late 19th century. After the First World War shipbuilding was restricted by the landmark Washington Naval Treaty, one of the first great arms control treaties, and during the Cold War the Soviet Union never really had any hopes of surpassing American naval power. China, however, seems intent on replacing the US as the world's dominant naval power, or at least building a force that can stop the US Navy, even combined with the forces of Japan and other regional allies.
The nations in question, of course, in the last naval arms race, were the United Kingdom and a newly-unified Germany. Germany never reached the level of the UK, but seriously threatened it. Previously the UK had maintained a policy of having more ships than the next two largest fleets combined, but this was no longer possible, and the UK legitimately was fearful for its naval supremacy. It didn't last too long in the end--under a decade--and a resumption was foiled by first a world war and then the Washington Naval Treaty. The impact of the arms race, though, was massive. It set Germany and the UK at odds with each other, it resulted in a general buildup of warships pretty much everywhere [South America was, believe it or not, one of the biggest offenders there], established Germany for a time as the world's second naval power, having eclipsed both France and Russia and turning a small coastal defense navy into something that was able to defeat the Royal Navy itself, though never comprehensively enough to change the course of the first world war.
China dwells in a much different situation than Germany did at the turn of the last century, so we can only extend the analogy so far--substituting in Japan for the UK, India for Russia, and so on is possible but not, in my view, educational. However, we can see many of the same elements playing in here. China seems intent on replacing the US as a dominant power, or at least as regional hegemon--the ancient tributary system seems to lie fairly heavily on Chinese minds--and in order to do that, it must be able to have some degree of power projection and the capability to deny the US Navy access to areas within the first island chain. It remains to be seen, however, how successful that quest will be. Much as with the dreadnought battleships, I wouldn't be surprised if we never actually do find out if most of the shiny naval toys people have built actually work. But their mere existence shows the mutual hostility developing in the region and demonstrates the size of the Chinese threat.
Another lesson learned here is that China, like Germany, may not develop a naval force capable of defeating the US comprehensively, but only partially, and that one of the powers--in this case, China--might be pressured to strike first before the US Navy can close the gap. That ~2030 gap I talked about in my last post is, I think, an especially vulnerable point, because China may look at a degraded, but rejuvenating US Navy, then at their own capable forces, and decide to strike then in Taiwan and the South China Sea, only to back down when the US Navy again eclipses them. Whether or not that will happen, we will see--but I find it a very dangerous and perhaps likely possibility.
2. What the PLAN looked like 20 years ago
The PLAN has undergone an absolutely stunning evolution in the past two decades. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis the US could intimidate China with a pair of aircraft carrier strike groups and China could do pretty much nothing about it. Now the US is afraid of sending anything more than a destroyer through the strait.
Twenty years ago, the PLAN was a bit of a joke. Even Taiwan figured it could hold the seas against the PLAN. It consisted of a few tens of outdated coastal-defense frigates, some Soviet-era diesel-electric subs, and a large number of unsophisticated missile craft. The pride of the Chinese fleet were a handful of destroyers assembled using cobbled-together Western technology--copied French missiles, American gas turbines, the lot. According to American accounts at the time, the instructions for the equipment hadn't even been translated. The most advanced ship in the fleet used steampower. There were nuclear submarines, but of 1950s quality. Of particular note was the fact that the Chinese fleet had
no area air defense capabilities--their premier surface-to-air-missile was an unlicensed knockoff of the French Crotale, and couldn't shoot anything outside of visual range, at high altitudes, or really doing anything more sophisticated than trying to kill their ships with low-altitude dumb bombing runs.
In the past twenty years, however, the PLAN has, much like the German Navy towards the end of the 19th century, gone from an afterthought to the world's second most powerful force. It began, as modern China's military capabilities almost all began, with the looting of the former Soviet Union for naval technology. While Soviet naval tech was generally lacking, it was much better than anything else China could get its hands on after the arms embargo placed on it in the 1990s by the US and Europe in response to Tienanmen and the end of the Cold War. China bought Soviet diesel submarines, Soviet air-defense destroyers, and Soviet aircraft carriers, which it promptly left lying around [and turned one of them into a theme park]. This was combined with copies of various pieces of Western, mostly European, technology for everything from sonars to surface-to-air missiles. China then began developing its first modern indigenous surface combatants, the Type 052C, but there were still problems. The engines were Ukrainian and had reliability trouble, the gun jammed, there was no VLS.
It is really in the last ten years that things have begun to move extremely quickly, and even only in the latter portion of the decade. In 2012 the Type 001
Liaoning entered service, and although it remains more of a training ship than an operational vessel, and is held back by a poor carrier aircraft, the mere fact that China "built" a carrier was a surprise to many. In 2014 the first Type 052D destroyer came online. It had learned the lessons from the Type 052C, and in just the last six years at least ten have entered service, with a class size of about 23 expected. This rapid expansion is what has frightened competing navies the most--in a little over a decade, the PLAN is constructing more destroyers than the British, French, and Australian navies have in service combined. It is also building the Type 055, which has generally been called a "destroyer" despite being more aptly described as a cruiser in line with the Ticonderoga-class. China has also built 30 modern frigates in the past decade, which has also swelled its numbers, along with numerous smaller corvettes, submarines, and so on.
This is why the PLAN has become such an object of concern. While it cannot challenge the US Navy yet, at least outside its littoral zones, the decline of the USN and rapid expansion of the PLAN means that it is a serious threat. And the speed at which it has developed has made many fearful. As recently as 2010, the idea of China operating an aircraft carrier or modern destroyers seemed distant, possibly preposterous. Now China speaks openly of having a six-carrier fleet in the 2030s, although, as with many of China's plans to operate full US-replicated tech and doctrine, these may have somewhat caved to realism. China is mighty, but it has already done the easy part--the last part is much harder, in economics and in military matters. Building the software, the institutional knowledge, the hardware to compete with the US Navy will prove difficult.
3. What the PLAN looks like now--submarines
Submarines are one of the PLAN's weak spots, particularly nuclear submarines. China is, however, making some fairly rapid advances in this area.
Their nuclear submarine program has been considered a bit of a joke for some time. In the late 1950s when all the cool
kids great powers were getting nuclear submarines, China decided [or at least Mao did] that China needed nuclear submarines too. About
16 years later, the product of this effort finally emerged as the Type 091 submarine. Based on 1950s technology, with poor radiation shielding and basically nothing done in the name of noise reduction, and not even a teardrop hull, the Type 091 was probably more of a threat to the sailors who were on it than anyone else, except maybe the two Tench-class submarines that Taiwan operates, which use 1940s technology and are the world's longest-serving submarines, though they're mostly used for training nowadays. Even then, my money would be on the Tench despite the upgrades the PLAN has made to the Type 091. There's only so much you can do to put lipstick on a pig.
China also produced an SSBN, the Type 092, which was probably the only submarine more useless than the Type 091. About the only useful thing it did for the PLAN was that it served as a test platform for SLBM launches. Reports suggest that the Type 092 is the noisiest SSBN ever made, and is thought to have only ever undertaken a single patrol. It stayed at port for so long that it was thought to have sunk in an accident. And the experience turned the PLAN off from building SSBNs for over twenty years, until the Type 094 came online in 2007.
More recent submarines are growing in capability, though. The Type 094
is not the noisiest SSBN ever made, and may not even be the noisiest in current service--that honor going to the Delta III operated by the Russian Navy, which uses 1970s technology, and, which, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence, is about as noisy as the Type 094. The Type 093 is also moderately capable--it actually functions and can fire anti-ship missiles. However, the Type 093 is still considered only comparable to the Soviet Victor III class, again using 1970s technology. Future submarines have not yet been seen, but expectations are that China will make another step forward to late 1980s or early 1990s tech levels, producing something on par with the Los Angeles or Akula for the first time.
China also operates a fairly capable fleet of coastal diesel-electric submarines. While some are quite old--the Type 035--most are pretty average for the global submarine force, a mix of Kilos and domestic AIP designs. The large number of boats in operation and their anti-ship missile capability means that these should be considered a real threat, at least in the littoral waters near to China, but they aren't decisive by any means, especially since China is facing off against such threats as Japan's
Soryu class, probably the most advanced diesel-electric sub in existence.
In conclusion, the PLAN is still pretty weak on the submarine front--weaker here than on anything but its carrier force, but its capabilities are advancing rapidly and should not be underestimated.
4. What the PLAN looks like now--surface combatants
The surface fleet is definitely the most impressive and capable portion of the PLAN, no questions about it. China once had a fleet consisting mostly of coastal frigates and missile boats. As recently as 2000, its fleet had no real area-air-defense destroyers, and no SAMs that could operate outside visual range. Now, though, the PLAN operates tens of advanced guided-missile destroyers, advanced frigates, and still retains a large number of small, stealthy missile boats.
The major focus of Chinese warships appears to be on anti-air, with anti-surface being a somewhat secondary concern for all but the smallest vessels. This makes sense when you realize that the primary focus is, at least for the moment, on using land-based aircraft to strike against hostile fleet formations using long-range anti-ship missiles, in a very Soviet sort of way--"Backfire raids" using long-range land-based aircraft with anti-ship missiles were one of the US Navy's major concerns during the Cold War, and the very reason for the F-14's existence along with the AIM-54 Phoenix it carried. However, China has been developing anti-surface capabilities as well using ashms and land-attack cruise missiles [generally the same thing, actually]. Since China has finally developed a VLS system that allows it to use the same launcher for multiple missiles, its most recent ships have become more versatile in that role.
How effective these ships are at that task is, however, a relatively open question. Their radars at least seem to quite sophisticated, using flat-panel AESA, and have been dubbed "Chinese AEGIS" by the
highly reliable Chinese domestic media. The basic platform their surface-to-air missiles are based on also seems to be fairly capable--the HQ-9 is an S-300 derivative, a respectable SAM system though, again, how capable it is against opponents in an active electronic warfare environment is questionable, and it has basically no capabilities against stealth aircraft like the F-35 as far as anyone knows. The efficacy of their CIWS, again, is open to question. Really this is true of everything about the modern PLAN, and PLA in general. The PLA is secretive, has not exported most of its hardware, and has developed largely independently of foreign militaries, though it is definitely influenced by them. Now that the PLAN has moved away from simply copying foreign hardware and patching it together, its capabilities are much harder to discern.
However, they should be taken as a very real threat, and not written off. My guess would be that their warships are about as capable as most of their non-American counterparts, save those equipped with AEGIS, but that's all my guess is---a guess.
5. What the PLAN looks like now--carriers
The PLAN currently has two carriers in service, and two more known to be under construction, and most suspect that it will build several more. However, at the moment, the PLAN's carrier force is largely a paper tiger, designed around training. The first carrier, the Type 001, basically was a "how do you build a carrier" kit bought from Russia, possibly by accident--the "fully functional"
Minsk ended up as a theme park, believe it or not. The hull was purchased from Ukraine and then completed in China years later. It is also believed that the PLAN may have learned some things about aircraft carriers from the HMAS Melbourne, which was sold to a Chinese firm for scrapping--rumor has it the PLAN had no clue this had happened and then had a field day looking at all the stuff that hadn't been taken out. This was back in the old days when nobody could imagine that China would have an aircraft carrier. The Type 002, however, is built from scratch, but isn't particularly capable especially as it's a ski-jump carrier, leaving the Type 003 the first carrier which will prove actually useful.
The main thing holding China's carrier fleet back, though, is a lack of a suitable aircraft. Originally China was considering purchasing Su-33s from Russia, hardly a good carrier-based aircraft but functional, but after Russia discovered that China had been mucking about building a Su-27 derivative without asking the deal fell through [China tells a different story, saying that Russia demanded exorbitant amounts to reopen production which it was unwilling to pay for a nearly obsolete aircraft]. As a result China operates the J-15 as its naval fighter, with... less than stellar results. It's extremely heavy, and, if it takes off from the carrier, has minimal range if carrying anything at all--it can't take more than two short range air to air missiles into the sky to fight enemy aircraft. However, the J-15 isn't really intended for combat service--it's intended to teach China how to run carriers, and it seems to work well enough for that task, aside from the
multiple fatal crashes. There is, however, thought to be a new carrier fighter in the pipeline--most say the J-31/FC-31, which has reduced RCS and a number of carrier-unique features, is being pitched as a carrier-based aircraft and will serve as China's carrier fighter in the future. China also lacks any fixed wing carrier-based airborne early warning, which could prove troublesome--a lack of AEW means that its view is limited by the horizon--and has no resupply aircraft like the C-2 Greyhound. As a result, for the moment at least, China lacks an effective carrier force, but it is likely to continue developing rapidly in the next decade and become a fairly substantial threat. Remember that as recently as 2010, a Chinese aircraft carrier seemed preposterous to many people, and now they have two.
6. Some attention to land-based aircraft
Land-based aircraft as a naval weapon are not generally used by the US, which has never had a reason to develop them as a doctrinal focus. Sure, you could potentially envision them as being used, and there even were situations where they were utilized, but it just wasn't generally a priority or how things were done. For China, though, taking influence from the Soviets, and lying on littoral seas with hostile powers in the First Island Chain, land-based aircraft and missiles are a key part of doctrine. Although this is often viewed as a new thing, called A2/AD [anti access/area denial], it's really the result of a long historical evolution of naval power, probably most refined by the Soviet Union. As a result, land-based naval aviation plays an important role, firing anti-ship missiles at standoff distances at enemy vessels, and shore-based launchers of anti-ship missiles are also an important weapon. The combination of these systems means that venturing within China's littoral seas is a dangerous proposition during war, and some waters, like those of the Taiwan Strait, are effectively considered closed at this point in the event of hostilities breaking out. For this reason air superiority is also important in this sort of naval warfare, as if either side gains air superiority it can pummel its opponents with air-launched anti-ship missiles. China's capabilities in this area are sophisticated and should not be underestimated, but they are unlikely to go through a rapid period of growth like the PLAN's fleet.
And a brief note dedicated entirely to the DF-21D "Carrier killer" that the PLA likes to show off. It's a pretty impressive capability, on paper, using a ballistic missile to hit a carrier. The CEP [circular error probable] means that it could even happen, presuming that an aircraft carrier was good enough to sit in one place, not moving, long enough to be detected by China. Aircraft carriers look big, but the seas are huge, and they're surprisingly hard to find. They also move quite fast, in excess of of 35mph/55kph, and thus by the time the ballistic missile has launched it might well be out of range given the fact that ballistic missiles are not particularly known for their maneuverability in terminal stages, at least not in the realm of miles. The DF-21D is not a particular threat to the modern aircraft carrier. It could potentially be one if it evolves into a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, but that's a whole additional can of worms, that I might address a different day.
7. The PLAN's plans for the future--what will it look like in 2030?
Unfortunately the PLAN is not exactly the most open of navies, as I've repeatedly mentioned. There are no public debates over acquisitions programs, no big fleet shape plans, relatively little detail.
However, a few things are fairly sure bets or publicly announced.
China has repeatedly announced plans to build a six-carrier force, including the Type 001 and Type 002, but also a pair of Type 003 [already under construction] conventionally powered supercarriers and a pair of Type 004 nuclear powered supercarriers. However, it seems that the Type 004 is currently on hold. Why, exactly, is unclear, but it seems to be technical difficulties, which are not particularly surprising given that China's experience with nuclear maritime propulsion seem to be rather limited and have had poor results in their submarine fleet. The costs were also expected to be too high--China does not have an unlimited quantity of money, despite what it may flaunt, and nuclear carriers are expensive to develop especially given that China has not built a nuclear-powered surface ship before.
A new carrier-based fighter is almost certainly in the cards because the J-15 is pretty much useless. The FC-31 seems by far the most likely candidate but it could be another aircraft we haven't seen yet. The addition of this aircraft will greatly improve the PLAN's capabilities.
China also has two Type 075 amphibious assault ships/LHDs under construction, and I would expect this class to be much more prolific. These ships are much more affordable than the full carriers, and focus on areas in which China is particularly concerned--amphibious assaults, say, on islands in the South China Sea or on Taiwan, and anti-submarine warfare, which is of particular importance given that submarines cannot be easily halted with land-based anti-ship missiles and air-launched cruise missiles provided for in their area denial doctrine--submarines are one of the few things that can slip through that net.
The surface combatant fleet is likely to continue growing, but I am not sure if it will swell much beyond the ~23 Type 052D ships planned and the 8 Type 055s. We're likely to see the retirement of the classes preceding the Type 052C destroyer and the Type 054 frigate, and they may be offloaded to Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Pakistan--there is substantial precedent here, and it seems that China is interested in expanding the naval capabilities of its partners around India.
The submarine fleet is likely to see rapid expansion
if the PLAN is satisfied with the Type 095 and Type 096 classes, and we're likely to see more diesel-electric subs built as well. Submarines are generally quite good at fighting submarines and conducting area-denial missions, and the large and capable subsurface forces of Japan, Korea, and the United States means that this has to be an area the PLAN invests more in--and the fact that several Southeast Asian nations are also looking at acquiring submarines makes the issue more pressing.
8. Conclusion
China has in the past decade gone from a third-rate navy to perhaps the greatest threat the US Navy has faced since the Second World War. This has significant geopolitical implications, and has resulted in neighbors scrambling to overhaul their naval forces. The growth of the PLAN means that the US can no longer easily defend Taiwan or the South China Sea, or any of China's littoral waters. This, more than anything else, is what has everyone scrambling in the US talking about "great-power competition" because denying access to the US Navy and working on power projection, an inherently naval thing, is essentially a clear sign that China is looking to directly compete with the United States. Underestimate the PLAN at your own peril.
I hope to have more detail and citations in future posts, but unfortunately the PLAN is very secretive [yes, I've said that fifty times already] and this is a pretty big topic to discuss without going into details about all sorts of naval tidbits. Thanks for reading the fourth post in what I hope will be a fairly substantial series, probably around ~12 posts.
9. Citations
James Holmes, "The Danger Zone In Naval Arms Races" USNI, Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization Hans Kristensen, China's Noisy Nuclear Submarines Eric Wertheim, China's Type 052D Destroyer is a potent adversary Robert Farley, Let's Talk About The Chinese Navy's Type 055 Destroyer Ryan Pickrell, Chinese fighter jet holding China back as it builds carrier fleet Look, much more here is based on loose speculation, more unreliable sources, and stuff I've picked up over the years, because public info is limited. So take everything I say with a grain of salt, but understand that it's the best information
I know of.
submitted by Part 1 part 2 part 3 part 4 2009 was a grand year. I am 23 years old, will turn 24 late in the year. I am starting to settle down on the drugs and alcohol (not completely but a bit). I log a lot of hours and am playing at my peak level.
There wasnt much in early 09 I can remember. So I will jump to the late spring/early summer. This would be known as “The Summer of the Israelis!”
As best as we were told this is what happened. A very wealthy Israeli man gets ahold of Carbon and wants to play online. Which is illegal in Israel. So Carbon obliges. This wealthy man wants to basically run his own Israeli group. So Carbon accepts massive deposits from this guy and this guy dishes money out to generic accounts that his friends used. All of the usernames were like Momo324 or Momo474. It was blatantly obvious who was Israeli and who was not. There is now dozens if not hundreds of Israelis playing decently big stakes and some were playing nosebleeds and they were all awful. Just fucking awful.
This would be the only time I break strict BRM (after the JERRY2009 incident, fwiw I play Jerry a lot more after that he holds his own but I am winner on him). The Israelis were dragging us up to 10knl. There would be 9handed 10knl games with up to three Israelis on them. I sat those games occasionally. I should have sat them more looking back on it. My roll at this point is 200k~ and I keep 100k on Carbon and cash out excess whenever there is some (basically I had strings of checks pending at all times) so 10k wasnt exactly a comfortable loss. I only log 1k~ hands at that stake and I win a couple buy ins at most. I look back at is as a shot I should have taken more, never has there been softer 10knl online. Scout326 (google if unaware of this guy) was better than a lot of these Israelis.
My friends made great money that summer. I did too. When it was dying down a bit I had a 300k roll. Made 100k in a matter of 3-4 months. This would draw some legitimate players into Carbon though. There was always more competition after this event but it was still the best site I was playing.
I email Poker Stars at some point in 2009 asking to be unbanned and provide details of what I am doing on other sites. They oblige and give me my account back.
I grind a bit on there but the games are just not as soft. I book small win rates in FTP and PS cash games. Under 3bb100 when I was doing 2-4x that on Carbon. Was much less stressful on Carbon also. Stars and FTP were mentally draining. Was a lot of really good players at 1knl. So I basically just play Sundays on the big sites and mix games or stuff just for change of pace.
At some point in 2009 I am on a big skid on FTP and have literally 1,061$ in account. I am not going to reload it as I honestly hated FTP. FTP had the smallest average win rates of all sites that were tracked (PTR or Sharkscope/OPR the studs of online and win rates were about 70% of Stars win rates). Now logically this is not crazy as FTP was a tougher field than Stars. Stars had more players and the bulk of people who play multiple sites are competent. I have some data that I think proved FTP is goofy. I want to conceal my usernames in this story but here is what I can show you easily. If you look at high volume MTT players, go back to OPR and dig through results. Wins come in bunches. In an earlier part of this story I mentioned I went 1-1-X-2 in the Sunday 200$ Horse MTT on FTP, then dont cash it for a year? I have looked through my MTT history on FTP and when I win one tourney I almost always have two more top 2 finishes on the same day or next day. DuckU wins back to back Sundays majors on FTP which is insane (he was a stud though).
Now for the final thing that made me hate FTP. This is gonna branch off into a lovely story about my mom. She wants to learn how to play poker so I give her a secondary FTP account I made which dons the same username as my Carbon name, so I keep it concealed. I dont have sharkscope so I cant go reverify the info but she plays almost exclusively 3$ 90 man KOs. She is a terrrrrible poker player. She color tags every single player she plays with with a base color and changes the color if necessary if she likes or dislikes you. The color tags are nothing poker related, and everything like or dislike related. Aggressive players were disliked because they raised her (or people who beat her in a pot). Passive fish were liked (they never raise her) and everyone else was just the neutral color she chose. My mother plays several thousand of these (I had to xfer her money soooo many times) and loses at an impressive rate. However, if you do detailed searches on those 90 mans an odd statistic is seen. She had considerably more first place finishes than ANY other position at the final table. Which is odd, shes brutally bad (sorry mom). I will say that I in no ways ever thought or think any poker site is rigged for anyone. All sites were beatable. The best players win the money, I just think FTP had a boom switch and doom switch I suppose but nothing was aimed at anyone specifically (I guess the claim would be fish gotta eat too to want to keep playing, fate was given artificially on FTP sometimes, I say this as someone who won a good chunk of money on there over my life)
Ok back to having 1,061$ in my account after a big downer on there. Havent cashed any MTT of substance in a while. I dont play much cash on there. Its Monday and I register the 1k Monday. Usually a 300-400 player field.
I remember nothing of the early tourney or even mid tourney but I remember a couple hands from the final table. (Yea I register for total account balance and FT)
6 or 7 handed and I had been card dead, blinding away. I open rip KQhh in early for like 10bb and guy behind rips his 20bb and a big stack jams over that. So we are all in 3 ways.
All three hands shown are my KQhh, the guy behind me has 99ds and the guy behind him has JJhd
Flop animations spread out 2s 3s 9x
Gooooood game me.
Turn 10s
Oh hey I have one out now!
River Jc
Oh hey I hit a one outer!
And just like that I am 30~ bb deep and back in the mix. The 99 busted so I jump a level too.
I have a friend who plays for a living who railed that FT who still brings that hand up. Wont ever forget that hand I dont think, just absurdly dead on flop.
We get down to 3 handed and I open button with J8cc bb defends get a J high flop and I end up stacking my 20bb~ to J9 for 3rd place. Was 39k. Not bad result for case money. I remember sending pic of my account balance to a friend after registering and it was like 89 cents or something.
Some time after that my FTP account crossed over 100k but I dont recall how. I think I had a bit of a cash heater and some marginal scores in MTTs along with trading money from other sites. Just remember having 100k on two different sites which I thought was cool as every dime I ever made from poker stemmed from selling playchips on Stars years earlier.
Pretty late in 09 I move into a nice apartment and for the first time in my life buy a nice vehicle. I was driving the same truck I had in highschool (a 98 ford f150 extended cab with 300,000 miles on it with original motor) and needed a new one badly. So i buy a 2007 F150 loaded up with every feature available (was still a used truck) for 25,000$. This was the moment I felt I had made it to be honest. It felt really good making that purchase. I squander money at the bars (a trip to the bar never cost less than 500$ buying shots and shit. My friends were all day laborers basically so I gladly bought round after round of shots, wasnt really showing off I just wanted to have a good time) and on stupid stuff like RC airplanes that I wreck first flight, telescopes, hockey gear etc but I never bought anything that made me flashier, this truck was the first purchase that did that.
Late in 09 I am at a local casino on the weekend of a 1600$ mtt. Get hammered drunk (live poker was still just a vacation for me) and lose like 10k. The next day I play that MTT. Bag. The next day we come back and I go on a tear and make FT as chip leader. Continue that tear literally making zero mistakes, everything I did was right. Obviously ran well as thats how you do everything right, but I made a few good folds a few 3b/4b/5b with air that were successful, just everything lined up. I win 80k which made me feel better about the 10k I fucked off on that Friday. It remains the only MTT score live of over 25k. I dont play a ton of them, just when they are local and I skip plenty. Id prefer to just play cash forever where I get no tax forms. After this tournament I am at my peak roll basically. I am just shy of a 400k roll when I peak. Had I been disciplined with my money and put more hours in earlier who knows where I would have been. I would guess at this point in my life I had made 700k playing poker, I spent stupid amounts of money had a few pit spews just was reckless in general.
2010 starts off with a trip down under. Aussie Millions is where I was headed. I had won a seat on Carbon. I pack a bag, grab 25,000 in cash, head to the airport and am on my way.
Flying to Australia is a bit of a trip. My flight route went Tulsa to Denver to LAX then to Melbourne. I departed LAX at 10PM on Thursday to show up in Melbourne early Saturday around 9AM. 17~ hour flight and from Oklahoma a 17 hour time difference, forward. Lose a day and a half on that flight. I had taken a few xanax with me for the long flight and had a drink or two right as the flight took off and passed out. I was sitting in a row of 3 seats on the right side of the plane next to a good looking young Australian couple who were headed back from an American vacation. I had the aisle seat (there was a ton of leg room though) and I literally fall asleep an hour ish into flight and wake up at a later time. My contacts were stuck to my eyes from the sleep, could barely open my eyes and I look over and ask them how far out we were. They said “the captain just came on and said were about half an hour out”. Sweet... I slept for like 15 fucking hours, yay xanax, the first time ever drinking and xanax ever did me any good.
I get to my hotel which is a block or two from the Crown Casino and I walk down to take a look. A couple 5-10 seats were open and I hand them some cash and they say I have to exchange for Aussie Dollars. This was right after the recession and the exchange rate at that time was strong for Australia. I think they were 93 cents on the dollar.
I play some cash for a few days. I drink excessively every day. One day at a 10-20 game I am at the table with LuckyChewy BalugaWhale and several other studs (they have zero clue who I am nor need they know) but my drunken self tries to set up a prop bet. I wanna bet 5000$ that I can have a cocktail every half hour for 12 hours and book a win in the game we were at. No one wanted it (I was drunk and they likely wanted me to leave them alone, they were all buddies it seemed).
So my bad ass self decides to just do it anyways. About 6-7 hours in I am pretty fucking drunk and up like 12-13k and my 14-15k stack was made involving 9 1,000$ chips. I remember getting bored of the game that had turned nitty and started putting those 9k chips in without looking. Did it back to back hands and no one called. The third hand I look at AJo and rip the 9 1k chips in the pot again (I kinda remember thinking that this was a value rip after the previous two hands. As if someone would just pile in A8 lol) and a guy with 6-7k calls off. He has QQ and holds.
This session that I was up 12,000~ ends up felting my cash for the trip. Literally go from 12k winner to 20k loser (I was down 5k on trip from playing the 5k HU tourney).
Fortunately for me my aunt was flying down with her girlfriend (yea shes a lesbian) in two days so I called my sister had her get 25k out of my safe give it to my aunt and she would bring me some cash. The next two days I play online in my hotel room. My aunt shows up a couple days later and were back in action!
I end up drinking relentlessly and losing most of that 25k. I busted the 10k main level one barreling three streets with air. I played excellent in Australia to say the least. Probably some of the least disciplined behavior I have ever exhibited. I was in one of the most unique countries on earth for 15 days and never made it more than a mile from the casino and the only reason I made it a mile was I met up with some chick who was an exchange student at my highschool and was from Melbourne (dont worry she wasnt cute). (As a matter of fact I was highly disappointed with the quality of the women in Melbourne).
The only other things worth telling from that trip was escorts were legal, I am pretty sure the strip clubs didnt allow you to tip money to girl on stage (only buy dances) and you couldnt tip the poker dealers. A funny story about the escorts. I hire one one night. I had done this in Vegas a time or two but was always shitfaced when I had done it. I do it sober in Australia. She meets me and I am thinking what the fuck am I doing. Was weird for me. Barely mess around (brief bj was peak) and I am like I cant do this. I felt bad about paying for sex. So I give her 800$ for nothing basically. Just weirded me out knowing how bad that life is. Drunk me would never had a second thought, but sober me did.
I head home stuck 45k or something. Was a bad trip to say the least. This is about the point where things start trending down for me. Im not long after having a 400k roll (I am still near that at this point) and having a massive year (2009 I won over 250k) but some future events will set in motion my downfall, and not hard to predict Black Friday will be part of it. Will post next one soon.
submitted by And the answer is: Yes! It’s 100% legal for Australians to play at online casinos. It is, however, illegal to operate an online casino in Australia, so the sites we recommend operate offshore. While they may be infringing on Australia’s Interactive Gambling Act (IGA) regulations, it is not illegal for players to use the services they offer. We have 100's of free spins for the best online pokies at Australia's favourite online casinos. We update this page on a daily basis with casino free spins on the latest games. which can result in some substantial real money payouts. Free spins are different to no deposit bonuses, where you receive free credits. We explain how to get your hands on free spins, how to make sure that you abide by Joe Fortune. Another top online casino that you can try out in Australia is Joe Fortune. Efficient customer support, player-friendly bonuses, and a great mobile experience make it a great option for Australians. Joe Fortune has been in the casino industry and has proved its mettle and efficiency over the years. The regulation of online casino for Australian players. The state and territory governments in Australia take care of regulating providing casino gaming operations. The government has seen a big interest in gaming. It became important for the government to regulate it and make it safe for the residents. Since 2001, the major law that has been regulating all operations connected to casino is The only current form of legal gambling online in Australia is betting on auto-racing, sports betting and online lottery. There are no Australian online licensed casinos that offer table games and slots. This is because of the Interactive Gambling Act which makes it illegal for Australian based companies to offer online iGambling services to Australian residents or other countries and resulted in several companies pulling out of Australia. However, the laws are targeting companies and there Legitimate Online Casinos Australia, gambling bluefield wv, free money bonus casino, skyrim roulette 4chan. 0. 0. Start Playing on 24VIP Casino read review. Prize pool: 10 free spins no deposit on sign up. Free Spins. $23 No Deposit; Wager: 20x B; No Code Required; Metal Casino: 3 Super Wheel Spins + 100% up to £100 . There's never been a better time to rock out and to sign up to a Metal canada online casinos for real money Legitimate Online Casinos Australia free wheel of fortune game download 21 grand casino. 18:40. How we use cookies . Cookies help us provide, protect and improve our services. We also use cookies to verify your financial information and identity and for fraud prevention purposes. Third parties use cookies on our site to tailor adverts to your interests on Online casino reviews are meant to offer punters the most relevant information they need about a casino in order to decide upon registering a new player account with them or not. Unfortunately, there are plenty of biased, irrelevant, outdated or false casino reviews out there, which is why it is critical to have a trustworthy source to rely on. The Australia-casino.org platform has been Legitimate online casinos are trustworthy online gambling sites where you can play casino games, have fun and win real money. If you are looking for a legit online casino, we are here to help! At LegitimateCasino.com, we know that safety and security are key to having a positive experience playing casino games online.. The legitimacy of an online casino can be determined by evaluating several Cerca epiphone casino tra migliaia di annunci di vendita di usato dei privati maple top material laminate maple color natural neck material mahogany, set. Pittsburgh, pa bingo games supplies bingo supplies. Maracaibo, un video sobre academia-danzas-natali publicado por jesús orta el en el festival casino y timba como invitados especiales de rumba latina.
Comment "LIVE" if you're watching this live and comment "REPLAY" if you're watching the replay.💻 Learn My 3-Step System For Making Money Online: https://Joh... Legitimate online Casino best online casino👉 http://bit.ly/Legitimate-online-casino if you were looking for a legitimate online casino, you are in the right ... Best Online Business 2021 - How To Make Money Online Fast FREE 14 Day Shopify Trial: https://www.shopify.com/?ref=chris-winter1&utm_campaign=oct18-best-onl... Here are some awesome websites to make money online in 2019All of these websites are way to earn an income online.My #1 Recommendation To Make A Full-Time In... Use these 10 websites to make money online for FREE in 2020 - no credit card required! FREE EBOOK: http://wholesaleted.com/4-step MY PRINT ON DEMAND COUR... A lot of people have been asking where to get the bank. Here is the website: https://showforinc.com/?ref=6Save 10% off your purchase of the WinnersBank. Use... Best Way To Make Money Online 2020 (No Money Needed) My #1 Recommendation To Make Money Online FREE Shopify CourseInspired by Millionaire by 21:(2020) Best... Here is how to get Free PayPal money... This is completely legit and legal! This still works and I use this way to get some cash ENJOY THE VIDEO! link to ... My # 1 Way On How To Make Money Online is Here http://6figuresormore.com SUBSCRIBE HERE http://bit.ly/SubscribeHereJayBrownSign up for Yoonla here ht... #1 Recommendation To Make a Full Time Income Online - http://www.EasyOnlineProfitSystem.com★MY COURSES ★ Social Media Mastery - http://tiny.cc/5op44y Ins...
