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[Plot-Result] Sand in the White City
Finding a man in a city like White Harbour was no easy task. Finding a man in a city like White Harbour during Winter, with the streets even more crowded by people who wait for Spring here, was even harder. But the men of House Mormont were determined and so was Bryalla. She wouldn't let the man get away who attacked Nyra Qorgyle - not after Bryalla did everything to keep her save beyond the wall. The Mormont men split in smaller groups, so they could search for the man faster. It was like they were looking for a needle in a stack of hay. And indeed a needle they didn't find - but something else instead. A piece of cloth layed on the ground and for that alone it stood out. In Winter a scarf like that doesn't stay somewhere long before someone grabs it to keep the cold away. And upon further inspection it stood out even more - it was unusually lightly woven, a technique the people of the North didn't use, just because it couldn't keep the cold out as well. An old woman passed the three men as they held the cloth in their hands. "No respect! The youth these days! No respect! Back in the day someone like that would have been chased through the streets!", the white haired woman loudly shrieked, a finger lifted like a governess teaching children, "no respect I tell you! Pushing an old woman too the side, I nearly fell!" And of course the woman's complaining sparked the interest of the search party. "Wha' man are ye talkin' 'bout? A dornish man?", one of the men asked. "Well he looked like he spent too much time in the sun - that's for sure! Burned every ounce of respect away, I tell you that! No respect these days!" "Where did he go? Tha' man?" "There! The snowy Gull! I bet he stole money to get drunk! No respect the youth of today! Back in the...", the old woman kept rambling on, while the men looked across each other and nodded. One of them quickly set out to inform the others, while the two remaining made their way for the Inn, the woman sent them to. The Innkeeper greeted the duo as they entered, but as he saw the serious look on their faces, his mood shifted as well. Those wouldn't be usual costumers. "We're lookin' fo' a man; maybe Dornish. A nan said he came 'ere. 'ave ye seen him?" As they questioned the Inn-keeper, their reinforcement arrived. The sight of this dozen men and the woman in the front quickly proved to be more effective than the coins the Dornish man paid him. "Aye, he was here, left not too long ago. Said he wanted to ride for Ramsgate, but that's not where he went - saw him walking to the harbour instead. He stayed here for a month, but in a panic like that I haven't seen him. You'll recognise him, looks just like you imagine a dornish to look." It didn't take long for the Bear Islanders to make their way out of the Inn and to the harbour. Men who didn't want to be seen were oftentimes the ones standing out amongst a crowd and this time it was no different. There he stood, the man they have been looking for. And now he would feel what it's like to poke the bear. Blocking all of his escape routes, Bryalla was the one to make the final approach on him.
First Saturday in May The last delay of the Kentucky Derby was in 1945, which was for a national ban on horse racing that lasted 6 months. Now comes 2020 and a whole new era for horse racing and the world as a whole- new fears, concerns, coupled with political ideologies and whatever else the conspiracy theorists can throw at the masses. As we approach on the first Saturday in May, instead of getting excited about a Bob Baffert entry that ran a huge Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby, we wonder when we will see tracks besides Tampa Bay Downs, Los Alamitos, Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park. I suppose I should give honorable mentions to Will Rogers Downs, and Fonner Park helping keep the action hunting horseplayer happy. For the first time in 20 years, the first Saturday in May for me, will be a day for some live action bets at Oaklawn Park- a split Arkansas Derby and some work around my house. Not because I do not enjoy Oaklawn Park, but because horse racing had an opportunity to exploit its best product to the entire world and I am quite frankly sad this is what we get. A split division Arkansas Derby feels like 1 solid race that should have had 14 entries for a great wagering opportunity. The “B” division is lackluster and reminds me of a field of what if’s and could be’s that by the time the Kentucky Derby comes around in September. Charlatan is a huge morning line favorite with the triple digit Beyer’s but after that, what is left? This could be a 3-horse race with Gouverneur Morris, Shooters Shoot and Charlatan. Let us pretend they move those 3 to the 13th race and you have a 14-horse field full of questions and hope. Sure, Code Runner and Saratogian feel outclassed, but all the big races have a few that do not belong, so we leave them in for the sake of being here. Imagine the battle that ensues on this spotlight day. Charlatan vs Nadal vs King Guillermo vs Storm the Court vs Wells Bayou vs Taishan with Farmington Road trying to close late? Now that ladies and gentlemen is a race that draws fans, captures imaginations and brings the best aspect of horse racing wagering to the general public. Big field, with value opportunities. Just typing this what could have been match up, excites me and would have won me over for this Saturday. Instead we get a Grade 3 type Arkansas Derby in race 11, a nice Oaklawn Handicap in race 12 and what should still be a solid Grade 1 race in the real Arkansas Derby. So, I return to my thoughts of the first Saturday in May and beyond looking to a summer of question and doubt of what we will see, NYRA at Belmont, The Great Race Place or Where the Turf Meets the Surf. Are we witnessing the slow bleed out of Arlington Park and a summer with no Saratoga? With every sport idled for this pandemic, horse racing had the spotlight for the hour, and what they have done with it, saddens me for what could have been. Will we see a run for the Roses, hear the roar of Pimlico, or the drama of the Belmont, have we witnessed our last Arlington Million and Beverly D Stakes? Sure, state and local governments have prevented some tracks from running, but those that are, have fully they seized their opportunities with this audience? Eventually we will see a Triple Crown race, and for me, for 2020 it has lost its appeal, even as a lifelong horse racing fan, and not because of memories or folklore of the greats, but because of what was possible for the growth of the sport, and the way it was handled. When sports return, we will go back to our mediocre handles and be content with small purses wondering what it will take for horse racing to grow once again. Perhaps I am too romantic for horse racing and captured by my own memories and emotions of yesteryear. Wanting to feel normal and watch the world experience the greatest 1.25-mile race in the world, in May with all the mystery that surrounds the horses, the pedigrees and their connections. In a time when horse racing had it all, did they have anything? Bryan Doranski is a freelance columnist, and active horseplayer, frequently seen in National Horseplayer Championship tournaments, and cash contests.Visit him on Twitter (@BDHorseplayer) and accepting of opportunities for columns regarding horse playing, contests and wagering.
Picture this: you wrap up work early for the weekend, print off a copy of the past performances for your favorite track, and head to the track, or the OTB, or to wherever it is that you go to watch the races. You flip open the form to race 1, and are dismayed to find out that it is a Maiden Special Weight race featuring 8 horses, all of whom are first time starters. Sound familiar? What do you do? Do you skip the race completely and focus on the next race? Do you just use the top 3 choices on the morning line hoping you can survive this race and get on to the next leg of your pick 3 or pick 5? Maybe you just tail the announcers pick on TVG? Without any prior races, this race is a complete guess, right? Wrong. One of the most common questions in the horseracing discord (which you should totally join by the way (https://discordapp.com/invite/uzdG5TV) is how to handle first time starters. I’m here to provide some fundamental handicapping material that will help turn first time starters from a complete guess into an educated wagering opportunity. While it’s true that handicapping first time starters is a bit different, a significant portion of the betting public struggles with these races, often providing us with some prime overlay opportunities for live horses at generous prices. This will not be a comprehensive guide to every possible method to handicap a race with first time starters, but rather aims to provide the average handicapper with a foundation to make first time starters more approachable. There are 3 key subjects to cover when handicapping first time starters: Connections, Pedigree, and Workouts. I will provide information and examples on each of the 3 main topics, and share some of my personal favorite angles that are a bit more nuanced at the end of the article. Connections: Connections are likely the most obvious and easiest place to start when evaluating a first time starter. By connections, I am referring to the owner, trainer, and jockey. The trainer is by far the most important piece of the connections in terms of getting horses ready for racing. Some trainers are renowned for having their first time starters live and ready to fire (Brown, Ward, etc), whereas other trainers are not as focused on winning at first asking (Mott, Chug). Instead, they will race their horses into top condition and are much more likely to win second or third time out. Look up the relevant stats for the trainer of the horse in question to see what his strike rate is with first time starters. DRF Formulator is the best resource available for looking up trainer stats, but most PPs will provide relevant stats in some fashion. Knowing that a trainer hits at 15% with first time starters is an okay starting point, but it really helps to dive deeper. Some trainers are elite at getting first time starters ready in turf sprints, but are very poor when it comes to dirt routes. Likewise, some trainers are excellent at the maiden claiming level, but do significantly worse with the step up to maiden special weight company. It is important to understand the details of what goes into the overall first time starter win percentage before betting it blindly. The jockey is the second piece of the connections puzzle. By and large, you will handicap the jockey for a first time starter the same way as you would in a normal race. Jockeys who are known for getting their mounts out of the gate with a clean break and being able to get young horses to relax out front will make me upgrade that horse. Additionally, it can be helpful to know which jockeys typically ride for which trainers, especially if a trainer has multiple mounts entered. If John Velazquez is on a Todd Pletcher first time starter, that horse could be a contender as JV is the typical first call pilot for Pletcher’s barn. What can oftentimes be more telling is when the first call pilots are not riding the first time starter of their trainer. If Velazquez is riding a horse for another barn despite a Pletcher horse being entered, and the jockey on the Pletcher horse is not a typical rider for that outfit, I will significantly downgrade the Pletcher horse under the assumption JV had an opportunity to ride and was not impressed or liked the other mount better. Note that this angle does not apply if the standard first call jockeys are not riding at the track in question on that day. The owner is the last piece of the puzzle, and arguably the most difficult and least useful tool in handicapping. Similar to how trainers have their favorite jockeys, owners have their favorite trainers. A Klaravich Stables horse trained by Chad Brown with Castellano aboard demands serious consideration regardless of other factors, but small barns can be dangerous too. Smaller stables who are more cautious about spotting their horses than some of the mega-stable powerhouses can often be great value while the big-name stables take the public money. Keep an eye out for owners who target certain meets, such as Saratoga, as sometimes they will run horses at a slightly lower level than they are capable in order to try to win the meet title. Pedigree: Personally speaking, pedigree is the most challenging tool to add to your toolbox, but an invaluable one when it comes to dealing with first time starters. Quoting pedigree expert Lauren Stitch, the male parts (sire and damsire) of a horse’s pedigree are the keys to the surface and distance, and the female part (dam) of the pedigree influences a horse’s class. Before proceeding, I will strongly recommend that you evaluate a horse’s pedigree on the whole. That is, a horse by Tapit out of a mare who went 0/3 lifetime is not necessarily unable to compete at the maiden special weight ranks just because the dam was not a winner. Treat the surface, distance, and class influence as more of a guideline than strict rule. That said, the first thing I usually do is to review the sire of the horse in question. Did the sire win his debut? Did the sire win at today’s distance? What about today’s surface? Does the sire’s progeny generally win first time out? I make frequent use of equibase, bloodhorse, and pedigreequery when trying to answer these questions. I will then check the same information on the damsire as well as the second sire (grandsire). I personally rarely go back farther than 2 generations due to time constraints and the fact I find limited value in that exercise, but everyone has their own preferences. Most people are familiar with strong debut sires, and it’s unlikely that people will overlook a Tapit or Uncle Mo first time starter. However, the dam is often a crucial and overlooked component of a horse’s pedigree. I try to answer the same questions above about the dam to gauge ability. Often, the dam was unraced or only lightly raced – evaluating the granddam can often be useful in situations such as these. Next, I look for siblings. While stallions may cover hundreds of mares in a given breeding season, mares usually only have 1 foal in any given year. I want to see if the dam of my horse has produced any winners. If so, did they win at first asking, on what surface, at what distance, etc. It is not uncommon to have a lightly raced mare be an excellent dam of very successful and precocious runners despite not finding much success as a racehorse herself. An excellent resource for identifying siblings is to use pedigreequery.com; search for the dam, and go to reports > progeny. That will allow you to find the siblings and look them up on equibase (the race results and career record/earnings is often incorrect on pedigreequery). Workouts: In the absence of races, morning workouts are the next best way to measure a horse’s ability. Workout reports (or clocker reports) are hands down the most effective resource available to judge a horse’s workout. There is already a great article written on how to use workout reports, so I won’t delve deep into that topic but encourage everybody to check out the article here (https://www.reddit.com/horseracing/comments/bc9zob/using_clockerworkout_reports/) Even without clocker reports, workouts can still be useful in evaluating a horse. The actual time of the workout is not nearly as important as many imagine it to be. A rough rule of thumb is 12 seconds per furlong is an okay workout fraction, but many trainers intentionally do not work their horses quickly in the mornings so the times may be deceiving. I’ll take note of an exceptionally fast workout (think 46 seconds for 4f), or if there appears to be a pattern emerging where a horse has shown improved/declining workout times over the past few works, but otherwise I don’t really use them. More important than the times themselves are the frequency and spacing of the workouts. Young horses should be working often and consistently, no more than 2 weeks apart between works and oftentimes less than that. If I see a horse who was working out every 7 days, then abruptly goes 21 days without a workout before starting up again, that is a red flag to me. Something likely went wrong with the horse, whether it was soreness or something else that prevented him from working out on his normal schedule. Frequent gaps in an otherwise consistent workout tab are generally an indicator of a troubled horse. A word of caution: some trainers are sneaky and will work their horses on a private facility that will not be documented in the past performances. Keep an eye out for patterns of trainers who have successful first time starters with odd-looking workout patterns. It is likely they are being worked off-track and the workouts are not published. A personal angle for me with first time starters is to look for at least 1 workout from the gate, indicated with a “g” in the workout line. At the maiden level, more races are won in front running fashion than at any other level in racing. That makes the break from the gate critically important, as missing the break can often cost a horse a race immediately. While there are certainly no guarantees, seeing a gate workout gives me a little more confidence that this horse can handle the break and have a fair shot at the start. Note: while seeing 1 or 2 gate works is encouraging, seeing a large number of gate works can be cause for concern. Gate works are not that common for experienced horses, so if a horse has worked from the gate 5 or 6 times in his last 10 works there is a strong chance he is breaking poorly, hitting the gate, or otherwise acting up. Last, check for the surface that the workouts have been taking place on. A horse debuting on turf that has at least one turf workout under his belt is promising that he should be familiar with the surface already. Note that the (d) in turf workouts indicates the “dogs” were out – cones placed in a line out from the rail to try to preserve the inner part of the turf track. When working with the dogs out, horses are traveling wider around the turns and times may be slightly slower. Putting it all together: I figured it might be useful to provide a quick example of how I would handicap a first time starter, so I opened my PPs to Saratoga tomorrow and went to the first maiden special race I could find, race 2 on tomorrow’s program. We will be discussing the 8 horse, Duress. https://preview.redd.it/8xju3317zk931.png?width=1224&format=png&auto=webp&s=d455c6568fdf791732c9fa01f38b77983c935bd4 Let’s walk through our 3 key building blocks. First, the connections. The first thing I notice is that this trainer is not strong with debut runners despite being a 15% overall trainer on the year, as he has a 3% strike rate with 1st time starters out of 32 starts. However, Manny Franco is one of the top jockeys on the NYRA circuit, and these two have found some success together in the past judging from their 1 for 5 (20% win, 60% in the money) strike rate together with a very strong +$2.04 ROI. I’m not familiar with the owner, and after some quick research he seems to run most of his horses in the NYRA circuit (and a few at finger lakes) with 7 winners from 42 starters (17% win) so far in 2019. I also noticed that the majority of his horses are trained by Robert Ribaudo, today’s trainer for our horse Duress. These same connections (Franco, Ribaudo, Keller) won impressively with 9-1 shot maiden special weight winner Opt on June 9 at Belmont going 8.5 furlongs on the turf. As for pedigree, I love Violence offspring. Violence was 4-3-1-0 as a racehorse but forced into early retirement due to a leg injury. He won his debut race at 7f on the dirt, and won up to 8.5f. He never tried the turf, but if you look closer you will notice that 14% of his runners win on the turf, and 14% of his runners win the first time they try turf. The average winning distance of his offspring (AWD) is 6.6 furlongs, suggesting that this sprint distance should be favorable for Duress. Violence’s sire, Medaglia d’Oro, was a world class horse on dirt but also is known for producing outstanding turf offspring and has passed that gene down to Violence as well. Duress’ dam, Mattieandmorgan, was 0/7 in her racing career with 2 second place finishes. The connections elected to turn her into a broodmare rather than drop her into maiden claiming ranks where she could be claimed away. Her sire, Smart Strike, was a Grade 1 winner on dirt and never tried on turf. Her dam, Lady Shirl earned nearly $1,000,000 and won 18 of 41 starts, including a Grade 1 stakes, on the turf. Duress’ siblings include Hook Em, who is 2/24 and took a while to break his maiden but does have a turf win to his name. Duress’ other two siblings are a combined 0/9. Lastly, the workouts for Duress appears solid. I do not have workout reports, so I’m limited to what we see above. The work pattern is fairly consistent, with a workout every 8-10 days or so since May, including a respectable gate workout on June 23. The times are all in the ballpark of what I am looking for, although I’d like to see at least one turf workout on the tab. From my analysis, this horse has connections that are on the weaker side with debut runners, but a strong jockey takes the mount who has had success with this outfit before. The pedigree is very solid on the male side, as Violence produces a lot of first out winners on turf. The dam has not had much success in racing, and neither has the majority of her offspring. The granddam, however, was an outstanding turf horse. The workouts are well spaced with adequate times, including a gate work, but no turf works. If you’ve read this far (God bless you), you’re now wondering “yeah okay so do I bet this horse or not?”. Unfortunately, that’s a question you have to answer on your own. This horse has both a variety of positive and negative factors going for him, which is often the case in horse racing. It’s up to you to handicap the rest of the field and decide if he fits in or not. At the morning line of 15-1 I think he provides fair value, and if I play the pick 5 tomorrow I will likely include him on a few tickets but not a primary play. Miscellaneous Angles The above should provide most handicappers with enough material to develop a foundation for handicapping first time starters. I’ve included this section as a bit of a catch-all for random angles I’ve picked up that have helped me find winners in the past but are not that common. Purchase Price vs Stud Fee: many handicappers will look towards a $1,000,000 Curlin colt purchased by Coolmore and assume the horse is a lock to win early. Often that is not the case. An angle I’ve found more reliable than simple purchase price is the purchase price of a horse compared to the stud fee (or average purchase price of all offspring) of his sire. A horse who sells at auction for $400,000 out of a sire who only commands a stud fee of $10,000 is worth paying attention to. This horse clearly impressed somebody enough to attract that kind of money and was not sold based on name brand value alone. Inversely, a colt out of a leading sire who stands for $250,000 (War Front, Tapit, etc) but only sells for $20,000 at auction raises questions. Clearly this horse has not developed the way the breeder has hoped to return such a small amount despite the big-name pedigree. Tote Watching: If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. This is a game riddled with insider knowledge, backside rumors, and hot tipsters. However, if a first time starter from a smaller barn is listed at 15-1 on the ML but opens up at 7/2 and hangs out in that range, there’s a strong chance people “in the know” think this horse is live. I’ll upgrade a horse who takes significant action at the window for no apparent reason, but not enough to change my overall opinion if I feel strongly about him one way or another. Dam Productivity Index/Sire Productivity Index (Brisnet PPS only*)*: The Dams Production Index (dpi) which compares the earnings of this dam’s produce with the average earnings of the produce of all North American broodmares. The average is established as 1.00 so, if a dam’s dpi is 2.00 this means that her produce average earnings are twice the national average (Two-year old, maiden, and turf races only). The Sire Production Index (spi) which compares the earnings of this sire’s and broodmare sire’s offspring with the average earnings of the offspring of all North American sires. The average is established as 1.00 so, if a sire’s spi is 2.00 this means that his offspring average earnings are twice the national average. Basically, this is a rough at-a-glance way to determine the class of a sire/damsire/dam’s offspring. Resources: http://www.equibase.com/ https://www.pedigreequery.com/ https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing https://www.drf.com/ http://www.brisnet.com/content/
Saturday October 19, 2019 Belmont Park Race: 5 (2:32 PM EST Post) Empire Classic Pat On the Back has pretty much owned NYSBs for most of his career before coming from behind to beat opens in the Grade: 2 Kelso Mile last time out. This five year old son of Congrats ran that distance in a snappy 1:33.4 that day and “big sandy” is clearly his favorite surface as his 11-6-3-2 career mark over it would indicate ………..narrowest of margins over the speedy Mr. Buff, who also destroyed NYSBs two and three starts back. This five year old gelding by Friend of Foe, who stands for $1,000, set the pace but understandably folded in deep stretch when he was in over his head in the Grade: 1 Woodward in his last. He now takes a serious drop in class and cuts back in distance in this spot. Bottom line here is, in taking Pat On the Back, this guy scares the daylight out of me………………Dynamax Prime is having a very good 2019 as his 10-4-3-1 record states. Good looking gelding by Bluegrass Cat chased Mr. Buff around the NYRA circuit over the summer and wasn’t embarrassed by any stretch of the imagination…looks best of the rest. Race: 10 (5:20 PM EST Post) Empire Distaff Other than a failed turf experiment, no one has ever been close to Newly Minted through her first four (dirt) starts. This bay filly, by Central Banker from the Linda Rice barn, has won from six furlongs to nine furlongs and possesses excellent tactical speed as she can win from on or off the pace. She was super impressive winning her last by a colossal margin and fired a bullet work recently, signaling she is holding form…..solid choice……………….Ratajkowski is three for five in her career and was brilliant wiring State Bred optionals by 10 in her last while gets 8 ½ furlong in a very good 1:41.4. This daughter of Drosselmeyer takes a big steps up in class here but her speed figures say she might handle it…………………Midnight Disguise is another from the Rice barn who appears to be cycling back into her Stakes winning form from last year. I won’t be that surprised if she “ambushes” this field. Keeneland Race Course Race: 9 (5:30 PM EST Post) Raven Run Stakes Indian Pride ran off the charts while wiring maidens at Saratoga in her debut. Filly by Proud Citizen won by nine and wasn’t going “all out” signaling there is plenty more left in the gas tank. Albeit, she is taking a monster step up in class the fact remains, there is no telling exactly how good she is at this point. I’ve been watching trainer Chad Brown for a long time now and he simply doesn’t put horses in races where they don’t belong…………………Speaking of Brown, he comes into this race with a nice 1-2 punch as Indian Pride’s stable mate Royal Charlotte, who is 5 for 6 in her career and has won on this oval before, looks next best. This gray, multiple Stakes winner by Cairo Prince merits respect in this spot……………….If you draw a line through Restless Rider’s complete dud race in the Kentucky Oaks, you’ll find a well bred filly who has been either first or second in all seven previous starts, including winning the Grade:1 Alcibiades last year. Her last five works have been strong and she has won or run well off of layoffs before…..looms a threat…………..Honorable Mentions: Horologist rattled off four straight wins before outrunning her 22-1 odds in the Grade: 1 Cotillion last time out (finished third). Nice looking filly by Gemologist finished less than four lengths behind pro-tem three year old filly division leader Guarana in the process…..could conceivably better this rating. Bell’s the One chased the freakishly fast Covfefe last time out and although she was no match against that beast, she ran very well that day……………….First Star is unbeaten in two starts. Daughter of the hulking First Dude takes a big step up in class but her speed figures also say she is not completely out of this one………………Irish Mischief and Needs Supervision both are consistent as the day is long, both come into this possibly sitting on big races and both merit long-shot possibilities in this spot. Paddock and pre-race warm ups will be key as to if/how I use them. By: Gerard Apadula Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) 2019- Record: 72-206 = 35% 2018- Record: 107-261= 41% 2017- Record: 92-235 = 39% 2016- Record: 91-229 = 40% 2015- Record: 67-180 = 37% 2014- Record: 29-73 = 40% 2013- Record: 20-59= 34% 2012 -Record: 24-73= 33% 2011 –Record: N/A 2010- Record: 24-74= 33% Little Bets N’ Pieces ***\* 2011 Kentucky Derby winner and Champion Three Year Old Male that same year, Animal Kingdom will be relocated from Darley’s Kentucky base to the stallion ranks at the Japan Bloodhorse Breeders’ Association. From three crops to race in each hemisphere, Animal Kingdom is the sire of 12 black-type winners and five at the group/graded level. **** Dennis’ Moment ripped five furlongs in a bullet :58.4 last weekend in preparation for next month’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. “It gave me goose bumps watching him work today,” said trainer Dale Romans). “He just went so easy… When [rider] Tammy [Fox] started off, I thought she was going too slow. I was starting to get a little aggravated, and Big John (Nichols, clocker) started clicking off the times. It just looked like he was galloping.” **** Owner Rick Porter said multiple Grade:1 winner Omaha Beach will run in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and said “for sure” that it won’t be his last race. Porter said Omaha Beach will conclude his 3-year-old season in the Malibu Stakes (Dec 26) and then will be pointed for the Pegasus Word Cup Invitational Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park. “As long as he is doing well, we’re going to go in the Malibu,” Porter said. “It’s for straight 3-year-olds and probably would be an easy spot for him. I had talked to [trainer] Dick [Mandella] and asked him about running in the [GI] Cigar Mile and he said there was no point shipping all the way to New York, coming back to California and then going to Florida when he could stay home and run in the Malibu.” **** Two time Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Enable, who just missed winning an unprecedented third Arc last week, will remain in training in 2020, Juddmonte Farm announced. “Prince Khalid has decided to keep Enable in training for 2020,” racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe said. “She has come out of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in good form and will not race again this year. Her racing program will be determined entirely on her well being, so no racing plans will be announced at this stage. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe remains an important target.”
Well, it’s been another year! Three years for a group like this is pretty powerful. Soon, we will achieve ultimate power! We won’t really get to do anything with it, but you know. But while we struggle in being non-ultimately powerful, let’s take a walk down memory lane with some of the things you guys voted as the best stuff of the year. Across the past month, each team has nominated and then voted on a few of their favorite events, characters, in-jokes and happenings of the previous year to share with everyone in the server. But first, let’s kick things off with something that’s shared between teams and is easy to make a poll about! Yes, it’s Shitposts! Best Shitpost In third place, we have The Massive Night-Time Voice Call Chats, when people would try and pile on as many people into one call as possible. In second place, we have Hubba using @Everyone, causing a panic, and forcing an entire chat room to be nuked. And, in first place, your best shitpost of the year… And this isn’t the only mention of it, folks... That time Frog accidentally posted porn and DanK changed his name for close to a year in order to remember! Good times, good times. Those said, let’s take a look at some of the things that made this year special and fun amid each of the teams in turn! We’re not really listing these in dramatic order, so let’s take it from the top! The Best of… Team A: "Sally Launcher": The first thing Team A would like to call your attention to is the "Sally Launcher"! After noticing a valuable stealable out of their reach during Chapter 7, the entire team devises a plan to get their thief to the other extreme of the map, in a plan that involves dances, swap staves, shoves and repositions, with a total of 7 units dedicating their turns to the cause. Shortly after, a reinforcement with another valuable stealable appears on the thief's original side, so a plan to launch her back is made. 42 tiles were travelled between those 2 attempts. Seed: In terms of characters who the team thought deserved a little special spotlight, we’ve got Seed, poetic and melancholy Florkana (tree-man) poet by peace, and bishop by war! (https://www.reddit.com/RedditEmblemRaces/comments/6xqfex/seed_viridius_florkana_priest_team_a/) “Deme clearly puts a lot of thought and effort into him, and it shows. Her RP posts are detailed, and Seed's emotions are tangible,” as one team member put it. "As your heart decrees": And last but not least, we’ll follow up with an RP! "As your heart decrees," an RP with Seed and Nyrandisa: (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xrUEedXarUotB8rQdgz1iYxrUpjgcH4G4I8YNheBqqQ/edit?usp=sharing) It's finally time for Seed to reply to Nyra's confession of love from earlier -- and he certainly did take his time. He has to turn her down: he still loves, and is still hurt by, his previous girlfriend. When she prods him on it, he admits readily that he wants to find new love one day -- but he can't until he's ready, and that's a hard road for him... But also, that she doesn't know him -- and he admits to someone else for the first time that he considers his own inner self to be an ugly, unlovable person, that he's tried to keep everyone from knowing. And he admits to both himself and Nyra, that, as devastating as even voicing the thought is for him, he wants someone to love that part of him. Nyra's hurt, and he comforts her -- neither of them did anything wrong in admitting their feelings like this. They can get closer, and things can get better -- and, on the beach, they're closer now. They only did what their hearts decreed. A temporary resolution for an ongoing subplot involving Nyra and Seed's feelings and miscommunications... But it's also probably the start of something, too, where they can begin to grow closer on more honest terms. “This one was gut wrenching to write, and but the writing turned out,” in Deme’s humble opinion, “to be very moving as a result. It was an important scene and marks a big character development for the both of them.” And since it got so far in Team A’s considerations, here’s a special nod to "Steamy Disaster.”. (http://reraces.blogspot.com/2018/08/uuu-steamy-disaster.html) Check it out if you’ve got a little extra time! The Best of… Team B The Determination Of The Team B Spirit!: It’s been a fairly quiet year for Team B, a team that’s had a lot of ups and downs on its long journey. Maybe that’s why they wanted to spotlight The Determination Of The Team B Spirit! That, or maybe they’ve written this text in blood on the walls of my home, because they’re a collective specter. I leave it to everyone’s imaginations and ghost stories. Ness's Prison Self RP :But it’s not all jokes, of course. That’s the next team. Ness's Prison Self RP. Ness depressingly reflects over the story of Team B so far and laments his current state. Dom put a lot of effort into this RP and it showed strong characterization. Walter Becoming the Tactician: We also have for the spotlight Walter Becoming the Tactician, A series of RPs by Krash where Walter, after the last chapter, decides to become the de facto tactician of the group and asks 5 different signatures for Dmitri’s permission. “I think this should be [in this post] since Walter's interactions shed light on other characters opinions,” explained one player. The Best of… Team C Team C decided to spend their send-up time this year on a bunch of in-jokes, and if Ama says that’s good enough, let’s take a moment to laugh with them (Laughing at them should be conducted in the privacy of your own home; this is a positive post, thank you.) So, here we go! Team C Epilogue: The Half-Life 3 of Epilogues! They also want to point out that they spent the year with Luna still being useless probably. They’re not sure, but her arms probably are still pretty noodly. And, while they were at it, they want to remember the time they spent Doing the Gallaran civil war and then nope-ing out. I mean, if they held a war and no one showed up, I guess that’s one way to handle it. The Best of… Team F Bellua: This year, they’ve got to call Bellua the best team player, for constantly dashing around the battlefield rescuing villages and stopping thieves. (And Krash, for always having covers and sound tactical advice.) Rhoslyn and Warner: And the character spotlight doesn’t stop there, since they wanted to call attention to these two! “They are extremely well characterized and expressive and have a very interesting and unique dynamic. I love watching Warner develop over time. Honestly, this is the kind of writing that I aspire to reach someday after lots of practice. A++” graded their nominator. Fun shipping antics: They also had and wanted to share some fun antics. Adding literally anyone (including NPCs and random map units) to Vincent and Sylana to make a threesome, ignoring the fact that inheritance mechanics absolutely do not work with threesomes. And a special nod to that time they forced Rod to RP with himself by guiding two NPCs together on a map. The Best of… Team G The end of Chapter 7: During an intense chapter where all hope often seemed lost featuring a giant regenerating boss-orb that had to be defeated on a time limit that could only be damaged by siege weapons usable by only a handful of units, which was itself surrounded by tough opponents, Shade and Deme created an elaborate plan to use various switching-and-swapping shenanigans to grant those who could damage the orb extra shots at it, for a total of 5 shots across 3 units, allowing the map to be completed early and before losses could become too severe. It was a magnificent display of pure cheese and teamwork that came from building off of ideas and refining them back and forth, triumphing over a difficult and intense map. "A Moment in the Storm": In terms of RP moments, even a fairly quiet year has something cool to recommend. "A Moment in the Storm"with Oisin and Lunete. (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mnuey9kpO4ANltPrYWmMqWvybK9i9I3La_wn8GY5e1E/edit?usp=sharing) While they're both fort-bound during a rainstorm, Oisin finds Lunete staring out at the weather by the gate. He was planning on going for a run, but she was watching the weather. She speaks for a time about how her homeland, Gnosi, has more or less flawless control of the weather so storms like that don't really happen much. This understandably upsets Oisin, whose entire reason for coming along was that he was sent to convince the Emperor of Parangelia to help his homeland with recovery. From the terrible storms. The terrible, ongoing storms that's devastating his island. Those storms. The storms that presumably, a whole other nation could have just... stopped. All along. He freaks out, contemplating the question of if his parents knew this, and were just sending him on some busy-work to get an inconvenient prince, an inconvenient son, out of the way. He's wildly frustrated, and Lunete calms him down, even though she cannot answer his doubts -- returning an old favor between them. As the nomination put it: ”It was a fun and unexpected moment for the two characters; the crossroads that could arise organically between the powerful magic of Gnosi and the needs of Enotita, as somewhat embodied by these two characters, is an interesting bit of setting lore, and it was a good opportunity to pry open Oisin's feelings and suspicions about his parent's valuing -- or lack thereof -- of him. It's a moment of solid character development to build on in the coming year.” Sequoia, Hatchling: And last, and with something of a fond farewell, we give a character spotlight to Sequoia, Hatchling. (https://www.reddit.com/RedditEmblemFates/comments/55rtnv/sequoia_hatchling_team_g_app/) Our resident phoenix, one of the more distinctively Team G character types. Besides being a beast (a bird, technically) on the battlefield, Sequoia's been a fixture of the team in RP, with a character that's friendly and fun to RP with while touching on the essential conflict inherent of the phoenix: 100 years out in the world before returning to your temple forever is long enough that old friends will die, sure, but is only a fraction of her life in which to be an independent person. She searches for a way to resolve those within herself. “The character is played very heartfelt, so while she's not extremely dramatic, she's very fun to engage with and to see her efforts at creating her recollections of the world in wood carvings,” her teammates would put it. The Best of… Team H AOM the GM: The first thing Team H would like to give spotlight to is their amazing GM, AOM, with this message: “Being a GM is hard. It's time consuming and you often don't get a lot of thanks from the players. It's especially difficult to get back into the swing of things after taking a long hiatus. I just want to give a special shout-out to the amazing AOM for never giving up on us, and continuing to wow us with fun maps and great settings. You're the best, dad.” Morrow Browne: While it’s hard to follow up on that, Team H does its best by showing off Morrow Browne! One of two Thieves of Team H, an absolute darling that rarely fails to bring out the paternal side of many characters, and an overall joy to RP with. May or may not be capable of actually thieving in maps themselves. “The reason I nominate Morrow,” explained the nominator, “is because she is an absolutely consistent delight to RP with each time we do so, much like her player, and has been arguably the single brightest spot in our team's RP scene.” Boat RP: In Room H1 (and a brief detour partway through in H2), an event RP is done around a storm taking place on the ship the crew is on. Said event results in a temporary demonstration of one particular character's power... “The reason I nominate said RP is because it worked as an interesting pivotal point for the growth and future events of several key characters, and was in and of itself a group RP that wound up going extremely smoothly overall, which can be a rarity in RE Emblem.” Special nods to: Runa Piet as a character, Riffat as a character, and Morrow getting swarmed on an enemy boat to try and reach a chest. The Best of… Team J Vera and Seldanion's RPs. For this year’s regards, Team J’s got a broad one: a series of RPs with Vera and Seldanion. Besides the fact that they're absolutely the most consistent roleplayers and make sure to put in more than enough effort, they're two genuinely interesting characters with a lot of fun dynamics that they bounce back and forth upon. It's the biggest overarching plot J really has, with the exception of the main story itself. The Best of… Team K The Climax of Chapter 3: While Team K had a number of wild moments this year, pride of place has to go to the climax of chapter 3. (https://www.reddit.com/Reddit_Emblem/comments/9cpw54/team_k_chapter_3_the_maze_of_books/) The chapter's central premise was collecting and assembling fragments of a story to act as a password to reach the room where the Enchantress, an important NPC, had locked herself in with a would-be assassin. As it got down to the wire, with just about a turn of life left in her, Burg's Amby comes on in and tells the story entirely in the character's own voice and idiosyncratic values and view of the world. “Can you name any fairytales with hunting morals? No? That's a shame. It was a joy to see Amby click and clatter her way, giving the tale the shape of a beloved Mantid bedtime tale,” as one player put it. Having opened the seal in time, the Enchantress is inspired to at least try and heal herself to keep going for just long enough that Kra's Evelynne can use some dance strats to swoop on in, rescue the damsel, and save the day as the battle against the stone man begins! It's an escalating climax where lots of the team took opportunities to work together to pull off a goal in the nick of time, tell important stories in fun and surprising way, and then top it off with a cool boss fight. “It was a lot of fun to watch unfold.” Alistair: Team K would also like Alistair himself to get the spotlight. Team K’s very own rambling, stuttering, over-enthusiastic young prince, is seeing the world for the first time in the midst of a war. The nomination speaks for itself: “He's one of the most unique Lords and GMPCs I've seen so far in RE. He's constantly developing and watching his story unfold is impressive and a joy. I always look forward to reading more about him and doing scenes with him.” The Ril and Amby Subplot: We started with Chapter 3, and we’ll end this note all the way back in chapter one with The Ril and Amby Subplot. (Starts in Miserabile Visu: https://docs.google.com/document/d/11xkt_3awmlIQbAO6hB09oY3BpuQ-u7kOU4UJ8gBmWPk/edit?usp=sharing Continues to Sidequest: Cleaning Up: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wWKS3MR99rypSTpU-BaJ7ZC6zBBNYquhKhQ6gx1CCt8/edit?usp=sharing) The shortest summary would be: This is a subplot about what happens when you bring an idealistic 11-year old to a battlefield, and expose him to one polite but occasionally ruthless and idiosyncratic Mining Mantis and her hunts. To hunt is to kill for food. Prey is a source of food. They aren't using their bodies anymore. She doesn't understand why this horrifies Ril, who can only push her away. Amid the blood and lack of glory of a battlefield, Ril struggled to hold onto the life of even just one fallen foe. Eventually, Amby and Ril are assigned to help pack up the camp, and try to bridge the gap of confusion, culture shock, and trauma. They don't quite come to an agreement about how you should act in war, but their hearts are in the right place. Also, Ril earns the trust and loyalty of Sir Toad-Frog. As a certain GM would put it, it was “An emotionally complex and moving subplot that really added punch and impact to the first real chapter of the story, sparking conflict and revealing some eventual features of Amby's culture, which is always a compelling subplot. Ril manages to stay a fairly lighthearted fighter in how he conducts with his foes, but this shock really grounded the character in ways I still look forward to seeing develop. It features some solid writing and some interesting themes for a boy and a Mantis.” And the team would also like to extend a special nod to “The Prince and the Unicorn, Chapter 1 Clear”(https://docs.google.com/document/d/1smJsLWz974VbtwwnG0iodwi8K4qS_JvgcU9tS1BBXzQ/edit?usp=sharing) The Best of… Team L Telrad, Warrior: Team L’s first spotlight falls on Telrad, played by Barrett. “Following his character arc through RP and in map dialogue is some of the best writing I've read in the team. Following Telrad as a man with a strong moral compass finding himself amidst a band of outlaws, thieves and other devils; it was a character that seemed out of place but feels integral to the team now. His RPs with Astrid are a particular highlight.” Karina's Subplot: Rather than an individual moment, they’ll also send-up to the general dynamics of this subplot. Through genuine character growth and interactions, Karina has basically proposed a joint place to go for a number of people on this band of misfits; at the very least, she’s going to get together with Rickard, which with in turn they’ll pseudo-adopt Sandre. She’s also given a future stay-in job offer to Aikah. Aikah, mesmerizing myrmidon: And, last but not least, the spotlight shines on Aikah, mesmerizing myrmidon. A hot-blooded former soldier whose love of battle turns her into a glass-cannon beast on the battlefield. The Best of… Team N The April 4th incident, Frog+Porn: If it won best shitpost, it’s clearly got to make the Best Of, with fond and mocking memories for the team. “To this day I still know DanK better as Don’t Forget Frog Posted Porn.” We shan’t, DanK. We’ll never forget. Verdant Genesis’s flavor text: Across the year, they’ve also gotten a lot of fun out of Verdant Genesis’s flavor text for battles and events. (https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/360166736772988929/546460483344007179/unknown-3.png?width=968&height=487) and (https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/360166736772988929/546460499466780673/unknown-4.png?width=968&height=620) for example! “Everything this person writes gives me life” is what one player had to say on the place of honor for these texts. Mitchell: “From his quips during turns, to him threatening to choke slam a man during a story RP, to the team-wide memeing about the guy, he’s just the best.” The Best of...Team O Suave Laven (meets his match): We begin with flirting and heartbreak in Team O’s first entry.(https://www.reddit.com/Reddit_Emblem/comments/7ylziq/team_o_homebase_two_grove_of_the_great_old/duiv22u/) Laven is managing to court Lady Arthura when he messes up big time not soon after (thanks to another character, Cheshire), destroying her trust in him and significantly bumming the guy out. Karen hit her first enemy: For gameplay moments, they choose to honor when Karen hit her first enemy in a map Bloodmoon (after refusing to fight all other maps, and rather support others, or lockpick)! She did it to protect another character Saltbeard, and was felled after being turned to stone by a Medusa. Saltbeard grieved for her Felix the Maid: And on a lighter note, they send up to the time Felix is ordered to dress up as a maid due to losing a bet. He is then ordered to serve half of Team O as the maid. (https://pastebin.com/jm6wEQ1f ) The Best of… Team P Kara and Torsten's Rerolls: Team P’s first send-up is to Kara and Torsten have to use their rerolls because they both crit the boss their subteam is trying to capture. Then the one who is trying to capture the boss misses, uses a rerolls and crits, too. Kara Crits a Boss Cailean was Trying to Capture: There’s another gameplay moment to tell of in P, too! As Cailean is about to capture a boss with manacles and The Bottle™, mainly to piss Kara off, Kara comes in and crits the boss to death instead of only weakening it. They reroll her crit. She crits yet again. Cailean is disappointed. The Thot patrol (Andre, Jericho, and Nicolas) holding Niall hostage in an RP for 5 IRL months: While there’s not much comment about what the RP was about, anything that takes up nearly half the year probably has to stand out as an important part of the year. The Best of… Team S "How To Kill a God: Drunk Edition": It’s a bit of a long document to read through, but the S madness "How To Kill a God: Drunk Edition" definitely deserves a place in the spotlight! They summary and chat logs are in the link helpfully provided, so check it out, because it’s some madness. (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RseENLbWQkSKl2-VsdvlyelZyKJHgmhFwlO64vcg4AA/edit?usp=sharing) Sielde tries to fight a full map of enemies alone while Marvin tries to stop him: It’s a hard act to follow getting drunk, killing a god, and starting a team split, but Team S has more to tell with Sielde trying to fight a full map of enemies alone while Marvin tries to stop him. (https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/459179604767277066/540235824332013588/Screenshot_2019-01-30_at_10.17.32_AM.png) (https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/459179604767277066/540235842304868355/Screenshot_2019-01-30_at_10.17.55_AM.png?width=400&height=272) They started the next map captured. Asher talks smack, gets smacked: Death and fun gameplay abounds, as S gives its final nod to how during Chapter 3, Asher smack talked an ogre and got crit to death (https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/459179604767277066/540233717185118219/Screenshot_2019-01-30_at_10.13.07_AM.png?width=400&height=286) The Best of… Team T Euan dodging a 96% hit on a Wyvern after bragging how he can beat a Wyvern with his fists: This stands triumphant as Team T’s first entry, after bragging about how it could beat the Best of with its fist. "She forgot about childbirth": To follow that up, they’d like to share the tale of a meme they call "She forgot about childbirth." So basically Frog had a crazy theory that Manilus and Lucilia had a child they didn’t know about somehow. This lead to Frog saying Lucilia somehow forgot the child she gave birth to. After saying this, he immediately drank Fireball and tried to make sense of it. BaRP: And last but not least, the BaRP with Macio Donnadieu, Saelas Jin, Desiree, Manilius. After successfully stopping a riot and completing their training, Manillius takes out his troops for a night out drinking. What starts as a silly drinking game slowly begins to evolve into revealing much more serious emotions on all ends. As a small special notice, for fighting it out to the very end, a gentle nod to Anya, Thief. The Best of… Team U "Maybe I should nerf support bonuses" : For their first, and perhaps only serious (well, semi-serious) spotlight, Team U shares a tale of love and impromptu nerfs. Frog having to nerf Supports after Kyros with his Auto-A Support solo'd half the enemies in the map. In chapter 1 of Team U-1, the team was faced with a challenge. A combination of approaching reinforcements and the lack of actual tanky units on the team made it potentially chapter ending...except there was one saving grace. A rank support bonuses were busted as hell, and our Lord Kyros had an auto A rank with his Tialian wife, Aislen. So, a pasty man with a book, standing in a forest, took on almost half the chapter's units because his wife was behind him, giving him encouragement. Now that's the power of love. A power that very much needed a nerf. Fuck Frog: Errors are a natural part of Reddit Emblem, and Team U would like to give a send-up to their cry for those moments. When Frog’s doing them, anyway. Fuck Frog which is, as a player put it, “What we say when Frog fucks up.” The fact they had to make a second server to contain their pins: That’s a wide library of memes that requires special service and conservation, marking in its own way the progress of a year’s worth of weird in-jokes. I hope you all had a fun year in Reddit Emblem. Let’s enjoy the next one, too!
The retinue was nothing too flashy only 30 soldiers that accompanied the three Bracken children. All were emblazoned with the crimson stallion of House Bracken. Aren sat atop his own horse as they neared the walls of King’s Landing. In truth, he had never been to the capitol before and was rather excited. Keira was riding beside him upon her own horse, their son Brod sat in her lap gazing wide-eyed at the city walls as they loomed ever closer. “Da’, why they so big?” Little Brod asked pointing a pudgy finger at the seemingly “miles-high-wall”. He had only been in the world for five years and just recently Brod had been pelting questions such as this to Aren. He looked at Brod who was now leaning on his mother’s stomach looking at the sky. I expect a question about clouds will be next. He thought humorously, then decided to answer his son’s question. “Well, this city is considered a treasure in our land. Many people would want to take our treasure away.’ Aren cooed to his young son who continued with his father’s answer. “Bad people?” Brod was now looking at his father, his head cocked sideways. “Yes, Brod. Bad people. That is why these walls are so high, to keep the bad people out.” Aren finished, looking back towards the walls. Soon they would be passing under them, coming through the Gate of the Gods as the older soldiers called it. Those who had passed through or came to the capitol once before. “Likely we are the last ones to see it, no thanks to you. I bet all of the other houses arrived a day earlier or more than us.” Aren had not seen his sister Barba ride up next to him, she was sneering. “If you hadn’t had wanted to stop at the Ivy Inn, we likely would have arrived last night!” Barba finished her jest, kicking one leg out from her stirrup and throwing it into Aren’s shin. “Hey! Cut it out! I was tired, okay?” Aren pleaded sarcastically towards his younger sister. “It should be Nyra and I that complain of our arses being sore or tired. Not the heir to the family, and an anointed knight at that!” Barba jested even less now. It seemed some part of her was actually angry for the sudden stop the day before. This was something Aren could not see, he was not sharp of mind nor perception and shrugged her off as still joking. Brod was giggling now, kicking his own feet in the air as he had seen his aunt done. Keira held him firmly, asking him to stop, that he would scare the horse. Brod payed no attention at all, and looked off towards his aunt Barba seeing if their was something else he could copy from her. But she was already whirling her horse around, and riding towards the back of their formation. This saddened Brod, but he soon forgot about it as many children do. He decided he would ask his father more questions. Barba finally got back to her earlier position alongside her younger sister Nyra. They had both been speaking beforehand of what they wanted out of this trip to the capitol. Neither of them were like Aren. They were keenly perceptive and quite witty. “What were we speaking of again?” Barba asked, her braid flopping against the back of her head as her courser came in from a hard gallop to a trot. Nyra rolled her brown eyes at her sister. Between them, Barba was far more clever but Nyra possessed the greater memory. “I told you that I wanted to see the shipyard and the docks. Not only that, but the ocean.” Nyra said looking off as if she could see it now instead of the trees on either side of them. Her light brown hair blew as a gust of wind swiveled its way through the treeline. Nyra couldn’t help but close her eyes and let it rush over her in calming ecstasy. Barba giggled a little to herself. She might have been older than Nyra, but sometimes she felt like Nyra was near father’s age. At least, emotionally. “That’s an easily achievable goal. Is there anything else?” Barba asked trying to pry more odd notions from her younger sister. Nyra stroked a hand through her hair in deep thought. “I would like to ask some of the smallfolk here what their life is like.” Nyra said, putting her finger in the air as if she had discovered one of her greatest ideas yet. Some of their guards nearby laughed at Nyra’s words. It seemed they had partially been listening besides just guarding. Nyra disregarded them completely, nodding at her older sister with a wide grin. Nyra was attractive for a girl of ten and nine. However, Barba, who was one and twenty was considered absolutely beautiful. When she smiled, it seemed to make everyone smile. Their father had been trying to make marriage agreements for her for what seemed like years. “Well..just be sure to take some of that lot with you.” She motioned towards the chuckling guards who suddenly stopped when they were pointed at by the Lady Barba. “As for me, I would like to find a handsome unwed Lord from either the Westerlands or the North. As long as they were handsome” She ended with a sly smile towards her sister who smiled in return. They were now passing under the walls, coming through the gate. Before anything, the first thing that hit them was the smell. Nyra wrinkled her nose, Barba recoiled in her saddle and Aren continued on answering his son’s questions. One of which would likely be about the foul smell. They had finally arrived.
I've done pretty well handicapping races on and off for the past few years, bur I'm interested in your thoughts on different tracks or circuits. I always won pretty consistently when I stuck with one track and follow'd their season. I've been busy with work so I'm just getting into the spring/summer now and I'm thinking of going with Woodbine bc it was good to me last year and the take is low. I followed Santa Anita the year before and they have the breeders cup is there takeout isn't bad either. I want to like NYRA bc I live nearby but I don't like betting their tracks. I would appreciate anyone's thoughts on different tracks and also betting aside which track is the most worthwhile to follow cal./ky? Thank you!
The dosage profile most handicappers wants to follow today is severely flawed. It is that way because since the original chef-de-race sires were released, there may have been a dozen added from more than 500,000 possibilities, and this includes Mr Prospector and Alydar. Since a profile must have a fairly equal balance of sprinters to distance horse to come close to be accurate, anyone can see the problem. I researched the triple crown races from the 1960 to current and there have been 22 horses that have not qualified based on the 4.00 DI and 1.25 CD theory. 10 of those occurred in the Preakness which technically the DI should be on the high side and even slightly over, 5 in the Belmont and 7 in the Ky Derby, including the last 3 derby winners. The system has been broken 15 times since 1990, giving further evidence is it due more to updates than any other factor. Before then, it was broken 7 times including 5 times in the Preakness, twice in the Belmont and none in the Ky Derby. A few of these races were not really eligible for the system due to the natural of the tracks, which stipulates for fast tracks only. Starting in 1960, Greek Money was the first to break the dosage in the 1962 Preakness. Information on him is limited but it looks like the Preakness Stakes was his longest win but also he won mostly on grass. His grand sire was Hyperion who was better known as a grass sire but is in the pedigree of at least a dozen Ky Derby winners. His broodmare sire was Nimbus, a son of Nearco, who won the English 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby on grass. However, he sired little as a stallion and should not have been a chef-de-race. But his dam comes from an important dam line and while fillies are not considered in dosage, she probably is the most likely reason Greek Money broke the dosage. Damascus was the second to break dosage and he did so in both the 1967 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. He also would later win the Travers Stakes at 1 1/4 miles and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, ran then at 2 miles against older horses. just to mention a couple of races. His sire, Sword Dancer, also won the Belmont Stakes, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 3 YO among his many wins and was one of the stoutest bred horse you will ever see. He also sired many with distance capabilities and though he was a better turf sire, there is not one good reason he would not sire a distance loving son. Then add Phalaris, Selene, and Blue Larkspur, all three 5x4 inbred into Damascus, and you have the making of a distance loving horse. Phalaris, back then, is what Nearco is today and actually is the sire line of Nearco and many more. Selene was St Simon's best producing grand daughter whose two full brothers sons in Damascus pedigree is grand sire of Tom Fool(sire of Buckpasser and Tim Tam) and great grand sire of Native Dancer. She is also the dam of Hyperion. Dosage simply missed one on this one because pedigree is definitely there. Master Derby was next in the 1975 Preakness to break the dosage and according to dosage was the most speed oriented of them all. His sire, Dust Commander, won the 1970 Ky Derby becoming the first grand son of Bold Ruler to win the Ky Derby. His broodmare sire, Royal Coinage, was a champion 2 YO sprinter but also sired Venetian Way, who won the 1960 Ky Derby. However, this sire line was better at siring sprinters than distance type runners and since he is sire of the dam, it should have affected his pedigree pretty considerably. The 3rd dam is a daughter of Crafty Admiral, whose grand sire is sire of three Ky Derby winners and a TC winner and his broodmare sire is none other than War Admiral, also a TC winner. Since I believe the dam has the most influence in a pedigree, I have to agree that he should be over but not near as much or as speed oriented as they are saying. Aloma's Ruler was next in the 1982 Preakness S. His sire, Iron Ruler, tried against the best throughout his career and ran 2nd four straight times in top preps for the Ky Derby before his owner decided to pass and wait for the Preakness. Since he should have needed help getting that little bit of extra distance, he was bred to a daughter of Native Charger, a G1 winning son of Native Dancer. Aloma's Ruler's second dam complete in all the big filly races of her time, though they were not graded back then, including a close 2nd in the 1 1/2 mile CCA Oaks. He should have been borderline for the distance, at worst, but dosage placed him significantly over, so I would have to disagree with this finding. Conquistador Cielo was next in a muddy edition of the Belmont. He too had a fairly high dosage but one of the main rules of dosage is it does not consider anything but a fast dirt track. He was a son of Mr Prospector who has always been known for passing on his mud loving ability. Conquistador Cielo became Mr Prospector's first foal that ever won at 1 1/4 mile or further and the reason is in the dam family. Conquistador Cielo's broodmare sire, Bold Commander, a son of Bold Ruler, sired 1970 Ky Derby winner Dust Commander. His third dam was a daughter of Tim Tam, who was on his way to victory in the Belmont S to complete a TC sweep when he snapped his sesamoid bone a few yards from the finish and finished 2nd. Fourth Dam, Dustwhirl, is a full sister to TC winner Whirlaway and was a top producer in her own right. The Belmont was the only time Conquistador Cielo ever won at 1 1/4 miles or further, so I would have to agree with dosage on this one. Snow Chief was next in the 1986 Preakness Stakes. Dosage said he could not successfully negotiate a 1 1/4 mile in top company and he hit that imaginary brick wall in the Ky Derby and finished 11th as the heavy favorite. He had beaten Ferdinand the only two times they met before the Ky Derby, in the Hollywood Futurity & Santa Anita Derby, but Ferdinand got the biggest prize in the Ky Derby. Snow Chief came back in The Preakness and won easily by 6 lengths. Both his sire Reflected Glory and broodmare sire Snow Sporting came from sire lines that produced many top distance runners. Apparently they did not sire enough to warrant consideration to be a chef-de-race and the dam line was slightly tilt towards speed, also. So I will be neutral on this one, but tend to agree with assessment. Prairie Bayou was next in the 1993 Preakness. Prairie Bayou ran nothing like his sire, Little Missouri, who liked to get the lead and put others to sleep with a slow pace. His broodmare sire, Wavering Monarch, did his best running from slightly off the pace but he is the sire of Maria's Mon, who had a similar style to his sire but has sired two Ky Derby winners. However, Prairie Bayou's trainer seemed to recognized the dam is inbred to Tom Fool's two best sons, Buckpasser and Tim Tam(near TC winner) who both had a style he employed. Prairie Bayou had finished a fast closing second in the Ky Derby as the leader of that year's 3 YO crop, so the Preakness was no real surprise. Unfortunately, he broke a cannon bone in the Belmont Stakes and had to be put down. And since Wavering Monarch's dam is inbred to supreme and cluster mare La Troienne, who also is the sixth dam in the female family, I would tend to disagree with the final assessment. Just proof that dams do mean a lot to pedigrees. Louis Quatorze is next as winner in the 1996 Preakness. His sire, Sovereign Dancer, is a son of Northern Dancer whose dam, Bold Princess, is a daughter of Bold Ruler. Sovereign Dancer is bred throughout his pedigree with racing royalty but did not display that on the track or at breeding, other than being sire of Gate Dancer. Louis Quatorze's broodmare sire, On To Glory, was a half brother to Ruffian, and showed promise but ended up being an average sire and runner at best in the end. His daughter, On To Royalty, was by far his best running foal and producer, so she definitely had influence in the way Louis Quatorze ran. But I will agree with dosage assessment, his speed should have been a little high. Real Quiet is next as winner of the 1998 Ky Derby and Preakness and just missed winning a triple crown. Real Quiet's sire was Quiet American, a son of Fappiano, who was a late developing runner who stunned the bettors when he came from last and easily won the G1 NYRA Mile H(now Cigar Mile H)as a 5 YO, breaking the track record in the process. Quiet American's broodmare sire, Dr Fager, owns the world record for a mile on dirt, set while carrying 134 lbs. His 2nd dam Quiet Charm, is also 2nd dam of Dare And Go, the horse responsible for snapping Cigar's 16 race winning streak. Real Quiet's broodmare sire is Believe It, third in the Ky Derby and Preakness to Affirmed and Alydar. But where he really picks up class and distance capabilities starts at his 2nd dam, Meadow Blue, a full sister to near TC winner Majestic Prince. His 4th dam, Your Hostess, is a full sister to Your Host, who is best known as sire of 5 Time US Champion Kelso. So I absolutely totally disagree with dosage and its profiling on this one. This one and the next one I will list convinced me the dosage system was flawed and if I wanted to use breeding, I would have to research it myself. It took me a while to figure out how, but that is what I now require before betting. Charismatic won the 1999 Ky Derby and Preakness and he is another one whose TC was denied due to injury after seemingly home free. Charismatic's sire Summer Squall, is a 1/2 to A.P. Indy and ran 2nd in the 1990 Ky Derby to Unbridled before winning the Preakness, beating that same rival. Charismatic's broodmare sire, Drone, won all 4 of his starts before being injured and retired. Drone's sire, Sir Gaylord, was a 1/2 brother to Secretariat and his best son, Sir Ivor, was a champion in Europe and bred on the same line as Drone. With sires of Foolish Pleasure and Native Dancer in the dam line, along with being inbred 5x5 to Mahmoud, Charismatic's pedigree was screaming for more distance, definitely not less. Simply cannot fathom why dosage says he is over on dosage and would prefer lesser distance. Commendable won the 2000 Belmont Stakes by setting a slow pace and then having just enough left to hold off Ky Derby 2nd Aptitude. Commendable's sire Gone West, was a high class runner whose best distances top out at 1 1/16 miles, but he ran against the best of his year which included Alysheba, Bet Twice, Lost Code, Gulch and Cryptoclearance. He was best known for siring sprinters but occasionally could sire a decent distance turf horse. His bloodlines hinted that he should be able to, too. Commendable's broodmare sire, In Reality, also was best known for sprinters to mid distances horse. However, Commendable's dam, Brought Twice, is a 1/2 sister to Fappiano and they hail from Cequillo dam line, a daughter of Princequillo out of Boldness by Mahmoud. Despite the presence of Cequillo, I feel Commendable pedigree was tilted a little too much towards speed, so I would have to agree with dosage assessment. Sarava won the 2002 Belmont Stakes as the longest long shot in Belmont Stakes history at 70-1. Sarava's sire Wild Again won the inaugural running of the BC Classic beating Slew O' Gold and Gate Dancer after a three way battle between these for the length of the stretch. However, Wild Again, like most of his foals, seem to enjoy going 1 1/8 miles much more than the classic distance, with the exception of Milwaukee Brew. Sarava's broodmare sire, Deputy Minister, was Canada's 2 YO champion mostly because of his sprinting abilities and he continued to prove he was better at sprinting through his career. Deputy Minister did sire a couple of fillies who were U.S. champions and loved to run but for the most part, his foals loved mid distances the best. Sarava dam family is full of sprint type mares. So I will have to agree with this assessment based on dosage. Giacomo pulled off a huge upset in the 2005 Ky Derby. Giacomo's sire, Holy Bull, won 13 of 16 lifetime starts but only one at 1 1/4 miles and that being the Travers Stakes. He was the beaten favorite in the Ky Derby when he stumbled at the start. He never lost when he broke first but also never hit the board when he didn't. Holy Bull had two separate influences of major distance sire of Mahmoud, the first his son The Axe II and second Grey Dawn II, a son of his daughter Polomia. Giacomo's broodmare sire, Stop The Music, is one of many from the Hail To Reason sire line but was unfortunate to be born the same year as Secretariat. Stop The Music was award the win in the Champagne Stakes after Secretariat tried to savage him as he was going by, one of only 2 losses for Secretariat as a 2 YO. Stop The Music's best son, Temperence Hill upset Genuine Risk in the Belmont Stakes at odds of 53.40-1. Since he crosses with Prince Bio, a close relative of Princequillo, on the dam side, I would think he would be under on dosage. But he is also one the pedigree experts can not be faulted for missing. Prince Bio was to Europe what Princequillo was to the U.S. A Distance Loving Sire. Mine That Bird pulled off a major upset at 50-1 in the 2009 Ky Derby on a sloppy track. Mine That Bird's sire Birdstone, won the 2004 Belmont Stakes, foiling Smarty Jones attempt at a TC at odds of 36-1. Birdstone's sire Grindstone also won the Ky Derby in 1996, as did his sire Unbridled in 1990. Mine That Bird's broodmare sire is Smart Strike, the sire of both Curlin and Lookin At Lucky. While Smart Strike was a solid runner, he was even a much better sire and his line is starting to really spread out. My take on his pedigree is this is another dosage had no business missing, based on the sire records of both the sire line and broodmare sire line. Dosage is supposed to be about pedigree but when you omit two top lines, it will not be successful for too long. It was already flawed by not considering dams. American Pharoah won the TC in 2014 as the favorite. His sire, Pioneerof The Nile ran 2nd in the 2009 Ky Derby and his sire Empire Maker ran 2nd in the 2004 Ky Derby before foiling Funny Cide's TC bid in the Belmont. American Pharoah's broodmare sire Yankee Gentleman was a minor state bred winning son of Storm Cat. However, his dam, Key Phase showed a little ability winning 5 of 6 starts, including the G1 Santa Monica at 7 furlongs. But other than that, his female family is one of the few families I have seen with no major stakes winner through five generations. So I would have to agree with dosage on this one, but actually believe his DI should be even higher. He was be beneficiary of what turned out to be a weak crop. Nyquist won the Ky Derby in 2015 as the favorite. His sire, Uncle Mo, was a miler during his racing career but won the BC Juvenile Dirt at a 1 1/16, mostly because of his high class but also most were still developing and had yet to catch up. He was leading first crop sire, but most top out at around 1 1/16 mile, except this one. Nyquist broodmare sire, Forestry, was a son of Storm Cat whose biggest win came in the 7 furlongs G1 King's Bishop. Forestry's dam, Shared Interest won the G1 Ruffian at 5 and ran second in two more G1's. Her third dam, Sequence, is also the second dam of Mr Prospector. Most of Nyquist's dam family won a stake, but most were what look like sprints. His pedigree, top and bottom, is much better than American Pharoah, but still tilted a little too much towards speed. Nyquist breaking the dosage makes a lot more sense than the horse above does. Always Dreaming won the 2017 Ky Derby on a sloppy track. Always Dreaming sire, Bodemeister ran second in the 2012 Ky Derby And Preakness. However, I really believe he would have been a much better horse if allowed to rate. He is bred too good to tinker with his best running style. Always Dreaming's broodmare sire In Excess is also grand sire of Uncle Mo. So I expect Always Dreaming's best distance will be around a mile, much like Uncle Mo. Always Dreaming's dam, Above Perfection, was a G3 winning sprinter that ran second in the G1 Prioress Stakes. So I agree with the assessment of dosage on this one. I believe he was more a beneficiary of a sloppy track more than talent and I believe his three races since points that out.
Irish War Cry Likely Belmont-Bound After Fair Hill Move By Alicia Wincze Hughes @BH_AHughes
Trainer Graham Motion kept looking for reasons to go elsewhere. Irish War Cry kept arguing that the van ride to New York next week was one worth taking. The latter member of that duo has all but officially won out, with the last bit of convincing coming on a picturesque morning at Fair Hill Training Center June 3. After the multiple graded stakes-winning son of Curlin cooled out following a six-furlong move in company with stablemate Ascend Saturday, Motion declared Irish War Cry a likely contender for the June 10 Belmont Stakes (G1), pending final approval from owner and breeder Isabelle de Tomaso. Working to the outside of stakes winner Ascend, Irish War Cry clocked the distance in 1:14 flat, his second timed move since he finished 10th in the May 6 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1). After watching the chestnut colt flatten out in the lane during the first leg of the Triple Crown, Motion's gut inclination was to write off the rest of the classics and freshen the New Jersey-bred colt toward a homecoming run in the Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1) this summer. Reflection and evaluation has swayed the horseman back to the other side of pendulum. As long as Irish War Cry emerges from his work in good order, Motion feels he would be doing his charge a disservice if he didn't give him the opportunity to show his best in the 12-furlong test. "I haven't spoken to Isabelle yet this morning, but right now my inclination would be to go, as long as he comes out of it OK," Motion said. "I'm excited about it. And I've kind of looked for reasons not to do it. I think in the aftermath of the Kentucky Derby I was discouraged and I kind of just forgot about all this. "But having seen him train, having seen the result of the Preakness, I think we need to take a shot. It's a classic and, if he's doing well, I think it's a shame if he's sitting in the barn." Motion was emboldened to reconsider his initial stance after Cloud Computing, who was a well-beaten third behind Irish War Cry in the Wood Memorial Stakes presented by NYRA Bets (G2), jumped up to best champion Classic Empire by a head in the Preakness Stakes (G1). More than one figure has also opined that the Churchill Downs track had a decided rail bias when the Kentucky Derby was run. Given that Irish War Cry looked like he was making a winning move three-wide on the turn only to have jockey Rajiv Maragh say he suddenly ran out of horse a handful of strides later, Motion is hoping there is some credence to that line of thought—even if he isn't ready to check it off as a viable excuse for the colt's end result. "I hate right after the fact just to come up with a list of excuses. At the end of the day, he was well-beaten," Motion said. "But it is something that is in your mind that is a possibility. I've heard that it wasn't the best part of the track and perhaps that was a factor. "People can say what they like about the Churchill track that day, but it was a very odd track. It wasn't just a wet-sloppy track. It was a sticky track. We walked over it. We know what it was like. Maybe that factors into it and it makes me feel better if others feel that. But I don't know. I can't explain why he didn't run better." Irish War Cry will remain at Fair Hill until June 7, where he will train that morning and then van to Belmont Park. The colt has won four of six starts, including a victory in the Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (G2) in his seasonal bow. Motion also worked multiple grade 1 winner Miss Temple City Saturday on the Fair Hill lawn, where she went six furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
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