Exacta Bet Explained - Exacta Box - Exacta Wheel - Horse ...

There was a slight problem with the Amwager site (not for betting, just for posting the blog) so this week's Key Races & Bets blog is below. You can get the podcast here https://ubercapper.podbean.com/
The Demoiselle Stakes is the race for my Keeneland Select blog here https://www.keeneland.com/media/news...ecember-5-2020
The Cigar Mile is the Equibase race of the week here https://www.equibase.com/content/ana...reanalysis.cfm
Key Races & Bets for Saturday December 5 Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website with great betting tools and perks.
Claiming Crown Jewel Stakes - Race 6 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:38 PM Eastern
Jesus’ Team is going to take a LOT of money owing to his runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last month. Perhaps that’s rightfully so but perhaps not, because his LAST WIN came in a 25K non-winners of two lifetime claiming race in May. All his other efforts, consisting of five races where he finished second, third or fourth, came against three year olds and although this included third place finishes in the Jim Dandy and Preakness, they were mostly in short fields and except for Swiss Skydiver, Authentic and Knicks Go, the competition wasn’t that great. He can win and will be used on exacta tickets but there are TWO horses which absolutely can beat him as they’re more seasoned and just as fast.
Those two are Storm Runner and Treasure Trove. Storm Runner won decisively by eight lengths in June when dropping into a claiming race for the first time and therefore qualifying for this starter stakes. He was off for four months before returning in a starter allowance on grass last month and winning pretty easily over Apreciado, who we will see later in the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes. He gets the rail and has superb tactical speed and I have little doubt in my mind the comeback race on 11/4, although on grass was with this race in mind for trainer Romans. He’s won on the GP main track and at anywhere near his starting 4/1 odds is a great win bet. Treasure Trove has been first or second in eight of 10 this year, including his last race in mid-October which was scheduled for turf. He won gamely by a neck and was claimed by Maker, who literally has made a career out of claiming horses and winning stakes. Gaffalione gets the call and was the #1 rider for the barn at Keeneland this fall and this hard-knocking four year old with six wins and three runner-up efforts from 16 dirt races should be in the exacta at the least.
Bets:
Win: Storm Runner and Treasure Trove at 2/1 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas:
Box Storm Runner, Treasure Trove and Jesus’ Team
Doubles:
Race 6: Storm Runner, Treasure Trove and Jesus’ Team
Race 7: Artie’s Rumor, Temple, Over the Channel
Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes - Race 7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:08 PM Eastern
Temple is one of FIVE in this 12 horse field from the Maker barn and as a stakes winner eligible for this starter stakes gets the edge. Better still, he is four-for-eight on the Gulfstream Park turf course and won the Gio Ponti Stakes at the distance in New York one year ago nearly to the week. His last race sets him up for an “A” effort good enough to win here, as he rallied from sixth of 11 early and was getting to the winner with every stride at the end.
Over the Channel opens at 15/1 odds making it very difficult to ignore him when considering wagers in this race. He’s been first or second in six of seven this year, all on turf, and he’s only been worse than second ONE time in six races on the Gulfstream Park turf. Paco Lopez rode him to back-to-back wins in the fall of 2019 and rode him to a runner-up effort last time out at the end of October, off a two month layoff. As such, I expect Over the Channel to run another big race hopefully make us a sweet profit.
Artie’s Rumor is another Maker trainee and its notable Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call. Typical of Maker’s prowess, Artie’s Rumor, who was entered in six straight allowance or starter starter allowance races between January and September, was claimed the first time he was in for a claiming price in September, and IMMEDIATELY won off the claim. The win came at this distance on turf in a pretty tough field and was a CAREER BEST effort, so he’s got a big shot today.
There are at least SIX other horses I’d consider using on exotic tickets around the three contenders above – Apreciado, Tusk, Hieroglyphics, High Noon Rider, Morning Stride and Sniper Kitten.
Bets:
Win: Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor at 3/1 or more.
This is EXACTLY the kind of race where a “Dutching” tool like the free one at Amwager really comes in handy as it proportions your bets based on the odds so you don’t have to do the math for yourself because we can bet two, or even three horses to win at the right odds.
Exactas:
Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor over Temple, Over the Channel, Artie’s Rumor, Apreciado, Tusk, Hieroglyphics, High Noon Rider, Morning Stride and Sniper Kitten.
Box Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor
Trifecta:
Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor over ALL over Temple, Over the Channel and Artie’s Rumor (This covers any two of the three finishing 1st and 3rd and compliments the exacta box)
Sandpiper Stakes - Race 9 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 4:19 PM Eastern
Wholebodemeister returned from a two and one-half month layoff near the end of October and won as she pleased by almost five lengths in spite of having to wait for a path to run on the turn. She had shown promise when winning her second career start in July but finished fifth in a stakes right after that in August. Apparently the short rest did her a world of good as she not only won but did so with a lot of maturity when relaxing in third early. Hot Camacho rides and we should expect nice improvement second off the layoff as well.
Gulf Coast won in her career debut last month with a mature rally from fourth and in spite of going wide on the turn. She’s giving away experience to most of these but appears talented and as she ships in from the other side of the state (she’s been training at Palm Meadows) and gets Gallardo must deserve respect as a contender.
Hara, like Wholebodemeister, has run a number of times, six to be exact. She finished second in her debut then won by six lengths last June, then ran poorly in stakes when shipped from Florida to New York, twice. Rested two months, she was beaten just a neck in a strong effort in October then won last month (in a dead heat) while fighting the last three-eighths of a mile. Centeno gets on and with a good post to stalk whichever horse(s) will want the lead she could be in the thick of the action down to the wire.
Bets:
Win: Wholebodemeister at 5 to 2 or more.
Consider win bets on Gulf Coast and Hara at 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Wholebodemeister, Gulf Coast and Hara.
Wholebodemeister, Gulf Coast and Hara over Wholebodemeister, Gulf Coast, Hara, Special Princess, Little Nesso, Feeling Mischief, Nurse Judy, Battle Cry and Briella.
BONUS RACE – Starlet Stakes - Race 5 at Los Alamitos - Post Time 5:28 PM Eastern (2:28 PM Pacific)
Astute sticks out in this race but is not the favorite. Baffert’s Princess Noor is favored even though she ran a poor fifth when favored in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She didn’t have the figures to win that race and she doesn’t have the figures to win this race either. Astute does and even if Kalypso wants the lead I feel strongly Astute can sit in second early and still win as she pleases.
Bet: Astute to win at odds of 1/1 (even money) or more, a true low odds overlay win bet.

2016 The Preakness daily (May 21th) Race 13

Wild 24hrs.

MONDAY 2.17

One Of The Gimmicks I Use And Have For Years

Post	Horse	Odds
1	Cherry Wine	20-1
2	Uncle Lino	20-1
3	Nyquist	3-5
4	Awesome Speed	30-1
5	Exaggerator	3-1
6	Lani	30-1
7	Collected	10-1
8	Laoban	30-1
9	Abiding Star	30-1
10	Fellowship	30-1
11	Stradivari	8-1

A while back, I mentioned that recording results at most tracks on the same day of week for a month can help you get a better feel of what you can expect. This, in turn, can help you be more prepared and even have more confidence when a week approaches that you are waiting to capitalize on, whether that be betting the favorites or finding something that offers value that will eventually release some of the stress and nervousness that most experience just prior to placing their bets. While I usually do not or can not use this angle on short meets like Saratoga, Keeneland, or Del Mar, I find it very helpful on the tracks with longer meets. However, this year, I have tracked the results for every Saturday on the Saratoga meet thus far, just to see if the angle works on this track like the others and the results is very telling, at least to me. But I will let others make that decision for themshelves.
Through five weekends, there have been 45 races contested on Saturdays. Favorites have won 17 of 45 races for a strike rate of 38%. 2nd choices have won 11 of 45 races for a strike rate of 24%. 3rd choices have won 8 of 45 races for a strike rate of 18%. 4th choices or longer have won 9 of 45 for a strike rate of 20%. Total 45 of 45 races = 100%.
First Saturday, July 13th--- Favorite won 3 of 11 races for a strike rate of 27%, returning $15.50 to win and $22.50 to place, including the ones that did not win but ran 2nd. 2nd choices won 5 of 11 races for a strike rate of 45%, returning a total of $36.10 for a $2 win bet of each, and $27.10 total on place betting the favorite, including ones that did not win but ran 2nd., One 4th choice, one 5th choice, and one 7th choice won 3 of 11 races for a strike rate of 27%. No third choice won a race this Saturday. There were four $1 exacta boxes with the top two choices combined for a strike rate of 36%, with all second choices finishing on top of the favorite in each, resulting in a total return of $37.70. There were three .50 trifecta boxes involving the top three choices(all 3 with the 2nd choice, favorite and third choice in that order) for a strike rate of 27%, resulting in a total return of $56.52.
Betting the minimum allowed throughout this day the result were as followed; Winning Favorites(3) returned 15.50 and 22.50 to place(6) for a total of $38 on $44 risked for a loss of $6. 2nd choices winners(5) returned $36.10 and $27.50 to place(6) for a total of $63.60 on $44 risked for a net profit of $19.60. As mentioned above the exactas returned $37.70 on $22 total risked for a net profit of $15.70 and trifecta, as also mentioned above, returned $56.52 on $33 risked for a net profit of $23.52. Total risked betting the minimum on each wager(with a realistic shot at cashing) was $143 and total returned was $195.82. Total profit was $52.82 or a ROI of 31%. All prices were taken off equibase results charts.
1st Race: 2nd choice @ 1.90-1 won, favorite finished 2nd @ 1.30-1, 4th choice finished 3rd @ 6.70-1.
2nd Race: 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, favorite @ 2.35-1, 5th choice @ 6.40-1.
3rd Race: Favorite @ 1.40-1, 4th choice @ 4.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.35-1. Five horse field.
4th Race: Favorite @ 1.45-1, 7th choice(of 8) @ 19.10-1, 5th choice @ 9.70-1.
5th Race: Favorite @ 1.90-1, 3rd choice @ 4.80-1, 4th choice @ 5.40-1.
6th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.95-1, 3rd choice @ 5.30-1, favorite @ 2.35-1.
7th Race: 7th choice(of 9) @ 10.80-1, 2nd choice @ 3.35-1, favorite @ 2.20-1.
8th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.70-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.85-1.
9th race: 2nd choice @ 1.90-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 3rd choice @ 2.90-1.
10th Race: 5th choice @ 12.60-1, 6th choice @ 13.30-1, favorite @ .85-1.
11th Race: 4th choice @ 5.30-1, 7th choice @ 12.30-1, 3rd choice @ 4.70-1.
On this Saturday, favorites ran in the money(1,2,3) in 10 of 11 races(3-4-3) or 90%. While that can be useful in exotic bets, you will need more to make your ROI on WP look decent. 2nd choices ran in the money 6 of 11 races(5-1-0) or 55%. Again reasonable but more is needed, at least for me. Third choices ran in the money a total of 6 of 11 races(0-2-4). An outsider(4th choice or longer) ran in the money 11 times(3-4-4) or 33% but only 8 of 11 different races or 73%, combining for 2 exactas, 2 trifectas with the heavy favorite 3rd in one and the third choice finishing third in the other. and a 7th choice on top of the second choice in second and favorite in third on another exacta/tri payoff.
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2nd Saturday, July 20th--- Canceled due to heat wave and not included in results which would make this even more telling.
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3rd Saturday, July 27----- Favorites won 3 of 12 races for a winning rate of 25%, returning $15.50 to win and $24.50 to place(7 total) for a total return of $40 on $48 risked, a loss of $8. 2nd choices won 2 of 12 races for a strike rate of 17%, returning $20.40 to win and 28.20 to place(5) on $48 risked, a profit of .60. Four $1 exacta boxes combining the two favorites for a strike rate of 33% and returned S44.70 on $24 risked, returning a profit of $20.70. Two .50 trifecta boxes came thru with the three top choices, for a strike rate of 17%, returning a total of $37.65 on $36 risked , for a net profit of $1.65. Betting each wager resulted in a total of $156 risked and a return of $168.95, a profit of $12.95.
On this weekend, favorites ran in the money 9 of 12 races(3-4-2) or 75%. 2nd choices finished 1,2,3, in 8 of 12 races(2-5-1) or 67%. Third choices finished in the money 6 of 12 races(3-0-3) or 50%. Outsiders finished in the money 10 of 12 different races or 83%,and a total of 13 placings(4-4-5) out of 36 possibilities or 36%.
1st Race: Favorite @ 2.05-1, 2nd choice @ 3.45-1, 10th choice @ 37.75-1.
2nd Race: 3rd Choice @ 3.30-1, favorite @ 2.70-1, 4th choice @ 5.10-1.
3rd Race: 4th choice @ 6.60-1, favorite @ 2.60-1, 5th choice @ 7.50-1.
4th Race: Favorite @ .70-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, 3rd choice @ 5.40-1.
5th Race: 2nd choice @ 3.10-1, favorite @ 3.00-1, 3rd choice @ 3.25-1.
6th Race: 8th choice @ 22.70-1. 4th choice @ 5.80-1, 2nd choice @ 3.75-1.
7th Race: 2nd choice @ 5.10-1, 8th choice @ 13.50-1, favorite @ 2.40-1.
8th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.20-1, 4th choice @ 5.90-1, 6th choice @ 10.00-1.
9th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.80-1, 6th choice @ 29.75(longest shot), favorite @ .50-1.
10th Race: 6th choice @ 13.60-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, 3rd choice @ 3.80-1.
11th Race: 4th choice @ 4.60-1, favorite @ 1.60-1, 2nd choice @ 2.70-1.
12th Race: favorite @ 2-1, 2nd choice @ 3.15-1, 9th choice @ 51.25-1.
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4th Saturday, August 3----- Favorites won 5 of 11 races or 45%, returning $30.90 to win and 21.30 to place(6) for a return of $52.20 on the risk of $44 for a profit of $8.20. 2nd choices won 2 races or 18%, returning 19.40 to win and 14.70 to place(3) for a return of 34.10, a loss of $9.90 on $44 risked. There were no exactas combining the two favorites that paid off and only one .50 trifecta with the first three choices boxed that returned $10.60 on a total $55 risked, thereby resulting in losses of $44.40 on the two exotic wagers. Total return of $97.90 on $143 risked would have resulted in a loss of $45.10, basically wiping out all your winnings for the first month of Saratoga's meet.
On this Saturday, favorites ran in the money 8 of 11 races(5-1-2) or 73% and even though most that ran well won, the net ROI was below acceptable because their win % is much higher than the long term average. Second choices ran in the money 5 of 11 races(2-1-2) or 46% resulting in no exactas and only one trifecta box, which is extremely rare. 3rd choices ran in the money 5 of 11 races(2-3-0) or 46%. But all was bet heavier than a third choice normally can be expected. Outsiders hit the board 14 times out of 33 possibilities(42%) but finished on top 2 of 11 or 18%, so bet even those two right resulted in a net loss. This was a weekend that betting superfectas really paid off, but extremely difficult to find the winning combinations, that is the ones that paid well.
1st Race: Favorite @ 2.40-1, 6th choice @ 9.90-1, 4th choice @ 8.30-1.
2nd Race: Co-2nd choice @ 4.20-1, 6th choice @ 12.90-1, 4th choice @ 7.50-1.
3rd Race: 2nd choice @ 3.50-1, 6th choice @ 17.80-1, 10th choice(longest) @ 25.50-1.
4th Race: 3rd choice @ 5.60-1, 5th choice @ 8.60-1, 6th choice @ 8.70-1.
5th Race: 4th choice @ 5.50-1, 2nd choice @ 2.20-1, favorite @ 1.75-1.
6th Race: 5th choice @ 10.70-1, favorite @ 1-1, 8th choice @ 26.50-1.
7th Race: Favorite @ 1.95-1, 3rd choice @ 3.60-1, 4th choice @ 5.40-1.
8th Race: 3rd choice @ 3.25-1, 2nd choice @ 3.60-1, favorite @ 2.35-1.
9th Race: favorite @ .85-1, 4th choice @ 8.50-1, 2nd choice @ 4.60-1.
10th Race: favorite @ 2.20-1, 3rd choice @ 2.75-1, 2nd choice @ 2.60-1.
11th Race: favorite @ 3.05-1, 3rd choice @ 5.00-1, 5th choice @ 8-1.
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Saturday, August 10------ Now we have cycled and begin the second and last month of Saratoga meet this year. Favorites won 6 of 11 races or 55% and returned $33.20 to win and $24.30 to place(7), resulting in a return of $57.50 on $44 risked and a net profit of $13.50. Second choice won 2 of 11 or 18% and returned 13.10 for the win and 19.10 for the place(5) for a net return of $32.20 and a loss of $11.80 on the $44 risked. There were 3 exactas or 27% with the first two choices that returned $25.40, for a net profit of $3.40. There were also 3 trifectas involving the top three choices or 27% that returned $55.76 on the risk of $33 for a net profit of $22.76.
On this Saturday, favorites finished in the money 8 of 11 races(6-1-1) or 73%. Second choices finished in the money 6 of 11 races(2-3-1) or 55%. Third choice finished in the money 6 of 11 races(3-0-3) or 55 %. Outsiders(4th choice or higher) hit the board 13 out of 33 possibilities or 39% but did not finish on top in any race of the 11.
1st Race: 2nd choice @ 2.50-1, favorite @ 1.65-1, 3rd choice @ 4.10-1.
2nd Race: favorite @ 3.30-1, 5th choice @ 5.40-1, 6th choice @ 7,70-1.
3rd race: favorite @ 1.25-1, 2nd choice @ 2.50-1, 3rd choice @ 4.30-1.
4th Race: favorite @ 2.30-1, 7th choice @ 18.40-1, 3rd choice @ 4.60-1.
5th Race: 2nd choice @ 2.05-1, 7th choice @ 22.80-1, 5th choice @ 11.60-1.
6th race: 3rd choice @ 2.95-1, 5th choice @ 11.80-1, 4th choice @ 9.20-1.
7th Race: favorite @ .60-1, co-4th choice @ 7.50-1, 6th choice @ 10.70.
8th Race: favorite @ 1.55-1, 2nd choice @ 2.35-1, 5th choice @ 8.20-1.
9th Race: 3rd choice @ 5-1, 2nd choice @ 2.95-1, favorite @ 1.85-1.
10th Race: favorite @ 1.60-1, 7th choice @ 19.10-1, 4th choice @ 4.30-1.
11th Race: 3rd choice @ 4.90-1, 5th choice @ 6.40-1, 2nd choice @ 4.80-1.
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Now, I can not tell you if this information will help you. But I can tell you it helps me immensely at the tracks I have used it on. But I know exactly what help I am looking for before charting. Not only does it point me to the weeks that I probably can find value, it also points me to weeks where value will be limited and that is what helps me the most. The rest is on me to find the value and using this information gives me a ideal of who to use with them. The last time I charted a track, I went on an exacta and trifecta hitting streak by matching up week of month to the day I charted, on a four week interval. The only problem I have had using this information is when there is a five week in a given month, which normally occurs every third month. Then I have to make a slight adjustment or risk getting thrown off my pattern. It works for me and has for years, when I take time out and do the research. This is only one of several gimmicks that I use that gives me an added edge over the unprepared bettor, which is usually all I need.

Saratoga Selections For 7-27-2019

I have not done much good this year at Saratoga. The days I have chosen to bet this track this year has been the days I should have looked elsewhere, as some horses I liked have came thru at tracks I normally try to concentrate at least partially on. However, this weekend is mostly favorite day at most tracks, so while I wait for the tracks to cycle back around to the weeks I want to bet them, I will try to break out of my funk at Saratoga by betting a little less and spreading a little more. I have never try what I am about to try at any track in more than 40 years of betting, so you may want to proceed with caution. However, I am not one to keep trying the same old thing over and over when it is not working at a particular track. As I was researching my past bets at Saratoga this week, I saw a glaring weakness that can be rectify and made to work for me. While I am satisfied with my exacta box and WP bets, I could not find even one wager where I cash a trifecta and/or superfecta that paid near a grand or more, a type of wager that is successful for me at most other tracks.

Race 1: This race looks like it will come down to four horses for the win to me.
3)Teachable Moment(5-2) Brown trains and the one to beat.
10)South West Bay(9-2) Ward trains. Sire was sprint champion in England in 2013 & 2014 and South West Bay is a member of his first crop. Broodmare sire, Sixties Icon is a G1 winner and from the first crop of Galileo.
11)I'm Looking Up(8-1) Dallas Stewart trains and he is a son of the speedy Speightstown. 2nd place finisher(favorite in this race) of his last was my 45-1 special first time starter that also ran second in his first start on Clark H. day at CD and I'm Looking Up simply could not run down any of the three who broke out in front of him in his last.
5)Knockout Punch(10-1) Hough trains and while his works are ok, he will need to run faster in this race to beat some of these.
I will box these four on a dime super, then using a key wager, will add 2 more underneath and spread a little for a save and a bomb payoff. I will use 2)Azzedine(30-1) and 7)Mo Fun(8-1) in the 3rd and 4th spots.
My Bets: $5 Ex Box 10-11(Total $10), $1 Tri Box 3-10-11(Total $6), .50 Tri Key 3-10-11 with 3-10-11 with 2-3-10-11($6 Total), .10 Super Box 3-5-10-11(Total $2.40), .10 Super Key 3-10-11 with 3-10-11 with 2-3-5-7-10-11 with 2-3-5-7-10-11(Total $7.20), .50 Super Key 11 with 3-5-10 with 2-3-5-10 with 2-3-5-10(Total $9). Total Risk This Race($40.60).
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2nd Race: I only like two horses in here and will only bet an exacta box.
5)Bossy Bride(8-1) is the one I like to win but I don't like her enough to risk WP money on.
3)Doll Collection(3-1) is the reason I will not risk WP money on my top choice, but I have risk money on her, to little avail. She is bred to run though and it is only a matter of time before she graduates against this type.
My Bets: $5 Ex Box 3-5. Total Risk($10).
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3rd Race: Another race that looks up for grabs, but also the type of race that usually offer serious money if you can pick it correctly. I think the win will come down to two horses, both decent odds but underneath will be the tricky part.
7)Shekky Shebaz(15-1) Adam Rice, the nephew of Linda Rice, trains. He has given the call to Jose Ortiz, who normally rides for Linda when she has a live horse. Third start this year but moves from the AWT at Presque Isle Down to the grass off two bullet works.
3)Soul P Say(12-1) was claimed out of his last and tries the grass for the first time after 23 starts on dirt. What is amazing about that is his sire, Soldat, a son of War Front, broke his maiden in the G3 With Anticipation S on grass, then ran 2nd in both the G2 Pilgrim S after a troubled trip & G2 BC Juvenile Turf(first running), looking like the winner in deep stretch before Pluck blew by him late. This is where bloodlines helps me the most, by identifying horse that spends a large part of their career at the wrong distance or the wrong surface. He qualifies on both.
10)Sir Ballantine(12-1) is another I will use underneath. While he has tried grass on three occasions with a third the best effort, they came at distances of 1 1/16 miles twice and 1 5/16 mile once but he ran an even race in all three. His only three wins against winners came at 7 furlongs and 1 mile twice, though he has spent most of his career running longer because of his late running style. But his pedigree suggests he will do much better at a mile or less.
2)Frisky Magician(7-2) is another who will be trying late and could actually win this. Trainer Jason Servis drops him into a spot where he has a chance of winning on paper but is willing to lose him via the claiming box, an indication he may have lost a step or two. Otherwise, why risk losing a horse that was just reclaimed by the previous owner two starts back?
5)Mission Command(8-1) is the last one I will include underneath. He has won on grass twice and trainers has used the dirt each of the last two years to get him in top shape. His best race last year came in his fourth start of the year on grass when second, the race he was claimed out of by current owners, but he had won his last start in an off the turf allowance race in 2017, cycled out of form and returned to his best form in that effort. Then he had three previous starts on dirt to begin this year before the break and was making his first grass start of the year in his last, also his fourth start this year.
My Bets: $5 WP 7($10), $5 Ex Box 3-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-3-7($6), .50 Tri Key 3-7 with 2-3-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10($9), .10 Super Box 2-3-7-10(2.40), .10 Super Key 3-7 with 2-3-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10 with 2-3-5-7-10($3.60). Total Risk($41).
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Race 4: I will bet this race the way I normally bet because maiden special weights races is where I have my most success at Saratoga. There are several in here that was purchased for a lot of money at auctions.
5)Kowalski(4-1) is my choice to win. He has made one start and after breaking poorly, he made a good run to get into contention before flatting out against a runaway winner who had a perfect trip. Two good works and with a better break, should make him the one to beat.
9)Sonneman(8-1) is my choice for second. He is a first time starter with some above average works.
1)Shoplifted and 1A)Soviet(8-5) are coupled and both are first time starters.
2)No Bad Days(20-1) is my choice for fourth.
My Bets: $5 WP 5($10), $5 Ex Box 5-9($10), Tri Box 1-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-5-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 5 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9 with 1-2-9($3). Total Risk $31.40.
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5th Race: I will use six horses that I believe has a shot.
10) Dream Friend(5-1), 4)Combatant(8-1), 5)Prioritize(10-1), 1)C.C. Rider(12-1), 9)Keep Quiet(6-1), 8)Westerland(15-1).
My Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-10($6), .10 Super Box 1-4-5-10($2.40), .10 Super Key 4-10 with 4-5-10 with 1-4-5-8-9-10 with 1-4-5-8-9-10($4.80), .50 Super Key 4-10 with 4-5-10 with 1-4-5-10 with 1-4-5-10($4). Total Risk $27.20.
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6th Race: I will use 5 horses in here.
3)Tequila Sunday(30-1), 5)Flashpackinbarbie(3-1), 12)Collegeville Girl(12-1), 1)Makin' Out(6-1), 9)More Mischief(9-2).
My Bets: $10 WP 3($20), $5 Ex Box 3-12($10), $1 Tri Box 3-5-12($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-12($2.40), .10 Super 3-5-12 with 3-5-12 with 1-3-5-9-12 with 1-3-5-9-12($3.60). Total Risk $42.00
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7th Race: Another 6 horses I will center my risk around.
7)Hard Sting(12-1), 4)Proven Strategies(10-1), 6)Are You Kitten Me(6-1), 9)Fame To Famous(20-1), 5) Economic Policy(5-2), 2)Blanket Of Roses(6-1), And if the 11)Eagerly(7-2) draws in, I will drop one of the latter two and replaced with this one.
My Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 4-6-7($6), .50 Tri Key 6-7 with 4-6-7-9 with 4-6-7-9($6), .10 Super Box 4-6-7-9($2.40), .10 Super Key 6-7 with 4-6-7 with 4-5-6-7-9 with 2-4-5-6-7-9($3.60). Total Risk $48.
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8th Race: Normal Bets.
3)Puttheglassdown(12-1), 7)Frosted Grace(10-1), 8) Dark N Cloudy(10-1), 9)Overdeliver(3-1).
$5 WP 3($10), $5 Ex Box 3-7($10), $1 Tri Box 3-7-8($6), .10 Super Box 3-7-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 3 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9($6). Total Risk $34.40.
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9th Race: Normal Bets.
6)Diamond Oops(12-1), 3)Imperial Hint(3-1), 4)Firenze Fire(9-2), 7)Do Share(15-1).
$5 WP 6($10), $5 Ex Box 3-6($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-6($6), .10 Super Box 3-4-6-7($2.40), $1 Super Key 3 with 4-6 with 4-6-7 with 4-6-7($4) Total Risk $32.40.
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10th Race: Will use 5 horses in this race.
3) Ya Primo(8-1), 10) Channel Cat((12-1), 1)Arklow(9-2), 6)Highland Sky(20-1), 2) Sadler's Joy(6-1).
$10 WP 3($20), $5 Ex Box 3-10($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-10($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-6-10($2.40), .50 Super Key 3 with 1-10 with 1-2-6-10 with 1-2-6-10($6). Total Risk $44.40.
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11th Race: Abbreviated Normal Bets.
4)Global Campaign(2-1), 3)Milos(15-1), 5)Tacitus(7-5), 1)Laughing Fox(15-1).
$5 Ex Box 3-4($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-5($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-5($2.40). Total Risk $18.40.
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12th Race: I will use 5 horses.
9)No Mo Promises(15-1), 10) Givethemanacigar(20-1), 8)Coach Villa(30-1), 5)Surge Pricing(2-1), 4)My Macho(5-1).
$5 WP 9($10), $5 Ex Box 9-10($10), $1 Tri Box 4-9-10($6), .10 Super Box 4-5-9-10($2.40), .10 Super Key 9-10 with 4-9-10 with 4-5-8-9-10 with 4-5-8-9-10($2.40). Total Risk $30.80.
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These will be my risks for this weekend. By my estimates, I will risk $400.40 and this at least gives me a variety of bets which I can recoup the initial investment and make a grand or so, if the horses I like finally decides to wake up and gives an honest effort. If they don't, I will turn the page and give another effort next week, like I have always done. I go through slumps every year and always have, but the difference now and 20 years ago is I now recognize my slumps and have the patience to wait for the signals that my slump is over. But I would not know for sure unless I take minor chances and bet like I normally bet.

SUNDAY 2.16

LrL
1st Gallerio – being competitive in its last two waiver claiming race, this Claudio (31%) trained gelding gets class relief and retains hot jockey Alex Cintron (35% last 10 days). Look for a strong late kick.
3rd Sweet Talking Girl – Graham Motion trainee should take this one rather readily
5th Heatherly – taking choker Trevor and Jamie Ness 1st after the claim. I know, some may argue about McCarthy, however, if you check his record in races above allowance level, you’ll find it to be shit.
7th Life In Flash – Claudio is 20% with last out winners, 31% with Victor Rosales and this filly loves Laurel 6:4-1-0. Now, hopefully Victor gets her off that dead ass rail.
GP
1st Remanded – it would be just like Cherie DeVaux to take down the heavy fave with this first timer. Cheri is 29% in this situation and 33% with Tyler Gafflione. The dam, which I place more importance on than the sire since she can only foal once a year, has had one foal who debuted at Mth for a strong 2nd in similar company, scoring an Equibase 77.
3rd Frenchmen Street – one of only two entrants for Saffie today and I’ll be betting both.
4th Shes One Mad Momma – I love betting horses like this. The trainer, in this case, Kathleen O’Connell, has been trying, in the last five, different distances, claiming levels and surfaces trying to find a spot where her horse can win. If not for being steadied inside while making a bold move last race, she’d have her most recent victory. Now, coming back to the exact same conditions, she will be very competitive in this and win it.
5th Watch both of Pletcher’s entries chase each other - Mrs. S and Cat Lady. Stablemates who have worked out together, routinely repeat the same in races and make for interesting results. I’ll work in the 2 & 5 in a tri bet
6th Act Like Artie – Mike Maker getting 2nd Lasix and first Irad. Had a sweet gate work on Feb 2nd going 5f in 1:01.8. 2nd time out, improved effort.
7th Bahamian Prince – George Weaver and Paco Lopez are 40% winners and this guy 4:2-0-1 for $41K, which bests the rest
8th Lemonist – Vettori Kin is going to put up one helluva fight and Lemonist will prevail. Add Prince Of Arabia for an exacta or tri box.
9th Enlisting – smokin’ hot trainer Gustavo Delgado (38% last 30 days) and jockey Jaramillo (35% together) have a live class dropper. Look for her to press the pace and take over at the turn.
10th Foolish Humor – going with Wesley Ward and Johnny V in this spot. 6 months on the bench for this filly after a fruitful two-year-old campaign. She’s had a steady diet of strong workouts and will be substantive here.
Tam
5th Americano – less than ten days ago, this Tiznow gelding comes right back to the same level. Last race, he ran into all kinds of traffic trouble in the stretch and still got up for 2nd.
7th Cpl Dionicio – Bennett trainee gets class relief from two weeks ago where he looked for racing room in the stretch and got hung. Should get an easier go today
Aqu
1st Mutakaamil or Perceived – Chad Brown vs. Chad Brown? Take your pick.
2nd Bossy Bride – going with Rob Atras and Junior
4th Appletini – Leah Gyarmati 27% last 30 days, 23% when winning last and 23% with jockey Luis Cardenas. This will be a good test for her against Aqueduct heavyweights Linda Rice, Chris Engelhart, Scott lake et al.
6th Aunt Babe - With the pace setting up in front of her, I’m going to bet this lady. She is a strong closer, so, look for Jose Lezcano to come flying in the stretch and taking this.
7th I Love Jackson – Linda Rice, Jose Lezcano, won last, hitting peak form…should be a good bet.
8th Bank On Shea – Jason Servis/Jose Lezcano 33%. In its last race, a win, the runner up returned to improve his Equibase figure by 15%.
9th Hizaam – short price on this horse and there’s a reason – he’s a helluva lot better than the rest
The rest –
FG
2nd Honeywhiskeynwine – Best Bet Of The Day and Best Price
3rd Carter Cat
4th Jus Dream Big
9th Kowboy’s Bobo
OP
1st Spectacular Temper
3rd Hamazing Vision
4th Our Girl Abby
5th The Devils Daddy
6th Honor With Pride
7th Temple Bar
8th Hoptown Honey
9th Icecap
TuP
6th Rolls Royce Deal
GG
4th Vastly Deep
6th St James Place
Wong – 3-5-7-8-9
SA
1st Bella D
3rd Too Much Smoke
4th J Z My Man
7th Shines Her Light
8th My Journey

THURSDAY 2.20

For those of you keeping score at home, yesterday, I had $48 in bets, $98.30 in payoffs, for a 104% roi.
From Smartcap and posted today on bettorsinsider.com
Aqu
1st $60K MSW for NY bred fillies and mares that are four and up going six furlongs
Best Last - #6 Midnight Banker (7/5) 69/73
Best Last Two - #2 Anydayisherday (6/1) 76/60
Best Overall Speed – Anydayisherday 62.6
Best Overall Class – Midnight Banker 63.9
Selection(s): #6 w/exacta 6/1-2
Notes: #3 & #4 are both first time starters whose trainers record is 0% each. The third place finisher of #6 returned to win going from Equibase fig of 73 to 87. The winner of that race has yet to run. #1 Enough Love (8/5) retains jockey Jose Lezcano, is running in its second race off two year layoff and showed good spring last race. This almost feels like his second race, so look for improvement.
2nd One mile, $32K Claiming Race for four year olds and up
Best Last - #3 Royal Albert Hall (7/5) 88/104, #5 Majid (6/1) 75/106
Best Last Two – Royal Albert Hall 105/70
Best Overall Speed - #4 Siding Spring (8/5) 98
Best Overall Class – Majid 111.7, Royal Albert Hall 107.1, Siding Spring 104.5
Selection(s) #4 – will be the lone speed
Notes: #3’s trainer, Rob Atras coming off a hot week going 5:2-1-1, is 21% with Manny Franco. #4 is trained by Antonio Arriaga 25% and is 41% with Carmouche.
3rd $80K Optional Claimer for three year olds foaled in New York going six furlongs
Best Last - #4 Notorious Flirt (9/5) 99/104
Best Last Two - #2 Hold My Call (8/1) 87.5/290
Best Overall Speed - #4 Notorious Flirt 83.8, #3 Power Up Paynter (7/2) 83.8
Best Overall Class - #6 Mission Wrapitup (10/1) 71
Selection(s) – Notorious Flirt
Notes: #6’s trainer, Bruce Brown and jockey Eric Cancel, 25% wins. Cancel, hot jockey last week scoring 21:9-0-4. Set the pace last out before tiring and is with the #1 Impetuous (8/5) are the lone speed.
4th $60K MSW for NY foaled four year olds and up going one mile
Best Last - #2 Moonlight Now (6/1) 83/82 #7 Dancers For Token (6/5) 81/83
Best Last Two – Dancers For Token 91/64
Best Overall Speed – Dancers For Token 80.1
Best Overall Class – Dancers For Token 78.5
Selection(s): Clever Fellow
Notes: choker Trevor McCarthy on #7 and has never raced for trainer Robbie Davis (0%). #2 retains leading rider Junior Alvarado. Solid works since last out. #6, trained by Chad Brown (6:3-0-1 last week) and ridden by Manny Franco (23%). Gets 2nd lasix and 1st gelding 1.26.19. Brown 30% with horses odd 6+ months.
5th $62.5K Optional Claimer going six furlongs for NW other than fillies and mares
Best Last - #3 Posse Needed (12/1) 118/78, #4 Our Circle Of Love (1/1) 81/107, #5 Slimey (6/1) 81/107
Best Last Two - #2 New Year’s Wish (8/5) 96/100, Our Circle Of Love 96/100
Best Overall Speed – Posse Needed 127.3
Best Overall Class – Our Circle Of Love 117.8
Selection(s): #4 Our Circle Of Love
Notes: #2 New Year’s Wish will take a lot of money as jockey/trainer combo hitting 28%. #4 has been beaten by a total of 23.5 lengths in its last two.
6th
Best Last - #2 Cause Of Action (7/2) 90/36, #3 Charge Ahead (5/2) 57/81
Best Last Two - #3 Charge Ahead (5/2)
Best Overall Speed – Charge Ahead 86.5
Best Overall Class – Charge Ahead 123.8
Selection(s): #3 Charge Ahead
Notes: #2’s trainer, Chris Engelhart, listed on Brisnet as the hottest trainer 11:5-1-1. #4 coming off a won and first claim for Mike Maker (15%). 23% with Jorge Vargas. #3 second on dirt after shipping from Woodbine’s tapeta. Retains Junior and should get an improved trip. #6 Justice Of War (2/1) will take money due to Rice/Lezcano (28%) connection.
GP
1st Smoke Alarm - take a shot on a 15-1er in his second time out. Trainer Dennis Manning 33% overall and Edgar Prado 21%. Had three sharp works since last, scored an Equibase 83 in his only race, 2nd best to the rest of the field. 2nd lasix and a great price...hopefully.
4th Holy Meister - Mark Casse trained and Edgar Zyas ridden (22% together), this Holy Bull gelding set the pace in a mile and an eighth last out before tiring. Today he gets a cutback in distance and should wire this group.
5th Range Of Motion - simple equation Chad Brown + Irad Jr. + turf race = V
6th R Kiss Em' Goodbye - Georgina Baxter 5:2-1-1 last week and 23% with Edgar Zayas (slumoing last week 12:0-0-3. Georgina 41% class down, 21% drt2trf, and 33% overall. Exacta box 4-5-1
9th R Prerogative - "R" horses by Georgina have been good to me of late, so why beat a dead horse?
OP - going with an odd angle today. Asmussen didn't win a race at OP all day and I'm betting his three entries - 5th Zing Zang, 8th Kiss The Girl, 9th Chateau Hope.
FG
1st Monarchos Prayer - 1st off claim for Karl Broberg (29%). Broberg 29% with last winner, 28% in claiming races and 28% with jockey Colby Hernandez
4th Breezy Bee - Desormeaux still sizzlin' at FG hitting 9:3-3-1 last week. He's 21% with leading rider James Graham and 24% for the meet.
7th Steadytillready - 2nd out, 2nd lasix for trainer Jose Camejo. Thus far, only Camejo and jockey Declan Carroll 2-2. Just smoked a 5f gate work in 1:01.4. Will improve enough to win
TP
5th Dreams Are Pazible - Cipriano (27%) mare retains jockey Joseph Ramos (31% together) who won in her last time. Cipriano 27% with last time winners and 20% moving horses up in class.
CT
3rd Top Pick - jockey Denis Araujo 34% last 10 days takes the reins for this last out winner and first time claimer
6th Ravin' Maven - Runco/Bocachica 34%, Runco 48% with 1st timers, 48% with 1st lasix and 40% in msw

Getting Ready for the Haskell!

My Choices For Saturday At Saratoga 08-17-2019.

I have always played the ponies by trying to find a edge no one thinks of and/or does not believe in. Most everyone's else biggest problem is they want to follow what others are doing because they feel it has been proven. And in most cases they are right, but then you have to settle for prices that will guarantee you will struggle until you get so tired of losing you either give up or have to find a better way. The way I do things is far from the only things you can do to have success, but fits my way of thinking and beliefs. All of my beliefs all backed up with stats that I have researched, but often everyone wants it to be opinion based, the quickest way to failure. Everyone has opinions but most does not have the same thought process on why something may or may not work, but only a few has data from research that backs up their belief. You can either do that research yourself or play the blame game why something can not work. It is your choice, but until you do the actual research, it is only your opinion. It amazes me the bettors who thinks they know everything when they have researched nothing.
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1st Race: I have two sets of picks as this race is scheduled for the grass. However, if it taken off the grass and half or more of the field is scratched, then I will pass on betting this race. Either way, I will thread lightly as this field looks wide open.
If race stays on grass: I like 1A Digital Software(5-2 ML), 5) Leading West(12-1), 9)Acre(10-1), 3) Anoconda(9-2) in that order. If it is more to dirt, then 1)Market Impact(5-2 ML, Coupled with the 1A), 8)Fort McHenry(3-1), 5)Leading West(12-1), 3)Anoconda(9-2), in that order.
1 and 1A(5-2 and coupled if both draws in, so you will get both with bet). Most likely winners, one on grass and the other looks tough on dirt.
5)Leading West(12-1) Ran against a coupled(1 & 1A) expensive first time starters and a highly regarded horse in first start and they dominated, though about 1 length from missing third in an even effort. Like him on grass and even more if race is moved to dirt,as he has a better dirt pedigree. However, Distorted Humor foals is known for liking grass and loving off tracks.
9)Acre(10-1) debuted in same race as above choice, flashing some speed then tiring and finished just behind Leading West. However, his broodmare sire is Galileo, so he will prefer the surface switch more than choice above, especially if firm, but distance is still slightly shorter than he will do his best at. I have yet to see a Galileo foal that really likes dirt, which Galileo did not also, so I will toss him if the race is moved to dirt.
3)Anaconda(9-2) should be able to dispute the early pace and hang on for a piece. Both sire(Pioneerof The Nile) and grandsire(Empire Maker) ran only on dirt, but both has pedigrees than ran as good or better on grass. While Brown looks like he has him prepared for a better run on grass than dirt, he should have a say in the outcome on both surfaces.
Grass Bets(scratched dirt bets if left on grass): $5 Ex Box 1-5($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-9($2.40). Total Risk: $18.40. Dirt Bets(If moved off grass only) $5 Ex Box 1-8($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-8($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-8($2.40), .50 Super 1-8 with 1 3 5 8 with 1 3 5 8 with 1 3 5 8($6). Total Risked $24.40.
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2nd Race: Cheap claiming race, but at least know the surface race will be ran on. As long as the track is not sloppily, I will try to beat Brown's horse as she has set her own pace in her last two and could not finish in either.
3)Figure It Out(12-1) Will look past last as she broke slowly and could not make up ground on a loose on the lead filly. Races before that fits with these. Two good works since last. Working on third start since a winning effort.
1)Miss Imperial(8-5) Has faced stakes company in last four, so this spot should be easier than she has seen in a while. Rail is normally dead on fast track, but evens out slightly more on off track, but the main reason she is my second choice and not first.
5)Miss Marcela(15-1) Should be with the early pace but looks most likely of those that will continue to give an honest effort. Given 2 1/2 month break after a poor effort in first grass attempt. Possible she is off form as her running lines since her last win seems to be suggesting. Not a great workout pattern either. However, she is in care of long time trainer that has good stats with horses off freshening.
6)Carrizo(5-2) has highest lifetime Beyers which she achieved in last in this field against lesser but was claimed by current connections. However, her Beyers was not much higher that her previous high which only the favorite has a higher figure than that, so that makes her a contender with these.
Bets: $5 WP 3($10), $5 Ex Box 1-3($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-5($6), .10 Super 1-3-5-6($2.40). Total Risk $28.40.
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3rd Race: Another field that looks wide open for maiden claiming:
7)All About It(2-1) Making first start of year off a less than ideal work pattern. However, both starts last year came against much tougher than he faces in here while narrowly beaten in both, so he is the one to beat.
6)Game Boy Benny(8-1) Looks like the front running speed in here and may prove to be too tough to catch, especially on a soggy course, either dirt or grass. Nice work pattern since his last makes him the biggest threat to top choice.
10)Oroscopo(10-1) Making first start of the year and first start as a gelding. New connections takes over training. Has a workout pattern that is slightly off my ideal pattern, but trainer probably believes in the 8 days between works pattern, so will use in exotics. Removes blinkers but horse has shown high front running speed in his starts, especially on grass.
5)Embellisher(3-1) Will include if race stays on grass as I expect him to sit a few lengths back as he shortens up in distance and get the best view of pace. However, if race is move to dirt, then I will opt for another.
1)High Rider(15-1). Not crazy about the rail draw on either surface, but I believe his best chance to overcome that disadvantage is on off dirt. Trainer's trainees also seems to perform much better on dirt than grass.
Bets: $5 WP 6($10), $5 Ex Box 6-7($10), $1 Tri Box 6-7-10($6), .10 Super Box(Turf Only) 5-6-7-10, .10 Super Box (Dirt Only) 1-6-7-10($2.40 either way). Total Risk: $28.40.
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4th Race: Another low level claiming level, this one N/W 3 lifetime:
5)Latin Love Bug(10-1) Edge in another wide open field. Had a 4 1/2 month freshening since last start but has a few decent works in that span, suggesting trainer was trying to get him in top condition before attempting another race. Before break, he won a N/W 2 lifetime in open company then tried an allowance race restricted to New York breds and ran credible. Probably needed freshening to let him get his legs back under him, after 7 races in 3 months.
4)Giant Boo Boo(5-2) Has made 2 starts this year after a 6 1/2 month break. He was along for second in first start back in slightly higher and then pressured the pace to the stretch before tiring in much higher class. Taking big drop, probably because traine owner wants to win a race at Saratoga and is willing to lose horse via claim. However, since he has so far not shown the ability to complete the job, I will place him second. Off track will help his cause, though.
9)Sam's Last Grasp(8-1) Ran 3rd in this class and conditions in last, after contesting the early pace and open a clear lead into the stretch before tiring. Throw out his only off track effort as the conditions was much too tough for him, as he had already proven two starts before on a fast track. Bred to love the off going.
7)Dooley(8-1) Would normally like him higher up, but his running style does not fit what wins at Saratoga. Both wins came after he lagged early in last and came home with a big kick. Has been near the back in all of his races, but likes off going so he will have a good chance at a minor placing.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-5($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-9($6), .10 Super Box 4-5-7-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 5 with 4-7-9 with 4-7-9 with 4-7-9($6). Total Risk $24.40.
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5th Race: Another grass race, so I have two options, one for dirt and one for grass:
4)Cape Angel (7-2) Ran third in last in this condition, surface and distance in his second start of year after a 6 month break. Two works since. Has tallied 2 wins at Saratoga, both last year against slightly easier but on grass and slightly shorter distances including one on a yielding turf course, but is bred to like this distance even more, once in peak shape. However, his running style does not fit Saratoga's main dirt track and neither does his bloodlines, so will toss if race is moved to dirt.
3) Stella D'Oro(8-1) Another who is bred to improve as the distance stretches out and passed first U.S. test in last, though against easier on an off the grass race that was moved to the AWT. Has good shot to upset if race remains on grass but will look at others if race moves to dirt. His sire, Sea The Stars, is a 1/2 brother to Galileo and their 2nd dam doubles as the fourth dam in the female family of Stella D'Oro, increasing the likelihood that dirt is not his preferred choice.
1)Westerland & 1A) Krewe Chief(15-1) These are coupled and I will use one of them on each surface. Both should be near the early pace and that should give either a good chance to get a piece, at least, especially on less than fast or firm surfaces. Westerland has no speed on dirt because he does not care for the surface, but has been forwardly places in most of his U.S. grass races. Dangerous if left alone and allow to dictate his own pace on grass.
1)Bird's Eye View(4-1) Has the best recent class level race, but he will be going longer than he has ever had and he will not get away with dictating as a slow pace as he got away with in that G3 test and still got ran down. But he should hang on for a piece on a less than firm surface.
5)Local Hero(15-1) Was highly thought of earlier in his racing career as he should promise that never really materialize. But he rate close to the lead and he is returning to the level where he has been most of his career. Coming of a claim and going to a trainer that has a little success on grass, but I do not know if any of his previous claims showed marked improvement under his care. I feel he fits with these if race is moved to dirt, but am reluctant and will pass using him on grass.
Bets(Turf Only): $5 Ex Box 3-4($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-4($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-7($2.40), .50 Super Key 4 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7 with 1-3-7($3). Total Risk $21.40.
Bets(Dirt Only) $5 Ex Box 1-5($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-7($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-5-7($2.40). Total Risk $18.40.
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6th Race: Another grass race but one I believe they will not move to dirt unless necessary:
4)Alongcametheprince(50-1) Sneaky good bred horse for surface and distance. Only thing missing is a top trainer. However, at these odds, I will take a shot, as I do not get many opportunities to get monstrous odds like I used to. He has made 4 starts, all this year, but is working on third race since his only winning effort. Now switching to surface his sire and broodmare sire(both G1 winners) excelled on. Courageous Cat spent his career battling champions Gio Ponti and Goldikova and this one is a member of his third crop to race. Broodmare Sire, Sligo Bay, is yet another son of Sadler's Wells, but his dam line is responsible for Serenas Song, Saint Ballado, Saint Liam, Glorious Song, Ashado, Devil's Bag and many others.
7)Bourbon In May(6-1) Another well bred horse who fits this surface and distance very well. After breaking his maiden two back, he tried stakes horses that proved too tough this early in his career and several came out of that race to run well in graded grass races, including two eventual graded stakes winners. This spot should be much more to his liking.
2)All Systems Go(12-1) Has made two starts this year, with the first an even effort on dirt and then contesting the pace before tiring slightly. Still think he needs one more race to reach peak conditioning and for this reason I will place in third. Also don't care for the spacing of his races/workouts but his bloodlines fits with these.
6)Honey Won't(15-1) Won third start back, got a couple months break, and returned with a dull effort against a runaway winner followed by fast closing fourth which should set him up nicely for this effort. Another two month break, with the difference being he had average works that indicated he was not yet in peak form during first break, but during second break has worked like he is in top form. Honey Won't's 4th dam is also dam of Affirmed.
Bets: $20 WP 4($20), $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 4-6-7($6), .50 Tri Box 2-4-7($3), .10 Super Box 2-4-6-7($2.40), $1 Super 7 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6($6). I know, I switched up a couple runners instead of going for the home run. A double is sometimes just as important. Total Risk: $67.40
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7th Race: Now getting to a few good races:
4)Candy Typhoon(2-1) Good works for debut. Looks like front running speed with Jose Ortiz up. Pletcher trains a well bred horse. Nothing new here.
8)African Heritage(20-1) First time starter with low percentage trainer, though he has shipped into Saratoga and sprung a surprise before. Good works for debut, but even better bloodlines. Sire, Cairo Prince was speedy and a son of Pioneerof The Nile, also speedy in his own right. African Heritage's dam, Celtic Gift, is a 1/2 sister to Harlan's Holiday, but hails from another Storm Cat sire line other than her 1/2 brother.
7)Excession(15-1) Made one start and broke poorly after preparing for first effort at CD and then shipping to Saratoga to run, a low percentage angle. However, he has prepared for 2nd effort at Saratoga, so I expect a better break and overall performance this go around. A good work followed by a maintenance type work since. His sire is Union Rags, a G1 winner and Champion 2 YO in U.S and dam, Draw It, a daughter of Tapit, ran 2nd in four straight stakes races, including a G1.
9)Fiesty Bird(6-1) First time starter. Started preparing for his first start at CD but trainer shipped early into Saratoga to finish preparing him for first effort, where tempo of works improved. Good work pattern and looks as prepared as any trainer can get one. Sire is Curlin but dam line has made an important contribution to racing. Family of Birdstone, winner of G1s Champagne S, Belmont S & Travers S, and Bird Town, G1 winner of Ky Oaks, Acorn S and 2nd in Test S.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-8($10), $1 Tri Box 4-7-8($6), .10 Super Box 4-7-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 4 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9 with 7-8-9($6). Total Risk: $24.40.
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8th Race:
9)Ruby Notion(12-1) Since she is the only one in here that has ran in a G1, that being the BC Turf Sprint against colts, I will choose her and make the other ones beat her. She is also making her fourth start of the year after a six month break, my favorite angle to use.
2)Too Much Tip(20-1) In with a real chance of pulling a shocker. Filly that beat her two start back, Minit To Stardom, returned in next and wired the G2 Honorable Miss H at Saratoga at 20-1. She shocked mostly because she was given a low Beyer speed rating, even though she ran 1/5 off the track record for 5 1/2 furlongs, just like this one received for same race.
8)Broadway Run(9-2) Dead heated in her last with the heavy favorite, though it was her third effort since a 4 month freshening. More important, to me at least, she is working on her third start since just missing in her first start back this year. A powerful angle that has paid off many times because I look for them. Will this one? Will not know until tomorrow.
5)Morticia(1-1) Could have put either of two favorites here as both looks like they have peaked. She has followed the same path exactly as last year and both years the Caress S was her worst race of the five. While she ran third in two of her next three last year, they were not her best efforts. Deja Vu, anyone? Winner of the Caress S last year? Look at the bottom race of my top choice and you will see(Morticia, 4th in that race).
Bets: $5 Ex Box 2-9($10), $1 Tri Box 2-8-9($6), $3 Tri Key 2 with 8-9 with 8-9($6), $4 Tri Key 2-9 with 2-9 with 8($8), .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 9 with 2-5-8 with 2-5-8 with 2-5-8($6). Total Risk: $38.40.
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9th Race: After a lot of consideration, I will opt to pass this race and look for something more lucrative. Not really sold on the favorite, but not willing to try to beat Brown on grass either.
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10th Race:
6)Ulele(8-1) set the pace in Iowa Oaks in last and got ran down by another in here. 3 more good works and a switch to a track that helps her running style more than last track is known for could be all she needs to get on top.
4)Champagne Anyone(10-1) Is working on third start since last winning effort. However, looks like trainer can not decide whether to send her out to contest the pace and lay back and make one run late. She looks like she has talent, just needs to put in all together and then she will be one to reckon with. Laying slightly off the pace and getting the jump on others should make her tough to beat.
5)Street Band(10-1) Won Indiana Oaks in last. 2 good works since that effort at CD. Takes another shot at earning G1 winner status after less than ideal trip in Ky Oaks.
1)Dunbar Road(8-5) Another one with a good shot of attaining G1 status. Race will come down to who has the best strategy that works or best trip. Rail draw is always a concern at Saratoga.
Bets $5 Ex Box 4-6,($10), $1 Tri Box 4-5-6($6), .10 Super Box 1-4-5-6($2.40), $1 Super Key 6 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5 with 1-4-5($6). Total Risk $24.40.
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11th Race:
10)Mary's Girl(15-1) ran solidly third start back against lesser, then tried to beat a speedy runner twice in next two, but was no match. However, in last, she drew the two post and inside has been less than ideal at Saratoga on a fast track. The favorite in this race who beat her in last was outside and had room to maneuver. She will also this time. Irad Ortiz takes back jockey duties, another positive.
3)Not About The Nail(8-1) Veteran of this field that likes to win and could be sitting on best race. She has won a starter stakes but not a state bred allowance that she earned more than $13k purse in her career, which makes her eligible to race in this.
6)Take Me To Hardoon(5-1) Looked ready to return to best form when given a six month break. Plenty of works for her return and she has faced the toughest company in her short career. Not out of this.
5)More Mischief(5-2) Returns against same class as last where she was in contention into the stretch, but could not finish the job as she flatten out.
Bets: $10 WP 10($20), $5 Exacta Box 3-10($10), $1 Tri Box 3-6-10($6), .10 Super Box 3-5-6-10($2.40), .50 Super Key 10 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6 with 3-5-6($3). Total Risk: $41.40.
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I believe I have listed around $323 worth of bets I am planning on making at Saratoga Saturday. Still looking for that breakout payoff for this meet. Two more Saturday opportunities after this one is left in this year's meet.

Preview of the Rebel Stakes and more

The big weekends of racing roll on as we draw closer and closer to the Kentucky Derby. This weekend will be looking at five more races highlighted by a split division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
Oaklawn Park is running a tremendous card on Saturday including Maiden Special Weight races being run for astronomical $100,000 purses, a $50,000 claiming race that carries a $97,000 purse and will feature the strapping, super talented Dessman in the fourth race.
On top of all that, we will also be taking a look at far and away the most competitive race of the weekend in the Azeri Stakes for four year olds and up fillies a mares, which drew two of best females in the country in Elate and Midnight Bisou.
As strongly as the Azeri drew, the Essex Handicap drew equally as weak. Regardless, we will be breaking down the $350,000, mile and sixteenth contest for four year olds and up.
Elsewhere, we will be look at the Inside Information at Gulfstream Park, a seven furlong dash for four year olds and up fillies and mares.
Oaklawn Park
Race: 7 (4:21 PM EST Post)
Azeri Stakes
Elate is a two time Grade: 1 winner and is a neck and a head away (behind Champion Abel Tasman) from being a four time Grade:1 winner. Needless to say, she was clearly the second best older female in the country last year. Although she will be making her first start in over six months, she seems to run well fresh and she has been working steadily at Payson Park for the last several months……………………Although beaten fair and square by Monomoy Girl several times last year, I’m sticking to my guns that Midnight Bisou still has a world of talent and should continue to get better and better as she gets older. She was clearly the second best three year old filly last year. Filly by the gargantuan Midnight Lute sports an impressive 12-6-3-3 career record and is an eye popping 5 for 5 at this distance. I’m not worried that this will be her first start in 48 days as she has run HUGE off of three prior layoffs in her career and that 5 furlong drill (1:00 flat) two weeks ago at the Fair Grounds signals readiness…..figures bang up in this spot…………………….I’m not quite sure what to make of 2018 Female Sprint Champion Shamrock Rose in this spot after finishing a disappointing fourth in her 2019 debut. I mean, did she need the race? Did she not like the sloppy track? Or, after rattling off four straight wins, including the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, to end the year last year is she now “over the top”? That said, I’m inclined to give this stretch running filly by the hulking First Dude one more shot and put her on a few tickets…………………..Honorable Mentions: Eskimo Kisses probably “bounced over the moon” while showing very little in her last race (Spinster) last year after an enormous effort in winning the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in her previous race. Filly by To Honor and Serve was put away for the year after that race. She shows up her with so-so works but she does have an affinity for this track as her 3-2-1-0 record over it would indicate………………………..Tapa Tapa Tapa has speed and the rail and comes off a big win at Tampa Bay Downs last time out. Gray mare by Tapit looks overmatched in this spot but that monster five furlong work last week (:59 flat) is a attention getter. Any horse that works that fast on a notoriously deep surfaced racetrack like TBD merits a look. (My Play: .50 Trifecta box using all 5. Cost $30.00)

Race: 8 (4:57 PM EST Post)
Rebel Stakes (Division: 1)
If you don’t like Improbable, stop reading now because I love him. He’s big, fast and has an amazingly long, beautiful and very efficient stride. Only Instagrand comes close to matching him in that area. This chestnut is 3 for 3 in his career and has won at six furlongs, a mile and a mile and a sixteenth over three different surfaces. He has excellent tactical speed and already is an easy Grade: 1 winner. He’s been running a hole in the wind in the mornings, (so much so I found myself riveted to the computer screen while watching them) so throw out the fact that this will be his first race in over three month as he certainly looks ready. You can also throw out the fact that he is by City Zip, who throws mostly grass horses and sprinters, because this guy is giving me every indication that he is special….down the road here…………………I also like Galilean quite a bit too. This drop dead gorgeous, $600,000 son of Uncle Mo has decimated Cal breds in his last two races and I especially liked his last race. Note how he won by 4 ½ while on “cruise control” but also note it was another 10 lengths back to the third place finisher. Like Improbable, he’s won at six furlongs, seven furlongs, a mile and a mile and a sixteenth and seems to be getting better as the distances get longer. As he swims out into deep waters in this spot, I don’t know he can handle a monster like Improbable but this is a quality horse with a big, big future ahead of him……………………….Although Long Range Toddy is giving me little hints that he is beginning to cycle out of form, I’m not buying that fact yet. This stretch running colt sports a 6-3-1-1 career record and, on back class alone, he looks the best of the rest……………….Honorable Mentions: Easy Shot chased Gunmetal Gray and Mucho Gusto in his last two and wasn’t completely embarrassed by either one of them…………………....Classy John looks overmatched here but, although he’s been facing MUCH softer competition, he is 5-3-2-0 in his career including a couple of Restricted Stakes wins at the Fair Grounds…… One last note about this race, can someone please tell me what a horse (Proud Nation), who was beaten by 40 lengths in a Maiden Special Weight race last time out, is doing in this race???? (My play: $500.00 to win on Improbable)

Race: 9 (5:29 PM EST Post)
Essex Handicap
Giant Expectations led and yielded late against the recently deceased Battle of Midway and McKinzie in his last at Santa Anita. He clearly will meet noooooo such rivals in this spot. Although he hasn’t won a horse race of any kind in 15 months, he just needs to run close to what he did last time and he’ll cruise in this race……………..After seven consecutive dull efforts, Rated R Superstar turned on the afterburners down the stretch of the Razorback Handicap in his last and finished a close up third at 80-1. He is another who likes this track and you get the third start off the layoff angle as well…………………….Heavy Roller is peaking out in form right now after blowing out Allowance foes in his last. Looks best of a very weak rest…. for a $350,000 Stakes race. (My Play: $5.00 exacta box. Cost $30.00)

Race: 10 (6:06 PM EST Post)
Rebel Stakes (Division: 2)
Unbeaten three time Grade: 1 winner and 2018 Two Year Old Colt Champion Game Winner really needs no introduction here. He looks to have filled out and put on muscle from the last time we saw him while winning the Breeders’ Cup Male Juvenile in November. He’s been out working his (older) work mate (Stakes runner Dr. Dorr) consistently in the mornings but let’s put all those facts aside for a minute. Over the years I’ve learned that when certain horse people talk…..I listen. Trainer Bob Baffert is one of those people. When he said that this colt was the “Michael Jordan” of his barn a few weeks ago, you know he caught my attention. For a trainer, who has trained not one but two Triple Crown winners, to call a horse Michael Jordan, what can I possibly say to trump that?...............................I know this might sound a bit odd, but I thought Gunmetal Gray ran a better race in finishing second to Mucho Gusto in the Robert B. Lewis last time out than he did in coming from way back to win the Sham Stakes while beating Much Better, the highly touted Coliseum and Sueno his previous time out. How you may ask? Simple….he had a super hot pace (first half mile in :46.4) in front of him in the Sham and as expected, there was a nuclear pace meltdown. This guy came along and blew by everyone down the lane albeit in a very pedestrian :27.1 final quarter mile.….That race setup perfectly for him. It was quite the contrary in the RB Lewis where the track was sloppy and clearly playing towards early speed. There, he was some 11 lengths behind early with virtually no chance of making up that kind of ground on such a speed biased surface. Yet when Mike Smith set him down for the drive, he passed everyone on the far outside but the winner. With no rain in the forecast and a couple of early burners in this race, it could set up well for him once again………………….Omaha Beach is very intriguing to me too. Another gorgeous horse with a beautiful stride, he could not have looked any better while breaking his maiden at Santa Anita in his last. This son of War Front ripped off mind boggling fast fractions in the slop (:21.3, :43.3 and 1:08.1) on his way to annihilating his foes by nine lengths and stopping the clock in 1:21 flat for seven furlongs. He is all of about three lengths away from being unbeaten in five career starts and has methodically improved through all five of those races as well. Moreover, his last six furlong work (1:10.3) was one of the best works I’ve seen in quite some time….no way I leave him off my tickets…………………………Honorable Mentions: After Our Braintrust was purchased privately (for a sum that I’m sure dwarfs the $25,000 originally paid for him) after the Jerome Stakes, this son of Freud just missed winning the Withers Stakes in NY his last time out. He is still another who has improved through each of his first five races and has yet to be off the board….could be a menace again in this spot…………………….If you are hunting long shot, take a look at Laughing Fox. This $375,000 son of Union Rags is yet another who has improved dramatically through his first four career races topped off by beating first level optionals his last time out. Of course, being 2 for 2 on this oval won’t hurt his chances either, nor will the fact that Ricardo Santana gets the leg up. (My Play: $1 triple box using all 5. Cost $60.00)

Gulfstream Park
Race: 11 (5:37 PM EST Post)
Inside Information Stakes
Jala Jala was an absolute win machine in her native country of Mexico but proved she can handle American racing as well while winning two of three starts in the U.S. on this oval. Although she finished second last time out, this chestnut five year old mare might have run her best race ever while chasing the talented Blamed and only being beaten by 1 ½ lengths. Bullet work at Palm Meadows last week signals to me she is holding form…….looks best……………..Tequilita finished just a neck behind Jala Jala last time out and this mare by Union Rags loves this track as her 4-2-1-1 record over it would indicate…………..America’s Tale has good speed and draws towards this inside. Good looking filly by Gio Ponti won three straight, on the engine, to end last year. Go ahead and throw out her last race (on the turf) as she is 5 for 11 on the dirt and 0 for 5 on the turf. Figures prominent throughout here…………..Honorable Mentions: Pink Sands is a $625,000 filly by Tapit who might be starting to get her act together. This Shug McGaughey trainee has hit the board in eight of 10 career starts and, more importantly, is 2 for 2 over this surface. In fact, in both of those wins her final times and closing quarter miles were very good. Bottom line here is I won’t be at all that shocked if she outruns this rating………………………Although Teresa Z will be making her first start in over four months, and she has a habit of needing a race or two off a layoff, it must be noted this $635,000 mare by Smart Strike quietly had a big year last year. She won a pair of Stakes races, including a Grade: 3 by six lengths in NY, and sandwiching those races by chasing the mega talented Elate and a very good Wow Cat. She will meet no such rivals in this spot. (My Play: .50 Triple box, using all 5. Cost: $30.00)

By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 16-47 = 34% (My Plays: -$1,007.76)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Santa Anita Park's main track opened March 11 for jogging and galloping, the first time horses were allowed onto it in nearly a week. Timed workouts also resumed on the training track the same day.
Monday was also the first day that Santa Anita's new safety protocols were implemented. Horsemen had to submit forms the previous day if they wanted to work horses on the training track. Tim Ritvo, chief operating officer of The Stronach Group, said that trainers had applied for 150 horses to work on the training track.
"We flagged about 12 of those horses and asked the trainers not to work those horses this morning," Ritvo said. Criteria used to flag horses included ones that have been away from the races for an extended period of time and hadn't worked in the past 120 days, said Ritvo.
"We got full cooperation with that," he said. "Everybody said they completely understood. I think it's the beginning of hopefully all working together. It just felt good."
Ritvo met with track consultant Dennis Moore the morning of March 11 to see how the analysis of the track was proceeding. "Step one was to look at the base, to make sure there's no erosion," Ritvo said. "The second thing is the soil analysis. The last thing is, 'is it even everywhere?'" Ritvo said Moore was pleased with how the track was progressing and that racing has been “tentatively set to resume March 22”.
Update: a 22nd horse broke down at Santa Anita during Thursday morning workouts. The Santa Anita brass is holding steadfast that the track will remian open. More this as the story unfolds

**** A couple of attention getters from Ocala Breeders Sales this past week:
Topping the session was a New York-bred colt by Tapit out of Grade: 1 winner Artemis Agrotera, who breezed one furlong in a strong :10 1/5, was purchased by West Point Thoroughbreds, Rob Masiello and Siena Farm, for $2 million.
* Off an impressive :21 1/5 quarter mile breeze, Larry Best of OXO Equine, landed a Pioneerof the Nile colt for $1.2 million.
The colt is out of the Multiple Stakes placed Golden Artemis and who is the dam of Grade: 1 winner My Conquestadory and promising 3 year old colt Bourbon War, who came flying home to get second Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park three weeks ago. Golden Artemis herself brought $1 million at the Fasig-Tipton November Sales in 2013.

* Phoenix Thoroughbreds bought three horses, topped off by a Bernardini colt out of Canadian champion grass mare Inish Glora for $825,000. The colt ripped one furlong in :09 4/5.
“Obviously, he’s fast–fast and beautiful,” said Tom Ludt, Phoenix’s head of operations. “It’s expensive right now, but he’s a really good colt. He galloped out great. That’s what we’re looking for. Now we just need to get him to do it over a little bit longer distance.”
The colt will be heading to Steve Asmussen’s barn.

* Katsumi Yoshida’s Northern Farm paid $675,000 to land a Candy Ride half sister to U.S. champion sprinter Drefong.
Drefong, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner was retired to stud for the 2018 season to stand at Teruya Yoshida’s Shadai Stallion Station in Hokkaido, Japan.
“She was really good, and when we looked at her black-type page, Drefong’s name was on it. We are very excited to buy her,” Northern Farm Shigaraki Manager Yasuhiro Matsumoto said. “She was really good looking and her walk was very nice. We were here for her work out and her form was very good. We’re going to bring her back to Japan and hope that she will have a good racing career.”

My Choices For Belmont Park, Saturday July 6(Belmont Oaks & Derby Day)

These are my choices at the moment for races this weekend. However, I plan to start watching the tote board again, a tactic I had a lot of success with years ago, before I installed my current plan of betting the horses. While tote board watching often gives you clues in which horse is most likely to win if you learn which one is receiving bets from "smart money" bettors, who usually are betting with some inside information that most of the public knows nothing and/or heard about. While most of my bets will stay the same, there will be a few occasions I decide to switch onto a more well regarded horse to try to hit exactas and trifectas more often. However, since this is usually just before post on most occasions, I will not be able to change my thoughts on any post in time, so I would encourage others to learn more about the real serious bettors. The only reason I do not like using this system is it tends to overlook horses that I think has a real shot at pulling an upset but that is mostly because they did not receive any inside information on these types.
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I will take a pass on races 1 and 3. There does not seem to be enough value in these races to take a risk on.
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Race 2 Maiden Claiming $40,000--- 3 YO & Up Restricted To NY Breds---Purse $41,000--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:
Another fairly weak field, it offers value that will pay decently if you can beat the morning line favorite, who is not a lock against anyone, and a sucker type horse, who has gotten close several times, but has yet to complete the job. So my choices will be:
1)Keep The Light On(20-1)--- He has made one start in his career on a good turf course at 6 furlongs and was last for most of the way before picking up a few tired and inexperienced horses in the stretch. But his bloodlines suggest he will be better at middle distances on grass and he gets that opportunity in here. His sire, Willcox Inn, was a multiple G1 Stakes placed runner who finished just behind Wise Dan twice in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile while 2nd one year and third the next year. This will be his only crop to race as he was fatally injured in a paddock injury while wrapping up his only season at stud.
11) Millies Party Boy(6-1) is my choice for second. He finished third in his first career start and then tolled in maiden special races for seven more starts, always offering a late run but left with too much to do. Then dropped into maiden claiming and after a couple of decent runs in this class, he looked ready to graduate late last year, finishing second by a neck and then third, beaten two lengths. Then he was entered in two dirt races to finish up the year and he responded with two of the worst races of his career. With one start this year in an open bred maiden special weight where he returned to his old style and made a solid run to get into contention before flattening out in the stretch in his first start in seven months. Again he signaled he is ready to graduate. But this time he is entered in the right class, restricted to state breds, and on the right surface.
10)Golconda(8-1) is my choice for third. He has made 11 starts with 2 seconds and a third as his best efforts. He beat my second choice in his only on the board finish on grass in five starts on a yielding turf but was beaten by that foe in their next start on a good turf when my second choice just missed graduating. Since those races, they look like they have gone in opposite directions. However, since he is dropping back down into the class he seems to fit best in and his last two works since his last start was his best in his recent past, he could be signaling he is ready to wake up and produce his best run.
5)No More Miracles(6-1) is my choice for fourth. After 5 starts on dirt and performing poorly in each, he was switched to grass sprints and came alive in his last two. But 1 1/16 miles is probably a little farther than what should be his best distance and therefore I will place him here. However, I think he will be closer if the race remains on grass but is less than firm, as I expect him to be near the lead throughout.
Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-11, Tri Box 1-10-11, .10 Super Box 1-5-10-11, Super Key 1 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11 with 5-10-11.
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Race 4: Allowance ---- 3 YO & Up Fillies And Mares---- Purse $66,000 ---- 6 1/2 Furlongs:
8)Bangle Girl(4-1) is my choice to win. She is exiting her maiden win but has faced several highly regarded NY breds in her two worst races, including the one(Newly Minted) who ran by the heavy favorite in here with ease. Her sire, Emcee, is a G1 winning sprinter and her broodmare sire, Hold That Tiger, is a G1 winning middle distance runner but his best known son is Smiling Tiger, a multiple G1 winning sprinter in his own right.
4)Cathy Naz(8-1) is my choice for second. While she should get a pretty good trip behind two dueling front runners, my top choice will probably get to sit the better trip and be gone before she can catch up to that one. While it looks like this is a step up for her, she actually is the only horse in the race to finish in front of open bred multiple winners and older fillies. Actually, the filly that beat her in her last two ran 2nd to Highway Star( at 2-5) late last year in a big state bred stakes. She also looks like she is cycling back into her best form, judging by 4 good works since her last.
6)Mary's Girl(12-1) is my choice for third. She has been racing in multiple winners races, but they have been restricted to 3 YOs and NY breds and this is a step up in class for her. However, she, too, looks like she is peaking into her best form and she has not only the bloodlines but also has developed a late run that should help her. The main question with her is can she handled the rise in class?
1)OK Honey(20-1) is my choice for fourth. At first glance, it looks like she does not have much of a chance to make an impact. While both her sire, Haynesfield, and broodmare sire, Not For Love, both won distance races in their racing careers, both have more foals that are better at sprinting compared to distance racing. And she seems to be following that same route. Her five placing in twelve starts suggests 6 furlongs is a little short for her but a mile is a tad further that she wants, as she has made several moves to get the lead, only to get ran down near the finish. And like several other, she appears to be regaining her best form after four uninspiring tries after winning before an improved race in her last start after stepping into an open bred race. Now she returns to NY bred and gets a distance that should be more to her liking.
Bets: WP 8, Ex Box 4-8, Tri Box 4-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-4-6-8, Super Key 8 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6 with 1-4-6.
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Race 5: Maiden Special Weight --- 2 Yos --- Purse $80,000 --- 6 Furlongs Turf:
1)Hard Sting(12-1) is my choice to win. He is making his first career start off a series of good works. His sire, Hard Spun, won 7 of 13 lifetime starts but also finished second in the Ky Derby and BC Classic, third in the Preakness and fourth in the Belmont S while banking over $2.6M. Hard Sting's dam, Smart Sting, won 4 of 13 lifetime starts including a couple of Canadian stakes races and banked over $400K while spending her career on the AWT and/or grass. Second dam, Perfect Sting, won 14 of 21 lifetime starts while banking $2.2M, almost all on grass. Another Stonach bred and a horse he kept to run.
6)Montauk Daddy(3-1) is my choice for second. He has made one start, an off the grass race ran on an sloppy track and he closed well to finish second in a good time. While his sire, Daddy Long Legs, is not one of the best foals of turf specialist Scat Daddy, he did win the UAE Derby. He did not hit the board in any of his last 11 starts, including a did not finish in the Ky Derby. Montauk Daddy's broodmare sire, Old Fashioned, won his first four starts before finishing second in both the G2 Rebel S And G2 Arkansas Derby before an injury forced his retirement. However, Montauk Daddy's dam line is stocked full of serious grass runners.
8)Now Is(20-1) is my choice for third, though I believe he has a good to solid shot at an upset. He has made two lifetime starts, the first on grass where he broke a little slow, then tracked the pace but was no match for the top two. Then he was tried in a stakes race on dirt and was simply overmatched at this point in his career. Now entered back on the surface he will eventually prefer most and another furlong to work with, I expect him to get out front and wing it. While there is other speed signed up, they better have their running shoes on from the get go, because a minor hesitation is all this one will need to wire this field. His sire, Sidney's Candy, was fast from the gate on dirt but appeared even faster on grass.
3)Silver Promise(6-1) is my choice for fourth. He is another well bred sort that is working good for his debut. He looks like the only one fast enough to go with my third and my top choice early and if he breaks a little slow, which is always possible with first time starters, the outcome may be a foregone conclusion. His sire Declaration Of War and his broodmare sire, Tapit, both had some speed but neither was lightning fast from the gate.
Bets: WP 1, Ex Box 1-6, Ex Key 8 with 1-6, Ex Key 1-6 with 8, Tri Box 1-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-8, Super Key 1 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8 with 3-6-8.
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Race 6: Dwyer S(G3) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $250,000 --- 1 Mile:
4)Whiskey Echo(20-1) is my choice to win. He has made one start this year and won in a good time. He has since worked out four times, with three bullets followed by an maintenance breeze. His sire, Tiznow, is one everyone should know about but the dam line is probably a mystery to most. While Whiskey Echo's dam was unraced, his 2nd dam, Aishah, is a G2 winning full sister to Althea, Champion 2 YO Filly Of 1983 who shattered the Arkansas Derby stakes record in 1984 while equaling Oaklawn Park's track record for 1 1/8 mile. This horse was born to run and so far he has!
3)Code Of Honor(4-5) is my choice to finish second and will be heavily bet. While he has raced against the best competition thus far, he has beaten very little in both his wins and that makes him vulnerable in this spot.
6)Majid(6-1) is my choice for third. He will try to take this field from gate to wire as he has done in each of his last three starts, but better horses are signed up for this test that any of those races. While I believe he will crumble due to the early pressure, he should hang around for a piece in such a short field.
2)Rowayton(3-1) is my choice for fourth. He is one who will apply early pressure on my third choice but he has yet to prove he can put away other speed and keep going up to a mile. His broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, always gives me reservations about using any of his foals in exactas and trifectas when they are going longer than 7 furlongs with other front runners present as most of them are prong to stopping badly when faced with heavy pressure.
Bets: WP 4, Ex Box 3-4, Tri Box 3-4-6, .10 Super Box 2-3-4-6, Super Key 4 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6.
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7th Race: Belmont Oaks(G1) --- 3 YO Fillies --- Purse $750,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
6)Just Wonderful(6-1) is my choice to win. She has made three starts this year, all at 1 mile and she showed little in each. However, the filly who won the first 2 and finished second in the last one(Hermosa) is Europe's leading 3 YO filly miler at this point and she also beat Just Wonderful in her only G1 test in Europe last year. But Just Wonderful will do better as the distances gets longer. Her dam, Wading's 3/4 sister, Athena, shipped over here last year to win this race for her only G1 score to date. Just Wonderful's third dam, Urban Sea, is dam of Galileo and Sea The Stars, both champions and top sires in Europe.
1)Olendon(9-2) is my choice for second. She has made three starts this year and has improved in each, including her first G1 placing in her last. While that race is an important European test, it pales in comparison to the three my top choice competed in this year. She has a good blend of speed and distance in both the sire and dam lines and should make her presence known late.
9)Cambier Parc(4-1) is my choice for third. She has won three of her four starts this year but now gets the acid test. Her sire, Medaglia D'Oro and her broodmare sire, Point Given, are both multiple G1 winners on dirt but her dam,Sealy Hill, is multiple G1 placed on grass and won the Woodbine Oaks on the AWT.
3)Coral Beach(15-1) is my choice for fourth. She, too, has made three starts this year, the first two in the French and Ireland 1,000 Guineas, a race for top European 3 YO fillies milers and then the Sandringham S where she produce her best run this year against easier. But she probably still needed that start to reach her best shape and now should be ready to get it her best effort. While her sire, Zoffany, was a top sprintemiler during his racing career, her broodmare sire, Tiger Hill, completed against the best distance horses in Europe. She also has some more distance help in her dam line as third dam is a daughter of Surumu, a product of Germany's best distance sire line for more than 150 years.
Bets: WP 6, Ex Box 1-6, Tri Box 1-6-9, .10 Super Box 1-3-6-9, Super Key 6 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-9.
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8th Race: John A Nerud S(G2) --- 3 YO & Up --- Purse $300,000 --- 7 Furlongs:
9) Promises Fulfilled(2-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with one third his best effort. But in his last, chart says he stumbled at the start, but all I saw was he was a little sluggish to get in gear. However, the jockey tried to get him to rate after he saw he could not get the lead as the horse prefers and he flatten out in the stretch. But it was the type of race he needed to get him to his peak form. His 2-1 M/L odds is very generous, so I would not expect him to get off at those odds.
4)Nicodemus(6-1) is my choice for second. He has made 5 starts this year, missing the board in every other start while winning twice. It is only a matter of time before he starts putting back to back races together. While his sire, Candy Ride is known for foals with high speed, he probably gets his closing ability from his dam, Leah's Secret, who won several G2 stakes during her racing career, all from off the pace. However, her sire, Tiger Ridge is the only horse you will ever see that has both Secretariat's top two producing daughters as dam and grand dam. His sire is Storm Cat, a son of Terlingua, while his dam is Weekend Surprise.
2)New York Central(8-1) is my choice to finish third. Early in his career, he was a need the lead type that threw clunkers when someone outbroke him. But since he has been shorten back up to sprints, he has shown a willingness to rate, something he will need to hit the board in this spot.
1)Majestic Dunhill(15-1) is my choice for fourth. he has four starts this year and appears to be regaining his best form. While he normally comes for way back with a late rush in the stretch, you can expect him to be picking off horses late and could possibly get involved in the exacta, though I think winning is unlikely, mostly due to my top choice.
Bets: No WP, Ex Box 4-9, Tri Box 2-4-9, Tri Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4, Super Key 9 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4 with 1-2-4.
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Race 9: Belmont Derby(G1) --- 3 YOs --- Purse $1,000,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
9)Cape Of Good Hope(10-1) is my choice to win. He has made 3 starts this year with 1 win in a non graded stakes, but it was a prep for the Epsom Derby. However, O'Brien is usually loaded with three years old colts and he decided to send this one to contest the G1 Prix Du Jockey Club and he just missed becoming a G1 placed in that effort. I'm throwing his last out as maybe he did not like the give in the turf course that day. He has two graded stakes winning full brothers, Highland Reel, who most probably heard of as he made three trips to the U.S, winning the G1 Secretariat, then returning the next year to win the G1 BC Turf and then the nest year to finish third in the BC Turf and Idaho, third in the Epsom Derby and 2nd in the Irish Derby, among several other top races.
5)Plus Que Parfait(20-1) is my choice for second. He has one win in four starts this year but now is switching to the surface he was originally bred for. While he made his first lifetime start on grass at a mile and finished third, he was then switched to dirt where he was inconsistent. Now a return to his best surface and a little more distance, he should be around at the end.
4)English Bee(30-1) is my choice for third. He won his last start which was his first stakes win and now gets the acid test to prove he belongs with the top grass runners. He has the perfect pattern for young horses who are poised to run their career best race. And while this race is stocked with horses who may like the 1 1/4 mile distance, none is even close to the bloodlines and proven distance loving abilities of both his sire, English Channel and his broodmare sire, Kitten's Joy. Both English Channel and Kitten's Joy was beaten by Better Talk Now in separate BC Turfs but English Channel returned in 2007 and turned the BC Turf in a laughter, beating Better Talk Now and Europe's best by 7 lengths.
3)Seismic Wave(5-1) is my choice for fourth. He has hit the board in 5 of 6 lifetime starts and he just missed hitting the board in his only non placing as he was forced to go wide and circled the field to miss winning by 1 1/2 lengths. Now the added distance will only help him. While the talk has always been about Northern Dancer as a sire, it is his dam line that made him the sire he turned out to be and she, Natalma, appears as the sixth dam of Seismic Wave, meaning he traces tail female back into Almahmoud and later into Fair Play's grandson and Mother Goose, a filly who has a race named in her honor.
Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 5-9, Tri Box 4-5-9, .10 Super Box 3-4-5-9, Super Key 9 With 3-4-5 with 3-4-5 With 3-4-5.
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Race 10: Suburban S(G2) --- 3 Yo & Up--- Purse $700,000 --- 1 1/4 Mile:
3) Rocketry(8-1) is my choice to win. He tried in vain to catch the only speed who set a snail pace in their last and just manage to hold off his late run. With more speed signed on, I look for him to blow by the front runners in here.
11) Pavel(8-1) is my choice for 2nd. He is following basically the same pattern as he followed last year. Last year, he started with a fourth in the San Pasqual, followed by a fourth in the Dubai World Cup and a fourth in the Gold Cup at SA before winning the G1 Stephen Foster H. This year, after a fourth in both the San Pasqual & Dubai World Cup, he finished sixth in the Metropolitan Mile. Now he enters the G2 Suburban S off two decent works and his fourth start this year. He also adds blinkers and that signals to me that his trainer wants to keep him just behind the early pace setters.
5) Lone Sailor(8-1) is my choice for third. He cycled back into his best form two starts back, then was sent to California to contest a G1 on a track that works against his style of running but he managed to finished a distant third. Now with two decent works since returning from that effort, I feel he is ready to fire again over several of these he is entered against. Now he adds blinkers which should help him stay a little closer to the pace.
10)Cordmaker(12-1)is my choice for fourth. It looks like his trainer has been taking his time with this one to let him mature and he has slowly improved step by step. Now it is time to see what they have developed. While he is taking a big step up in class, his bloodlines suggests he should handle it and if this was not his first attempt at this class, he would be in my top two picks.
Bets: WP 3, Ex Box 3-11, Tri Box 3-5-11, .10 Super Box 3-5-10-11, Super Key 3 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11 With 5-10-11.
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Race 11: Maiden Special Weight --- 3 YO & Up ---Purse $80,000 ---- 1 Mile Turf:
9) Windward Sands(3-1) is my choice to win. A member of the last crop of Scat Daddy, she is working like she will win early in her career. Trainer Brown is sneaky good at having his horses ready at first asking, especially on grass.
1)Downstream(12-1) is my choice for second. She has made one start and after setting the pace for six furlongs on a yielding grass course, she did a steady retreat. But the horse pressing her throughout was Newspaperofrecord who drew away at ease and made her race look worse than it actually was.
2) Ledecka(7-2) is my choice for third. She has finished second in both of her starts, so that is the biggest reason to place her here. Also, experience counts in my book and she has ran credible both times while getting a little education in each. But this will be by far her biggest challenge as there looks like several newcomers with real ability to challenge her.
11)Foolish Living(6-1) is my choice for fourth. Another Brown trainee, she, too, is making her first start and has some sneaky good works, much like my top choice. While I think she has some good bloodlines, I prefer the other Brown's trainee bloodlines more.
Bets: WP 9, Ex Box 1-9, Tri Box 1-2-9, .10 Super Box 1-2-9-11, Super Key 9 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11 With 1-2-11.
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A Couple Of Picks For Today

I looked at several Indiana Downs races for today and see a couple which has the potential to pay decent. I will probably take a small exotic shot at both of these races but since I like a race more tomorrow at Evangeline Downs, I eill wait until then to bet my usual amount on that race.

Ind. Race 2: Maiden Special Weight ---$31,000-- 2 YO-- Five Furlongs:

5) His Glory(8-1) is well bred and makes the first start of his career. However, he has worked in company with the favorite in this race twice and the favorite beat him once for sure and they finished side by side in the latter work. Trainer Amoss is a top trainer and knows how to get them prepared. If the first work his stablemate already had a couple of works under his belt, si he had the advantage in that work, which was my choice his published work. He has 2 more works in 2 weeks since then, while the favorite has only the one they worked in company.

8) Hopes And Prayers(9-2) has 2 lifetime starts, finishing 3rd in both, the first at 2 furlongs and the latter at 5 furlongs that was taken off the grass. However, he is among the best bred in here and holds an experience edge over the other two I like. He also returns in 11 days since his last, so trainer thinks he is fit.

11)Magine(3-1) is the stablemate of my top choice but I like my pick better for one simple reason. His works since he started training has been consistent but this one's works has been spread out a little more than I preferred, indicating he either needs time between works or he may have some sort of a minor physical problem. The better jockey chose this one, though.

7)Two More Times(15-1) is another who could jump up and run a big race. he also has one start and finished third on a muddy track. But his sire Soldat is a son of speedy sire War Front and Two More Times's broodmare sire, Pioneerof The Nile is sire of TC winner, American Pharoah. Pioneerof the Nile was also speedy and finished 2nd in the Ky Derby to Mine That Bird who ran away with that edition of the derby on a muddy track.

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7th Race: Allowance O/C $25,000--- 3 YO & Up F&M ---- Purse $32,500--- 5 Furlongs Turf:

2) Niece Jackie Davis(15-1) will be my top choice. Her trainer, Haran, is sneaky but knows how to get one ready and usually pops one when others does not believe his horse has a chance. Two starts back, this horse won an allowance N/W 3 lifetime against Ind breds, but rose in class to face open breds in her last and got crushed. Sine that effort, she has came back and worked, an indication the trainer still thinks she is fit. Rxpect big odds because you will probably get them here with this one. Her sire was a speedy sprinter on dirt but her broodmare sire was also speedy and actually won a stakes at Hollywood Park on grass in 101 1/5 for 5 1/2 furlongs and he hails from the sire line of Uncle Mo, known for their speed on grass.

8) Sugarsugarsugar(8-5) is the favorite in here and will be the one to beat. She was beaten N/W 2 lifetime at this track, surface and distance last year, but has improve since then. She has won 3 of 4 starts this year but her last at Belterra was slightly easier than this field. However, she likes to make a late run and there is enough early speed in here that she should be rolling in deep stretch and be tough to deny.

7) Southern Candy(30-1) will be my choice for third but she could upset if my top choice does not break cleanly. Her sire, Sidney's Candy was a turf and AWT specialist who took the SA Derby from gate to wire and won for fun when that track had an AWT. He also broke his maiden in 102 and change in his 2nd lifetime start on that surface. Southern Candy's 3rd dam, Pattern Step, won the G1 Hollywood Oaks on dirt in 1988 after just missing in both the Senorita S and Honeymoon H, both on grass at 1 mile & 1 1/16 mile. The only reason she is not my top choice is because I know little about the trainer, who is fairly new to the game.

I am including the race for tomorrow at Evangeline Downs. This track used to be my 2nd favorite track to bet when it was a "bull ring" and have many solid days there but they rebuilt and moved a few miles up the road so they could add a casino. They have grown in popularity since while La Downs has fallen on hard times, mainly because another casino brought them and has refused to invest in their racing side of the business.

5th Race: Evangeline Downs---- Maiden Special Weight---- La Bred 3 YO & Up Fillies and Mares---- Purse $24,000--- 7 1/2 Furlongs Turf:

5) Marywood(10-1) will be my choice to win. Her trainer also has 2 entered in this race but I feel this is a better spot for this one. She has 2 lifetime starts. After breaking poorly in her first start on dirt at 5 1/2 furlongs, she did not run much at all. She was then entered on grass and stretched out to 1 1/16 mile. Again, she broke near the back, and made a late run to just miss while finishing 3rd at 28-1. She does not have a work since then, but since I know this trainer's intentions, it does not bother me as much as it normally would. Her sire, Paddy O'Prado, ran 3rd in the 2010 Ky Derby in the mud and after a 6th in the Preakness, he was switched back to grass and won 2 G2 and the G1 Secretariat S in his first 3 starts back on that surface. His only 3 off the board races in his life was on dirt. Her broodmare sire, Kissin Kris, won the G1 Haskell Inv. for his biggest win but also won the G3 Palm Beach S on grass. His sire hails from the Roberto sire line.

8) Labruna(10-1) is my choice for 2nd but you will probably get much higher odds than her M/L suggests. After making 10 starts which included a 2nd and a 3rd, both on grass and one start this year, she was idled for 3 months where she was privately purchased and switched trainers. She returned on the grass and pressured the pace to the top of the stretch before fading badly at 1 1/16 mile. Now she is being shortening back up to a distance that should be more suitable for her. Her sire, Big Brown won the 2008 Ky Derby & Preakness but has had more success siring grass runners, as his pedigree success he should. Her broodmare sire, Bandini, was the third choice for the 2005 Ky Derby after running away with the Blue Grass S, but finished 19th of 20th. While Bandini was never tried on grass, his pedigree, too, suggests he would have probably performed better on that surface. Labruna's trainer, Walter Trahan, comes from a family known to pull shockers when least expected and this horse fits that profile.

6) Ide B A Soldier(3-1) has a 2nd and 2 thirds from 4 lifetime starts but is making his debut on grass. He should drop back early and move along with my top choice. While he has a chance to win, I believe third is the best place to put him. His trainer, Dale White Sr knows how to get a horse ready but his only work since his last start is a little slower than I would prefer, especially since he will be near, if not, the favorite at off time. However, he has grass bloodlines and his broodmare sire was a leading sire in Louisiana for several years, so I can not totally dismiss.

1) Temple Of Roses(5-1) has 5 lifetime starts, including 4 on grass including a 2nd and a 3rd. She is being stretched back out after her last start at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass was simply a tactic a lot of trainers uses to try to get their trainees to show more early speed. She also has a work since then suggesting she has some speed but I already had realize that, judging by her three previous races at 1 mile. She just hasn't been able to finish the deal. While her recent activity could be enough to get her over the top, my bet will be that it will not be quite enough. However, she has the look of one that is ready to break her maiden and the one who wins the pace battle between her and my 2nd choice, should still around for the exacta and/or tri.

My Bets: WP 5, Ex Box 5-8, Tri Box 5-6-8, .10 Super Box 1-5-6-8, Super Key 5 with 1-6-8 with 1-6-8 with 1-6-8.

One more note, there are several other trainers in this race that will take a lot of money, so if you can hit this race, you will be likely to be rewarded well. And that is what I always hope for.

Kentucky Derby 2019 Analysis

**Just a little background: I have posted my father's Derby write up the past few years and it seems to get a good response. If anyone has any questions I can see if he can answer them. Good luck!
"I have been writing this analysis of the Kentucky Derby since 1983, but as I sit down to write this year’s analysis, I am awed by the fact that this will be my 50th consecutive Derby. So, from that standpoint, this write up is very special.
First an overview of this year’s field: -The field will consist of 20 colts, 19 from America and one from Japan. -These colts will be trained by 16 different trainers, only 3 of these trainers have previously won the Derby. The other 13 will be trying to win it for the first time. -The colts entered in the race are a lightly raced group, much like last year’s entrants. However, this year’s colts are more lightly raced than last year’s – an average of 5.5 career starts (last year’s colts averaged 5.9 career starts before the Derby). -Last year I spoke about the way trainers were being very cautious in the number of races they are giving their charges. Well that trend is continuing this year. This year 10 colts have fewer than 6 career starts, half the field! -Additionally, 8 colts are going into the Derby with only 2 starts as a 3-YO. Back in the good old days (the 1980’s and 90’s), these lightly raced colts’ chances of winning the race were pretty slim, but today this is the norm among Derby entrants. -While the field is light on experience, they are long on earnings – 3 of them are already millionaires, a testament to the lofty purses colts are running for these days.
I will now begin my analysis of all 20 colts (no fillies are entered this year), listing them in the order of points they have accumulated going into the Derby. But please remember that the order I analyze them in is probably not the order that I see them finishing the race.
Tacitus: This son of Tapit is one of two colts in the race trained by Bill Mott who is seeking his first Kentucky Derby win. Tacitus has only 4 lifetime starts, including 2 this year. Many people felt that his win in the 1-1/8-mile Wood Memorial at Aqueduct was the best prep race of any of the 3-YOs this year. The winner of the Wood has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby 11 times, but the last Wood/Derby winner was in 2000. It seems like the “bloom is off the rose” as far as Wood winners repeating in Louisville. Though he has only raced 4 times in his career, his speed figures have increased as the distances have gotten longer – a good sign for a colt trying a 1-1/4 miles race in the Derby. I am a little concerned that he is untested against Grade 1 company (the Wood was a Grade 2 race), but I am sure he will take some play from the bettors come Derby day. I may have to use him in my exotic bets ( bets other than win, place & show) in the Derby.
Omaha Beach: This colt has never been out of the money in 7 career starts. However, it took him 5 tries to break his maiden – not necessarily an encouraging sign. He has been the favorite in 6 of his 7 races, so he is somewhat of a “money burner”. However, that being said, he may very well be the favorite in the Derby and he gets the services of Mike Smith who had to choose between Omaha Beach and Roadster. I believe that the betting money will follow “Big Money Mike” on Derby day. Note that Mike Smith has only won 2 Kentucky Derbies from probably 20 or more mounts – not a good record for such an established rider. A couple of things that I don’t like about Omaha Beach; he began his career with 3 races on the grass before switching to dirt, 2 of his 3 wins have come on sloppy tracks with his other win by a narrow nose on a fast dirt surface. On the other hand, he has beaten proven colts in Game Winner (last year’s 2-YO champion) and Improbable (winner of the GR 1 Los Alamitos Futurity). His trainer, Richard Mandella, will be trying to win his 1st Derby (he is 0 for 6 in the race) with this colt and I have to say that he has as good a chance as anybody to win.
Vekoma: Another lightly raced colt with only 4 career starts, including 2 this year, and, like Tacitus, he is untested against Grade 1 company. Trained by George Weaver, who is seeking his 1st Derby win, this colt won the BlueGrass Stakes beating Win Win Win and Signalman – two colts he may face in Louisville. The BlueGrass has produced 10 Derby winners, but none since 1991. He is a well-travelled colt, each of his starts has come over a different track. I have always liked this colt, he has a good late turn of foot (how fast he is) and being out of Candy Ride, the Derby distance should not be a problem. However, he has a weird way of “moving”; in the stretch he seems to “paddle” his left front leg. This may not serve him well in the long stretch at CD. Also, his trainer does not have a very good record in graded stakes competition, winning at only a 6% rate. I think he will present some good odds come Derby day and just might be a must use in the exotics.
Plus Que Parfait: This colt’s claim to fame is that he won the $2.5M UAE Derby in Dubai in March. He is trained by Brendan Walsh who is another trainer seeking his 1st Derby win. I’ve observed that horses that fly half way around the world to run in Dubai, have a pretty hard time getting back into racing shape upon their return from that trip. He got the big money in Dubai but I don’t see him getting any money in the Derby so I will pass.
Roadster: Roadster is one of Bob Baffert’s three possible Derby entrants and the colt that Mike Smith didn’t choose to ride in the Derby. This son of Quality Road (a very good sire), who will be ridden by Florent Geroux, is also lightly raced with only 4 career starts, including 2 this year. He did win the Santa Anita Derby over Game Winner and Instagrand and the Santa Anita Derby has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, including three since 2012 – Justify, California Chrome and I’ll Have Another. This colt overcame some breathing issues after surgery last year and had been ridden by Mike Smith in all his career starts, so when Mike chose Omaha Beach over Roadster it must have been a surprise to Baffert & Co. Obviously a very talented colt who might be the 2nd betting choice in the race, but I am unsure at this point how I will play him.
By My Standards: This colt has 5 career starts and took four tries to break his maiden – not very encouraging. He is trained by Bret Calhoun, who is also seeking his first Derby win. He did win the Louisiana Derby at odds of 22-1 beating Spinoff and Sueno. However, the Louisiana Derby has only produced 2 Kentucky Derby winners, the last one being Grindstone in 1996. I am a little concerned about his ability to get the 1-1/4 miles in the Derby based on his breeding. I can’t really say that I would recommend anyone bet him to win so I will pass.
Maximum Security: This undefeated colt, from 4 lifetime starts, began racing in December last year in claiming and optional claiming races (I guess his connections didn’t feel he was that good) and was not really tested until he ran, and won, the Florida Derby in a very good time. In that race he beat Code of Honor, Bodexpress and Bourbon War. All his wins have come by good margins (3-1/2 to 18 lengths. He is trained by Jason Servis who is also looking for his first Derby win. He has only gone two turns in a race once in 4 tries and has been ridden by 3 different jockeys in 4 races, again, something that is not that encouraging. I don’t think I will bet him.
Game Winner: Last year’s 2-YO champion has won three Grade 1 races in 6 lifetime starts so he is a very good colt. He has never been out of the money and his two losses were by a nose and a ½ length. He lost the Santa Anita Derby to Roadster and the Rebel Stakes to Omaha Beach, two colts who will be highly regarded come Derby day. He is the second of Bob Baffert’s three probable entries. All three have the credentials to win the Derby and he has a win over the CD track last November in the Breeders’ Cup (always a plus to have a win over the CD surface). In a race full of speed, he has a tactical advantage in that he can get good position and lay off the pace until they hit the top of the stretch. On a slightly down note, he lost his 2 starts this year, each as the favorite, after an undefeated 2-YO campaign. Though he lost to good colts (see above) I am not sure that Bob had him cranked up for either of those efforts. He will likely be a reasonable price in the Derby, and I may have to take a long hard look at him before I bet.
Code of Honor: A somewhat inconsistent colt, he has 2 wins in 5 lifetime starts, but 2 of his losses were in Grade 1 company. He has been beaten by Maximum Security and Bodexpress in the Florida Derby after he won the Fountain of Youth stakes over Bourbon War and Vekoma. He is trained by “Shug” McGaughey who won the 2013 Derby with Orb, and knows what it takes to win the Derby. His breeding is such that he could run all day so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. He will probably be a double digit price in the Derby and I am a little hesitant to do more than maybe put him in a trifecta or superfecta box.
Haikal: Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin this colt could be Kiaran’s 1St Derby winner. Yeah, read that again - Kiaran has never won the Kentucky Derby. However, I don’t think this is his year to score that elusive victory. This colt was beaten by Tacitus and Tax in the Wood, 2 colts he will face in the Derby. Haikal has always been in the money, in 5 career starts, but has not run outside Aqueduct. I am suspect of a colt who has wintered in NY – he can’t be that good if they didn’t ship to FLA for the winter. I will pass, on the win bet but maybe find a place for him in the exotics.
Improbable: Bob Baffert’s 3rd entry has finished in the money in all of his 5 career starts and has a win over the CD track. He won the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in December before going to Arkansas for his 2 starts this year. In the Rebel, at Oaklawn, he was beaten by Long Range Toddy and then he was a close 2nd in the Arkansas Derby getting beat by Omaha Beach. He will face both colts in the Derby. His running style (tracking the pace) should suit him well. However, I question whether he can get the 1-1/4 miles of the Derby as he is out of City Zip, a sprinter. Anyway, he is a good colt with a very good trainer so I will have to take a long, hard look at him before deciding whether to bet him or not.
War of Will: One of three colts in the race who have 8 lifetime starts, this Mark Casse trainee began his career with 4 starts on the turf before breaking his maiden at CD over a sloppy track. Casse has yet to win the Derby and I have doubts that this colt will give him his first Derby victory. This colt should not have any trouble with the distance, but he took a bad beating as the 4-5 favorite in the Louisiana Derby losing by 12 lengths to the likes of By My Standards, Spinoff and Suneo. His connections have always though highly of him. He was entered in three graded stakes races as a 2-YO even though he was a maiden, but I won’t be betting him in the Derby.
Long Range Toddy: Another colt with 8 lifetime starts, he will try to get Steve Asmussen his first Derby win. However, he was badly beaten in the Arkansas Derby over a sloppy track by Omaha Beach, Improbable and Country House, although he did beat Improbable in the Rebel. I believe that he is not as good as he looks on paper and I don’t think he will get the Derby distance based on his breeding. It should be noted that he has never been the favorite in any of his 8 lifetime starts. I will likely bypass him in favor of others.
Tax: A consistent colt who has finished in the money in all his 5 career starts. He began his career in claiming races, including one at CD, and was claimed for $50K in his 2nd start by his trainer Danny Gargan who is an up and coming trainer. It is rare that a former claimer runs in, let alone wins, the Derby. Tax’s last three races have been at a 1-1/8 miles all at Aqueduct so he should not have any trouble handling the Derby distance. He was beaten in the Wood by Tacitus, one of the likely Derby favorites, but was not able to get to the winner in the stretch. So, this is a colt who has plenty of potential, but I have to wonder if his trainer is ready to take on the big boys in Louisville. He will probably be double digit odds in the Derby and a 4th place finish might be as good as he can do.
Cutting Humor: One of the two Todd Pletcher colts in the race, this colt sports 2 wins in 6 lifetime starts and I have to wonder why Todd thinks he should enter this colt. He is not that consistent having been beaten nearly 9 lengths as the favorite in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, behind Sueno and Long Range Toddy, and barely hanging on to beat Anothertwistafate in the Sunland Derby. He also lost to Bourbon War in an optional claiming race in January. This colt will be a longshot in the Derby and I will take a pass.
Win Win Win: This colt has never finished out of the money in 6 lifetime starts for trainer Michael Trombetta, who is another trainer seeking his first Derby win. Trombetta has not won a graded stakes race in his career so why would he prevail in America’s greatest race? Also, I doubt that this colt can handle the distance of the race based on his breeding and the fact that his 2 wins have come in one turn races. He has been beaten By Vekoma in the BlueGrasss Stakes and Tacitus and Outshine in the Tampa Bay Derby. He is always well backed at the windows so in some regards he is a “money burner” and I see him as a longshot in the race. Another one I will pass on.
Country House: Bill Mott’s second entry, this colt has only a maiden win in 6 lifetime starts so why is he in here? He has been beaten by Omaha Beach and Improbable in the Arkansas Derby, By My Standards, Spinoff and Sueno in the Louisiana Derby and War of Will in the Risen star. If he can’t win the Arkansas and Louisiana Derbies how is he going to win the Kentucky Derby? He seems to have trouble getting out of the gate and he lost ground in the stretch of his last two 1-1/8 miles races. Another longshot and another colt I will pass on.
Gray Magician: I doubt that Peter Miller will secure his first Derby win with this colt. In fact he might be the longest shot on the board when the gates open. He has one win in 8 career starts, was beaten by Plus Que Parfait in Dubai (you know how I feel about horses going to Dubai to race), was 5th in an optional claiming race in January and does not have the breeding to get the 1-1/4 miles. Again, I will pass.
Spinoff: Todd Pletcher’s 2nd entry in the race, this colt has hit the board in all 4 of his career starts. He was 2nd in the Louisiana Derby to By My Standards, after grabbing the lead in mid-stretch. In that race he finished ahead of Sueno and War of Will. His speed figures have improved with every start as the distances have increased. He is a son of Hard Spun, a horse who ran 2nd in the Derby so I think that the distance should not be a problem for him in the Derby. He will likely be double digit odds in the Derby and might be a sneaky price horse in the tri or superfectas. However, I don’t think I will be playing him in the exotics as there are other colts that I prefer over him.
Master Fencer: This colt got into the Derby by way of a racing series in Japan. He certainly seems like he can handle the distance as all of his 6 career starts in Japan have been at distances of a mile or longer, including two 1-1/4 mile grass races. All that being said, I have no idea what his competition was in Japan and I will have to pass on this colt.
In the event that there is a scratch or two before the derby, these two other colts might get into the race.
Bodexpress: He is trained by Gustavo Delgado, a trainer I know nothing about who has only started 36 horses in races this year. Bodexpress is still a maiden after 5 starts. The only reason he might get in the Derby is that he ran 2nd in the Florida Derby at odds of 71-1. His breeding suggests that he will not be able to handle the 1-1/4 miles in the Derby. Three maidens have won the derby, the last one being Brokers Tip in 1933. Eleven maidens have started in the Derby since 1937 and the best finish of those was 8th place. Can’t even fathom betting on him – even with someone else’s money.
Signalman: This Ken McPeek trainee has been fairly consistent in his 7 lifetime starts, being in the money in 6 of those races. However, he has been beaten by 7 other Derby entrants in his races, but he has been in the money in 3 races over the CD surface, including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club and a 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If he gets in, he will likely be at double digit odds, and I might have to give him a long, hard look in the exotics.
Now the moment of truth, how will I play the race? It will be tough to leave Omaha Beach out of any discussion as to whom might win the race, but I have concerns about him as stated in my analysis. I have always liked Vekoma, but again, I think that his way of moving through the stretch may not serve him well. I will probably make a win bet on either Tacitus or Game Winner with a slight edge to Game Winner. So, my bets might look something like this - a win on Game Winner, an exacta box using Game Winner, Tacitus, Roadster and Omaha Beach. I will play a 5-colt trifecta box with these four plus Vekoma. OK, I know what you’re thinking, “This is a very chalky group of bets” I know that but the goal is to cash tickets and with this group of colts it is hard to look past the ones I have listed to find a “live longshot”. This is a very competitive race. Any one of 7 or 8 colts could easily win, so as usual I reserve the right to change my mind and make different bets than those listed above. Hopefully everyone will enjoy the event and maybe I will come home a WINNER!!!!!!!!!!

Man Who Says He Won $609K on Derby Is Offered $35K Due to Sportsbook’s Cap

My Preakness Analysis

The Preakness should be a pretty good race to bet this year mostly because most have marks against them and the race looks wide open. This is the type of race I enjoy betting the most because there is always value if you can figure out who will move forward and who will regress or is simply outclassed. So my thoughts are below for those who likes an opinion of what might happen. Or maybe not, but I will at least take a small chance based on the way I see it.

War Of Will(4-1)---- I ended up betting him to WP in the Ky Derby when I saw the track was going to be sloppy. However, when he was going down the stretch the first time, it look to me like he was bothered by the kickback of the off track and took a while to get used to it. While he lost a couple of lengths when he got tangled up with MS and a couple of others, he was able to make most of it back up when MS swerved back towards the rail and bumped with COH turning for home. His jockey sensing he still was in the thick of it, used him pretty hard in the stretch and faded late. Since he has no works since that start that I can use as a measuring stick to how he came out of that start, I will try to beat him and will look at others to include in my exotics.

2) Bourbon War(12-1)---- Last seen running 4th in the Fla Derby where he had little chance of catching the pace setters through slow fraction for a G1 race. So that race is a toss for me. However, in the FOY, he was allowed to wait until the pace setters burned each other out and he was along in time to pick up the pieces. In the Preakness, he will be facing better horses than he faced that day, so I believe he will not benefit from tiring front runners in this race as much as he did in that race. And with the addition of blinkers, it helps some horses but is also a detriment to other horses by making them to keen to go to early. So while he definitely has a chance to win, I will be looking elsewhere.

3) Warrior's Charge(12-1)---- After opening his career with 3 thirds in three maiden special weights against several good sprinters, he has won his last two going away after being stretch out and being put on the lead, both in good times. Supplemented to this race for $150,000, he sports the same trainer as Monomoy Girl, who beat the best 3 YO fillies racing had to offer last year, using similar tactics. Warrior's Charge's sire Munnings, is a look alike replica of Secretariat, including the built, three white socks and the blazed face. However, he was bred with too much speed influence to resemble Secretariat on the track, though he is inbred to him. However, his broodmare sire, Broken Vow, is a son of Unbridled out of a daughter of Nijinsky II, so that should give him enough stamina to be a major factor, especially since starting with Warrior's Charge's 4th dam, you see, Roberto, Tom Fool, Princequillo, War Admiral and the best bloodlines racing had to offer in dams for generations on back. So, he will be included in my exotics. A definite in my trifecta and super boxes.

4) Improbable(5-2)----The morning line favorite for this race and off as the favorite in the Ky Derby, he really had no shot to win the derby as he was behind a wall of horses for most of that running with no room to get through until he was left with too much to do. With such a good jockey on him, you should have expected a much better ride than he actually got. Now Baffert goes to his main jockey over the last few years, gives his a horse a maintenance breeze, indicating he came out of the derby ready to get another shot at winning and he certainly would be no real surprise if he did just that. While I will definitely include him in my super box, at least, I will go for others in my exacta, trifecta and WP bets.

5) Owendale(10-1)---- Another trained by Brad Cox, his best race came in the G3 Lexington S and while it was decent, I believe he will need to step up his game to a level he has not shown yet to be a factor, so I will pass.

6) Market King(30-1)--- Another who will need by far a career best even to compete against these, so he is another pass for me.

7) Alwaysmining(8-1)---- I feel he is a wise guy type of horse and he has beaten very little except Win Win Win but that came on a good track and at a distance he should have like more than that horse. His trainer is trying for his first G1 win and he picked a tough spot to accomplished that. Even Signalman has beaten him and he simply looks like a horse for the course type and he has never won away from Laurel Park. Will make him beat me, especially at his projected odds.

8) Signalman(30-1)--- Here is one that would be a mistake to not at least consider. He has two starts this year, the first in the FOY when his trainer tried to get him ready by working him in a 46 3/5, followed by a slow work, then another good work, followed by another slow work, indicating he was not ready to fire. Then after two more good works to sharpen his speed, he ran him in the Blue Grass S on Keeneland's heavy speed favoring track, changed the horse's running style to keep him close to the pace and he flatten out late to just miss 2nd. He decided early to bypass the derby because he was on the outside needing a couple of scratches and pointed him towards this race instead. Four more solid works since the BG and he is sitting on ready. And for those of you who does not know who Ken McPeek is, he has trained a Ky Derby runner up in 1995(Tejano Run), A Belmont S winner(Sarava at 70-1 denying War Emblem a TC and beating Medaglia D'Oro in 2002), and a Travers DH winner(Golden Ticket at 30-1 finished in a DH with Alpha in 2012). He was also trainer of Take Charge Lady and more recently, Daddy's Lil Darling. I hope they let him off at 30-1 because I will slam them. On all my exotics bets.

9) Bodexpress(20-1)--- While still a maiden, he had a pretty good run going in the Ky Derby before he was taken up and lost all chance. However, he is bred to love the off going and it was probably the biggest reason he was still in that race that late. He probably will not get the conditions that will flatter his style in this start, so I will pass on using him.

10) Everfast(50-1)--- Will need by far a career best and I can not phantom where he will get that from. Pass.

11) Laughing Fox(20-1)--- His only race worth noting was the Ark Derby and someone had to run 4th in that race and the top two were much the best. So he will need a major improvement, just to get close to hitting the board, so I will have to pass.

12) Anothertwistafate(6-1)---- Another who I think will be overbet for what he has accomplished and both G3 defeats came against others who would look (or does) overmatched in here. Pass, not willing to accept low odds on this one.

13) Win Win Win(15-1) --- He was the horse I liked the most heading up to the Ky Derby, but I ended up changing my mind because of the sloppy conditions, his outside post on that track and his BG run gave me some doubt he could give it his best run after such a hard race to just become eligible. I usually find it hard to bet any horse in their next start(or I often regret doing so) after he checked and then had to closed that much ground in such a short stretch. And he ended up proving either that thought was right or that he was simply not good enough. I am going with the former thought because I know how difficult it is to close on sloppy racetracks without a blazing pace, something he did not get in the derby. He will be in all my exotics tomorrow.

My Bets: $40 WP 8, $5 Ex Box 8-13, $2 Ex Box 3-8-13, $1 Tri Box 3-8-13, $3 Tri Key 8 With 3-13 with 3-13, $4 Tri Key 8-13 with 8-13 with 3, .10 Super Box 3-4-8-13, $2 Super Key 8 With 3-4-13 with 3-4-13 with 3-4-13. Total Cost $136.40. Good Luck To All!!

exacta box bet 3 horses video

An exacta box is a wager whereby the bettor plays a number of horses to finish either first or second. The cost of the ticket is determined by the base bet amount and the number of combinations. For example, a $1 exacta box with three horses would cost $6 ($1 x 3 possible winners x 2 possible second-place finishers). What is an exacta key? When you select a horse to win and a group of horses to finish second and third, the "key horse must win, but the other selections can finish second and third in any order. Essentially, it is combining a win bet with an exacta box. Racing Pick Three An exacta wheel bet requires a specific finishing order from 2 sets of horses. Note that an exacta box bet requires any order of 3 or more horses. Your exacta wheel bet wins if a horse from the 1st key finishes first and a horse from the 2nd key finishes second. Cost: $2 per Combination. Exacta Wheel Cost. This calcuation is more complicated because the same horse can included in multiple keys ... The most common exacta is the box, which involves playing two or more horses. A $2 exacta box using the 1 and 2 horse would cost $4. Below are the costs associated with $2 exacta boxes: $2 exacta box of 3 horses = $12 The betting slip will reflect $2 Exacta (2-5). This shows that the bet is placed on horses #2 and #5 and that horse #2 is predicted to place first, while horse #5 is predicted to place second. Exacta Box Betting. Boxing an Exacta is an easy way to secure your winning. Boxing lets your selected horses come in any order and still win. Exacta Box 1,2: $4 (two combinations) Exacta Box 1,2,3,4: $24 (12 combinations) Exacta Box 1,2,3,4,5: $40 (20 combinations) The more horses you add to an Exacta Bet, the more likely you are to lose money in the end. If you bet on 8 horses, you have more chances of winning, but you would be lucky to make $30, resulting in a loss of nearly $650 ... So, what is an exacta box bet? This bet allows the two horses you have selected to finish in any order. In other words, you are only picking the horses that you think will finish first and second. It does not matter which of them wins and which one runs second. As long as they claim the top two spots you are a winner and will receive a payout. Unlike a straight exacta the exacta box is ... For example, if you choose three horses in a boxed exacta, any two of your horses need to finish first and second – but you now have six possible combinations, so a $1 boxed Exacta will cost you $6. What is an Exacta Key Box Bet? An exacta key box bet allows you to focus on one selection and select other "non-key" selections to finish alongside the "key." The Key Box exacta bet is very ... Exacta: First two horses in a race; Trifecta: First three horses in a race; Superfecta: First four horses in a race; Daily Double: Winners of two races in a row; Pick 3, Pick 4, and so on: Winners of several races in a row; Basic Exacta Bets. As you can see above, betting an exacta requires you to pick the exact order of finish in terms of who finishes first and who finishes second in a race ... Etsy Team Gent Forum - Member Profile > Profile Page. User: Exacta box bet bitcoin payout, exacta box bet bitcoin 3 horses, Title: New Member, About: Exacta box bet bitcoin payout, exacta box bet bitcoin 3 horses ...

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HORSE RACING**HOW TO BET AN EXACTA, TRIFECTA AND ...

This video is about what is an exacta horse bet and it shows how to place the four different variations of an exacta horse bet at HorseBetting.com. These inc... CASINOLOGY presents the video, "Casinology: HORSE RACING** HOW TO BET A "BOX". Hosted by Vanessa, Casinology is divided into two programming segments. The ... Weekend Handicapper explains what an exacta box in horse racing and offers some advice on how to bet them.https://www.amazon.com/Superfecta-Profits-Master-Ha... Betting 101 - Exacta Box Thoroughbred Handicapper Jarrod Horak shares his favorite three exacta wagering strategies for https://therunawayhorse.com/index.html. He uses recent races a...